GOLD leaving the previous optimistic positionOn the world market, gold price reached 1,959. Investors await a speech from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for more clues about interest rates. Following gold's sharp rally, some traders have moved away from their previously bullish positions, as market participants assess the risks of a broader conflict in the Middle East, while the downside less prevents cash flow into safe-haven assets.
Gold investors will start looking at economic data, potential action from the US Central Bank, and gold will react based on whatever the data brings. Therefore, it is difficult for gold to gain momentum if data does not show economic weakness. Although October was a historic month for the gold market as the precious metal saw record high closing prices, more factors are needed to create a sustained push in the market.
Gc1
XAUUSD Bearish inside a Channel Down.Gold is trading inside a Channel Down, under the MA50 (4h).
The price recovered today as it made a Lower Low on the Channel's bottom after the RSI gave a Bullish Divergence and the MACD eventually formed a Bullish Cross.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price closes under the Resistance level and the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 1935 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is under a Falling Resistance since October 20th. Sell if it stays under.
2. Further validation for a sell, when the MACD (4h) forms a Bearish Cross.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GOLD | $1950 Key Support Approaches Bears Eye Further DownsideOANDA:XAUUSD PRICE FORECAST:
- Gold Continues its Move Lower as the $1950 Area Comes into Focus.
- DXY Could Resume its Move Lower as Key Resistance Level Holds Firm.
Gold prices are down due to hawkish comments from Fed policymakers, dampening hopes that the Fed is finished. Market participants were hoping for a different tone from Fed Chair Powell at the central bank conference, but he did not address monetary policy. However, there is still a chance he may discuss it tomorrow.
US DOLLAR INDEX RECOVERY FACES KEY RESISTANCE
The Dollar Index is struggling at the 105.63 resistance level, hindering its recovery. Fed policymakers Kashkari and Bowman suggest further rate hikes due to a strong economy. Fed Chair Powell's comments on monetary policy tomorrow will be worth noting. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary numbers on Friday could also impact the US Dollar.
Based on the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for another rate hike by policymakers have not significantly changed. The market still predicts a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the December meeting. It is unlikely that this will change based on the remaining events this week.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Form a technical perspective, Gold continued its decline toward the psychological $1950 level. A break below the $1950 opens the door for a return to $1900 but there will be some key support tests that will need to be navigated first.
The $1930 support are being the most prominent. It did appear as though we may have a golden cross pattern and that may still occur but we it would require a recovery first.
Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:
Resistance levels: 1968.55 - 1980.00 - 2000.00
Support levels: 1950.00 - 1930.00 - 1900.00
GOLD price continues to declineOn the world market, the price of gold reached $1,954. The dollar rose 0.3% after hitting a six-week low in the previous session, making gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. Besides, after increasing so strongly in a short period of time, the gold market shows signs of quietness. Investors are more cautious, so the market needs to be consolidated.
Market analysts said that the gold market is waiting for more dovish signals from the US Central Bank before recovering. Gold prices are consolidating after slipping into overbought territory. Gold rose more than 7% in October as conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. Besides, the gold market is looking for a new catalyst, after quiet trading last weekend.
GOLD | May Get Boost from Macro TrendsOANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK:
- Gold and silver prices have retreated in recent weeks, but their outlook remains constructive
- If bond yields continue to push lower, precious metals could shine heading into 2024
- This article explores XAUUSD key levels to watch this week
Gold prices have fallen in the past few weeks due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The situation has not escalated into a broader conflict involving other countries like Iran or Lebanon. Instead, traders have turned their focus to the bullish stock market, causing a shift away from non-yielding assets.
Despite recent market dynamics, there are reasons to be optimistic about precious metals. One catalyst for their prices could be the pullback in rates, especially if the correction accelerates in the near term.
OANDA:XAUUSD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold has seen a modest retreat in recent days after failing to take out resistance in the $2,010/$2,015 range late last month. If losses deepen in the coming trading sessions, support appears at $1,960, followed by $1,945. While there's potential for the metal to find stability in this area before making a comeback, a breakdown could open the door for a move toward $1,920.
