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XAUUSD Break-out to $2200 or pull-back $2030?Gold (XAUUSD) is rising and has gotten very close to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started in November 2023. As long as it gets rejected within the pattern, it is a sell opportunity targeting $2030, which is above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone and near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. The 1D MACD appears to be in a similar sequence as on July 20 2023, which initiated a strong sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, if Gold breaks and closes above the Channel Up, we will not hesitate to take the loss on the sell and open a buy, as it will have stronger probabilities of imitating the December 04 2023 bullish break-out, which completed a +11.37% rise before correcting as well to the 0.786 Fib and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As a result in that case, our target will be $2200, which would represent a +11.00% rise from the February 14 Low. In fact, +11% rallies have been common in the past 12 months for Gold, delivering 3 such occasions. Each one has corrected to an MA period and the one that has been untouched for longer is the 1D MA200, which by the time of a correction will be very close to the bottom of the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD → Re-test 2085. The distribution is not yet finalized FX:XAUUSD is testing the maximum. After a long consolidation, a distribution phase is formed, which leads to a false breakdown of the intermediate resistance level. What should we wait for next, decline or growth? The distribution phase is clearly demonstrated on the background of volume growth. The price is testing the intermediate level of 2084.5 and forms a false breakdown. The value of the level is big enough, but not enough to turn the market. The 2084 area continues to hold the price, but based on the data on the H1 chart we can assume that gold will test this resistance with the aim of breaking through it, as the distribution phase is not over yet. If the compression to the upper boundary of the consolidation on H1 continues, namely to Friday's high, a breakout and further growth to the next intermediate targets may happen with a high probability. Support levels: 2079,5, 2069.9, 2065 Resistance levels: 2088.4, 2100 The growth is not over, as the realization of the accumulated potential inside the consolidation is not exhausted yet. There is a possibility of correction, but at the break of 2079.5. But still, I stick to the break of resistance and further growth TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
Mar 4th 2024 GC Update - Potentially a start of something bigAnother share from the TTR, this time is a commodity chart - #GC Beautiful move up on Friday! The price has stopped right at the trendline support; there is one more resistance box above it. When/If it is broken, we will see the next trendline tested again, followed by a breakout box. This is a very bullish action as if the price continues to break out, then expect some geopolitical issues to come next, which means the markets could be near its maj top!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TheTradersRoom
GOLD competing against US PCE dataThe U.S. dollar edged higher today, but displayed measured strength amid subdued U.S. Treasury yields. A sense of caution permeated markets as traders anxiously awaited the looming release of the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This economic report can greatly influence the central bank’s monetary policy outlook so it could bring volatility in the days ahead. Forecasts suggest that January's core CPI rose 0.4% m-o-m, resulting in a slight deceleration in the yearly print from 2.9% to 2.8%, a baby step in the right direction. In any case, the substantially higher-than-anticipated CPI and PPI readings for the same period underscore a key point: investors may be underestimating inflation risks, leaving them vulnerable to an upside surprise in tomorrow’s data. A hot PCE report indicating minimal progress on disinflation may prompt Wall Street to scale back bets on the number of rate cuts envisioned for 2024, while increasing the odds of the FOMC delaying its easing cycle to the second half of the year. A hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations should exert upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, boosting the U.S. dollar but weighing on gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rose on Wednesday but encountered resistance around the $2,035 mark, a key technical roadblock where a downtrend line converges with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to firmly protect this ceiling to thwart bullish momentum; any lapse could trigger an upward surge towards $2,065. Alternatively, if sentiment shifts back in favor of sellers and XAU/USD takes a turn to the downside, the first key floor to watch emerges at $2,005, near the 100-day simple moving average. Should selling pressure continue, traders may eye $1,990, followed by $1,995 as potential support levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased despite reduced volatility due to falling dollarWorld gold price stood at 2,032 USD/ounce, equivalent to the price at the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices increased slightly and then decreased when the market received mixed economic information. Specifically, negative information comes from the Conference Board survey results published on February 27 showing that the US consumer confidence index decreased in February to 106.7, down from 110. 