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GDX

THE WEEK AHEAD: COST, GDXJ/GDX, XOP, SLV, EWZA late "Week Ahead" post after a short road trip ... . EARNINGS: There aren't many options liquid underlying volatility contraction plays on tap this week. COST (35/38/6.8% (October)-10.1% (November) announces on Thursday after market close, but the volatility metrics aren't the greatest for a contraction play with 30-day at 38, the October monthly at expiry-specific 37.8%, and the November monthly at 34.8%. My general cut-off to pull the trigger on something is a 30-day greater than 50%, so I'm likely to pass on this one. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: TQQQ (42/103/33.7%) GDXJ (23/58/18.3%) XOP (17/55/17.8%) GDX (24/49/15.0%) SLV (45/48/15.2%) EWZ (20/48/15.1%) XLE (27/44/14.0%) SMH (25/40/12.2%) QQQ (36/37/11.6%) IWM (33/35/11.0%) Pictured here is a GDXJ November 20th 45/65 short strangle with the short options camped out at around the 20 delta that's paying 2.95 at the mid price. Although it's a little early for the November cycle (58 days until expiry) if like to keep things in that 45 day wheelhouse, this is the best bang for your buck as a function of stock price on the board, followed by XOP, GDX, and XLV. BROAD MARKET: QQQ (36/37/11.6%) IWM (33/35/11.0%) SPY (23/29/9.0%) EFA (23/24/7.5%) I've been engaging in programmatic 45 days until expiry, 16-delta short put selling in broad market in the highest 30-day implied instrument on the board. Here, it would be QQQ. However, there are only an October 30th (37 days) or a November 20th (58 days) expiry available, where the 16 delta strikes are paying 3.27 (the October 30th 235) and 4.22 (the November 20th 226). I've already got an October 30th short put hanging out there, so may just wait until next week when an early November weekly becomes available. IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: SLV (45/48/15.2%) EWZ (20/48/15.1%) KRE (26/44/14.5%)
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
2
GDX just giving way...Tracking gold, one can buy GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, and the associated specific funds. Having tracked Gold closely for the past three years, the white arrow marks a rough but a real exit point. Today the perfect storm is set... and pre-opening shows a gap down type of breakdown. Previously explained why and how GDX would not be doing well and when it should be doing well. IMHO, This is probably a deep retracement. Fun times to come! Here it goes part II.
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
1
GDX H1: SWING: Accumulation / BUY DIPS 20% gains (SL/TP)(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -24/7 uptime so constant updates GDX H1: SWING: Accumulation / BUY DIPS 20% gains (SL/TP)(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: GDX 1hour/candle chart review ::: TP BULLS is 20% gains soon ::: BUY/HOLD SETUP ::: chart looks strong right now ::: strong bottom confirmed with 3 tests ::: expecting more gains after DIP ::: BULLS should focus on buying DIPS ::: September strong month SILVER / GOLD ::: recommended strategy: BUY DIPS ::: near 41.50 best reload BULLS ::: TP BULLS is 20%+ gains ::: if there's a mild dip just buy it ::: BUY/HOLD - swing trade settup ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: pullback/DIPS ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/REVERSAL
AMEX:GDXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
2
Gold Miners - the cards stacked up against, to fall...It’s done. With gold being on the retracement, and perhaps a large one at that, the gold miners (ETF, GDX) is under siege and under pressure to retrace hard. Technically, despite a long tail, GDX clocked a lower low, which broke down of a support line briefly. The MACD is clearly broken down ahead of price. So, what is the risk? Plenty... the miners tend to do well under conditions where gold as a commodity is in a bull rally, borrowing rates are low, and particularly, that equities are rallying. The S&P500 as well as major indices like the Nasdaq leading the downdraft of late, accentuating the risks to the Gold miners. Given all the factors, it would appear an insurmountable effort for the miners to stage a huge rally out of the technical backdrop. Not that it’s impossible, but it has very low probability.
