Buying XAUUSD to take out Buyside LiquidityIn a buy trade on the 5 mins timeframe. Looking to take out equal highs from the Asian range.
Gc1
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: GOLD | XAUUSDGOLD | XAUUSD is in consolidation currently. I am waiting for it to touch down at the Weekly +FVG and move higher. I'm interested more in long setups versus shorts. Patience usually pays, so I wait and watch for valid setups to form this week.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD → The pressure from above is building. New lows...FX:XAUUSD stops testing local highs. Strong growth has stopped and the price is being squeezed between the boundaries of the narrowing consolidation. The exit of the price from the figure will be accompanied by an impulse...
Last week changed the general fundamental background, gold traders are getting nervous and moving into a phase of profit taking on the back of strong economic data. Ahead is the FOMC meeting where further steps to regulate the US economy will be discussed.
Technically, gold stops trying to update or test the highs, feeling pressure from above, but at the same time the price is probing the base from below, gradually updating the local lows. A gradually narrowing consolidation is forming on the chart and if there is a price exit from the figure, it will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2650, 2659
Support levels: 2632, 2623, 2613
I continue to hold that bears will continue to press the price, which will provoke the price exit downwards with further retest of 2623-2613-2600. But we need to keep an eye on the regulators' comments and the dollar's behavior...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
NF data is coming in, GOLD remains stable with rising channelOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to maintain the recovery trend with a slight increase in the Asian trading session on October 4, gold is currently trading at 2,661 USD/oz, a slight increase equivalent to 0.21% on the day and about 5 USD as of today. the time the article was completed.
Investors will release the US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major volatility in the gold market.
US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in September.
The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released, this is the most important data this week.
Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 140,000 in September, following a gain of 142,000 in August. US unemployment rate expected will remain unchanged at 4.2% in September.
In addition to changes in overall nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate, investors need to focus on average hourly earnings data, which can provide important signals about inflation. broadcast.
The average annual hourly wage increase in the United States in September is expected to be unchanged from 3.8% the previous month. Surveys show average hourly wages in the United States are expected to rise 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August.
The September non-farm payrolls report is the next important economic data in the US that could affect Fed policy. If non-farm data is stronger than expected, this could further weaken expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply in November, thereby pushing the dollar higher and creating pressure. for gold price.
Conversely, if non-farm employment data is lower than expected, this will be a positive signal for gold prices as it will boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply, and cause the currency to US Dollar weakens again.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still trading fairly stable with an uptrend after recovering from corrections and from the support area noted by readers in the previous issue at the lower edge of the price channel, confluence with horizontal support at 2,634USD.
In terms of structure, there are no changes compared to previous publications, still an uptrend highlighted by the price channel and weekly target level at 2,672USD.
Once the $2,672 level is broken above, gold will have room to continue rising a little further with a target then around $2,685.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension at $2,624, it still has a short-term technical bullish outlook. Notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2689
↨
→Take Profit 2 2684
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
GOLD stabilized at the beginning of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD It is still trading quite stably as at the beginning of the week there were no macro data or events that created a shock on the market.
On Tuesday (October 8) in the Asian market, spot gold is currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD weakened on Monday due to a significant rise in US bond yields, but gold's decline was limited as geopolitical tensions still had the potential for unexpected spikes.
Gold prices reached a record high of 2,685.42 USD/ounce on September 26. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments.
Last week's US jobs report reinforced beliefs that the economy is unlikely to require significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, with traders currently pricing in There is an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by just 25bps next month.
The market will focus on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes, as well as US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data this week.
In addition, China's central bank did not buy gold for reserves in September for the fifth consecutive month.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has had 4 consecutive days of decline, the price declines were not strong and did not create any breakthroughs, as the declines were limited and recovered quickly.
Temporarily, the price drops should only be considered a technical correction without any impact on the main uptrend with the nearest support at 2,634 USD. Note to previous readers.
