Gc1
GOLD hits $3,435 target, Middle East tensions rise againOANDA:XAUUSD rose to a one-week high as weak U.S. inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, while conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand.
OANDA:XAUUSD recently hit a fresh one-week high, extending its rally. Spot gold had risen to $3,435 as of press time, after hitting its highest level since June 5.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation “will continue until this threat is eliminated.” Iranian state TV reported that the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hussein Salami, had been killed. Iran vowed a “harsh counterattack” against Israel and the United States, while other countries said they were not involved in the operation. Gold is trading near an all-time high of $3,500.10, just shy of $60.
Netanyahu said the operation “will last for days to eliminate this threat.” Israel believes the strike killed at least several Iranian nuclear scientists and senior generals, according to a military official. Iranian state TV said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hussein Salami may have been among the dead.
Israel's attack on Iran comes after Netanyahu repeatedly warned of attacking the OPEC oil producer to cripple its nuclear program. US and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to hold a new round of talks on Tehran's nuclear program in Oman on Sunday, but Trump said this week he was less confident a deal could be reached.
OANDA:XAUUSD extended its recent two-day gains as weak U.S. inflation and jobs data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. A report on Thursday showed U.S. producer price inflation remained subdued in May, while another showed jobless claims continued to rise, hitting their highest level since late 2021.
OANDA:XAUUSD has gained 30% this year as investors increasingly turn to gold as a safe-haven asset amid President Trump’s aggressive trade policies and geopolitical tensions, including in Ukraine. Strong demand from central banks and sovereigns has also supported gold prices.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold continues to reach the target of $3,435 after reaching the previous upside target at the base of $3,400.
Currently, the base of $3,400 becomes the nearest support, while other than the resistance of $3,435, there is no resistance ahead to prevent gold from heading towards the all-time high of $3,500.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping upward, still far from the overbought zone, indicating that there is still plenty of room for further upside ahead.
There are no factors that could cause gold to decline during the day, and the notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD
Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3480 - 3478⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3384
→Take Profit 1 3472
↨
→Take Profit 2 3466
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3373 - 3375⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3369
→Take Profit 1 3381
↨
→Take Profit 2 3387
GC - Gold digging for a possible ShortAfter reaching WL2, we saw a sharp pullback followed by an immediate double top. Price failed to reach the centerline of the yellow fork, instead stalling at the 1/4 line.
Then came the break of the lower median line (L-MLH), a pullback to the white WL1—then the drop began.
If this market can’t push to new highs, we’ll likely fall back into the median line set. A pullback to the upper median line (U-MLH), as indicated by the red arrows, is a probable scenario.
Next stop: the white centerline.
I trade tiny. I trade with extremely high risk-reward setups. I’m fine getting stopped out all the time —because I’m hunting huge moves.
I don’t chase. No FOMO.
It’s how I sleep well, make money from trading and keep my stress level very low.
GOLD recovers strongly, market will wait for US CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded strongly in Asian trading on Wednesday (June 11) after a sharp decline in the New York session on Tuesday. The current gold price is around $3,341/ounce, up nearly $20 on the day.
Traders are awaiting the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. Estimates suggest that prices are likely to rise as US households feel the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, keeping interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%."
Economists expect the US CPI to rise to 2.5% year-over-year in May from 2.3%, and the core CPI to rise to 2.9% year-over-year from 2.8%.
OANDA:XAUUSD rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, even as the US and China said they had agreed on a plan to ease trade tensions during talks in London.
According to Bloomberg, easing between the world's two largest economies would be negative for safe-haven assets like gold, and the lack of a decline in gold prices suggests investors are waiting for more developments.
Gold prices have risen more than 25% this year as US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have changed geopolitical dynamics, prompting central banks to buy gold to divest from US assets.
Bloomberg also said investors are looking ahead to Thursday’s US Treasury bond auction and weak demand could boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after receiving support from the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, the important support area noted by readers in the previous editions, gold has recovered once again.
The short-term upside target remains unchanged at $3,371 of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising from 50 is also a good signal for bullish momentum, and the large gap between the overbought area and the RSI shows that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead.
