Miners need more consolidation before taking off from wedgeI don't think it's quite their time yet, I see a fall, a month of meandering, before launching and hitting my green target.
GDX
2XBEAR JUNIOR MINERS LOOKING GOOD FROM HERE!It's time for precious metals to take a cooler.
I noticed AMEX:JDST 's options for $5 is off the chart compared to other months. I bought calls for .20 for $5 strike price in September. I anticipating these going to 2.00 by then which is 1000% return.
I also think AMEX:DUST is worthy of buying at these levels too - except they don't have miners, but I see a 500% return for this stock by the fall.
I will also link to some supportive ideas following this post.
2XBEAR MINERS LOOKING GOOD FROM HERE!It's time for precious metals to take a cooler.
I noticed JDST's options for $5 is off the chart compared to other months. I bought calls for .20 for $5 strike price in September. I anticipating these going to 2.00 by then which is 1000% return.
I also think DUST is worthy of buying at these levels too - except they don't have miners, but I see a 500% return for this stock by the fall.
I will also link to some supportive ideas following this post.
Gold is double topping!Gold is double topping, will fall into the summer, before taking off. If we over-extend lower to the $2,000 level, then it'll be in fall that gold takes off.
Taiwan war cancels this plan. A birdflu pandemic doesn't.
Double Top in Gold That Strangely is Correlated with NividiaDid you know gold and Nividia have an 81% correlation? That's strange. (chart in comments)
I see a double top in gold.
TTM Squeeze firing on weekly, daily, 4 hourly and it's a continuation of a squeeze on the hourly. TTM Squeeze's usually bounce off the opposite side when it breaks/fakes out. Outside an exogenous event I see pm's taking the summer off and reawakening in the fall when the dollar tops out after the BOJ sells US treasuries after China devalues their currency after the dollar spikes when Europe cuts rates soon. It's going to be an epic chain reaction.
The FED will cut rates heading into the election and if Trump wins he'll ride the last meme wave until it crashes and reinstitute a gold standard, or if Biden wins we get CBDC's.
I'll be looking for low IV OTM calls in the fall after the FED cuts rates...
GDX break out Have been tracking Gold and the Gold miners ETF GDX... It has been a while and it appears that Gold and GDX are at least in sync again.
GDX appears to have closed the week above the long term range and just broke out, if not about to...
MACD and VolDiv have not yet crossed over but indications show. The TD Setup is still showing primary bullish and a new Setup is forming, with a target to close above 36.26 within the next two months.
Is the Silver to Gold Ratio due to tripleWallStSilver
Silver Bugs have had to bear many decades of no euphoric price action
Like the saying goes every dog has it's day
And in speculation a Bull market in one sector often means another sector get's neglected
Things don't move in lock step
It's just the nature of speculating/investing which we can't control but also offers us opportunity
I believe Silver should be a relative out-performer of most things (not all things)
And cheap prices
or cheap ratio's tilt the odds in your favour.
GOLD MINERS GDX - 4 Years of pain?A inverse #HVF appears to be in progress on the #GDX
@TheCryptoSniper
Coincides with a probability that gold has put in a major secular top being pushed down by positive real rate environment.
Jaguar Mining Gold = micro-cap scam: Be Cautious Zcash is Better
Jaguar Mining Announces Ten To One Reverse Split
Jaguar Mining this morning announced that the company will be going ahead with a previously proposed share consolidation on the basis of one common share for every ten shares currently held by shareholders. Further, the company intends to conduct a $0.08 dividend on a post-consolidated basis five days after the completion of the consolidation.
The consolidation, as per the company, was approved by an annual general and special meeting of shareholders held on June 5, 2017 – a mere three years ago. The company was provided with conditional approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 17, 2020. The effective date for the ten to one reverse split is said to be August 27, 2020.
thedeepdive.ca
Are Gold & Silver done?Don't think #GOLD is done by any means.
HOWEVER.......
Sold some positions around the date of bearish engulfing. As of today the precious metal is still @ that price level. We missed a lil more upside but it wasn't much oi the whole scheme of things.