The main support follows the EMA21 line, with gold recovering above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to set expectations to retest the 2,672 USD level once again.
The relative strength index points down with a very moderate slope, not a significant bearish signal.
In case the $2,634 level breaks below gold there is still some other support from the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the EMA21 moving average.
There is no change in the main trend with price channel as the long-term trend, and notable technical levels are listed again as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,645 – 2,659 – 2,672USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2670
→Take Profit 1 2659
↨
→Take Profit 2 2654
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
GOLD follows geopolitical trendsOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Friday (October 4) after a better-than-expected US jobs report dampened expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the dollar. However, geopolitical risks related to Israel and Iran supported gold prices, limiting the downward adjustment.
The U.S. labor market added more jobs than expected in September, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, reflecting the job market outlook, the U.S. Department of Labor reported last Friday. much stronger than expected.
New U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 254,000 in September, above August's revised 159,000 and better than market expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1% in September. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%.
As a key indicator of inflationary pressures, annual wage growth increased to 4% from 3.9% in August, a monthly increase of 0.4%, in line with August data, The labor force participation rate was unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%.
After strong employment data, the market expects that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, while lowering expectations for interest rate cuts at the next four Fed meetings to less than 100 basis points.
According to CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", the market currently predicts the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 2.6%. .
Israel does not guarantee not to carry out retaliatory attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities
On Friday (October 4) local time, a senior US State Department official announced that Israel has not assured the Biden administration that it will not carry out retaliatory attacks against facilities. Iran's nuclear program.
Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East.
The US official added that it was difficult to know whether Israel would launch a retaliatory strike on October 7, the first anniversary of a major attack by Hamas on Israel.
Israeli officials say Israel will launch "retaliation" in the next few days after a major Iranian missile attack, possibly targeting oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran - according to Axios reported Wednesday.
Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles.
Axios also reported Israeli officials saying that if this happens, all options will be on the table, including an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
This week, the US will release inflation data, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index. At the same time, the geopolitical situation will continue to limit the decline in gold prices. An escalation in the conflict involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel and the United States would be expected to provide potential support for new highs in gold prices.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Wednesday: Minutes of September FOMC meeting
Thursday: US Consumer Price Index(CPI), Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold had a highly volatile trading week but overall remained stable with an uptrend, and all downward corrections recovered quickly when reaching support levels of interest to readers at 2,624 - 2,645 USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down from the overbought level, but the slope is not large and does not create any significant decline, showing that the market sentiment does not want to short-sell gold and the selling motivation is very weak.
The trend of gold price will still be stable with short-term price channel and EMA21 as main support. As long as gold remains in the price channel, its technical outlook is still bullish.
The target level is fixed at 2,672 USD, which means the nearest resistance is at 2,672 USD followed by the previously established all-time high of 2,685 USD.
In the coming time, the gold price outlook will be shaped by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2673 - 2671⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2677
→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2661
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2625
→Take Profit 1 2636
↨
→Take Profit 2 2641
XAUUSD Rejection on the 4H MA50 gives a short-term sell signal.Gold (XAUUSD) appears to have entered a ranged phase, similar to the 'Accumulation Rectangle' pattern of August 19 - September 11. This (almost) 1 month consolidation was the accumulation pattern that the market used in order to fuel the next big Bullish Leg, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 4H MA50 was acting as a Pivot though during the Rectangle and a rejection on September 02 there, caused the last Support (bottom) test before it started the recovery process. We believe we might be on a similar stage as the 4H RSI is posting a similar Lower Highs trend-line.
As a result, we believe that the current potential rejection on the 4H MA50 is a short-term sell opportunity, targeting 2625.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 07 - Oct 11]In the beginning of last week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,624 USD/oz to 2,672 USD/oz due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediately afterwards, international gold prices dropped to close to 2,631 USD/oz after US non-agricultural employment figures for September were announced at 254,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. In addition, wages increased more than expected when they increased by 0.4% last month. This reduces expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates by 0.5% next month. However, concerns about the escalating Middle East conflict pushed gold prices up to 2,670 USD/oz, then closed the week at 2,653 USD/oz.