90 revised down in January. Consumer optimism fell more than expected as economists forecast 114.8. In particular, the expectations index decreased to 79.8 from 81.5. “An expectation index below 80 typically signals an impending recession,” the report said. On the contrary, the positive data is that the February production index in the US increased from negative 15 points last month to negative 5 points this month and higher than the negative 9 points previously forecast. The US house price index in December decreased from 6.7% to 6.6%. When consumer confidence declines, it will affect the consumption of goods, as well as production. The sharp increase in the manufacturing index shows that the US economy is still recovering positively. Falling house prices will impact the consumer price index as well. This affects the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Economic data is mixed, so investors are still cautious in trading.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
XAUUSD Approaching the top of the Channel Up.Gold / XAUUSD has had the strongest 1D green candle today since December 13 2023 and is approaching the top of the 3 month Channel Up. That is a sell opportunity especially with the 1D RSI entering the overbought region. That has formed the Highs of October 27th and December 1st 2023, which declined by -4.03% and -4.93% respectively. The maximum decline inside this Channel Up has been -4.99% (February 14th 2024), which tested the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Sell and target 2020 and if you want more risk, 2000, which is under the 0.786 Fib and at the bottom of the Channel Up. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TheCryptagon
1
GOLD → Retest of 2050. Can the price go even higher?FX:XAUUSD is breaking through strong resistance and testing the 2050 area, favorably influenced by the fundamental background from Thursday. The market is trying to move into a bullish phase, but globally the price is held back by a huge sideways flat. Idea from 29.02: GOLD → Consolidation is narrowing. The calm before the storm On H4 we see the price trying to form a consolidation above the previously broken trend lines of resistance. Support at 2041 is now playing an important role. Since the opening of the session on Friday, gold tested this area with a false breakdown, after which a bullish impulse was formed and XAU is already testing the resistance 2048. Img: Current situation: resistance breakout on H4 A break of this area will confirm the price going beyond the correction, which may help the upside to 2057-2060. But, a correction from 2048 is possible before a further rise to the above targets, and we should also pay attention to today's news. It is necessary to watch the price reaction to this zone. Resistance Levels: 2047.8 - 2049, 2057 Support levels: 2044, 2041 I expect the growth to continue, because both technically and fundamentally, the market is pointing to it now. But, there may be a fall in the price if the structure of 2044-2041 is broken. In this case, the price may head towards the channel support TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
20
GOLD → Consolidation is narrowing. The calm before the storm FX:XAUUSD is holding strong, yesterday's economic news also supported the price. The price of metal forms numerous retests of resistance, as well as forms a pre-breakdown consolidation. The complexity of the situation is that we have a very narrow range and within this range the market maker will gain liquidity by any means, but sometimes there are prerequisites that do not guarantee, but hint at a possible movement in one direction or another. Numerous retests of resistance and absence of fall after false breakdown of resistance with the subsequent return to the test and formation of pre-breakdown consolidation tell us that the market is ready for growth. But! Today is the news! Be careful! A break of resistance and the level of 2037.1 will form a phase of realization, in this case the price can realize the impulse to 2044-2048. But, if the price falls and breaks 2031, the overall structure will be broken. Resistance levels: 2037.1, trend resistance Support levels: 2034, 2031 Strong consolidation is forming on H4. Breakout of one of the boundaries will form a strong impulse. Now there are prerequisites for the breakout of resistance, it will happen only if there is a signal for the breakout and further confirmation. We continue to wait TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
25
GOLD increased by weak USD and tensions in the Middle EastWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 10.7 USD to 2,034.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,045.5 USD/ounce, up 14.5 USD compared to yesterday morning. After a series of stable days, world gold increased on Friday thanks to the weakening of the USD and increased safe-haven buying due to concerns related to developments in the Middle East. The US Dollar Index recorded its first weekly decline in nearly two months, making bullion priced in greenbacks cheaper for overseas buyers. Gold's recovery in the last trading session of this week was mainly due to the weakness of the greenback. Safe-haven buying also provided a boost to precious metals. However, gold's rise in recent times has been restrained by hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. On Thursday this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that there will be "no rush" to make a decision to cut interest rates. This has reinforced investors' confidence that the US will delay loosening monetary policy until June. In the minutes of the first policy meeting of 2024, most Fed policymakers expressed concern about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon. Recent data showing higher-than-expected U.S. producer and consumer prices also dashed speculation of an early interest rate cut and that added pressure on bullion.