GDX
GDX: Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom In PlayGold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
Notice in the chart that the portfolio of gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM) being the biggest weight, is working on a bullish inverse head and shoulders bottom formation. I see a key neckline around the $30 mark while the low under $26 from early October represents the head. If we project that $4.50 height onto the neckline, then an upside measured move price objective to near $34.50 would be in play.
Something to watch heading into year-end is how the US Dollar Index performs. Surely a move toward 4% on the 10-year Treasury Note rate would be a macro tailwind for gold and the gold miners, but a drop under 100 might also help commodities writ large. What could cause such a combination of lower rates and a weaker greenback? Softer economic data, including a weak payrolls report due out on Friday, December 8, might be such a catalyst. As it stands, four rate cuts are priced into next year which offers a solid backdrop for precious metals heading into 2024.
$GDX Bull Flag Poised to Break OutThe AMEX:GDX , a notable gold miners ETF, is currently displaying a Bull Flag formation, indicating a potential breakout on the horizon. My perspective remains that we are on the cusp of a significant breakout, one that could not only impact the gold market substantially but also trigger an even larger movement in mining stocks. Admittedly, I've held this view for some time, akin to the old saying that "a watched pot never boils," suggesting that sometimes anticipation can make the wait feel longer. By mentioning this, I might be tempting fate with the market, yet I believe that this breakout could occur unexpectedly, perhaps when it's least anticipated by most investors.
The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out of top consolidation finallyIF you had been following the series of The Gold Odyssey, you would know how well the probabilities are in the analyses.
To the point, Gold is ready to break its almost three year consolidation (huge) range.
1. You can see the powerful reversal off the mid-range support;
2. The candles show and project good momentum to follow through;
3. A trend line breakout already just happened with the week not closed yet; and
4. MACD and VolDiv are only starting to align for a good bullish breakout.
Incoming!!!!
$GDX Trend Line Break AMEX:GDX Trend Line Break, echnical breakout in the chart of AMEX:GDX , which is an ETF that tracks the performance of companies involved in the gold mining industry.
A "Down Trend Line Break" to the upside is typically seen as a bullish signal in technical analysis. It indicates that the security in question, in this case AMEX:GDX , has broken through a declining trend line, suggesting a potential reversal or change in the prevailing downtrend.
Bullish engulfing candleSSR Mining Inc. is a leading, free cash flow focused gold company with four producing operations located in the USA, Türkiye, Canada, and Argentina. They produce over 700,000 oz of gold a year.
Friday had a bullish engulfing candle
I see a target price of $14.30 , where there is resistance.
War news again this weekend will push oil and gold up again.
Good luck traders
Bright future ahead for gold and silver minersAs long as the price holds recent Oct lows, I will continue to expect it to move towards next important resistance area: 31-35-38.
Afterwards it would be ideal for price to consolidate and form a handle part of the cup with later break out above 35 pivot to confirm its intentions to move to next important resistance areas: 43-48-52
Short-term trading thesis: I will wait for price to consolidate around prior highs (preferably 29-30), providing a low risk entry point to consider any long trades.
Long-term trading thesis: Establishing a position within this potential basing periods along the right side of the cup with later breakout - all these looks reasonable for me for any positive expectations in coming months and 2024.
Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays.
The Day Ahead: TQQQ, GDXJ, USO, GDX, FXI Premium SellingIt's Friday ... the 13th. Here's what's shakin' in exchange-traded fund premium selling ... .
Top 5 Options Liquid ETF's Ranked by 30-Day IV:
TQQQ 22.9 IVR/60.4 IV
GDXJ 23.6/38.9
USO 46.4/38.8
GDX 26.0/33.6
FXI 14.8/31.4
Ideally, you want to have IVR at >50 and IV at >35% in ETF premium-selling land, but you can't have everything in this market ... .
Broad Market Shortest Duration <16 Delta Strike Paying 1% of the Strike Price In Credit:
IWM, the January 19th 151, paying 1.58 at the mid (14 delta)
QQQ, the January 19th 325, paying 3.44 at the mid (15 delta)
SPY, the February 16th 385, paying 3.93 at the mid (15 delta)
Me, Personally
Currently, I still have quite a bit of broad market on in fourth quarter expiries, with the majority being in the December monthly and the end-of-quarter December 29th. (I have one IWM straggler on in the November monthly). I've begun to deploy out a smidge into the 2024 first quarter), but may just sit on my hands this week depending on whether I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
Because of that, I may dabble small with TQQQ as an engagement trade (and to see what all the fuss is about). Pictured here is a 16 delta short put at the 30 strike in the December 15th monthly paying 1.01 at the mid which I'll do as a starter position and then work it from there as I wait on my other positions.