This week, the US will release the minutes of the FED meeting and inflation indicators, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Previously, the FED paid more attention to labor market data. Now the escalating geopolitical conflict threatens to push oil prices up even more, putting pressure on inflation, so CPI and PPI will receive special attention from the market. If these two figures increase sharply, the FED may delay, or only cut interest rates by 0.25% next month. This will have a negative impact on gold prices next week, possibly pushing gold prices below the 2,600 USD/oz area.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price moves sideways and accumulates in a triangle model. If the 2630 support zone is penetrated, the gold price will adjust to below 2600. However, if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates strongly, it is possible that next week's gold price will break its peak. 2,700 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.600 – 2.625USD
Resistance: 2.700 – 2.676USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2715
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
GOLD → Ahead of NonFarm Payrolls. What to expect from gold?FX:XAUUSD is in consolidation with gradually narrowing local extrema. NonFarm Payrolls are ahead and traders are getting nervous about further movement. Up for renewal of highs or a long-awaited correction?
Before NFP, traders resorted to adjusting positions, taking profits on the US dollar rally (reasons: strong employment and PMI data from ISM). The encouraging data weakened bets on an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed. However, the decline in gold prices remains subdued due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The future direction of the gold price will be determined by the upcoming US employment data. Gold could move into a correction if NFP shows an upside surprise, which would impact the USD rally and strengthen bets for a 0.25% Fed rate cut in November. Conversely...
Resistance levels: 2665, 2673, 2685
Support levels: 2653, SMA 200 & 50, 2640
The SMAs are narrowing, which could also be a hint of a possible correction (if there is a crossover). Technically gold is ready for a correction, but fundamentally, unpredictable news may affect further growth. Analysts are inclined to the beginning of correction on the background of strong economic data of the first half of the week
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD decreased slightly after the US employment reportOANDA:XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (October 4), when traders almost stopped betting on the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in next meeting. Interest rate expectations moved strongly after the market received the US September employment report much better than expected.
At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 2.2 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.08%, to 2,654.3 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. Kitco translation. For the whole week, spot gold price decreased by 4.6 USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.17%.
A report from the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector in September reached 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 150,000 new jobs that economists made in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% instead of remaining at 4.2% as forecast.
The USD increased sharply after the above report was published, and bets on a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting almost disappeared. All of these movements put downward pressure on the price of gold - the asset is priced in USD and does not carry interest.
The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD compared to six other major currencies, increased nearly 0.5%, closing Friday at 102.49 points, the highest since mid-August.
This week, the Dollar Index increased by 2.1% due to a sharp drop in expectations for a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut by the Fed, not to mention the need to hedge against Middle East geopolitical risks, which encouraged investors to buy the currency. greenbacks and US treasury bonds. In the past month, the index has increased nearly 1.3% - according to data from MarketWatch.
XAUUSD: Quick sell opportunityGold is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.790, MACD = 41.420, ADX = 28.520), gone down considerably from its previous oversold levels as it has turned sideways since September 26th, in a range that looks like the last consolidation of late August. Now that the 4H MA50 has been breached, the metal can technically make an attempt to test the bottom of the Channel. This is a strong short term sell opportunity (TP = 2,625).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
GOLD → Price breaks support. Panic and news...FX:XAUUSD stands still, traders doubt further actions. There are two days of important news ahead, which can provoke panic and profit-taking....
The market reacts weakly to the rather serious actions in the Middle East, the price is in consolidation without updating local extremes. The dollar is strengthening amid decreasing risks of a 0.5% cut in interest rates in November (the most likely scenario is 0.25%). A strong ADP employment report eased concerns about the state of the US labor market, supporting expectations of Friday's NFP. Ahead of the PMI from ISM and Initial Jobless Claims.
