Gold Testing $1,800 While the stock market isn’t seeing the strong bounce that the Federal Reserve was trying to manifest via trillions of freshly printed dollars thrown at the bond and credit markets, gold is loving the massive increase in the money supply. Price is currently testing highs not seen since October 2012 near $1,800 which is where the current resistance level rests. I’ve been expecting a re-test of the all-time high of $1,923 by the end of the year, but at this pace we may see it within the next month or two.
After finding recent support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level which indicated uptrend continuation, price has now pushed above the 78.6% Fib level which is the most bullish of the Fib levels for price to be trading above. As long as price remains above the 78.6% level the trend can be expected to continue upward. Any pullback that holds above the 61.8% Fib level can be viewed as a bullish pullback and a buy opportunity.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line at the 75 level which indicates strong momentum behind price. Above 50 is bullish, above 60 indicates strong bull momentum. The purple signal line is also above 50 and rising which indicates that the intermediate momentum trend is bullish along with the short-term RSI momentum trend.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line, with both lines above the 0 level. This indicates that overall momentum behind price is bullish. As long as the green PPO line is above the purple signal line the short-term momentum will remain bullish.
The overall view on gold remains bullish with the expectation of a new all-time high above $2,000 being made this year.
GDX
GOLD mixed price action between GLD and Gold minersWeird price action for GLD last thursday, as gold futures were up 2% and GLD was only up 2.6%. While senior gold miners index were up 10%, such as NUGT or NEM exploded for 13%. Possible bearish triple top or bullish Inverse Head and shoulders? April 7 COT report was mixed as well, Non-Commmercials were Long, while Commercials were short. FOMC is not for 3 weeks, maybe pull back to FIB .236 ($153.69) Happy Trading!
GOLD (XAUUSD) preparing for MAJOR SELLOFF before true breakout!!Cycles analysis indicates one more major deflationary move to occur. A selloff approaching for XAUUSD down to support levels near 1380, as well as a retest lower for gold miners. To be followed by a longer term major buy setup for gold. Let's remain objective and not get too excited just yet!!
Gold Quarterly Closes Above 61.8% Fib Retracement Gold saw a strong quarter with an opening price of $1,521 in January and a closing price today of $1,637 for a +7.6% gain in the first three months of 2020. This comes after price broke above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in the second quarter of 2019 which was a level that acted as resistance during the 6-year bear market after price peaked at an all-time high of $1,923 in the summer of 2011. 2019 saw price break above the critical 50% retracement level which put gold back in a bullish trend, and this past quarter saw the trend confirmed with a push above the 61.8% golden retracement level as well.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) is indicating bullish momentum behind price with the green RSI line rising above its purple signal line, as well as both lines being above the centerline at the 50 level. An RSI reading above 50 indicates a healthy RSI reading and bullish momentum.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) is indicating bullish momentum as well with the green PPO line above its purple signal line, and both lines rising above the centerline at the 0 level. Neither the PPO line or signal line crossed below the centerline during the 6-year bear market which indicated that no bear trend in momentum ever took hold, and that a bullish pullback instead was taking place.
Current short-term and long-term views on gold remain bullish, especially with the amount of money being printed by central banks across the globe as they continue to fight the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus. The more they print, the more they’ll devalue their respective currencies, the better gold will perform. It’s still my opinion that gold remains on track to test its all-time high sometime this year with the potential to create a new all-time high.
Gold Miners Likely Topped and should get Obliterated furtherGDXJ failed to close above a key resistance level of $30.70 on Friday and it is highly likely that for the month of April, the miners (and Gold and Silver) have topped. At this point if you follow my ideas, Gold will sell for liquidity in the near-term for the second wave of the downfall of equities.
Investors should remain totally on the side-lines for the miners for much of the month of April.
Come towards the end of April and into early May we can start to look for key bottom opportunities. However, in the near-term, the miners will be decimated.
Note: When we start to get quarterly re-balancing near the end of March (i.e. next week), we can expect more sharp sell-offs not only in the commodity of Gold and Silver, but the mining stocks themselves (and equities).
- zSplit
Silver and the GDX during times of high volatility and G/S RatioTo be taken with a pinch of salt. The theory is relatively simple. When the VIX and Gold Silver ratios get so far out of the normal range, they tend to reverse but slowly over time. This usually leads to a bull run in the GDX and Silver prices if played out similiar to 2008. I would anticipate the Gold and Silver miners and Silver to be a buy in the coming months, if they can stop dropping from here.
Gold mining ETFs are not worth anythingWeekly target of $23, long term target ETF delisted.
Gold mining companies derive their value from the gold they produce. Their value will never increase in a greater percentage vs. actual gold because paper traded gold does not have the same built in overhead costs that companies have.
Owning gold mining stocks, ETFs, baskets, etc. have no relation to the reason for owning physical gold and I don't see how mining companies would be immune to the global sell-off.