I also already have a GDXJ covered call on (See Post Below), but may add a short put to give me a little extra sumthin' sumthin' on that play.
GDXJ: 3 Line Strike with Bearish Divergence Into US Bond DumpingUS Bonds are currently dumping once more as GDXJ and Gold Bearishly Diverges at resistance after printing a 3-Line Strike. If this goes as I would expect, then we will see GDXJ come down to recover the entire range.
The Day Ahead: GDXJ, FXI, EWZ, GDX Premium SellingIt's Friday, and the last trading day of September ... .
Here's what's at the top of my IV screener in the exchange-traded fund space:
TQQQ, IVR/IV 23.3/64.2%
GDXJ, 22.7/36.4% (2.52% yield)
FXI, 12.5/33.4% (2.26% yield)
EWZ, 11.1/31.9% (10.9% yield)
GDX, 26.0/31.5% (2.23% yield)
You'll notice that everything is still pretty much in the lower one-quarter of the IV range over the past 52 weeks, but there are a few instruments have popped above 30% 30-day. If you're big on divvies, EWZ stands out, but one potential drawback for some may be that it only distributes biannually in June and December.
In the broad market exchange-traded fund space:
QQQ, IVR/IV 22.2/22.3% with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 321, paying 3.30 at the mid)
IWM, 21.6/20.8%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 162, paying 1.72)
SPY, 22.1/17.1%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the January 19th contract (the 385, paying 3.91).
You can naturally opt for shorter duration and be more aggressive with your delta, with the trade-off being that you may end up being assigned shares more frequently or have to manage in-the-money's via roll, which is not the funnest way to manage a tested short put, depending how deep in-the-money it is. (I'm talking mostly about what I do strategically in my retirement account, which is short put/acquire/cover or "wheel").
Me Personally ... .
I pretty much mechanically put on the shortest duration <16 delta strikes paying around 1% in broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) on a weekly basis, so am going to do that today, assuming I don't already have rungs camped out where I'd want to pitch my tent with a secondary consideration being whether the contract represents a better strike than what I've currently got on.
And, in spite of the short term pain I'm experiencing in my attempt to acquire TLT shares at these levels, I'll probably also add in a rung (or two), since I have a maximal buying power that I want to devote to that position, and I'm not there yet. The probable result at the moment is that I will be assigned various lots at various strikes and will have to cover (i.e., sell call against) at various durations, some of which may be quite long-dated with my current highest strike at the 94 (in the November 17th) and the lowest at the 84 (in the December 15th). Naturally, were I to have followed my initial plan as to when I wanted to start picking up shares, (See Post Below), I would be "less red" ... .
GDXJ (+ Gold) "Bear Trap" LongGiven USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard. FYI, gold futures (GC) have a yet-to-be-filled gap @ 1872.70, so we may drift lower in the immediate-term as the precious metal seeks that level. In the Jr. Miners space, we’re eyeing the 30.57-31.85 demand zone, which formed in November of '22. Protective stops should be placed below the lower bound of the buy zone. Targeting is a bit challenging, but GC futures should be able to rally to ~1910, if not higher. As everything is uncertain in trading, use your judgement. We always take mechanical profits en route to opposing zones, which are used for our target setting, and would highly recommend doing the same given the stress currently being reflected across markets.
Just a thought/idea – take it . This is a very aggressive trade given recent price action - be careful!
JHart @ LionHart Trading
GDX trade plan based on AMEX traders activityA significant straddle on GDX was concluded at the end of trading on September 06 on the AMEX exchange.
IMPORTANT! Based on our team's research of the options market, we expect buy activity at the support level or sell activity at the resistance.
We primarily consider levels to be activity zones, but not to be a super-fine level for establishing a limit order. Use them in combination with our own strategy, not in alone.
GOLD vs NASDAQ- Which is better ?Over a period of time what is better to trade and invest in a gold futures based ETF or instead
the TQQQ , a leveraged and popular ETF tracking the NAS100 and NASDAQ. To analyse, this
I put NUGT on the daily chart and superimposed the price action of TQQQ.
