Gold in AUD (daily chart)- Ascending broadening wedge. Gold in AUD (daily chart)- Ascending broadening wedge (yellow lines).
According to Bulkowski's chart pattern research- 81% probability of a bullish eventual breakout.
thepatternsite.com
GDX
Current global markets situation and everything you need to knowTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.
1) Yields on 10 and 30-year Treasury bonds stayed way above their lows as the stock market fell to new lows. This is a big positive.
2)Oil held way above its Sunday lows. This is a big positive.
3) The Fed is providing unprecedented liquidity of as much as $1.5 trillion. The stock market first rallied 6% on the news and then gave it all back. This indicates that the Fed is not going to be able to save this market. However, Fed's move will stop several potential dislocations in the financial markets and that is a positive.
4) This afternoon near the lows, smart money was lightly and selectively buying.
5) Big part of the selling was due to margin calls. This is a positive because margin calls eventually exhaust themselves.
Gold
Central bank selling in gold continues. Here are the key points.
- Central bank selling in gold, perhaps from Russia, appears to have continued.
- There are rumors that Italy is selling gold to pay for coronavirus expenses.
- When the stock market was halted, gold market was still trading. Over extended investors desperate to raise money sold gold to pay for margin calls in the stock market.
- Now that the momentum in gold has reversed, the momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.
- As gold miner stocks have pulled back on selling in gold, there is a bloodbath in ETFs GDX and NUGT on margin calls.
Smart money continues to buy gold and gold miner stocks on dips.
Complacency
My proprietary indicators are showing that there is still too much complacency among investors. Many investors continue to believe that the market always goes up after brief dips. Such investors are not selling.
"Buy the dip crowd is still alive and well."
Until these two groups of investors start selling, there is only a low probability of a lasting bottom unless there is a good news on coronavirus.
Gold About to Test Key Level#Gold is now retesting the rising trend line from the Aug '18 low. A break here would target the major horizontal breakout area ~$1530-$1540. That will be the last gasp to preserve a bullish regime. Below that level could send gold down towards a 1370 retest. #GLD #GDX $GDXJ
Money for nothin' and your chicks for freeLooks as though the Gold to Silver Ratio has peaked just over 100 and the popular pairs trade of Long Gold and Short Silver has run its course..
Back Up We Go... See Chart for Details and Target Price. Should Bernie Sanders upset Biden tonight, it would justify a more explosive move to the upside.
AMEX:JNUG AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:NUGT AMEX:GDX TVC:SILVER CURRENCYCOM:SILVER FX_IDC:XAGUSD AMEX:SLV NASDAQ:PAAS NYSE:AG
THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, ORCL EARNINGS; GDX/GDXJ, USO/XOP/XLE, EWZEARNINGS:
ADBE (89/65) and ORCL (77/60) both announce earnings on Thursday after market close and have the metrics I look for in earnings-related volatility contraction plays (>70% rank; >50% 30-day implied).
Pictured here: a short strangle paying 11.65 at the mid price camped out around the 16 delta. Its defined risk counterpart: the 265/275/395/405 ten-wide iron condor pays 2.46. Off hours markets are showing wide, so look to price setups out during the regular session.
The delta neutral ORCL April 17th 40/55 short strangle pays 1.45.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF THE STOCK PRICE:
GDX (99/51), April
USO (97/66), April
GDXJ (96/58), April
XLE (97/75), April
EWZ (92/52), April
XOP (92/51), April
TLT (91/41), May
EWW (91/48), April
XLU (90/43), June
SMH (84/56), April
FXI (65/33), June
BROAD MARKET WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF THE STOCK PRICE:
EFA (87/37), June
QQQ (83/43), April
IWM (82/46), May
SPY (78/41), May
EEM (70/37), June
FUTURES:
/CL (97/65)
/GC (84/25)
/SI (70/30)
/NG (65/48)
/ZS (30/19)
/ZC (21/22)
/ZW (13/27)
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 41.94, so it has been a rough ride for shorters who were in plays before this volatility expansion (points to self). The basic watch word is "patience"; volatility will abate at some point in time ... .