#SILVER shows same exact signs except the Bearish Engulfing.
AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV
Junior Miners will fall 10-20% before catapulting in Mid MayMiners didn't accelerate to the upside like metals because they do better in lower interest rate environments, whereas metals do better for volatility events. You could buy ITM puts here on JNUG, NUGT, GDX or GDXJ and see a good return, or just wait for this to bottom in a couple of weeks and ride the lightning. THIS opportunity is one of the 2 that I see this year where you can buy OTM calls and this will be like Gamestop imo.
THIS ISN'T FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Endeavor Silver is about to blast off!This has broken out of two downward trends and Powell is about to be dovish with the dollar and let inflation rip again for Biden to get reelected.
I see a VERY ATTRACTIVE options play right now - Endeavor's May Call contract at $2.50 is .20 right now and the O/I is off the charts. $5 is .05 or $5 a call. If silver blasts off like I think then these guys could rocket past that was they hit $12 in 2011. August is the next options expiration month, and has some high volume, but not as high as May.
I think buying calls here would be a good choice. If you're concerned then brake up your months from May and August. I expect miners and metals to get pummeled this summer when BOJ announces rate CUTS when they implode. I'd diversify into the dollar or USDJPY or USDCNY at that point cause China will devalue their currency after the BOJ cuts rates to negative (to stay competitive).
THIS ISN'T FINANCIAL ADVICE!! I am making a purchase into these securities as well, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Gold Pulls in More Fools, Rally to $1950 then FadeI rally between now and April-May looks like a good risk-reward, however those gains are likely to get faded very fast as capital flows back into discounted equities, and other growth assets
Of all the minerals mined from the Earth, none is more useful than gold (this is speculation). Its usefulness is derived from a diversity of special properties.
Gold conducts electricity, does not tarnish, is very easy to work, can be drawn into wire, can be hammered into thin sheets, alloys with many other metals, can be melted and cast into highly detailed shapes, has a wonderful color and a brilliant luster.
Gold is a memorable metal that occupies a special place in the boomer mind.
TD9 count, parabolic, MSM euphoria/ fear - Gold to Cool Offthe fundamentals on gold aren't good:
1. its a rock, King Midas can make the supply infinite
2. mining it is an environmental mess and energy waste
3. value is primarily speculative
4. ton of overhead bagholders from 1,500-2,000 days
5. crypto currency stealing new retail
6. being hoarded by fragile states/ regimes
7. regulatory risk during crisis times
8. massive derivatives & futures market pressure
9. new chemistry could obsolete its small set of utility applications
10. Peter Schiff, Rickards, Clif High, etc baby boomer ponzi crew
11. "Everyone Knows" its a good investment now right? Too Good to Be True pitfall
12. Its just a shiny metal from underground
13. Millennials are already post-gold, post-diamonds
Gold forms Bearish Engulfing, Silver at resistance🚨 🚨 🚨
#Gold is forming a Bearish Engulfing on the daily charts.
Volume is almost there for a confirmation of the pattern.
Money Flow is low.
Overbought.
Weekly we see Gold forming a doji = battle bulls & bears.
#Silver is at a major resistance.
This should be an interesting week...
AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:SLV
Opening (IRA): GDX February 16th 29 Monied Covered Call... for a 28.24 debit.
Comments: GDX (IVR/IV 40.8/ 32.9) is at the top of my IV screener for ETF's (along with GDXJ, which has higher IV, but is less liquid).
Buying stock and selling the -71 delta call against, resulting in a max profit potential of .76 ($76)/contract; 2.69% ROC at max; 1.35% at 50% max. That .76 isn't massively compelling, but the ROC is "decent" for what I'm trying to do in the IRA on a month-month basis.
Opening (IRA): GDX August 16th 22 Monied Covered Call... for a 21.01 debit.
Comments: There isn't much that is weak in this market ... . Adding a rung to my GDX position out in August at a strike lower than what I currently have on. (See Posts Below).
.99 max on BPE of 21.01; 4.7% ROC at max; 2.4% at 50% max.
Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this.
1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency.
3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it.
4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances.
5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains.
7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed.
8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed.
9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory.
10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion.
11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits.
12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades.
Macro Fibonacci
Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low.
Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level.
In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading.
Historical Price Action
Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for...
1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level.
2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break.
3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA.
Trading Setup
Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear...
1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level.
2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break.
3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support.
Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path.
The U.S. Dollar
The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting.
1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart.
2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal.
3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel.
As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery.
Treasury Yields
Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long
Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum
Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP
Futures: (Not yet)
Opened (IRA): GDX March 15th 27 Monied Covered Call... for a 26.21 debit.
Comments: 42.2 IV/32.8% 30-day IV. Before I went to take a nap, added a "rung" on weakness here to my position, buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against. I already have a February monied on (See Post Below), so went out to March for this setup.
The call IV at the 27 strike: 37.32%. The put side at the same strike: 29.49% with their respective maxes being .79 for the 27 monied; .49 for the 27 short put.
As previously noted, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where you don't get much BP relief by hanging out in the options. This cost 26.21 to put on in the IRA; the 27 short put would cost 26.51. Compare on margin: 26.21 buying power effect for this setup, 3.18 BPE for the 27 short put. Put another way: you generally don't do this setup on margin because it isn't BP efficient.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis/Break Even: 26.21
Max Profit (The Short Call Strike Price - Cost Basis): .79 ($79)
ROC %-age At Max: 3.01%/15.70% Annualized
ROC %-age at 50% Max: 1.51%/7.85% Annualized
Gold to $3000Gold has tested the $2000 area twice and failed. If it makes new all time highs, above 2050-2070, it could easily run to 3k. One of the few spots of strength in the market along with bitcoin since the Silvergate&SVB triggered banking crisis. Out of position on a weekly close under 1750.
Opening (IRA): GDX June 21st 24 Monied Covered Call... for a 22.83 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 call against a one lot here out in June where I have covered calls at the 29, 27, and now 24 strikes. 1.17 max on BPE of 22.83; 5.12% ROC at max; 2.56% at 50% max.
Going monied CC here in lieu of an equivalently delta'd short put to take advantage of call side IV skew (39.6% on the call side; 29.18% on the put side at the 24 strike).
This is probably about as much BP I want to devote to a miners position, which I view as an indirect rate cut play with the notion being that the dollar weakens somewhat, gold strengthens, and miners indirectly follow with bets being that there's a rate cut in May. It may naturally end up being later; the market hasn't exactly been "spot on" with either the timing of depth of cuts of late ... .
Alternatively, GDXJ/GDX are at the top of my screener for 30-day IV, so I'm just going where the juice is at.
Consolidation Continues for Precious Metal Mining StocksGold miners have shown relative weakness to the metals since topping in 2020, and that looks likely to continue in the near term. However, when this consolidation completes, the mining stocks should once again shine and starts catching up, potentially in the next couple of months.
For this reason, the time has come to keep this group on your watch list as a bottom below the October 2023 level of 25.65 on GDX could prove to be a durable bottom that will serve as a base to move GDX back over the ~ 36 high, and could even see prices breaking over the 45.76 high from 2020. These would likely represent ~ 46% and 86% upside moves respectively, so well worth a long trade.
A bit more patience is needed until this group will be ready, but could coincide with a pullback in the market in the coming months.
The downside levels of interest are ~ 24.1-24.6, and 22.8 to look for evidence of a bottom formation.
Gold/XAUUSD ~ Blow-off Top Keeps On...Blowing? (2H)TVC:GOLD chart mapping/analysis.
Gold's massive (algo-triggered) blow-off top killed the bullish momentum - pending further selling pressure if DXY/bond yields decide to rally into end of the year..
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Selling pressure towards 50% Fib initial support zone.
Bearish EOY capitulation target = Golden Pocket support zone.
Expect any bullish reversal to be met with sellers, pending underlying relative strength in DXY/bond yields.
38.2% Fib / 200SMA confluence zone as potential target for short positioning, TBC.
