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GDX

GDX - the beginning of the endThe GDX Gold Miners is one of my personal favourite, and I have had been following it closely over the last couple of years. Since August 2020, where 95% of position was cleared, there was hardly any sustainable long term rally, albeit the March to June 2021 rally that I actually missed. Since then, it pulled back, and is about to revisit the last major lows. This is the beginning of the end... as in, the bearishness is ending. Now, this could take months to pan out and perhaps about 5% downside risk to go. The daily chart had prices at a lower range having gapped down early in the week. Unlike equities, the recovery was mild, if at all, with Friday gapping down instead. In the form of a megaphone, the range is now going to widen, but am expecting more downside to the target of about 31.50-32.00. Technicals support the weakness, albeit not extremely weak... just not strong. Looking for a higher low, with MACD bullish divergence in the month to come. Would not be surprised if it breaks down of the megaphone and then breaks back in again to be super bullish. Until then... I am sitting on my hands.
AMEX:GDX
by Auguraltrader
3
GDX gold miner ETF7.18.21 GDX : This market can be a tradable market. You can look at the daily and weekly charts and see this. There is a more important reason to talk about this market. There are things a trader can do that can actually sabotage the ability to be profitable because the trader is so risk adverse, that trader will add indicators and filters that result in avoidance of taking trades because of an overwhelming fear of losing trades. This decision could even be conscious or unconscious, and even unintentional, but the end result will create a lot more work, and fewer trades as well as losing trades. The impact of taking trades that have a high probability of be stopped out and not producing acceptable targets can result in strategies that will slow down the trading, but they never really address a meaningful understanding of market dynamics that actually help you find a good trade with a reasonable stop and a decent target. If you really fear the market, you will find ways to slow down your trading. The problem is that this will not help you find a high Quality trade. I believe that certain strategies show that the trader is trying to avoid losing trades, and stress, but may also indicate that he may not have an effective awareness of price dynamics, or structure, and other factors that would be helpful in finding quality trades. However, you can certainly work hard, and have good intentions, but never really figure out how to find the trades that are more reliable, and therefore give you more confidence because they will find your trade location, and result in a decent target in a manner that will give you a higher probability for success. It is important to avoid losing trades, and it is important in finding trades that give you a good profit for the risk you are taking. Choosing bad tools can ruin you as a trader.
AMEX:GDX
by ScottBogatin
1
$1800 for Gold could be major support$1800 for the gold bugs seems to be a Goldilocks number. Recent support has been tested several times but a break out from the recent downtrend at first looked like a false breakout. If we were to take that swing high on this latest bullish move, the consensus target of $2000 should be easily met, even $2100 is doable. For the likes of a royalty company the fluctuations in the metals is less relevant but a higher precious metal market does bring outside interest back into these assets, so the likes of Vox Royalty will be benefiting from the current appreciation in the yellow metal. They both have shown a swing low buy the dip from mid-June, so some correlation currently on show.
TVC:GOLD
by TH_Analysis
GDX Gold Miners Hard DropHave not been posting nor updating publicly... but private circle saw the recent run up, and my suspicion that it would not hold. Circles were target points that were "surprisingly" met. (I dont know how to post the snapshots here, but anyways...) Then this last week saw that GDX cut right through a target level earlier than expected. A new support target is set, but I still suspect that there is more to come. Gap Downs are hard, and on very high volume. This down move is exacerbated with a spiking USD, falling Gold prices and Equities at risk. Not yet ripe. Wait for it.
AMEX:GDX
by Auguraltrader
5
Gold Forecast – Real Or False Breakout?A few weeks ago we had a look into Gold cycles, Intermarket forecasts, and COT. At that moment gold was flagging. As you know it usually follows this pattern very well. But it doesn’t mean always. The current breakout wasn’t qualified as we didn’t have a downclose candle prior to the breakout candle. Moreover, in 2012 we had a similar situation and it was a false breakout. So, I want to see more price action to figure out what is happening. In case, this breakout turns to be real, the market will target 2600 in 1 – 3 years. With all that in mind, let’s have a closer look into smaller time frames. Last week the price tested the 1856 level. It was previously a strong resistance. So, no surprise price found support there. The 4h MA200 is at 1837. Technically it should be enough to build a base and start a new wave to the upside with targets 1932 and 1960. This pattern is valid till the price holds above 1800. If this level fails, the bears could take control of this market.