Gold, stay away for 3 months
No mater how bad the news around you, look at the gold, it's NOT going for new high!
stay away from it until it reach a 0.618 retracement area, about 1510
however, I expect it runs 3 months and end during Apr 2020. price level will be adjusted with the time frame.
GDX - support zone3/1/20. GDX 4 hour charts
I issued a warning on 2/23/20 of Risk v Reward. At the Friday low, GDX was down a bit more than 20% and NUGT was down a bit more than 50%. I FEEL for all those people who jumped in at the last leg and getting burned but that's how it usually out. Identifying Risk vs Reward and Resistance zone vs Support zone is important.
Elliott Wave View : GDX Looking to Extend HigherShort term Elliott wave view in GDX ETF suggests the rally from January 14, 2020 low in wave (3) has ended at 31.98 high. The cycle unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from January 14 low, wave ((i)) ended at 28.67 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 27.92. The ETF resumed higher in wave ((iii)) which ended at 30.10. After that, wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 29.50 and the final leg wave ((v)) of C ended at 31.98.
Currently, the ETF is correcting that cycle in wave (4). The correction is unfolding as a zig-zag. Wave A of (4) has ended at 30.41 and subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Wave ((i)) of A ended at 31.10 and wave ((ii)) ended at 31.74. The ETF then continued lower in wave ((iii)), which ended at 30.66. Then, the bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 31.14. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 30.41. From there, the ETF then bounced in wave B, which ended at 31.16. Potential area to end wave C of (4)) is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from February 24 high which comes at 28.64 – 29.60 area. From this area, GDX can then extend higher or at least bounce in 3 waves.
Two target price ranges in $NUGT based on $GDX resistance levelsOverhead resistance for GDX is to be found at $35.50 and $39
Assuming that GDX reaches these levels over the next 2 to 4 weeks $NUGT could reach $53.50 and $64.80 respectively.
GDX will open above $31 to $31.79 resistance which puts $NUGT at $42.0 to $42.70
Daily RSI will indicate a hold long.
THE WEEK AHEAD: SQ EARNINGS; SMH, XOP, GDX, GDXJEARNINGS:
SQ (77/59) announces Wednesday after market close and has the volatility metrics I'm looking for out an earnings-related volatility contraction play -- implied in the 70th percentile or greater over the past 52-weeks and 30-day at or greater than 50%.
Pictured here is an SQ April 17th 72.5/100 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta paying 3.55 on a buying power effect of 8.37 (42.4%) and delta/theta metrics of .66/7.78. For those high on defined, consider the 65/70/95/100, paying 1.58 (46.2% credit received as a function of buying power effect).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
SMH (73/30), May
XLE (63/23), July
USO (51/37), April
XBI (48/30), June
XOP (45/37), May
FXI (40/23), August
GDX (40/29), May
GDXJ (38/33), May
EWZ (26/27), June
I didn't get an opportunity to do a ton last week beyond take off a few setups in profit, so this is probably an opportunity to build up theta pile in stuff that I don't have plays in currently and to add to stuff via delta under hedge that has experienced an up tick in volatility over the past several days.
BROAD-MARKET ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
QQQ (59/23), September
SPY (43/17), November
IWM (42/19), September
EEM (37/19), September
In spite of the expansion of volatility over the last several days, broad market isn't paying fabulously in shorter duration, so if you're going to play, look to start out small, add small over time, and take profit somewhat aggressively.
FUTURES:
/GC (70/15)
/CL (51/36)
/NG (47/39)
/ZS (43/19)
/ES (42/17)
/SI (33/89)
/ZW (24/24)
/ZC (23/13)
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 17.08 with the March, April, and May /VX futures contracts trading at 17.05, 17.33, and 17.09 respectively. It's tough to divine what /VX futures traders' thought processes are here, but it looks like they may be focused on the exogenous event of the year -- the expiry around the general elections, where there is a huge term structure "hump" from September (currently trading at 17.75) to October (20.55), with the remainder of the preceding structure being fairly flat in the interim. There is a mere .70 differential between the March contract price and the September one which I regard as unusually flat, which doesn't make for good term structure trades. Naturally, at some point, the term structure may adjust to a more "standard look," but in the mean time, look to add short to VIX derivatives (VXX, UVXY) on pops to VIX > 20% via short call vertical or long put vertical with a break even at or above where the underlying is currently trading and shooting for one-third the width in credit (if a credit spread; don't pay more than 2/3rds the width if a debit spread).