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: M, CLDR, CRWD EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, QQQTHE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: M (41/103/September 18.7%): Announces Wednesday before market open. Potential Plays: September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 1.30 as of Friday close, .33 at 25% max. September 18th 5/7/7/9 iron fly, paying 1.07 as of Friday close, .27 at 25% max. Look to take profit at 25% max. CLDR (68/116/September 20.1%): Announces Wednesday after market close. Potential Plays: September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 2.60 as of Friday close, .65 at 25% max. September 18th 9/13/13/17 iron fly, paying 2.13 as of Friday close, .53 at 25% max. Look to take profit at 25% max. CRWD (32/74/September 15.0%): Announces Wednesday after market close. Potential Plays: September 18th 101/145 short strangle, paying 4.03 as of Friday close, 2.01 at 50% max. September 18th 100/105/140/145. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to put on a setup that pays at least one-third the width of the wings in credit. Comments: Not a ton is shaking next week for options liquid underlyings, but here are what appear to me to be the best candidates for volatility contraction plays. Naturally, I'm just preliminarily pricing these out to see whether they're potentially worthwhile, and actual strikes are likely to change somewhat running into earnings as price moves. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED/OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (45/56/15.2%) XLE (24/39/11.2%) GDX (22/47/13.3%) GDXJ (21/58/15.7%) EWZ (17/44/12.3%) XOP (13/50/14.1%) GDXJ is paying the most as a function of stock price (15.7%), followed by SLV (15.2%), XOP (14.1%), and GDX (13.3%). WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING: The GDXJ October 16th 15/75 short strangle: 2.15, 3.6% as a function of stock price, The SLV October 16th 22/32 short strangle: .97, 3.6% as a function of stock price. The XOP October 16th 45/63 short strangle: 1.84, 3.5% as a function of stock price. The GDX October 16th 38/47 short strangle: .84, 2.0% as a function of stock price. Comments: I've already got a miners play on, so am likely to avoid getting into another closely correlated underlying here. BROAD MARKET: QQQ (29/32/8.8%) IWM (22/28/7.6%) EFA (17/20/5.6%) SPY (12/22/5.3%) WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING: The QQQ October 16th 257/320 short strangle is paying 6.51, 2.2% as a function of stock price. The IWM October 16th 140/170 short strangle, 2.93, 1.9%. The EFA October 16th 60/69 short strangle, .93, 1.4%. The SPY October 16th 317/391 short strangle, 4.95, 1.4%. Comments: In the IRA, I've been mechanically selling 45 days 'til expiry puts at the two times expected move strike (basically, the 16 delta) and will pretty much continue to do so until 30-day drops below 20%. There's always hesitancy to continue to do this at successive all-time-highs, and, yes, it is likely I will be assigned shares at some point in a >2 times expected move sell-off, after which I'll proceed to cover. That being said, I've got an inordinate amount of undeployed buying power after all the acquisitional short put ladders I put on in the sell-off have come off; I'd rather take some risk here to earn "something," all while keeping a reasonable amount of dry powder free to take advantage if we get another one of those bodice rippers we had in mid-March. This week, I'll follow the implied volatility, and as of Friday close, that was in the QQQ's. DIVIDEND EARNERS: XLU (21/23/7.1%) EWA (20/24/7.0%) TLT (18/19/4.8%) EFA (17/20/5.6%) EWZ (17/44/12.3%) IYR (17/24/6.5%) HYG (17/14/2.8%) SPY (16/22/5.3%) EMB (11/11/2.7%) The Brazilian exchange-traded fund leads the pack for the umpteenth week in a row, with XLU and EWA in distant second and third places. I'm fine with continuing to hit EWZ via acquisitional short put over and over again if that's where the implied volatility leads, but, yes, it's kind of getting old. For what it's worth: The 2 times expected move EWZ October 16th 28 short put is paying .36 per contract as of Friday close (1.2% as a function of stock price). Key: The first number in parentheses is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price that the specified monthly expiry at-the-money short straddle is paying.
C
by NaughtyPines
IS THE DOLLAR ABOUT TO BOTTOM?You need to be paying close attention to the Dollar. We have some history written right on the chart if we'll just take a moment to interpret it. My interpretation might be different than yours but that's why we share our ideas.. and it would be a boring world if we all thought the same way. I don't watch the Dollar very often but I see very obvious price cycles on multiple levels going on here. There appears to be a potential larger cycle low that will begin pulling down on the Dollar over the next 7-8 years. However, the Dollar could be bottoming in the near term on a smaller cycle. I think it has the potential to rally back up to the upper trend (just like 1999-2002) before the long drop. Notice the symmetrical triangle and where the measured move is pointing to- I can't say if that target has been reached yet or if it's even valid but the measured move is near that upper trend. It'll be interesting to see if the Dollar can make that climb one more time (107-111?) before the likely descent. It'll also be interesting to see how precious metals respond if the Dollar does manage to rally again.. I would be thrilled to see another discount in the metals but there's a chance that the best discount is now.. There's no promise of lower prices in Gold & Silver again with what we're witnessing today.
TVC:DXY
by gghsusa
3