On the other hand, if the bulls engineer a resurgence and propel prices upward, overhead resistance is located at $2,010/$2,015 as mentioned earlier. Upside clearance of this technical barrier would reignite bullish sentiment, setting the stage for a rally towards $2,060. On further strength and sustained momentum, buyers may gain the confidence to challenge this year's high at $2,085.
GOLD precious metals continue to declineToday's world gold price listed on Kitco is at 1,968 USD/ounce, down 11 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning.
Precious metal prices continued to decline as the USD in the international market increased sharply. The DXY index, which measures the movement of the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies, increased from 105 points to 105.7 points.
The USD's strong recovery has taken away gold's appeal for buyers holding other currencies.
Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said the gold market is waiting for more dovish signals from the US Central Bank before recovering. He added that gold prices are consolidating after sliding into the overbought zone. Gold rose more than 7% in October as conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand.
Gold Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)COMEX:GC1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Gold Futures holding bullish consolidation after epic rally since early October due to Middle East tensions triggering a "Flight to Safety" trade + institutional short covering.
Wait & see approach whether Gold will continue to climb higher within ascending parallel channel (green), or capitulate to refill the breakout gap, TBC.
GOLD | $1980 Support Break Eyed, Do Bears Have the Momentum?PRICE FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD :
- Gold consolidates above key support as yields rise and psychological limit gains improve.
- DXY is trying to recover from Friday's sell-off.
Gold prices are consolidating after another attempt at $2000/oz on Friday. Despite the weaker US dollar, we are seeing a slight recovery in US bond yields and an improvement in risk appetite, which will certainly limit gains in the precious commodity.
The $2000/oz level remains a challenge for Gold, despite the weakening Dollar. Gold's safe-haven appeal may be fading. There is growing optimism that conflict in the Middle East can be avoided. Last week, the Fear and Greed index started at 30 and is now at 42.
Gold may be supported by the appeal of holding precious metals and a weaker US dollar. However, to sustain a break above $2000, continued weakness in US data is needed to confirm that the Fed has made up its mind. USD weakness and weaker US fundamentals could push Gold higher.
Improved sentiment and risk appetite could push Gold prices down to $1,950. There is also a $1,843/oz price gap that still needs to be closed, but it could take a long time to do so.
RISK EVENTS AHEAD
Over the next 48 hours, several Federal Reserve policymakers will speak. Fed Chairman Powell will close with comments on both Wednesday and Thursday. It will be interesting to see if there are any efforts to dampen market optimism that the Fed will raise interest rates. It is worth noting the comments of Fed policymaker Thomas Barkin, as he stated that it is too early to make assumptions about the Fed's outlook in December. Two more inflation reports are expected ahead of the Fed meeting, this will be very important.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD
From a technical perspective, Gold needs to maintain support above the $1977-1980 level on the daily timeframe to continue its upward momentum. However, there is notable selling pressure around the $2000/oz mark, as multiple attempts to push prices higher have failed. Friday's daily candle also showed a significant increase in wick, suggesting ongoing selling pressure above and around the $2000/oz mark.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as the daily candle does not close below the $1,968 support zone. It is possible that we could dip slightly below the $1,980 support level before bouncing back from the $1,968 area and towards the psychological level of $2,000/oz. The mixed signals are due to the uncertain macro and geopolitical situation, causing volatility and instability in 2023.
Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:
Resistance levels: 1992.89 - 2000.00 - 2008.00
Support levels: 1977.00 - 1968.00 - 1953.00
GOLD prices on the world market suddenly plummetedThe world gold spot price on the Asian market is around 1,977 USD/ounce, down more than 12 USD/ounce compared to trading at the same time yesterday morning. The price of gold delivered according to the contract also decreased sharply by over 12 USD to 1,984 USD/ounce.
The market welcomes more positive economic information. Specifically, the Japanese economy showed that the October PMI index increased well above the expansion level, reaching 51.6 points, higher than forecast and September's 51.1 points.
Along with that, in Europe, the region's largest economy, Germany, said that factory orders in September increased again, after a decline in August. The increase in September was 0.2%. , much higher than the forecast of minus 1%. Germany's October composite PMI index increased slightly by 45.9 points, higher than the forecast 45.8 points. Germany's October services PMI also increased to 48.2 points, higher than the forecast 48 points.
Investor confidence in the Eurozone market increased from minus 21.9 in October to minus 18.6 this November, higher than the forecast of minus 22.2.