COMEX:GC1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
GDX : RESET / POSITION TRADE / HEDGEDuring the last three-month trading period, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has generated net inflows of 731.35 million. More importantly, we can see that the greatest selling pressures emerged after the Pfizer vaccine news was released on November 9th. This suggests that the market is simply undergoing a temporary reaction to a news event and that further downside in GDX seems unlikely because any additional vaccine announcements would probably do little to change the underlying environment. Moving out to an even longer-term view, we can see further evidence that these assertions are accurate because the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF has actually generated net inflows of 2.37 billion during the last three years. All together, these trend divergences tell us that investors might have an opportunity to profit from recent paradigm shifts in the precious metals markets. While this short-term enthusiasm might be moderately favorable for U.S. stock benchmarks into the end of 2020, we think that the prospects for economic deterioration during the first-quarter period of 2021 might be enough to send investors right back into safe-haven assets. Ultimately, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF provides an alternative strategy for investors that are interested in moving deeper into the precious metals sector and its expense ratio of 0.52% remains near the middle of the range for the category as a whole. SOURCE : INCOME GENERATOR, THE INCOME MACHINE / SEEKING ALPHA seekingalpha.com
AMEX:GDXLong
by TradingMavericks
GDX FORECAST AND COMMENTARY - VANECK VECTORS ETF - GOLDGDX in the buy zone below green line. Stoploss below white line. Profits are lines above. The only thing stopping this thing from going up is the price of gold. I'm personally bullish on gold and recently bought some. Gold is trading pretty high and could absolutely go lower, don't think it can't. I have a good friend who has been buying gold for the last 20 years and he's praying for it go lower, haha. In all seriousness though the Maxx Momentum indicator showed a squeeze to the down side, so it could drop past 31. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS IS COMMENTARY AND RECORD KEEPING ONLY. Be safe out there.
AMEX:GDXLong
by SatoriTrades
VOX HighlightsFirst Quarter 2021 Highlights • Record revenue of $539,980 and gross profit of $479,271 reported for the quarter, with inaugural revenues received from the Koolyanobbing royalty; • Increased producing royalty asset count from one asset at May 2020 listing to four assets by Q1 2021 quarter-end; • Strong balance sheet position at period end, including cash on hand of $10,723,135, working capital of $9,117,150 and total assets of $29,024,889; • Completed three portfolio transactions to acquire an additional ten royalties, reaching a total critical mass of 50 royalties and streams; • Completed an overnight marketed public offering for aggregate gross proceeds of C$16.85M; • Subsequent to March 31, 2021: - Announced a strategic partnership with Electric Royalties Limited (TSX-V: ELEC) and the potential divestment of two non-core graphite royalties for C$2.9M; and - The Company appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as their auditors effective April 30, 2021. About the Koolyanobbing Royalty The Koolyanobbing royalty is an uncapped royalty of 2% on the average/tonne Free on Board ("FOB") sales value of iron ore extracted from the Deception Deposit on mining lease M77/1258. Prior to Vox acquiring the Koolyanobbing royalty from Vonex Limited ("Vonex") in 2020, a historical pre-payment of the royalty in the sum of A$3,000,000 was made by Cliffs Asia Pacific Iron Ore Pty Ltd to Vonex. As previously disclosed in Vox's filing statement dated May 12, 2020, no royalty cash flows are payable to Vox until this pre-payment amount has been exhausted. The outstanding balance as of December 31, 2020, was A$1,782,032. Vox has entered into a binding agreement with Yilgarn Iron Pty Ltd pursuant to which Vox will extinguish the outstanding balance of the Koolyanobbing pre-payment through a cash payment of A$1,782,032 within five business days from the execution date of the agreement. Following payment of the settlement amount, effective January 1, 2021, Vox will earn royalty revenues from the Koolyanobbing royalty. Royalty revenues associated with the Koolyanobbing (Deception Pit) royalty over the past two years and forecast for 2021 are as follows: 2019 = $724,198 2020 = $493,769 2021 Forecast = $600,000 – $800,000 The Deception Pit and the Altair Pit to the north are currently being mined at a rate of 1.1Mtpa – 1.3Mtpa. Historical royalty attributable annual production on the Vox royalty tenure (M77/1258, see Figure 2) has averaged 180,000t – 360,000t and Vox management expect this royalty attributable production rate to increase in coming years as mining transitions further north within M77/1258. For more information on Koolyanobbing, please visit the Mineral Resources website at: www.mineralresources.com.au
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by TH_Analysis
GDX, Gold Futures & RoyaltiesWith inflation expectations high and the purchasing power of fiat currency under threat, the traditional store of value is gold. Retail traders have fallen fowl to the manipulation of the yellow metal with the likes of JP Morgan paying $920 million in settlements. New regulations could turn the tide which will allow the price and fundamentals to make sense once again. One way of getting around the inflationary pressures and the price volatility within the precious metals space, is to invest in a royalty company. Red Cloud Securities likes Vox Royalty, as does Crux Investor. From Red Cloud: Vox Royalty Corp. (TSXV:VOX, BUY, C$5.70 target, David A. Talbot) announced it has recognized preliminary record revenue of C$668k (or US$540k) in Q1/21, below our expectations of C$766k. There were no operating costs attached (cash operating margin was 100%) for the quarter as all revenue stemmed from royalties, not streams. Key highlights in the quarter included initial revenue from the Koolyanobbing royalty (uncapped at 2% of FOB sales value royalty) which had iron ore mined at the recently commissioned Altair Pit; increased