GDX
#SLV Almost Ready for the Continuation#SLV Setting up a bullish pennant on weekly and daily time frames. High volume run ups are usually followed by a period of consolidation before a continuation/reversal. Once silver breaks above the upper trendline and clears 23.55, SLV should start its move to $30+ by the end of the year. This is just the start for silver and gold and if it isn't a part of your portfolio yet, I'd strongly consider it. Do your own due diligence as always.
Nevermind the technicals. The fundamental's are enough.Lets see...
If it rises to the top of the channel. That would give it a whopping P.E. of 14
Not bad considering earnings growth of 25%+ over the next 5 years
Also nice dividends...
Most of the miners should be bought on any and all dips...
The dollar is about to turn on next bunch of confluenceTop of current multi-week trend (major)
.786 fib of current retracement (major)
Rsi divergence (major)
Double top? (major)
Democrats win more than expected (major)
.618 of previous multi-week trend(minor)
.382 of 2016 fib (minor)
Will it be a good winter?As long as the market doesn't crash. Because that will temporarily bring us out of trend.
GDX going down hardA quick note in the anatomy of the Gold Miners breakdown...
Basically,
the USD is ↗️
the SPX / Equities are ↘️
The Gold Price is ↘️
Miners cannot hold out in such scenarios, and technical breakdown mapped as in chart.
Gold Junior Minors, when to get on the trainLooking for GDXJ to break above 60 for a potential bull breakout with a target around 90
Or, a breakdown to the 200 day moving average to 42 to 48. It's harder to predict this bottom because of the expected upcoming volatility, so buy orders spread throughout this lower range is a good strategy to catch some (if not all) of that bottoming activity before the great bounce.
Of course there is always the chance it would break down even lower, but as always this is not financial advice, don't risk more than you can loose, etc.
The dollar looks bleakThe dollar is bouncing off its March trend and will soon need to break below its consolidation trend. The fall could be significant. Buy gold...
The wedge could break this weekMiners have bottomed for the quarter and have already started their next leg up
The wedge will break this weekI think it will pop higher. If it pops lower, then look to buy at the 2019 trend, which is also the D100ma.
The usual summer consolidation may end early this year (See DXY). This means that the bottom is already in. The next leg up has already started. However, the usual winter impulse move higher should still happen in late Nov or Dec.
Wedge formingSeems like it will pull back and bounce around the wedge for a bit longer. Maybe breakout closer to the election...
Gold C wave continuesWave 3 of 5 started this morning IMO. 1761 still the target, might be higher depending on length of waves. Good Luck
Long Silver herefaked a sellout. As usually those fakes are usually followed through with lots of people shorting and/or exiting off Silver. Hence the recent rise in SI, ES, NQ. Those should continue as a "NEW" bullish wave started. This wave should last between now and possible election if it can stretch that long.
Long Silver earlier this morning
Capricious Currency Curriculum The Euro/Dollar is signaling something significant on the MACRO level. I'll link the YouTube series that explains it in comments.
The recent technical breakout indicates where the next stop is and there are several ways to take advantage outside the FX market.
From a technical standpoint it appears the trajectory of the U.S. Dollar is heading towards 85 at the very least, with pitstops along the way.
Silver could be forming some kind of flag pattern. If so, either it breaks out higher or could drop out before it pops.
Gold is more stable than silver and is more likely to grind sideways or boringly drift higher before a big move.
Bitcorn is another way to play this however, longer term will it's crypto king status last?
S&P 500 is designed to go up longer term either way however, small positions are ideal as there is a mini capitulation risk in the case of delayed "stimulus" and the poor economic data that would roll out as result.
Trading is risky and should not be attempted by anyone, ever.
Long: SLV, GDX, MGC Futures, BTC, ETH, EEM
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, CCL EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, KREEARNINGS:
CCL (28/88/25.9%) and DAL (18/77/22.1%)* announce earnings on Thursday.
