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GDX

GOLD, GDX, GDXJ, AUYTVC:GOLD Inverse head and shoulders breakout from mid 2017 through late 2019 broke out and reached a high of $1,750 without ever testing the neck line again. While it is not necessarily probably that it do so it is certainly possible we get there or close. Momentum suggests this, RSI supports, Price action is weakening, and moving averages point to a pull back. If you believe this scenario is possible I would suggest looking at the levels of $1510, $1400, and $1355 as key hard supports. May be good opportunity to short GDXJ , GDX , or stocks like AUY . THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY / SELL. THIS IS MERELY AN IDEA AS WE SHOULD ALWAYS CONSIDER ALL POSSIBILITIES. Stay profitable. Mitigate risk. @econrumations www.economicrumations.com
TVC:GOLDShort
by EconRuminations
THE WEEK AHEAD: AMD, TWTR, FB EARNINGS; SLV, GDX, GDXJ; EWWEARNINGS: There are a ton of earnings coming out next week, with the most options liquid plays to be had in AMD (44/71), TWTR (77/80), and FB (59/50). Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in AMD in the June cycle (54 days). Camped out around the 20 delta strikes, it paid 3.12 as of Friday close (5.6% as a function of share price) with break evens at 42.88/73.12. Go defined risk with a five-wide iron condor in the same cycle -- the 42/47/70/75, and you'll get paid 1.48, 29.6% return on capital at max, 14.8% at 50%. A TWTR June 19th 24/36 short strangle paid 1.83 (6.4% as a function of share price) as of the Friday close; the FB June 19th 165/220, 7.07 (3.7% as a function of share price). Consequently, if you're looking for "buck bang" as a function of share price, your best best is going with the TWTR play, with its higher 30-day. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK: SLV (83/51) GDXJ (72/79) GDX (64/63) EWW (61/60) XLU (60/40) EWZ (57/72) XLE (55/66) SMH (46/46) XOP (42/81) USO (33/192) USO is going to be undergoing a 1:8 reverse split after the close of markets on April 28th, so you may want to steer clear of entering an options play before then and/or close out any options plays you've got on here to avoid being stuck with nonstandards post-split. As if it wasn't apparent, the juice is in precious metals/miners (SLV, GDX/GDXJ) and oil-related exchange-traded funds (XOP, XLE, USO), with some secondary squeezings to be had out of Mexico (EWW), Brazil (EWZ), and semicons (SMH). With respect to EWW and EWZ, I considered each for a potential IRA trade, since both pay dividends, although they're only twice a year and somewhat "uneven." (EWW yield shows as 4.93%; EWZ as 5.44%). The EWW June 19th 22 was paying .78 as of Friday close (3.7% return on capital at max), the EWZ June 19th 18, .96 (5.6% return on capital at max), so may consider doing one or the other as a potential aquisitional play. BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK: TQQQ (60/111) IWM (56/45) EEM (46/39) QQQ (43/36) SPY (39/35) FUTURES WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK: /NG (98/95) /SI (83/500 /RTY (56/55 /NQ (43/36) /ZC (43/36) /ES (39/36) /CL (33/948) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 35.93, well in "high volatility" territory. However, the May and June contracts (36.95 and 35.70, respectively), finished in contango (it's been a while), with the rest of the term structure in backwardation.
NASDAQ:AMD
by NaughtyPines
4
Elliott Wave View: GDX Extends Higher to 7 Year HighElliott Wave view in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests the rally from March 16, 2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from March 16 low, wave (1) ended at 27.21 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 23. The ETF then extends higher in wave (3) towards 32.27 and wave (4) pullback ended at 29.37. The 45 minutes chart below shows the internal of wave (3) which unfolded as another impulse of lesser degree. Wave (4) correction ended as a triangle. Wave A ended at 29.37, wave B at 31.12, wave C at 29.45, wave D at 31.13, and wave E of (4) ended at 29.45. The instrument then extends higher again in wave (5) with potential to end at 32.61 – 33.87 (blue box). This move will also complete wave ((1)) and thus ends cycle from March 16, 2020 low. Afterwards, the instrument can see larger pullback within wave ((2)) to correct cycle from March 16, 2020 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning higher again. We don’t like selling the instrument and GDX can always extend higher as the structure is in 5 waves. Furthermore, the sequence from January 2016 low appears incomplete with 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci target towards 36 – 40.6.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, NFLX, IBM EARNINGS; /ZC, /CLEARNINGS: IBM (63/54) announces Monday after market close. SNAP (92/102) announces Tuesday after market close. NFLX (66/70) announces Tuesday after market close. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE SCREENED FOR RANK >50/IMPLIED >35%: XLU (77/47) GDXJ (77/84) GDX (67/65) SLV (66/45) TQQQ (63/111) USO (62/112) XLE (59/70) EWW (58/54) EWZ (53/69) XOP (59/91) BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE: IWM (72/54) QQQ (47/38) SPY (45/28) EFA (44/31) EEM (41/36) FUTURES ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE: /ES (44/40) /NQ (47/39) /YM (51/13) /RTY 72/53 /CL (62/130) /NG (94/71) /GC (67/27) /SI (66/43) /ZC (57/28) /ZS (33/17) /ZW (27/31) Notes: Pictured here is a /ZC August 21st 310/330 long call vertical, currently trading at 11.25 with a break even at 321.25 versus 321 spot. Ideally, you'd want to put this on with at least make one/risk one metrics, which would occur if the spread priced out at 10.00 even or below. /ZC is tantalizingly close to those August 2016 lows at 310 '06 ... . Another future worth mentioning here: /CL. As I write this post, the May contract is currently trading at multi-year lows at 15.09, with the June contract trading at 23.66. May drops off this week with the question being how low the June contract will go. I continue to look to sell puts on weakness in the active contract at or below $20. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 38.15 with the /VX term structure in backwardation.
CBOT:ZC1!
by NaughtyPines