During the day, as long as gold remains above $3,292, it remains bullish in the short term with targets of $3,371 in the short term, more than the raw price point of $3,400. The positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,250
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3380
→Take Profit 1 3368
↨
→Take Profit 2 3362
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3249 - 3251⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3245
→Take Profit 1 3257
↨
→Take Profit 2 3263
XAUUSD: Neutral trade preparing a major breakout.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.070, MACD = 17.020, ADX = 34.480) a direct consequence of the sideways trading between the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. The price action has rebounded on the former LH trendline, validating that it has resumed the long term bullish trend. The pattern that has prevailed so far is a Channel Up, and the current consolidation is similar to its first bottom sequence. We are bullish, aiming again for the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3,420).
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GOLD drops more than 20 USD, US-China negotiationsIn the early morning trading session on Tuesday (June 10), the spot price of OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly dropped sharply from around 3,328 USD/ounce to around 3,305 USD/ounce.
Bloomberg pointed out that the price of gold fell in the early morning trading session in Asia on Tuesday as both sides in the Sino-US trade talks hinted at their willingness to make concessions.
Easing tensions between Washington and Beijing could reduce the appeal of gold
Senior officials from the United States and China launched the second round of trade talks in London, the first round since the Geneva meeting in early May.
On the afternoon of June 9, local time, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. On June 10, local time, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will continue.
The US delegation, led by Treasury Secretary Benjamin Bessant, was also attended by Commerce Secretary Lutnick and US Trade Representative Greer. Bessant told reporters in London that they had a “good meeting,” while Lutnick called the discussions “productive.”
Bloomberg reported that the US side had hinted that it was willing to lift export controls on some technology in exchange for China easing restrictions on rare earth exports.
The easing of tensions in the US-China trade war is the main factor currently putting downward pressure on gold, which has risen more than 26% this year.
Gold traders are also looking ahead to this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to gauge the health of the US economy and predict the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After recovering in yesterday's trading session thanks to support from the confluence of EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, gold has fallen back to test this area in the early trading session today. Gold may continue to face selling pressure in the short term, once the bearish momentum breaks below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, then the short term target will be around $3,250 followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement.
However, up to now, the technical position still shows the possibility of increasing prices with the support from EMA21 with Fibonacci retracement 0.382% has not been broken, the recovery target is still at 3,350 USD in the short term, then 3,371 USD, an important resistance level which is also the price point of Fibonacci retracement 0.236%.
Based on the current position, gold still has a bullish outlook with the possible downside mentioned above, and the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250 USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3371
→Take Profit 1 3359
↨
→Take Profit 2 3353
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3274 - 3276⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3270
→Take Profit 1 3282
↨
→Take Profit 2 3288
XAUUSD rising while Inflation dropping. Historically BULLISH!Gold (XAUUSD) has been practically on a non-stop aggressive rise since the late 2022 Low. What's more interesting is that during this 2.5-year Bull run, the U.S. Inflation Rate (red trend-line) has been on a sharp decline, which is something you wouldn't traditionally expect out of a save haven asset like Gold.
On the contrary, Gold has been historically used as a hedge against high inflation, so when Inflation drops, you would have technically expected for Gold to drop too (and vice versa).
Since 1970, there have only been another 4 (relatively long) time periods when Inflation declined while Gold increased. On all occasions, Gold extended the rise by at least 1 year even when Inflation reversed.
In our opinion, the current divergence looks more like 1970 - 1972 and 2008 - 2009. This suggests that Gold is still within a Bull Cycle and has some more room to rise before a new Bear Cycle starts. Long-term we remain bullish on Gold.
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Weekly Market Forecast: BUY Stock Indices & Oil! Sell Gold! In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 9 - 13th.
Stock Indices are looking more bullish. Valid buys only!
Gold is weak. Sells only until there is a market structure shift upwards.
Oil prices have room to go higher. Buy it.
Silver is a wait and see. Should start to pull back this week, as it closed last week stronger than Gold.
CPI Wednesday. After the news is announced, the market should be very tradeable for the rest of the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 09 - Jun 13]OANDA:XAUUSD fell more than 1% on Friday (June 6) due to the unexpected US non-farm payrolls data for May. Spot gold closed at $3,309.84/oz, up 0.8% on the week.
Although gold failed to break above the $3,400/oz resistance and may fluctuate in the $3,300-$3,400/oz range in the short term, the market's resilience and long-term uptrend remain solid.
Meanwhile, silver and platinum outperformed, hitting 13-year and 3-year highs, respectively, on investment demand and expectations of supply shortages.
Gold prices rose significantly on Monday last week and hovered at highs ahead of the release of non-farm payrolls data from Tuesday to Friday, reaching $3,403.48 an ounce on Thursday.