Gold Miners in a dual pattern breakout - Rally Alert!Just building up, the GDX Gold Miners, which were lagging Gold prices for a while, is now on the verge of a breakout... from a tilted Cup & Handle Pattern, as well as a Triangle.
MACD and OBV are bullishly supportive, and momentum is strong.
A breakout sets an upside target of 32.50.
Enjoy the ride!
Gold miners - laggards in a rallyGold is rallying very hard, and the GDX Gold miners ETF is lagging behind. It is only a matter of time before it catches up, and is already beginning that catch up journey. This morning, it is up 1.5% and launching off, after a higher low bounce off a support region (grey box). Technicals are supportive, as is correlation to Gold prices. The MACD crossed up after consolidation. By next week, it should be breaking out over the trendline, and upside is >15% to target.
#gold consolidates in $1630s miners lag min 10% $GDX $NUGT $DUSTIt is uncharacteristic for the miners to lag in this way, usually, it goes the other way around.
The explanation is simply that the S&P is near all-time highs and has signaled repeatedly to short the gold mining companies and ETFs.
GDX resistance in the $31 region is not likely to hold this time. Gold miners are seeing all-time record profits due to gold reaching new all-time highs in every currency but the US dollar ( XAUUSD ) and Swiss Franc ( XAUCHF .) Most mining costs are incurred in other currencies where gold has been hitting all-time highs repeatedly for many months.
Shorting of the miners are will be bad for business as these levels are pierced.
Gold Rally UnderwayIf you look at the previous gold rally from 2001 to 2011 you'll see a similar pattern of the 50DMA crossing below the 100DMA and then a few days/weeks later rising above it again and rallying to new highs. I believe this is what we're seeing right now. Gold is going to touch $1700 in the next rally, or get VERY close before correcting. Let's see how it plays out...
GDXJ long ideaTo me I am finally getting a buy signal on miners. GDXJ has been supported by the 50 sma and is getting a move higher. The upper trend line was crossed, BUT we didn't close above it yet. I do see a cross of the 8sma and 13ema which is a buy signal. I had a buy signal on AXU yesterday. Pretty close to lift off.
Royal Gold - another miner to buy at supportNASDAQ:RGLD is one of the leading stocks in gold mining industry. It started major rally earlier than majority of other miners last spring. And was one of the first stocks to caution that pullback is likely in AMEX:GDX in January 2020.
Right now it sits right near major support level, and in bullish scenario this is constructive level from which new leg higher should start.
Gold coiling for move higher#Gold still looks strong to me. Price remains in early stages of 5th wave higher. Rising channel from the Aug '18 low remains in tact. Key levels I'm watching are 1540 to downside, which would test rising support & 1590 to upside. Break should kickstart next leg higher $GLD $GDX
GOLD - Daily chart forming a symmetrical triangle. GOLD - Daily chart forming a symmetrical triangle. In itself is 50/50 neutral regarding breakout direction. However, in the context of a secular bull market, likely to be a upward breakout, as the prior wedges, flags, triangles prior..
Gold daily in AUD- Rising wedge.According to Bulkowski- 60% probability of downward breakout, 40% of upward breakout.
As for downward breakout for a falling wedge, one of the worst performers, with 72% probability prices will retest breakout point (throwback).
As for upward breakouts for falling wedges, far more likely to be fruitful with far better performance, according to Bulkowski.
GDX to 24Maybe lower, but the gap is the target. If it closes back over the trendline it's a long for sure!
good luck
GDX - Looking to buy at $23Hello, I won't make comments for this chart I will link GDXJ that I did, assumptions are the same/similar