Starting one year ago, NUGT had the better price action in an upward facing megaphone
pattern reflecting high volatility and topped out 70% over the last August start in a double top.
After its retracement, it is now positioned perhaps for bullish continuation.
TQQQ on the otherhand since a low at the end of 2022 has been in a less volatile trend up
topping out at 50% last month but now also with a bit of a pullback and retracement.
I conclude that one is not better than the other and that a lot depends on a traders
appreciation of market tops. Swing trades in both managed well may give diversity to
the trades and allow for profitable outcomes. As a well established gold bug, however, I
believe that gold will shine moving forward especially if a BRICS currency is launched with
a real gold standard.
Long Gold, Long JNUG, Long ZcashThey're all the same sort of asset, but their eccentricities is what distinguishes their beta value.
A simple, secure digital currency that protects your privacy. For everyday purchases, sending money to a friend, and your favorite crypto applications, too.
#Silver UpdateSilver outperformed my outlook and its peer gold by any measure. And at this point, it should turn lower to shape an ending diagonal as there are no other alternatives left (at least I struggle to find one) other than recycling the bigger picture.
#Gold UpdateIn the chart above, I highlighted the preferred scenario now in Gold and Silver - flat. Since wave is a clear double zigzag and because Silver invalidated a symmetrical triangle, I would discount the probability of such a triangle in Gold as well. That leaves me with ABC flat, or the whole thing is something else.
However, even one scenario with ABC flat may have a great degree of uncertainty as wave C can take the shape of an ending diagonal as indicated below, or an impulse with wave w relabeled as wave (1) - less likely considering complex structures on minute timeframes. It can also be an expanded diagonal which is always a nightmare for ElliottWave traders.
Local Bottom In #Gold #XAUUSD It seems that gold has has just made a local bottom! I maintain a couple of scenarios at this point.
GDX heading down... It has been more than 6 months since I looked at GDX proper. Yes, I might have missed the last Gold/GDX rally, but I think that short run is about over...
Looking at the weekly chart for GDX, a decisive lowest close since March 2023 is representative of a end of a bull trend, if it is not already obvious enough. The near marubozu type down candle came after a quick dip and a lower high, to get a close near the lower low... which just prevails the downward momentum.
Few other notes...
1. a trendline support breakdown this coming week would accentuate the downside bias;
2. the MACD and VolDiv have crossed down and looks determined to crossunder the zero line;
3. any further breakdown bring it into the previous consolidation range. And a break in into the range suggest an extrusion on the other (lower) side of the range;
4. Noted that the USD appear to be gaining strength and the equity markets are about ripe for a retracement. Furthermore, the Gold analysis point to a further slide in Gold prices. Taken together, these 3 critical pillars for GDX are impacted, whcih gives little for the bullish case on GDX.
Down it goes... heads up!
#GOLD miner to 5XI see $3.85 to $5 dollars on the roadmap for this beaten #Miner
Much like in #Crypto the miners lag the underlying commodity
UNTIL a high range has been established
then the speculative fervour starts to filter through into these low cap gems.
GDX: Will you make it? 💪This is what we ask GDX regarding our primary scenario. The ETF has shown momentum in both directions: upward and downward. However, we expect the bulls to win this fight, pushing GDX above the resistance at $32.58 and into the turquoise zone between $33.93 and $35.57. There it should finish wave ii in turquoise and turn southward again, heading back below $32.58. However, our secondary scenario shouldn’t be disregarded! There is a 40% chance for the bears to triumph. In that case, we would have to wait for wave alt.(5) in yellow to expand first, which would then include a new low.
$GDX short term support & major supportAMEX:GDX short term support at the 50 day moving average next major support will be around $30
NEWMONT Mining Showing weaknessIs Newmont mining telling us that gold is about to correct more or is this isolated to the miners?
This leading gold miner could be signaling headwinds for miners.
We have seen Gold outperform miners which tells us that this move in gold is likely from the banking crisis...fear.
Imminent breakout setup in GDXSo many indicators and time frames are bullish GDX right now with bull divergences and montly MacD cross. Classic cup n handle formation with a backtest of cup in progress. Im no EW guru but it looks like we are at the beginning of wave 3. Good RR here with a stop at $31. Let me know what you think of analysis. Cheers.