Technically, the chart failed to give impetus from support, with the SMA acting as support. After a failed attempt, price came back and broke the conglomerate of support: the rising line, sma and 2650-2654. Can you feel traders getting nervous?)
Resistance levels: 2650, SMA, 2656, 2663
Support levels: 2640, 2623, 2613, 2600
The trigger is 2640. If the buyers do not hold this area, the price may spill to the bottom of the range, as well as reach the imbalance zone. But, there may be high volatility before the news, within which the price may test the resistance before further downward correction.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
ADP exerts pressure, but geopolitics is the main influence nowOANDA:XAUUSD is trading quite stable during the Asian trading session on October 3, as of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,655USD/oz.
After the release of stronger-than-expected US ADP data the previous trading day, the US Dollar strengthened and gold prices plummeted to 2,640.91USD/ounce. However, affected by tensions in the Middle East, gold prices have recovered strongly from low levels.
Although the "small non-farm" ADP data stimulated a rise in the US Dollar and US bond yields, which was not good for gold prices, tensions in the Middle East supported gold prices, which is very easy to see recently as news and breaking points from the Middle East cover the market.
U.S. ADP private-sector employment rose by 143,000 in September, more than an expected gain of 125,000, according to Wednesday's economic data. The previous value was an increase of 99,000.
Israel will carry out “massive retaliation” in the next few days
Israeli officials say Israel will launch "significant retaliation" in the coming days to Iran's major missile attack on Tuesday, which could target oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran, the American news website Axios reported on Wednesday.
Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East.
Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles on Tuesday.
On Wednesday local time, Iranian President Pezeshyan visited Qatar and held talks with Qatari Emir (Head of State) Tamim. Pezeshchiyan said in a press conference after the talks that Israel's military operations against the Gaza Strip, attacks on Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran and military attacks against Lebanon forced Iran to respond. pay.
Pezeshchiyan warned that if Israel carries out retaliatory attacks on Iran, Iran will respond more forcefully.
In times of political uncertainty, gold benefits from its safe-haven nature and can benefit from a rate-cutting environment because it does not generate interest.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has almost moved sideways in the last few trading sessions, and every time corrections occur it always recovers quickly and maintains the main uptrend from the price channel.
The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension provides the possibility of continued price increases with a fixed short-term target at 2,672 USD, which also means that the technical point of 2,672 USD is currently the closest resistance. at, then at 2,685USD.
There is no change in the technical structure with bullish conditions dominating the daily chart.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
GOLD → Bulls are trying to hold their defenses above the SMAFX:XAUUSD is forming a sideways range, within which it strengthens to 2673 with subsequent retracement and retest of SMA 200 & 50. Buyers are trying to hold their defenses above this area with the aim of further growth....
The complicated situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, which keeps the gold price from falling amid the rising dollar. Any de-escalation of the conflict (Israel's inaction on Iran's measures) could increase selling pressure...
Nevertheless, the US employment change data from ADP as well as the Fed's speech will be the next important events for the US dollar and the gold price. Any hints of interest rate cuts will be viewed favorably...
Technically, emphasis on 2665 resistance - if the bulls can consolidate above this zone, gold could go for a retest of ATH.
Also - emphasis on 2643. A break of the support will reinforce selling. This could take the price to 2625-2600.
Resistance levels: 2665, 2673, 2685
Support levels: 2643, 2625, 2515
Bullish trend. Gold is not going to update the lows. The bulls are trying to consolidate above the SMA. Signs that the price is ready to grow. BUT, it is possible that unpredictable signs may appear in the market, which may lead to profit-taking and correction.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD soars, attention to the Middle East and dataAffected by tensions in the Middle East and falling US bond yields, demand for safe havens increased and gold prices achieved the target increase at 2,672 USD. Note to readers in the publication issue Before gold fake correction,. Gold prices are still hovering below recent record highs after the Fed Chairman hinted at smaller interest rate cuts in the future.
As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East increased after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, gold prices rose due to safe-haven demand.
Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel's actions against its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran fired 200 missiles at Israel in an operation Tuesday night local time.
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran's missile attacks a “significant escalation,” but said they were ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because the US military helped shoot down several incoming missiles.
• Sullivan emphasized that the attack will have consequences and that the United States is consulting with Israel on next steps or possible responses.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran made a big mistake and will pay the price.
This series of launches was the largest missile attack on Israel in Iran's history.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed that 90% of their missiles successfully hit targets in Israel. As of now, no casualties have been officially reported.
Israel's emergency services have lifted all restrictions and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets.
Iran's president says he does not want war but will resolutely fight any threat from Israel.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is considered a safe haven asset in times of economic and political turmoil. Gold posted its best quarterly gain since 2020 last quarter after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September with a 50 basis point cut.
Major banks expect gold to continue its record price increase in 2025, due to a resurgence of large capital flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of further interest rate cuts from major banks. major central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
Gold has risen nearly $577 year to date, or more than 28%, which would be the largest annual gain since 2010.
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast in early 2025 to $2,900/ounce from $2,700/ounce, citing a gradual increase in ETF inflows as Western and Chinese interest rates cut and central banks increased strong buy.
Next, the market will pay attention to this week's US labor force data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, for further guidance on the US's policy stance.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold recovered and reached its target gain at $2,672 yesterday. Temporarily, the upward momentum of gold prices is also limited by the above technical level.
Although the upward momentum is limited, the uptrend still dominates the daily technical chart. Once the $2,672 level is broken, gold will be eligible to increase further with a target level at an all-time peak established. Previously at 2,685USD.
There is no possibility of any significant price decline, as long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term. Price drops that do not break below the price channel should only be considered short-term corrections.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
Gold eyes 2700 with potential bull-flag breakoutGold futures look set to have another crack at 2700 over the near-term, given the strong rebound from the 2650 area on Tuesday and the tight bull-flag pattern developing on the intraday chart. Whether it can simply break to a new high is likely down to whether tensions in the Middle East escalate further.
GOLD → MA-200 False Breakdown. Will the growth continue?FX:XAUUSD is testing the support of 2625 forming a false break of SMA-200 as part of the correction. The range boundaries are confirmed and the market, after retesting the support, changes its target...
Globally and locally the trend is bullish, this is facilitated by the situation in the Middle East, which is becoming more complicated every day.... In addition, US dollar buyers took a breather before the news, and US Treasury yields reversed the previous rise amid deteriorating risk sentiment, which limited the decline in the gold price.
Traders await PMI from ISM, and JOLTS survey data, which could signal a further cooling of the US labor market
Yesterday Powell said:
- Fed in no rush to cut rates quickly, will be data-driven. If the economy is as expected, two more 0.25% cuts are possible. Accordingly, the course of interest rate cut st
Support levels: 2643, 2634, 2624
Resistance levels: 2659, 2673, 2685
Gold still enjoys huge interest. Buyers are defending key support zones. A change of sentiment is forming and I would expect a continuation of the rise from the key support zones towards the zones of interest at the moment. The news may increase volatility and form a shakeout....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Pay attention to Powell's statement, GOLD corrects and recoversOANDA:XAUUSD There were 2 consecutive sessions of price decline at the end of last month, mainly due to profit-taking activities without affecting the uptrend both fundamentally and technically.
From a monthly perspective, gold prices rose more than 6% in September, reaching a peak of $2,685.42 last Thursday, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut, stimulus measures China's preferences and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Today (Tuesday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the National Association of Business Economics, which is expected to cause violent fluctuations in gold prices. Gold traders will pay close attention to Powell's comments for further information on the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy.
• If Powell signals a stronger interest rate cut, gold prices will certainly have to be pushed higher, because lower interest rates often reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making them more attractive to investors.
• However, if Powell is cautious and signals a slower pace of interest rate cuts, gold may face downward pressure.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 36.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November.
In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, which has supported gold prices.