The latest data showed that the US added 139,000 non-farm payrolls in May, beating market expectations of 130,000, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% and wage growth beat expectations.
This reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near future, pushing the US dollar and US bond yields higher and putting pressure on gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD received initial support above 3,300 USD/ounce, indicating that the market still has buying support, but the resistance level of 3,400 USD/ounce is difficult to overcome in the short term and 3,200 USD/ounce is the main support level, more detailed technical analysis will be sent to readers in the following part of the article. However, since the raw price points are still related to fundamental analysis, I personally think that the price declines can be seen as an opportunity for gold to hold at lower prices, the long-term uptrend is fundamentally unchanged and central bank gold buying and a weaker dollar will continue to support gold prices.
Despite the rise in risk assets such as stocks, gold has shown resilience. Central bank demand for diversified reserves and market risk appetite will continue to support gold prices, underscoring its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Market Background and Outlook
The labor market is slowing steadily and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to wait and see, with the likelihood of a near-term rate cut low. The May CPI data next Wednesday (June 11) will be in focus. If CPI rises, it will push the US Dollar higher and further depress gold prices. If CPI is weak, it could help push gold prices higher.
Geopolitical and trade factors: Trump's call with Xi Jinping on Thursday did not bring any clear progress on trade. If the tariff news worsens, this could boost demand for gold as a safe haven.
On the other hand, the outlook for the Middle East-US, Ukraine-Russia talks is also not getting any better, any negative signs on the geopolitical front next week will also boost gold prices to recover.
Economic data and events next week
Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Thursday: US Producer Price Index (PPI), Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
📌Gold prices fell sharply on Friday as it retested the $3,371 target level, which is the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, but failed to break it. The bearish momentum took gold towards an area where there are several important supports such as the $3,300 price point and the confluence of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level with the 21-day EMA.
Although gold has fallen, its current position still has enough conditions for bullish expectations in the near term. And in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, and in this case, 50 is considered the nearest momentum support.
As long as gold remains in/above the price channel, its main long-term trend is still bullish, in the short term if gold remains above the base price of 3,300 USD, it still has an upside target at 3,371 USD followed by the base price of 3,400 USD.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3449
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3227 - 3229⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3223
GOLD recovers to $3,371, biggest data day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD maintained its intraday recovery trend and the current gold price is around 3,371 USD/ounce, retesting the initial target increase sent to readers in the weekly publication. In this trading day, investors will focus on the US non-farm payroll data, which is expected to trigger major market movements.
Today (Friday), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll data for May. The market expects 130,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
On Wednesday, the ADP jobs report, also known as the “mini-non-farm,” showed the smallest number of jobs created by the U.S. private sector in two years. The report could be a precursor to a negative non-farm payrolls report.
Payroll processor ADP reported on Wednesday that private sector payrolls increased by just 37,000 in May, down from a revised 60,000 in April and below the Dow Jones forecast of 110,000. It was the smallest monthly job gain since March 2023, according to ADP.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week as concerns about the labor market mounted. The data showed initial jobless claims hit 247,000 in the week ended May 31, up 8,000 from the previous week and above the 236,000 expected in a Dow Jones survey.
If non-farm payrolls data released today is much worse than expected, it could weigh on the U.S. dollar and send gold prices soaring.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after making a fresh weekly high and correcting lower yesterday, gold has recovered to reach its initial target at $3,371, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement.
Following the uptrend, gold is likely to head towards the full price point of $3,400 in the short term, rather than $3,435.
Currently, the technical structure has not changed much with the uptrend completely dominating the technical chart. And the notable price points will also be listed as follows.
Support: 3,350 – 3,326 – 3,300USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,435USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3416
→Take Profit 1 3404
↨
→Take Profit 2 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3301 - 3303⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3297
→Take Profit 1 3309
↨
→Take Profit 2 3315
GOLD trades around target of 3,371 USD, positive outlookOANDA:XAUUSD rose significantly, retesting the $3,371 target as weak US economic data and a weaker dollar were the main reasons for the rise in gold prices.
The market is also struggling to cope with growing political and economic uncertainties.
OANDA:XAUUSD recovered from yesterday's session low of $3,343/oz after ISM and ADP reports confirmed a slowdown in the US economy. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4, escalating trade tensions.
Federal Reserve officials remain cautious on easing policy; markets await initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls data for further policy clues.
The first major data release on Wednesday, the ADP jobs report, dubbed the “mini-nonfarm,” showed the number of private jobs created in the United States was the lowest in two years.
