UK Warning Sirens to Global Financial MarketsUK is a warning signal for everyone. This is what happens when central banks attempt to pivot in the current inflationary environment.
The Global Lehman event accelerated after the September U.S. CPI, but was paused by BOE temporary intervention.
Next U.S. CPI follows the end of BOE intervention.
A Lehman crash now equals approx -60% in GDOW/SPX.
The softer each step is down, and no sign of capitulation, the worst final low will be. Will the US be a safe-haven from a global financial crisis?
If you believe central bankers can unring the bells, now is the time to go ALL-IN.
Gdow
Global Recession / Depression of 2022-2023Bears and Bulls await for the "Great Reset" (or as the Fed might state: "financial accident") that will lead to the Fed Pivot.
The question is where (and when) will the pivot occur?
"Watch your step while peering into the abyss. The cliff edge is crumbling faster and is closer than we realize..."
GDOW: Global Dow Step UpGDOW Global Dow (USD) Step Up
The Dow Global has made a similar pattern to the Dow itself with a double bottom at 2970,
the second bottom picking up the longer term parallel. Since then it's got itself trapped
within the same triangle formation we see on the Dow, still using the lower parallel as
ultimate support on down-side tests.Whilst it continues to do so the longer term trend
remains in tact.
This index has behaved in text-book fashion as the great rally progresses, with each
decline being arrested by the previous high, and moving North in a series of steady steps.
The next big test comes on the next touch of the falling dynamic (which defines the upper
boundary of the triangle formation).
At some point soon this challenge will arrive - even if it gets rejected again one more time
this rejection is likely to be the last and should be short lived if we do see it happen first.
Once it does so it should rally with all world markets to 3109 and consolidate there awhile.
A break above 3110 would in turn be the next near term bull signal for world markets in
general, opening the way for a rally back to the ATH at 3322.
This has, so far at least, been a very reliable confirming back-up signal for other major
markets across the globe.
When it breaks higher it's therefore the confirming signal to get long of your local market too.
We're looking at a 10% average rally across all major stock markets when it triggers.
Yours might do even better ...
Be lucky.
GDOW: Global Dow Limit Down all over the WorldGlobal Dow: GDOW Limit Down Across the World
The pattern here is similar to GOOG (without the double tops)
and shows how all major market indices have fallen under the
spell of the high-tech mantra. What's good for Google is good
for the world, well, world markets anyway.
Critical support for this index lies at 2967. The low so far is
2276 today. Come what may later today, this index has to
hold closing values at 2967.
It's probing the lower parallel and whilst it holds up the Global
Dow (and therefore all major markets too) has a good chance
of rallying from here, the perfect spot.
But the 2967 level is effectively limit down for the Global
Dow. A close below here will tip this index back into bear
territory again, forcing back down to 2920 to begin with and
then after a small counter-rally back down to 2887 at least
and then most likely back to 2802.
US/China stocks ratio approaching first demand zoneRatio between SPY and FXI approaching first demand zone, after the rejection at 1,618 fib, backed by negative momentum divergence.
Value area between MA10/MA30 maybe help a possible bounce to 5,44 in the ratio.
Pays to be short SPY and long FXI.
Cheers
Panos