Gold's safe-haven behaviorIn the previous idea about gold, we expressed skepticism for overly bullish prospects in the short term (in the long term, we stay bullish). The main idea behind that is gold often reacts (initially) positively to geopolitical tensions, stock market weakness, or any type of disruptive event. Nevertheless, even if persistent, these events (or disruptions) eventually start to be priced in and ignored by market participants. Depending on many external factors, the periods of an initial positive reaction vary in length and strength. Below are charts illustrating this relationship between gold and SPX.
Illustration 1.01 - 2021 market peak
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. It can be observed that in late 2021 when SPX started to fall, gold reacted positively at first. However, this positive reaction lasted only for about two months. After that, gold started to follow the stock market to the downside.
Illustration 1.02 - COVID-19 stock market crash
The image above displays the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. Again, gold can be seen rising in an initial reaction to the COVID-19 stock market crash but falling later.
Illustration 1.03 - 2007/2008 crisis
Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). After the stock market peaked in 2007, gold continued to rise. In fact, it managed to go on an approximately 200-day rally before finally reversing to the downside (this is one of the strongest positive reactions in gold to the weakness in stocks).
Illustration 1.04 - 1987 crash (Black Monday)
Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). In response to the 1987 crash, gold rose for 111 days. Interestingly, its peak coincided with the stock market's bottom.
Illustration 1.05 - 2010 flash-crash
Above is the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). During the May 2010 selloff, gold reacted positively to the weakness in stocks at first. Then, it erased nearly all of its gains, rebounded again, and erased gains for the second time.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Gc1
XAUUSD Channel Up still holdingGold / XAUUSD is trading inside a Channel Up since the October 6th Low and the start of this fast and strong rise.
It has been having symmetric pull backs of -1.25% to -1.70% and appears to have completed the latest.
As lng as the 1964 Low holds, buy and target 2020 (+2.95% rise, same as the last two).
If it crosses under 1964, sell and target 1940 (1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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XAUUSD: Excellent opportunity to buy the dip this week.Gold is on a fierce rally since the October 6th bottom that has turned the 1D technical outlook overbought (RSI = 71.518, MACD = 17.530, ADX = 38.679). The price crossed over the Fibonacci 0.618 level but Friday's 1D candle closed downwards leaving a big wick above (but still closed green). We may see a Triangle consolidation much like March 20th-April 3rd before a higher price, allowing the 1D RSI to drop under 60.000 again the the 1D MA50 to approach within supporting distance.
Technically, the whole pattern since September 20th-now, is indentical with February 2nd-March 20th, as their highs and lows are on symmetric levels. Consequently, this week's pullback can be an excellent opportunity to buy the dip and target the candle body high of May 4th, the All Time High (TP = 2,050).
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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XAUUSD Is this rally coming to an end?Two weeks ago (October 07) we called for a new Bullish move (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price hit the 1W MA200 and held it
The sheer force behind this bullish move has surpassed all technical expectations as it is also fundamentally driven by the Middle East tension. Gold acts as a safe haven in times of market uncertainty. In any case, the rally broke today above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and entered the 5-month Resistance Zone that is in place since May 18 and has 10 rejections under its belt.
The 1D RSI broken yesterday into the +70.00 overbought territory so a technical pull-back isn't at all unrealistic now. It all depends on the 1D candle closing (which will also be the weekly closing). If the candle closes below 1979 (0.618 Fibonacci), it will be an early bearish signal. The target of the first correction of the previous similar bullish leg in March was the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the candle makes that closing, we are willing to take the risk and target the 4H MA50/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support cluster at 1935.
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The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out of top consolidation finallyIF you had been following the series of The Gold Odyssey, you would know how well the probabilities are in the analyses.
To the point, Gold is ready to break its almost three year consolidation (huge) range.
1. You can see the powerful reversal off the mid-range support;
2. The candles show and project good momentum to follow through;
3. A trend line breakout already just happened with the week not closed yet; and
4. MACD and VolDiv are only starting to align for a good bullish breakout.
Incoming!!!!
GOLD → Strong zone retest. Bounce before further growth OANDA:XAUUSD is breaking out and is about to test a key area of liquidity at the moment. What can we expect to see from gold going forward?