From the above economic information, experts believe that major economies in Europe and Asia continue to show positive signs of recovery as new orders increase. The increase in investor confidence will also help them return to investing in the European economy, helping this region escape the economic downturn as previously forecast.
Experts say that the economy is recovering and the European Central Bank recently signaled that it will increase interest rates one more time to lower the inflation rate to the target level of 2%. The Fed decided to keep interest rates stable last week. This has caused investors to reduce gold speculation and instead buy profitable assets such as stocks and bonds.
XAUUSD: Head and Shoulders targeting the 4H MA200Gold is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe, which is turning bearish (RSI = 44.053, MACD = 0.190, ADX = 23.859) as the price can't stay over the 4H MA50, which has turned flat.
If the price closes under the neckline of the pattern, we will short and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1,935.50), which is slightly over the 4H MA200.
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GOLD | Investors Capitalize on Weak NFPsANALYSIS & OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD
- Weaker US labor data and safe-haven demand boosted gold prices.
- All eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Michigan consumer sentiment.
- XAUUSD may experience some downsides.
OANDA:XAUUSD BASIC CONTEXT
Gold prices rose on the back of a weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed higher unemployment and lower wage growth. This could signal a weaker job market in the region. The Federal Reserve will welcome the data as it addresses concerns about a recession and stagflation. As a result, US Treasury yields and real interest rates fell, making gold more attractive to investors.
The Israel-Hamas war was volatile and supported gold prices as a safe haven. Escalation could increase gold prices. Next week will be quieter but Fed guidance will cause volatility. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials will speak. Michigan consumer sentiment could impact the US dollar.
Price action OANDA:XAUUSD the daily is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern that typically appears after a previous downtrend. In this case, the uptrend negates much of the validity of the pattern but with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory, a pullback may not be out of the question. A longer-term view could see the gold pair pull back after which a potential golden crossover could form, allowing XAUUSD to rally once more.
Resistance levels: 2048.79 - 2000.00 - 1987.42
Support levels: Wedge support - 1950.00
XAUUSD This makes all the difference between bearish and bullishGold has taken a pause on October's enormous rise that was backed by the geopolitical tension in Israel, and formed a Bullish Flag pattern.
The whole pattern from October's low until now looks very much like March 2023.
A Bullish Megaphone with Higher Lows to buy and Higher Highs to sell, led the market to the eventual 2080 peak.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the (1d) candle closes under Resistance (1).
2. Buy if it closes over it.
Targets:
1. 1955 (Rising Support of a symmetrical to March Bullish Megaphone and over MA50 (1d)).
2. 2049 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) got overbought and pulled back. The last two times it did a similar structure was on March 17th and January 13rd. The former extended the rise while the latter had a strong decline to the 1805 level that formed Support (1).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD Channel Up into Head and Shoulders? Which will prevail?Gold (XAUUSD) is heading into today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report trading on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) within a Channel Up pattern. Even though the volatility will be great coming into the report, we should trade this on a candle closing approach.
A 4H candle closing above the 1993.50 Symmetrical Resistance, will be a bullish signal, targeting 2020, which will be a typical +2.70% rise as the previous two bullish legs of the Channel Up.
A 4H candle closing below the 1970 neckline and more importantly the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), will be a bearish signal for us and we will target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1930.
Note that the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. However the previous one on October 27 failed to turn the trend bullish and instead formed the (so far) top of the Channel Up.
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XAUUSD Best and worst case scenarios but both are bearish.Gold / XAUUSD is about to form a Bearish Cross on the 1day RSI.
All previous 1day RSI Bearish Cross formations in the last 12 months have either pulled back near the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels.
With the market showing clear signs of exhaustion from the overbought valuation that is caused by the Israel-Palestine war, we have most likely seen the short term top and a correction is much needed technically.
Sell now and target at least 1935, which besides the 0.382 Fibonacci, will test the 1day MA50.