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD likely to increase prices sharplyClosing the weekend trading session, world gold price stood at 2,035 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 22 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. For the whole week, gold prices increased by 1.4%. The bulk of gold's gains came on Friday as the precious metal was boosted by safe-haven demand and weakness in the greenback. In the context that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to maintain its interest rate stance, most opinions believe that the gold market is expected to still face risks. However, gold may benefit when the US Central Bank delays loosening monetary policy. The longer the central bank delays, the greater the risk of policy mistakes. Although gold has struggled since the beginning of the year, this expert is still impressed by the strength of this precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD price struggles for directionWith all the excitement this week for the US stock market, and Nvidia in particular, gold has been left on the sidelines waiting for a macro boost. Next week's economic calendar has a host of potential movers with next Wednesday's US Q4 GDP and Thursday's core PCE release the two most likely candidates for a boost. price action. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has been discussing the need to curb excessive optimism regarding interest rate cuts. Initially, the markets predicted around 170 basis points of rate cuts for this year, starting in March. The Fed's plan for three cuts, beginning in the second half of the year, was initially seen as insufficient. However, their persistence and positive data releases have aligned market expectations. Currently, the market predicts a total of 83 basis points in cuts, with the first cut fully priced in for the July 31st meeting. This paring of cut expectations has weighed slightly on gold, capping further upside. Gold has lost around $100/oz. this year and the weekly chart shows a negative trend still in play. A break below $1,984/oz. is needed to keep this trend in place. A break above $2,044/oz. brings $2,070/oz. back into focus.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD Long Idea-This week I've had an overall bullish bias for Gold to head to the PWH after we put in a fractal swing low on the weekly, confluence with wicking below several weekly lows. -Although today's Daily candle close isn't super strong, I'm still leaning towards looking for longs. -Daily candle rejected from the Daily +OB again, and also failed to displace and close below Tuesdays Low. -I am targeting Wednesdays high, and the PWW. -I want to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected, followed by a displacement entry confirmation on M15/M5.
COMEX:GCJ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
GOLD confluent resistance stops the uptrendGold prices lost ground on Monday following a strong performance last Friday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields - a situation that generally diminishes the appeal of the non-interest-bearing asset relative to fixed-income securities. In this context, XAU/USD finished the session around $2,030, slightly below a confluence resistance zone near $2,035. Many investors appeared to adopt a wait-and-see approach on the precious metal at the start of the new week, refraining from making large directional bets for fear of being caught on the wrong side of the trade. This cautious sentiment was likely attributed to an important event on the U.S. economic calendar on Thursday: the release of the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Forecasts suggest January's core PCE increased 0.4% month-over-month, resulting in a slight deceleration of the annual reading from 2.9% to 2.8%. However, traders should brace for the possibility of an upside surprise in the data, echoing the trends observed in the CPI and PPI surveys disclosed earlier this month. This could inject volatility into financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD: LH on the Channel Down formed.Gold has reached the top of the 4H Channel Down pattern, while the 4H MA50 and the 4H MA200 just formed a Golden Cross. Despite that, and as long as the 1D technical outlook isn't bullish (RSI = 54.450, MACD = -0.200, ADX = 28.783) but more importantly the price is inside the Channel Down, the sentiment remains bearish. The 4H RSI is on the same kind of Bearish Divergence as it was on all prior LH tops, which prompts to the strongest sell signal possible on the medium-term aimed at the S2 level (TP = 1,975), potentially a -3.95% decline as the last LL. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by InvestingScope
5
GOLD → The price is coming down again. New targets?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD does not reach the resistance zone. Another strong seller appears on the market. The market pressure is formed and the price of XAU forms a set-up that predicts further decline to the range support. Today at 13:30 the US GDP will be published. Analysts expect GDP to decrease by 1.6%. But based on the general data there is a possibility that the data may be slightly higher than expected, if this happens, it is a positive scenario for the dollar, which will negatively affect the price of gold. Technically, on H1 there is a strong density of resistance and the price breaks the support of the local ascending channel, which plunges the market into a negative phase. Before the news a correction to resistance may follow before further decline. At the moment the target may be the area of 2015 - 2008. Resistance levels: 2031, 2034 Support levels: 2025.8, 2015, 2008 Gold is trading inside the range, the liquidity area on the resistance side has been tested, but the sellers are very aggressive on the background of the growing dollar. The gold price is heading towards the support and there is a high enough chance to see a retest of the lower levels. CAPITALCOM:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