Payroll processor ADP reported on Wednesday that private-sector job creation nearly stalled in May, hitting its lowest level in more than two years amid signs of labor market weakness.
Jobs increased by just 37,000 in the month, down from a revised 60,000 in April and below Dow Jones' forecast of 110,000.
This was the lowest monthly job gain since March 2023, according to ADP statistics. Following the ADP private sector jobs report, US President Trump immediately urged Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates in a furious manner.
Trump posted on Truth Social: "ADP data is out!!! Powell, who is 'too late', must cut interest rates now."
Trump's order to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has taken effect, and the White House has confirmed rumors that it has asked trading partners to submit their "best offer" by Wednesday to avoid higher tariffs.
Gold is considered a safe haven from political and economic uncertainty and typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments.
This Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its highly anticipated non-farm payrolls data, with markets expecting 125,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold continues to hit the first bullish target of note to readers in the past 2 weeks at $3,371, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement.
Currently, gold is also trading around this level, with price action above $3,371 opening the door for a new bullish outlook and the next target around $3,400 in the short term.
In terms of momentum, gold still has a lot of room to rise as the RSI is operating above 50 pointing upwards but still far from overbought territory, which should be considered a bullish signal in the coming trading session.
There are no technical factors that suggest the possibility of a decline becoming a specific trend, the declines as long as gold remains within/above the price channel should only be considered as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, the nearest support is the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement and the short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel.
Finally, the bullish outlook for gold prices during the day will be highlighted by the following positions.
Support: 3,350 – 3,326 USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,435 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3416
→Take Profit 1 3404
↨
→Take Profit 2 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3313
GOLD falls then recovers slightly, markets eye jobs dataMainly due to the strengthening of the TVC:DXY , OANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from a near four-week high, with a one-day drop of nearly $30 on Tuesday and a slight recovery in today's Asian trading session on Wednesday, June 4.
DXY rebounded from its lowest level in more than a month hit earlier in the session on Tuesday and ended the day up 0.6%, which put some minor pressure on gold in yesterday's session. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday showed that total job vacancies in the United States reached 7.39 million in April, up from 7.2 million in March. Economists had expected job vacancies in the United States to be 7.1 million in April.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell on Tuesday as a surprise rise in U.S. job vacancies boosted risk appetite and helped the dollar strengthen, according to Bloomberg. The rise in job vacancies encouraged investors to believe that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the threat of U.S. President Trump’s tariff agenda.
Looking ahead, U.S. employment data, including Friday’s May nonfarm payrolls report, could help guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, Bloomberg said. Lower interest rates are generally good for non-interest-bearing gold.
Gold traders will be looking ahead to key employment data, including the ADP and nonfarm payrolls reports, to determine the Fed’s policy path.
In terms of technical structure, there are no changes to the chart or previous analysis so readers can review it in the previous publication.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3416
→Take Profit 1 3404
↨
→Take Profit 2 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3313
XAUUSD: Bouncing off a former Resistance now turned Support.Gold is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.013, MACD = 32.440, ADX = 32.924) as it made a much needed pullback to test the former LH trendline. This is a Resistance turned Support trendline and as the 4H MA50 holds, we expect the breakout to extend to +7.39% from the bottom. TP = 3,485.
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GOLD surges to hit $3,371 target, continues to aim for $3,400OANDA:XAUUSD rose nearly 3% as US President Trump's tariff threats ratcheted up trade tensions, spurring investor demand for safe-haven assets and sending the dollar sharply lower.
US President Trump said on Friday he would raise tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the US to 50% from the current 25% starting June 4. This has once again disrupted international trade, Reuters reported.
A European Commission spokesperson expressed deep regret over the US announcement that it would raise tariffs and said the EU was ready to take countermeasures.
Gold prices surged on Monday to a more than four-week high and continued to rise early this morning (Tuesday, June 3) as geopolitical risks from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated as US President Donald Trump continued to threaten tariffs. Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, effective June 4, adding to jitters in global markets.
Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack since the war against Ukraine on Sunday, targeting a wide swath of Russian air bases on the eve of a second round of direct talks between the two countries. The drones, hidden in trucks, penetrated deep into Russia and hit strategic airfields as far away as eastern Siberia. At the same time, Moscow launched one of its longest drone and missile strikes on Kiev.
In key US data on Monday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May showed a contraction in business activity. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for May came in at 48.5, down from 48.7 in April, the lowest reading since November.