Previous chart:
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The road higher will be bumpyWhile bullish in the long term, we are still awaiting further pullback in the price of gold after its impressive run above $2,000. Right now, we are paying close attention to support and resistance levels near $2,009, $1,985, and $1,959. If the price of gold manages to hold above $1,985, it will be positive; the same applies to the breakout above $2,000 and resistance near $2,009. However, if the price fails to stay above the mentioned level, and we see more decline in RSI and Stochastic on the daily chart, it will alert us to more downside; in such a case, we would expect gold to drop below $1,960 (and maybe even to as low as $1,925). Yet, regardless of our opinions, it is important to note that there is a FOMC meeting scheduled for today, which can have a volatile impact (to either side) on the price depending on the FED’s decision and the chairman's tone during the press conference.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover below 70 points, which raises our suspicion (though it still could be just a fakeout).
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD Megaphone bottom buy but sell if it breaks.Gold is trading on a Rising Megaphone inside a Channel Up, both powerful bullish patterns.
All 3 Lows prior have been priced under the MA50 (1h) and on the Rising Support.
The MA200 (1h) has been supporting all the way back since the October 8th breakout due to the war.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price crosses under the MA50 (1h).
2. Sell if it crosses under the MA200 (1h).
Targets:
1. 2030 (Rising Resistance).
2. 1955 (slighty over Support 1, which is the level that showed the strongest buying strength recently).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) has its own Buy Zone to consider where the Megaphone bottoms where priced.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD: Bullish inside Channel Up. Bearish under it.Gold turned again marginally overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.196, MACD = 25.640, ADX = 45.356) as it managed to stay supported inside the Channel Up pattern of October, over the 4H MA50 as well. Even though Gold's price action this past month took many traders by surprise, its price action is really that simple, a technical Channel Up, which keeps the trend bullish inside it (TP = 2,055) targeting the 3.5 Fibonacci extension (like the October 13th HH) or if it crosses under the 4H MA50, bearish targeting the 4h MA200 and 0.5 Fibonacci global retracement level (TP = 1,922.50).
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XAUUSD High chances for a short-term pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) is having an remarkable 3 week rally after a technically flawless hit-and-rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the week of October 02. Obviously, this rally has been stretched by the geopolitical unrest in Middle East and isn't purely technical on its full range, but besides the small fundamental correction we should see once peace is restored, there are a few important conclusions we can make from similar technical situations in the recent past.
For the past +3 years (since the August 2020 High), Gold has seen another 6 similar rallies (+10.53% to +14.12%). Of those 6 only 2 formed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, such as the rally we are currently at. Even the 3 rallies after the September 26 2022 bottom that were on an uptrend, delivered short-term corrections to at lest the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This time the 0.382 Fibonacci level is marginally below 1940 and can be your target.
If the current rally is indeed the start of a new multi-month bullish sequence to new All Time Highs (ATH), then a hit-and-rebound at 1940 would be ideal technically, as it will test successfully the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the standard Support level during long-term uptrends.
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GOLD : Here is where YOU BUY , technical & fundamental analysisi am still very bullish biased towards gold i believe you should not be looking for anykind of selling trades right now since you are against a strong trend. but the day we hear a cease fire situation you should forget all of this and look for sells.
Bullish on Gold FuturesHello everyone,
After breaking an important psychological level, and optimism of bonds higher, Gold seems poised for stability at current levels and may continue higher.
Being a classic 'safe haven' Investment, it's not surprising that currently investors will be looking to Gold.
Plenty of room for Intra-Day Traders to do well right now.
Happy Trading!
gold 4hour = if last high break, gold will go upper I think gold is sell now , see daily chart AC indicator , it is red = down trend will come if high not break
if you have open sell , 100% put SL or hedge buystop on high ( if buystop never close it, gold main trend is up, if you close it and gold go upper,you will 0.00 ...)
my orders = I have sell (I open after pinbar with SL in pinbar high + buystop in last high + I will buy gold in 2 place 1925 after buy pinbar
I want you win,profit
GOLD 2 POSSIBLE BULLISH TRADESHello traders here are 2 scenarios that i will be watching for tomorrow
the bias for gold is still bullish due to middle east situation , and the trend is bullish so you should be looking for buys.
the question is where ? : zone 1 Trendline + green area we might see a bullish continuation from there .
zone 2 : the golden zone which is also a key level that turned from resistance to support (Most Trusted then zone 1 )
other bullish clues : Daily candle closed as A Hammer .
the news tommorow can effect the situation stay vigilant