GOLD → Retest of liquidity area before further decline FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is forging a local trend after a small correction on Monday. At the moment, as the prices are trading inside the flat, the target is the area of 2044-2048, from which a decline may follow. On D1 we see two key figures, which play an important role at the moment - resistance 2048 and the descending price channel, which characterizes the whole market at the moment. The price has been heading towards the target 2044-2048 since the opening of the session on Tuesday and with a high probability, within the descending price channel, a retest of the resistance may follow and a false breakout may be formed. Against the background of this movement we have no clear preconditions for resistance breakout, therefore, against the background of flat and descending channel I am waiting for the realization of the scenario "false breakout of resistance with the subsequent price decline to support" Resistance levels: 2044, 2048 Support levels: channel support, 2025 The global role is played by the flat. Within the flat a bearish channel is formed on D1. That is, based on this set-up we can assume that we have a neutral-negative mood. Consequently, after retesting the liquidity area, the price may form a correction to the support TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
19
XAUUSD BEARISH PROBABILITY hello guys , i think xauusd is bearish the market structure on high time frames is brearish todays candle closed as an inverted hammer tommorow will probably be a red candle add to that the price formed a double top pattern the break out of the trendline + key level will cause a price to make a lower low lower then 1980 . DXY has a massive inverted head and shoulder so a positive addition to our technical analysis . keep in mind a bullish probability is possible too a break out of the trendline will cause a run towards 2050. but i am bearish !
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by xAB777
2
XAUUSD One more bearish leg left to 1930.Gold (XAUUSD) maintains its Channel Down status since last December and so far has established the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as the current Support having been nearly tested 2 weeks ago. The current analysis is on the 1W time-frame, which offers a highly reliable long-term outlook. As you can see Gold has been on a highly symmetrical 4-year Channel Up pattern (since December 2019) with the recent top (week of December 04 2023) being the latest Higher High. Even though the natural technical target on such pattern is the bottom of the Channel (0.236 Fibonacci retracement level), it is more likely for the downtrend to stop on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is headed straight for the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which has also been a standard target within this pattern. For us, since there is a Higher Lows trend-line coming straight from the October 31 2022 bottom involved, we will initially target that on the medium-term, on a 193 target and then see if we can short again upon a rebound if the downtrend remains intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
GOLD → Resistance Retest. What are the chances of a FB?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is forming a correction and testing strong downward resistance formed from 2150. The chances of a breakout are a little less than a false breakout, which, at this point in time, we are betting on. On the senior timeframe we can clearly see that the price is testing a strong resistance area. There is no clear trend, something similar to a descending triangle is forming with the boundaries: descending resistance and support area 1980-2000. Technically, even the imposed sanctions on Friday did not show a proper market reaction. On the background of high rates and tight Fed policy, the gold market is still under the pressure of sellers. It is still worth emphasizing 2038.15 and the downside resistance. False breakout and price consolidation below these lines, followed by a downward breakout at 2031.16 may form a price decline to the support of the 2021-2015 range. Resistance levels: red line, 2038, 2042 Support levels: 2031, 2021, 2015 At the moment we are betting on the formation of a false breakdown, as there are more preconditions for this than for the price to break this area. The market is still in a global flat TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
14