production from the Hidden Secret deposit, covered by the Dry Creek royalty of Karora Resources (TSX:KRR, BUY, C$9.00 target, David A. Talbot); and rebounding diamond prices in the quarter associated with the Brauna royalty. We believe the company’s revenue should continue to rise going forward, at least through 2023, and expect seven paying royalties by year-end (up from just a single royalty one year ago). FY21 guidance is also forecasted for C$1.7M to C$2.5M, while we forecast about US$2.9M given our higher gold price assumption. With the combination of ongoing royalty acquisitions, and further increases in revenue and earnings as recently acquired royalties come online (read more), we expect the valuation gap between VOX and peers to diminish. VOX currently trades at a P/NAV of 0.7x peers at 1.2x. Underlying Fundamentals Inflation has superseded the global pandemic as the primary risk affecting every corner of the globe. The Federal Reserve insists that the inflationary pressures are transient, not pervasive, though the CPI / PCE data shows that CPI has jumped month-on-month at the fastest rate in several years. Commodity prices have run up to all-time highs as bottlenecks in supply chains create an imbalance to increasing demand on a year-on-year basis, but we have also seen a massive rise in inflationary pressures from the price of energy, particularly through the price of oil. But to the frustration of the retail investor, the price of gold has failed to go parabolic. The largest economies are looking to spend big on infrastructure, and technologies are pushing towards a global target of net-zero carbon emissions over the next few decades. Gold’s usage within safety-critical technologies and components, fuel cell technology and carbon capture industries are pushing the physical demand at an increased pace with the current industrial/technology markets equating to approximately 7% of total demand. In the long term, gold serves as a strong strategic component in many portfolios, not only for its diversification benefits but also for its returns. As a store of wealth, protection against diminishing US dollar purchasing power and as a very liquid Tier 1 asset, pension funds and institutional money managers tend to allocate 5%-10% of the portfolio to the precious metal. Consumer demand driven by the Indian and Chinese markets is a large proponent of gold jewellery, and the Jewellery markets equate to 34% of the total gold demand. As the overall economic outlook and Risk-On markets do well, these consumers purchase more gold. When times are uncertain, as we witnessed in 2020 during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the consumers reduce their purchases of jewellery, but the institutions step into the market to de-risk their portfolio, as Gold is a safe haven portfolio hedge, which decreases the price volatility during the uncertain times. The New Regulatory Framework Gold is a High-Quality Liquid Assets and as of 2019, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) reclassified physical gold as a Tier 1 asset. Gold was previously viewed as a risky asset, classified as a Tier 3 asset, which meant that gold could only be carried on banks’ balance sheet at 50% of the market value for reserve purposes. Since the Great Financial Crash, a lot has been done within the banking system to try and protect the broader economy from banks blowing up, as Lehman Brothers did. As part of the regulatory framework, banks have been working under Basel 111 rules and the time is coming for some of the rules to be enforced on the gold markets. These new regulations are scheduled to be introduced for European banks at the end of June 2021 and in the UK from 1 January 2022, affecting all London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) member banks. The risks to the bullion banks are that they trade in an OTC derivatives market, not holding much, if any, allocated gold. Allocated gold is when an investor is allocated gold and is the outright owner of a certain amount of physical bullion. There will be a requirement for banks holdings to meet a ratio limit between tangible assets and unallocated assets. The ratio is named Required Stable Funding and the crux of the matter is that if the bullion banks can no longer trade their paper and unallocated gold without holding physical allocated assets, the derivatives market could collapse. The 3 parts of the Basel 111 regulations that affect the paper gold markets are: • The Available Stable Funding factor (ASF) is applied to the sources of a bank’s funding on the liability side of its balance sheet. Depending on the liability (shareholders’ equity, customer deposits, interbank loans etc.) they are multiplied by a factor, from 100% for the most stable forms of funding, such as Tier 1 bank equity, to 0% for the least stable. Being on their balance sheets, unallocated gold owed to a bank’s deposit customers is to be given a Basel III ASF of 0%, which means it will not be permitted to be a source of funding for any balance sheet assets, which must therefore be funded from other liabilities. • The Required stable funding (RSF) is to be applied to a bank’s assets. Unallocated gold positions are to be valued at 85% of their market value. Note that allocated gold, being held in custody, is not on bank balance sheets (except where the bank actually owns physical gold in its own right) and is therefore not involved in the calculation. • The Net stable funding requirement (NSFR) is the ASF divided by the RSF and must be at least 100% at all times. The bullish scenario is that LBMA member banks have to find a lot of physical gold, increasing the demand and pushing up the price. The second bullish scenario for gold stackers is that with the removal of the paper gold positions that suppressed the gold price from inflating against the M2 money supply / global fiat currency expansion, the physical gold price could adjust towards higher prices in line with inflation. Technicals From the chart, we can deduce that the futures market is currently breaking higher and the miners are too. It is conceivable that as physical gold reaches $2k t/oz prices and beyond what is likely to happen in the derivatives markets, a lot of investors will pile in, making the current price of Vox Royalty look very cheap for such a fast-growth company.
AMEX:GLD
by TH_Analysis