Investors will also be closely watching comments from Federal Reserve policymakers this week for clues on the path of U.S. interest rates. Gold tends to benefit in low-interest-rate environments and times of geopolitical tension.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After reaching the target increase at 3,371 USD, gold temporarily decreased slightly but overall it has enough conditions to continue to increase in price towards the next target at 3,400 USD in the coming time.
In the short term, gold also formed an upward price channel, which is noted by the price channel, describing the short-term technical trend. Meanwhile, in terms of momentum, RSI is operating above 50, still quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still a lot of room for growth ahead.
For the day, the main outlook for gold is bullish, any pullbacks that fail to break below the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement should be considered only as a short-term correction, or a fresh buying opportunity.
Finally, the short-term bullish trend for gold will be focused again on the following positions.
Support: 3,326 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3416
→Take Profit 1 3404
↨
→Take Profit 2 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3324 - 3326⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3320
→Take Profit 1 3332
↨
→Take Profit 2 3338
Weekly Market Forecast: Monday UPDATES!How accurate were the forecasts for S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures given in the Weekly Market Forecast for this week?
BULLSEYE!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
XAUUSD Critical Lower Highs break-out just happened.Gold (XAUUSD) broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that originated from the April 22 All Time High (ATH) and has basically re-established the long-term bullish trend and confirmed the bullish break-out.
The extension can go as high as 3700, which represents a +18.37% rise from the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) bottom. That is how much the last 1D MA50 (near) test increased (April 07). A Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) may potentially support this uptrend all the way before the next correction.
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GOLD expected to rebound, key trends, jobs data This week, we have the facts that Trump has stirred up the market, Powell has not changed his stance. With the biggest data of the week, the US Non-Farm Payrolls, to be released, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD is expected to rise again after a week of consolidation.
Last Week in News
After weeks of tariff-easing talks that sent U.S. stocks soaring, Wall Street has once again been caught up in the constant flux surrounding Trump’s trade regime. This week, a U.S. court also questioned the legality of the White House’s tariffs on global trading partners as the Trump administration ramps up its policy plans.
Market sentiment took a turn for the worse on Friday following news about tariffs. US media reported that the White House plans to impose broader sanctions on some foreign technology industries. In addition, Trump said that starting next week, tariffs on imported steel will increase from 25% to 50%.
In addition to the tariff headlines, traders also had to contend with weakening US economic data. US consumer spending slowed after recording its strongest month of growth since early 2023 in April.
Here are the events markets will focus on in the new week
• Next week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and several members of the board and voting members will speak.
• Trump met with Powell for the first time in his second term, and Powell continued to emphasize the independence of monetary policy.
The US core PCE inflation rate was 2.1% year-on-year in April, slightly below the expected 2.2%. While that bolsters the case for a rate cut, Fed officials have reiterated their patient stance.
Minutes from the May FOMC meeting confirmed that policymakers considered the current economic situation sufficient to delay policy action. Despite the weakening sentiment, traders are still betting on a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Key Data: Non-farm data in focus this week
The focus of next week’s data will be non-farm payrolls on Friday. The pace of hiring in the US is likely to have slowed in May as households became more cautious, businesses reconsidered investment plans amid shifting trade policies and employers focused on controlling costs.
Economists are forecasting a gain of 125,000 in May, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey, after job gains beat expectations in March and April. That would keep the average gain over the past three months at a solid 162,000. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. Fed officials are also waiting for clarity on how trade and tax policies will affect the economy and inflation, so they are likely to be cautious about the labor market report.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has been mostly sideways despite the volatility over the past week. The sharpest drop saw gold test the $3,250 support level before recovering to close the week around the confluence of the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
On the big picture, gold is still technically bullish with the channel as the main trend, while the near-term supports are the $3,250 level followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained move above $3,300 would be viewed as a positive factor going forward.
On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, which in this case acts as momentum support and is still well away from overbought territory so there is still room for upside. The weekly target is the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level in the short term, rather than the raw price point of $3,400.
As long as gold remains within the channel, its main technical trend is bullish, and any declines that do not take gold below the channel should be considered short-term corrections rather than a specific trend.
Next week, the technical bullish outlook for gold will be focused again on the following positions.
Support: $3,250 – $3,228
Resistance: $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3337 - 3335⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3341
→Take Profit 1 3329
↨
→Take Profit 2 3323
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3246 - 3248⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3242
→Take Profit 1 3254
↨
→Take Profit 2 3260