Over the weekend, Israel continued to attack Lebanon and claimed to have killed a senior figure of Hezbollah following the murder of the organization's leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran, which backs the powerful rebel group, vowed to fight back and noted that Nasrallah's killing "will not go unanswered".
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold's downside correction, it recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the current corrections still do not affect the main technical trend.
The short-term uptrend is noticeable because the price channel remains stable, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, its short-term trend and outlook are still bullish.
In addition, if gold breaks above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have room to increase further with the goal of returning to the 2,672 USD area. This means that $2,645 is the closest resistance currently.
During the day, the technical bullish outlook remains unchanged and notable levels are listed again as follows.
Support: 2,624 – 2,610 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,645 – 2,650USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2780
→Take Profit 1 2669
↨
→Take Profit 2 2664
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590
→Take Profit 1 2601
↨
→Take Profit 2 2606
Jobs data week, GOLD corrects with steady trendOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded slightly this past weekend on Friday (September 27) as traders received the latest US data, but gold also hit a new all-time record this past week due to Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.
Although the latest US consumer spending and inflation data reinforced expectations that the US central bank will cut interest rates further in the coming months, it also failed to provide clarity on the question. How deep will the Fed cut?
The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed inflation rose just 0.1% in August, below market expectations. This data increases market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement easy monetary policy.
However, the data gap compared to the same period is not really large, this makes the market begin to divide into two directions; How much will the Fed cut interest rates in the upcoming FOMC period, 50bps or 25bps.
As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold becomes more attractive in an interest rate cutting or low interest rate environment, which has pushed gold prices up about 14% this quarter, the best quarter since 2016.
The latest consumer spending and inflation data from the US were the main economic indicators influencing the gold market last week. Inflationary pressures have eased, signs of growth in consumer spending suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further for the rest of the year.
Currently, the market is expecting the Fed to cut another 75 basis points over the remainder of the year. This expectation has become the main driving force to help gold prices continue to increase this week, and looking into the future, this is still important support for gold's fundamental uptrend in the near future.
At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have added to market uncertainty. Uncertainties about the Middle East situation and the US presidential election have increased market demand for safe havens, further supporting gold prices.
This week will be a trading week with a lot of important macro data from the United States, the focus will be on non-farm employment data (NFP). It is expected that gold will have another turbulent trading week. market government.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the NABE meeting
Tuesday: European CPI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Employment
Wednesday: ADP jobs report
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, ISM services PMI
Friday: Nonfarm payroll report
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold corrected from $2,672 as target resistance, it recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension support point noted by readers in the previous issue.
Although gold has corrected, structure and bullish conditions are still dominating the daily technical chart, with a short-term trend from the price channel and key support from the EMA21 and trend from the price channel.
However, the Relative Strength Index is falling from the top of the overbought zone, if it falls below the 80 level this could be seen as a signal for bearish space ahead.
With gold having increased for many days, it is very normal for a technical correction to occur. As long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21, the trend and outlook are still bullish. In case gold is sold below 2,645 USD it will tend to decrease further to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level without affecting the main uptrend.
Looking ahead, the trend and prospect of gold is technically bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,645USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2696 - 2694⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2700
→Take Profit 1 2689
↨
→Take Profit 2 2684
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
→Take Profit 1 2631
↨
→Take Profit 2 2636
XAUUSD Bearish reversal at the top of the Channel Up.Gold / XAUUSD reached the top of the 4 month Channel Up and is starting to reverse.
The 1day MA50 has been supporting since July 3rd and is the technical tolerance levels for buying.
The 1day RSI posts similar structures as the previous 3 bearish legs.
Also all three bullish legs have been around +8.00%.
Sell now and target the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 2560.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
XAUUSD Top of Channel Up. Small correction possible.Gold (XAUUSD) has reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 2-month Channel Up. The trend also shows a top on the Sine Waves sequence and the 1D MACD a potential Bearish Cross. This has been the most consistent sell signal in the past 4 months.
