Opening (IRA): GDX April 16th 27 Short Put... for a .42/contract credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 44.5%, adding some miners out in the April monthly on this weakness. 1.58% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 12.82% annualized. As usual, will take profit on approaching worthless or roll out/take assignment and sell call against if in the money toward expiry (whichever pays more credit).
GDX
OPENING (IRA): GDX MARCH 19TH 31 SHORT PUT... for a .60/contract credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 36.7% and expiry-specific at 39.2%, opening a 19 delta short put with a 30.40 break even in the March monthly, since I've already got some on in February. 1.97% ROC as a function of notional risk.
Will run to approaching worthless and/or roll out if in-the-money or take assignment/sell call against (whichever pays most from a credit standpoint).
Gold: We have entered a bear cycle.This long-term chart of GLD reveals that we have entered the next bearish cycle for the Gold market. This cycle of the Gold market peaked a couple of months ago and seems to be following the same trend from the last cycle. In fact, if we use the fib-retracement tool to plot the pullback from the first pulldown from the peak, we can see that GLD has bounced up and found minor support on the 100% fib trend retracement line.
We can now expect a rise to the 61.8%-38.2% levels before falling down from there again. Be careful shorting puts or going long in those levels as we may never see another ATH for months if not years.
Trade Idea: Short GLD around $171-$180.
While it is unlikely for it to keep rising higher to new ATHs anytime soon, you can set stop-losses above at a comfortable level while leaving enough wiggle room. We can expect GLD and Gold to continue to fall from those $175 levels down below the $156 fib support, and then the 148 support area. Once the price breaks those levels, we can expect a high-velocity waterfall sell-off to the $136 support area, where we can also take some profits on the way. The key support area and the final price target is the parallel channel support around $107.5-$115, which we can expect to see in anywhere from 9 months to 5 years.
GDX, is this a forgotten treasure?Hello everyone,
So Gold is finally back in a buy/accumulation zone, even though DXY may have more room to run I doubt this will translate in to heavy downside for gold. 1650 maybe? However, the stars look alligned once again to buy gold, or in this case GDX (Gold miners ETF). You can see the trade parameters in the chart. But this is definetely an opportunity like no other, whilst everyone is still lookin at Bitcoin, or Stocks, nobody is expecting a resurgence from gold at this point. However as we see volatility is not dead and gold does like volatile times. Even though this trade will take patience, and most likely won't payoff like crypto. The optimal upside is around a 150%, and in a mania case 400-600%. And the risk is -25%, I mean, it's a casual day in crypto or even stocks these days... Buying now is like buying BTC at 10k. Which BTW i've also advised in doing heavily. It's the same mantra as always - Buy low, sell high. However, most will do it the other way around.
Also check out my other ideas, even though I don't post often. When I do it's usually when things are CHEAP or EXPENSIVE.
As always, stay safe and stay liquid.
GOLD NEXT WEEK #09Weekly Forecast
Topics:
00:00-02:42: Market sentiment, bond selling, lack of confidence in U.S. Gov. starting to show. Brief Summary of week 08.
02:43-06:18: Price Action forecast = targets. Stock's looking favorable and which one's to chose?
06:19-07:25: I'll answer questions, Share some of my own stock pick's etc.
About Gold Next Week #
A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold price for the coming week. I'll also follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points.
Topics
- Market sentiment, Gold Shares, EFT's A-z, $DXY/Dollar and US10Year T-note
System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some Market Data.
Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade.
Best Regards
OmarDjurhuus
GDX... still in bear modeGDX... no change in trajectory - bearish.
Previously, called and exited near the top in August 2020 and expected this bearish tones.
Noted BRB Buy Signal triggered as well as the RPM attemping to turn bullish.
Otherwise, MACD is clearly heading down and GDX gapped down to break two support levels in one candle.
More downside seen, at least to 30. possible maximum stretch to 26.
TOPPING PATTERNS: SPX and the SPY/GDX ratioThese ratios are KEY to understanding the valuation of the marketplace, SPY/GDX being just one of many.
Either equities are going to fall, or mining stocks are about to explode. The latter is in my view, exceptionally unlikely, as we see bearish price action in gold across many of the major G20 currencies.
IF there is anything that a gold investor should recognize, it's deflationary environments.
SO then, what comes next? An important question:
Why is it that other asset classes are moving in the reflation trade, but the asset amongst the most sensitive to this environment, is lagging behind the leading commodities?
The answer: LIQUIDATION RISK
The argument that there are other assets that provide interest or dividends that make them more attractive, or provide some sense of opportunity cost, is a straw man argument. Many of the mining stocks provide dividends at a greater return than that of treasury yields, albeit not as high as those in oil or financials. The concern is that the mining sector has crumbled beyond these opportunity costs in terms of their relative valuations with respect to their competing assets.
US Oil and Energy prices , which as of now have been artificially bid up with temporary demand from the Texas grid shutdowns, are among the few things keeping the reflation trade intact. Bond yields and financials are directly correlated to this broadened move in oil. Once the temporary demand retracts from the marketplace, I expect to see a massive deflationary environment come into the market. IF oil reverses, expect to see bond yields and financials to reverse and bleed into other asset classes across the market.
Additionally, with the GBP seeing artificial appreciation from the news related to the easiness of BoE's negative interest, the DXY has weakened slightly. This will not last once UST/USB yields breakdown.
The market now faces a SEVERAL KEY hurdles in the near term:
Maintaining oil prices
Maintaining yields
Maintaining equity prices
Maintaining a slightly weak or sideways Dollar
These are the stages where money get's trapped and the demanded liquidity becomes unobtainable. Best of luck.
GOLD -Inverse to BTC Bullrun - Cup & Handle BreakoutGOLD -Inverse to BTC Bullrun - Cup & Handle Breakout w/ BTC Scale Out/GOLD Scale In Target Areas
BUYZONE = 1700 - 1650
OR
Break Up & Out of Handle
OR
BTC Hits Resistance at Middle of Current Uptrend (img attached)
AND
As BTC Approaches Top of Current Uptrend (img attached)
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
OPENING (IRA): GDX FEBRUARY 19TH 33 SHORT PUT... for a .42/contract credit.
Notes: I have a smidge of SLV and GLD on, but didn't want to add to my GLD due to its crappy 30-day, and SLV drives me nuts somewhat with its lack of strike to strike granularity, so hitting the miners with a small position with a 30-day at 43.9% and its expiry-specific at 42.7%. 1.29% ROC at max; 10.5% annualized.