On the chart I have marked such important levels as 1953 and 1946.7. This is a rather strong resistance area forming a global sideways range. After a long retest, the price is highly likely to fail to break this level the first time and may form a correction to the support. But in the near term, based on fundamental factors and market sentiment, we can assume that the growth will continue after the pullback. In the medium term, the price may test the 2000 area, but we are interested in cheaper zones to start with.
Moving averages support the bullish trend.
Support levels: 1928
Resistance levels: 1946, 1953
Since we have a strong trend + distribution, this movement may continue, but after the retest of the mentioned resistance area. We will follow the price reaction to the area to make further conclusions
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Overbought, requires a technical relief.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up since the strong rebound on the MA200 (1w).
The MA100 (1h) has been basically supporting since its beginning and even though Resistance (1) broke, the sideways trading on the RSI (1h) hits to a possible short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1920 (MA100 1h and bottom of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is inside a Triangle pattern. The direction to which that breaks, can be an indication of the next trend on the 4h time frame.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
🥇 GOLD - Growth will continue after the breakout of 1929On the senior timeframe we see a stop after a strong distribution. This may last until the price breaks the resistance of 1929. At this point, consolidation and a retest of resistance is forming
TA on the high timeframe:
1) The bullish trend is strong
2) The area of 1929-1932 stops us from further growth.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is consolidating. Growth is formed from the support 1913
2) Retest of resistance can be accompanied by both rebound and breakout.
3) The signal for a rebound will be a false breakout, and the signal for further growth will be a breakout and consolidation above 1929.
Key resistance 📈 1929
Key support 📉 1914
GOLD → Consolidation phase and key boundary OANDA:XAUUSD continues to form consolidation in the range between 1928.8 - 1914.2. In the near future resistance may be tested, the price reaction to this level will determine the future direction of the price
Since the price is in the key range of 1928 - 1914, there is a probability of price bounce from the resistance. Further growth may continue after the price goes beyond 1928 - the signal for this will be further consolidation of the price above the level.
In periods of geopolitical uncertainty investors rush to safe assets. Gold is a rare bright spot in such turbulent periods.Geopolitical fluctuations are a good reason for investors to look for a safe haven in gold. Despite zero yields, the yellow metal is a preferred asset for money managers who want to wait out scary periods in world affairs. The moving averages are supporting the trend and on the Daily timeframe, price is testing global downside resistance, breaking through which price will get the 2000 mark as a further target
Support levels: 1914.2, 1909
Resistance levels: 1928.8
In the long term I expect a retest of the resistance. If the price breaks through and consolidates above the level, gold will head higher. With the formation of a false breakout and price consolidation below the level, the market will give us a correction to support
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:US500
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Channel Down turning into Inverse H&S?Gold (XAUUSD) emphatically smashed the bullish target we set 2 weeks ago (see chart below) and made a standard Lower High at the top of the 5-month Channel Up:
The price also hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in the process and that is a technical sell, with which we will target 1890 (just above Symmetrical Support 2). Since however the October 06 rebound was initiated on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), it may not just be a Channel Down Lower Low but a long-term market bottom and the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. A Bullish Cross completion on the 1W MACD, will largely confirm that.
Being a technical bullish reversal pattern, the IH&S typically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so 2095 is our long-term target. But on the shorter term, if the price breaks above 1953.50 (Resistance 1), we will target 1987 (just below Resistance 2).
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GOLD → A counter-trend correction is forming. Panic zone OANDA:XAUUSD has been forming a correction since the opening of the session and has reached the area of 1910. The price enters the panic zone relative to 1914. What should we expect from gold next?
The correction on the background of a strong surge of energy and distributive movement should have happened. The market should pull back and gather potential before further upside. The price is testing the 1914.15 area for a breakout. The price is trading in the panic zone, where there are a lot of buyers' bids and sellers' bids are formed. A false break of the level will give us an impulse to 1928.8 and then to 1946. But, if the market consolidates below 1914.15, the correction may continue towards 1905 and 1900, but before further growth. The upward movement in the medium term may continue, for this price will have to overcome 1914, 1928 and 1946, At the moment we are waiting for the price to find support before further growth.