GOLD → New reasons for the growing interest in goldFOREXCOM:XAUUSD strengthened last week and closed with +1.2% at 2035.375. Price returns to the flat range that is forming within the uptrend. Let's move a bit away from the local situation and take a look at the global chart. The global uptrend with variable trends indicates a rather huge interest from buyers, which is not subsiding. The pressure on the resistance, which restrains the growth beyond 2100 continues to increase and most likely in the medium term there will be continued attempts to break through 2075 - 2100 and further strengthening towards 2300-2500. As for the range. The market continues to form a global flat on the background of the Fed's tough policy. Buyers are holding back all attempts to fall, which bears are trying to forge on the background of negative news for gold. Let's pay attention to Friday, February 23: Gold receives an unexpected inflow of funds due to the sanctions imposed by the U.S., Canada, the UK and European countries against Russia, the former CIS countries and Asian countries. Against the backdrop of a possible crisis, money is looking for a safe haven and is finding it in gold. Accordingly, the interest to the metal is growing and most likely the price will continue its growth to higher highs. Expectations for the coming week: Flat is forming on D1, after realizing the potential relative to the range support the market gets a target in the form of flat resistance. Important levels are shown on the screenshots above. Fundamentally, the gold market is still under the pressure of sellers, but at the same time the interest in the metal, against the background of geopolitical crisis is growing, which favorably affects the price. In the medium term it is worth considering to prioritize buying, because technically and fundamentally the situation has shifted a bit, but we should not forget that there are no trend rules inside the flat. Price is moving between levels. Resistance levels: 2044.6, 2060, 2065.46 Support levels: Fibo: 0.618, 0.5, 0.382 TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
15
GOLD rising, confluent resistance is about to appearGold rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday (+0.50% to $2,027), holding above the $2,025 mark, supported by falling US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar. The same risk aversion on Wall Street is likely to support the metal's rally. Considering the recent gains, XAU/USD is up over 2% from last week's low near $1,985 after higher-than-expected US inflation figures. Despite the positive performance, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may limit gold price increases in the near term, so caution is warranted. At the beginning of 2024, the prospects for gold bullion look brighter with the assumption that the Fed will take aggressive easing steps this year. However, overly dovish expectations have subsided due to strong US labor market data and stagnant deflation progress. Traders may continue to reduce dovish speculation on the FOMC if incoming information continues to reflect economic strength and strong price pressures. This is because these two factors could encourage policymakers to delay the start of the easing cycle and reduce the magnitude of further rate cuts. There are no major events on the US economic calendar in the coming days, but next week January PCE figures will be released. This report is poised to explain the latest inflation dynamics and provide insight into the Fed's next steps, so traders should keep an eye on it.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD is waiting for salary data and hearingsWorld gold prices are waiting for salary data and the hearing of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in early March. At 8:40 a.m. this morning, February 22, Vietnam time, the world gold price stood at 2,027 USD/ounce, a slight increase of 2 USD/ounce compared to the same time last morning. In the short term, world gold prices may move sideways. World gold prices are waiting for salary data and the hearing of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in early March. Fed officials noted that inflationary pressures eased and economic activity remained strong. According to the minutes, the committee wants more evidence to show that inflation continues to fall to the target level of 2% before making a decision to loosen monetary policy. It is forecasted that gold will likely continue to move sideways in the short term and the information the market is waiting for will be the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report published next week, followed by the payroll and regulatory session. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony in Congress in early March. Tonight, the US continues to release the purchasing management index for the manufacturing, services, and mixed sectors and the first unemployment benefit applications of the week. This will be the data for the Fed to assess the health of the economy. These will be data that impact gold prices in the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD the upward trend in the price of the dollar remains stableMarket participants are looking forward to the release of core PCE data next week, which is expected to cause volatility in the FX market. Consensus estimates forecast a 0.4% rise in January, bringing the annual rate down to 2.7%. Traders should prepare for a potential surprise similar to last week's CPI and PPI reports. Stiff price pressures in the economy, along with solid job creation and strong wage growth, could force the Fed to delay the start of its policy easing cycle until the second half of the year, resulting in little adjustment once the process is underway. A scenario like this could push interest rate expectations in a more hawkish direction compared to their current status. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF GOLD PRICES Gold edged up on Thursday but encountered resistance around $2,030, a key resistance zone where a falling trendline aligns with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers must defend this area strongly to prevent the bulls from reasserting their dominance; failure to do so could result in an increase towards $2,065. On the other hand, if sentiment turns in favor of sellers and the price starts to pull back, support can be identified at $2,005, positioned near the 100-day simple moving average. Further downside pressure may put $1,990 in focus, followed by $1,995.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2