The DAL November 20th 21 delta, 2 x expected move 26/41 short strangle is paying 2.41 or 7.6% as a function of stock price (1.20 at 50% max; 3.8% as a function of stock price). I've pictured a short put here as the simplest play to get in on a sector that has been hammered by the pandemic, assuming you don't mind potentially being assigned at that price to work a longer-term play (i.e., covered calls).
CCL is small enough to play via short straddle, with the November 20th 15 short straddle paying 3.92 or 25.9% as a function of stock price (.98 at 25% max; 6.5% as a function of stock price). Alternatively, the > 2 x expected move 10/20 short strangle is paying .93 (.46 at 50% max; 3.0% as a function of stock price).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
TQQQ (41/103/30.2%)
XOP (19/60/17.3%)
USO (10/55/146%)
GDXJ (20/50/15.1%)
SLV (39/48/13.5%)
EWZ (21/46/14.1%)
XLE (30/44/131%)
XBI (36/45/13.0%)
GDX (19/42/12.7%)
SMH (27/47/11.2%)
QQQ (35/35/10.5%)
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (35/35/10.5%)
IWM (32/34/9.8%)
EFA (25/22/9.0%)
SPY (21/26/8.0%)
IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS/PREMIUM SELLING:
KRE (28/47/13.6%) (Current Yield: 3.83%)
SLV (39/48/13.5%) (No Yield; Precious Metals Position)
EWZ (21/46/14.1%) (Current Yield: 3.80%)
XLE (30/44/13.1%) (Current Yield: 7.52%)
XBI (36/45/13.0%) (Current Yield: .35%; Premium Selling Play)
SMH (27/47/11.2%) (Current Yield: 0.00%; Premium Selling Play)
QQQ (35/35/10.5%) (0.60% Yield; Premium Selling Play)
MUSINGS:
With the general elections now 29 days away, I'm not doing much here in terms of adding new positions. With the margin account in particular, I'm looking at going completely flat at or near October opex and then watching the show from the sidelines.
On the IRA/retirement account front, I'm already in most of the underlyings at the top of the implied volatility ladder, so don't anticipate doing much here anyway. I will naturally look at delta on a portfolio-wide basis to see whether I need additional delta one way or the other to make myself less directional running into the elections. We could, after all, conceivably see one of a variety of things depending on how things play out (i.e., relief rally, sell-off, "sideways nothing burger").
With Friday's sell-off, however, I'm tempted to add a smidge more of QQQ in the November cycle for my weekly 16 delta, 45 days 'til expiry broad market short put (the November 20th 16 delta 237 short put was paying 3.73 at the mid as of Friday close; 1.60% ROC as a function of notional risk).
* -- The first metric is where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
GLD vs. SPY Monthly chartSimilar wedge to 2016, we may have more strength behind the bullish thesis now especially with that volume spike $GDX $GLD $SPY $QQQ
The Absurdly Low Cost of SilverAny good trader or investor will tell you to buy low and sell high. Unfortunately, the masses tend to do the opposite- either because they follow the crowd into popular stocks/assets or they like something too much and make it personal (they believe strongly in something). In my opinion, the best way to actually measure value is to compare it to something. We all know TECH stocks are big right now- and they might continue to be for the next year or two. I don't know. But let's measure a hard asset against tech stocks to compare what is "low" vs "high". You can do this with oil, natural gas, coffee, lumber, toilet paper, etc.. In this case, I'm looking at silver compared to tech stocks (NDX). If you look at SILVER divided by the NASDAQ (SILVER/NDX), you get this really neat ratio that can help to identify the value of silver compared to the NASDAQ and look at the history of how the rotations work. You can be sure, SMART money is all over these ratio's. I prefer to buy low.
the miners are holding up ok -- GDX
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Good Old Gold- The Fibonacci Extension from the previous bull run should continue to be the frame for Gold's price action moving forward.
- OBV (On Balance Volume) on the macro level is trending upward indicating that the buying pressure outweighs selling pressure.
- OBV on the 4hr chart shows the recent sell off has corrected back down to a level where buying pressure should start to pick up.
- Between the 0.618 and 0.5 fib levels is a great place to accumulate a long position.
Long MGC +1 @ $1,880.70