Support levels: 1905, 1900, 1895, SMA
Resistance levels: 1914, 1928, 1946
In the future I expect the continuation of growth, but only after the end of counter-trend correction
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
Gold futures eyes $2,577 in acceleration of upside impulseA pullback in yellow wave (2) almost hit 61.8% of yellow wave (1).
Now we see the strong minor impulse to the upside.
It can be a part of large yellow wave (3).
The target is projected at the distance of 1.618x of wave (1) with aim at $2,577.
Watch how price breaks above the top of wave (1) beyond $2,086
Risk/reward is 1:2.5, one could get it better if goes on a lower time frame and buys on
minor pullback following minor wave 1 of (3).
Do you see gold futures touching $2,577?
Is the Downtrend Nearing its End?Last Friday, on October 13th, a significant white candle with exceptionally high volume was observed, possibly driven by two catalysts:
– Escalating geopolitical conflicts.
– A decrease in CPI, leading to market expectations of a potential halt in rate increases by the Fed.
Trend
– A large white candle with exceptionally high volume touched the upper boundary of the downtrend channel.
– Let's observe if the market can sustain its bullish momentum next week and breach the downtrend channel.
Symmetrical Projection: Breaking the Downtrend “N” Pattern
– The 100% price projection from the initial swing starting at the 2nd lower high has been achieved.
– Furthermore, the price has already surpassed the 100% projection of the pullback, indicating the possible termination of the downtrend pattern.
– After this breach, we can expect either a reversal in the trend or a sideways movement.
Conclusion
– An uptrend is more likely to occur based on the two situations mentioned just now:
A large bullish candle with exceptionally high volume is on the verge of breaking the downtrend channel.
The downtrend N pattern has been disrupted.
Preparation for the Possible Uptrend Scenario
– Instead of simply jumping into the breakout, I will be waiting for a retest before getting on board.
– Potential retest levels: Some key Fibonacci retracement levels from the lowest low (A) to the previous high (B) (assuming the previous high is the initial target price of the upward move).
The 0.236 level: close to the key level at 1969.
The 0.382 level: close to the high of the second pullback of the downtrend.
The 0.5 level
Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
GOLD → Hammer + Bullish Engulfing +Resistance breakout OANDA:XAUUSD increases daily volatility by more than 3% for the first time in 6 months. Friday's opening-to-close session overcomes 3.4% and $63.53. A complex yet obvious situation is taking shape. Let's get a handle on what's going on and what to expect next
In the coming week, important news is published. Worth paying attention to:
Core Retail Sales & Reatil Sales
Initial Jobless Claims, FED Chair Powell Speaks
I don't think that the news of the coming week will change the fundamental background of gold, because in times of crisis and instability, the metal attracts a lot of investor interest, as we can see from the price and volume indicator.
On the weekly chart, we see an interesting candlestick pattern: hammer + bullish engulfing on retest of the strong medium-term support at 1809. In tandem with a strong fundamental background, this pattern, also on a high timeframe, plays an important role in medium and long term pricing. On D1 we see a breakout of the downtrend resistance and Friday's close near the 1934 level. The price close indicates to us that the level will be broken in the near term and gold will continue its active movement towards 1950, 1984, 2000.
The conflict in the Middle East will not end quickly, no matter how much we would like it to. What is happening now is the development of what has been accumulating for many years. Consequently, we can conclude that against the background of everything that is happening. both in the world and on the chart, the growth of gold is only gaining momentum. The trend is broken
Outlook: Monday may open with a gap in the futures market. A pullback to the downside before further growth is also not excluded. Medium-term growth may continue, in the nearest future the market may test 2000, then 2050
COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GC1! Gold Futures Short setup I present to you a possible scenario going into the weeks ahead .
Gold finished Friday 13 Oct very strong with a move that no doubt destroyed many whom were taken by surprise with the aggressive move out of 1880 back up to 1945 in one trading session .
The question is what's next? Well no one has the exact answer but here is a possible scenario which could be on the cards . I would not be surprised to see a small pull back and all the shorts to pile in trying to sell the top before getting trapped/destroyed with another move up towards $1970 taking out the sept 20 high/liquidity before a much bigger move to the downside.
To give my chart the uncongested cleanest look , I have removed some of the levels inside of the Fib Channel to make it easier on the eye .
Above we have a High volume Node+ Liquidity and the golden pocket + Fib Channel as confluences .