As a result, we turn bearish on Gold short-term, targeting a new Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up, a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level as the September 03 Low. Our Target is 2615.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
USD & Gold Market Review September 30, 2024Analyze Macroeconomic News with USD Chart
The situation is that the Market is quite uncomfortable because it has been 2 weeks, but the USD still has no clear direction for itself. Looking at the event chart above, you can see that the negative psychological price mark is 101.5
- FOMC – interest rate cut by 50 points.
- Manufacturing PMI conflicts, but can still be assessed as bad.
- Shigeru Ishiba puts pressure on the USD, as JPY may get stronger.
- PCE is a bad personal inflation index.
==> A lot of big bad news below the 101.5 mark but the USD still moves sideways up and down, not moving strongly to the number 9x.xxx
==> Although the USD has lowered its closing price WEEKLY, it still causes discomfort because of bad news, such a decrease is not right. Is there a time when USD will suddenly turn over???
What's on this week???
- In early October, at dawn on October 1, 24, Powell spoke
- Friday has employment and NONFARM data
SPDR Gold Trust Analysis
Daily chart of Gold prices and Gold Reserves
- SPDR reduced reserves by 5.18 tons last Friday. However, just a 1-day reduction doesn't give much information, so that's all we know for now.
- The LONG SHORT index of retail traders shows that traders are afraid of SELLing and have the psychology of changing to BUY, so the Market's ability to Kill Sellers is reduced, meaning it is limited in pushing prices up further.
GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) stock chart vs. Gold price
The GLD chart is a stock active in the US session, it coincides with the gold price chart when the US stock session opens.
Looking at price behavior with volume on the GLD chart, we see that most of it is bearish behavior, like profit taking at the peak.
=> So in my opinion, the 246 price mark of GLD corresponds to the 2660-65 price range of the gold price, which is a psychological pivot for GLD (SPDR Gold Trust stock).
Analyze the Gold Future Market Volume chart
Price areas with converging Volume on the H4 chart include: 2660, 2625, 2580. Prices are often easily attracted and rotate around these price axes.
Currently on Chart H4 and H1, it can be seen that Gold has a bearish channel and is below the 2660 mark at the end of last week.
Conclude
Pay attention to the BULL BEAR 2660 position pivot price range
BULL faction
- The BULL side should only join the fight when the price has increased past 2660, and there is action to create price support above 2660.
- Or the price drops completely to 2625 to consider further recovery behavior of BULL.
BEAR faction
- Because the trend is still up, Sellers also need to be careful because there is not much Bear support.
- Currently, there is a downward price channel below the 2660 mark, so Sellers should embrace this current price channel to enter orders and minimize risks.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 30 - Oct 04]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise to a new peak at 2,685 USD/oz. However, after that, profit-taking pressure caused the international gold price to drop to 2,643 USD/oz and close the week at 2,658 USD/oz.
Gold prices continued to increase strongly this week mainly due to the FED cutting interest rates by 50 percentage points in last week's meeting. Notably, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index for August announced this week only increased by 2.2% over the same period last year, down from 2.5% in July. and is the lowest level since February 2021. PCE in August was close to the FED's target of 2%. This further strengthens expectations that the FED will continue to sharply cut interest rates in the near future.
In the current context, the FED's biggest concern is to revive the labor market, which has been stagnant in recent times. Next week, the US will announce non-agricultural employment (NFP) data and the unemployment rate for August. According to forecasts, NFP in August will only reach about 144,000 jobs and the unemployment rate may remain at low levels. 4.2%. If these data are as predicted, it will also increase expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates in the coming period, thereby positively affecting gold prices next week.
📌However, the problem that many investors and experts are concerned about right now is that the gold price is deep in the overbought zone, clearly shown through the MACD, RSI... Therefore, the possibility of pressure cannot be ruled out. Profit taking will increase again, causing gold prices to suffer another correction next week at the current high price range.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.645 – 2.624USD
Resistance: 2.685 – 2.672USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