I will be expecting a reaction at this region and will act accordingly .
More data will be required to determine if this is to be another LH on the HTF or a deep RT and continuation to the upside .
Set alerts at the given region and manage your SL in accordance with your trading plan and appetite for risk.
Like and follow for more setups like this and check out my previous analysis on Gold
GOLD → The market is targeting 0.618 fibo ($1895) OANDA:XAUUSD is entering the empty range from 1885 to 1915. The only level the market will still be able to interact with, before reaching the 1915 target, is in the 1895 area - a strong liquidity area
Today we see a break of the resistance at 1885 after a small retest. A momentum is formed, which tells us about a further target in the form of 1895 resistance, formed back in June 2023. It is worth paying attention to this area, because here is also 0.618 Fibo, which is an important level for the market. Since there are no important areas of resistance and liquidity in the whole range of 1885 - 1915 except this zone, it is here that some struggle on the market may take place and a correction to the support may be formed before further growth.
The market now has a strong fundamental component (economic news, crisis and war) - all this increases the interest to the metal, but it should be understood that the market cannot grow all the time, sometimes it will fall (correction). SMA 1H - strong support, and 4H - MA-200 will be tested in the medium term (in the area of 0.618 fibo)
Support levels: 1885
Resistance levels: 1895, local ascending line, SMA200
I expect continuation of growth to the mentioned resistance area from which a correction to support may follow before further growth to 1915
OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Strong bullish trend feels no resistance OANDA:XAUUSD does not react to the nuances of technical analysis and is actively growing. But, the growth is accompanied by a consolidation moment, which can become a lever for further rsot. Even against the background of the trend, the price is able to accumulate potential
The breakthrough of resistance 1877.6 is formed and the price aspires to the important level for the medium-term perspective - 1885. Most likely, with the current fundamental features, the level will be broken in the near future, but before that a correction or a retest of the support before further growth may follow.
There are a number of important news for the US market today. Worth paying attention to: Core CPI, CPI, Initial Jobless Claims. Lately there is more news about inflation stabilization, but it is not enough for the medium and long term. In any case, this is more positive news for the market. For gold, this is a positive nuance as the TVC:DXY will continue on a localized downward course
Resistance levels: 1885, rising line
Support levels: 1878.6, 1877,6, 1872.7
In the long term, I expect a correction from 1885 and the formation of a retest back to the level for further breakout of the resistance zone
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! CAPITALCOM:US500
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - Range resistance is the target Gold updates the high to 1874. Yesterday I pointed out the bullish pattern - the market is in the realization phase and gives us a 150pips rise, but we haven't reached the target yet
TA on the high timeframe:
1) Strong bullish trend continues. Against the background of the crisis in the world, the interest in gold is only increasing
2) The medium-term target has not been reached yet. The growth will continue
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A small pullback may follow before jumping to 1877.7.
2) After reaching 1877.7, I expect a false breakdown followed by a decline, most likely to the support of the mentioned range - 1857.
3) Short-term target is 1877, then 1857. And what will happen next, we will follow the price reaction to these zones.
Key resistance📈: 1877.7
Key support📉: 1866, 1857
GOLD → The market is aimed at resistance retest OANDA:XAUUSD enters the 1857-1877 range, consolidates above the support and makes a new jump. Yesterday I talked about strong fundamentals, relative to technical analysis and what we see is a breakout of said resistance.
Today PPI - one of the inflation indicators is published and at 18:00 GMT FOMC Meeting Minutes - most likely the information trend of previous periods will be preserved. At the same time TVC:DXY is in the phase of correction to the support area, the publication of bullish news for the dollar may resume further growth of the index, which will partly affect the gold. In the nearest future the market may test the resistance of 1877, after which the price may roll back to the support. In the long term, the market may trade inside the sideways range to determine the further scenario, but it should be understood that gold is bought up during the war. In the absence of further escalation of the conflict, the price may decline, but not significantly: the longer-term factor - expectations of the end of the Fed rate hike cycle - is also having an impact.
Resistance levels: 1874, 1877.5
Support levels: 1857.7
In the future, I expect a retest of resistance and subsequent rebound with further forging of the sideways range
OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:US500
Regards R. Linda!