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GDX

Gold/XAUUSD ~ Blow-off Top Keeps On...Blowing? (2H)TVC:GOLD chart mapping/analysis. Gold's massive (algo-triggered) blow-off top killed the bullish momentum - pending further selling pressure if DXY/bond yields decide to rally into end of the year.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Selling pressure towards 50% Fib initial support zone. Bearish EOY capitulation target = Golden Pocket support zone. Expect any bullish reversal to be met with sellers, pending underlying relative strength in DXY/bond yields. 38.2% Fib / 200SMA confluence zone as potential target for short positioning, TBC.
TVC:GOLDShort
by BlueHatInvestor
1
$GOLD Bulls Need What?Gold achieved a historic milestone with a record monthly close in November 2023. For gold bulls, the next crucial step is the formation of a bullish consolidation, potentially leading to a bull flag pattern on the weekly chart. However, the path ahead is not without challenges, as indicated by the significant resistance levels depicted by the blue lines on the chart. These lines represent critical points that gold prices need to overcome to maintain their upward trajectory.
TVC:GOLD
by AlgoTradeAlert
GDX: Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom In PlayGold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Notice in the chart that the portfolio of gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM) being the biggest weight, is working on a bullish inverse head and shoulders bottom formation. I see a key neckline around the $30 mark while the low under $26 from early October represents the head. If we project that $4.50 height onto the neckline, then an upside measured move price objective to near $34.50 would be in play. Something to watch heading into year-end is how the US Dollar Index performs. Surely a move toward 4% on the 10-year Treasury Note rate would be a macro tailwind for gold and the gold miners, but a drop under 100 might also help commodities writ large. What could cause such a combination of lower rates and a weaker greenback? Softer economic data, including a weak payrolls report due out on Friday, December 8, might be such a catalyst. As it stands, four rate cuts are priced into next year which offers a solid backdrop for precious metals heading into 2024.
AMEX:GDXLong
by mikezaccardi
$GDX Bull Flag Poised to Break OutThe AMEX:GDX , a notable gold miners ETF, is currently displaying a Bull Flag formation, indicating a potential breakout on the horizon. My perspective remains that we are on the cusp of a significant breakout, one that could not only impact the gold market substantially but also trigger an even larger movement in mining stocks. Admittedly, I've held this view for some time, akin to the old saying that "a watched pot never boils," suggesting that sometimes anticipation can make the wait feel longer. By mentioning this, I might be tempting fate with the market, yet I believe that this breakout could occur unexpectedly, perhaps when it's least anticipated by most investors.
AMEX:GDXLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out of top consolidation finallyIF you had been following the series of The Gold Odyssey, you would know how well the probabilities are in the analyses. To the point, Gold is ready to break its almost three year consolidation (huge) range. 1. You can see the powerful reversal off the mid-range support; 2. The candles show and project good momentum to follow through; 3. A trend line breakout already just happened with the week not closed yet; and 4. MACD and VolDiv are only starting to align for a good bullish breakout. Incoming!!!!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Bright future ahead for gold and silver minersAs long as the price holds recent Oct lows, I will continue to expect it to move towards next important resistance area: 31-35-38. Afterwards it would be ideal for price to consolidate and form a handle part of the cup with later break out above 35 pivot to confirm its intentions to move to next important resistance areas: 43-48-52 Short-term trading thesis: I will wait for price to consolidate around prior highs (preferably 29-30), providing a low risk entry point to consider any long trades. Long-term trading thesis: Establishing a position within this potential basing periods along the right side of the cup with later breakout - all these looks reasonable for me for any positive expectations in coming months and 2024. Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays.
AMEX:GDXLong
by artemfedorov
The Day Ahead: TQQQ, GDXJ, USO, GDX, FXI Premium SellingIt's Friday ... the 13th. Here's what's shakin' in exchange-traded fund premium selling ... . Top 5 Options Liquid ETF's Ranked by 30-Day IV: TQQQ 22.9 IVR/60.4 IV GDXJ 23.6/38.9 USO 46.4/38.8 GDX 26.0/33.6 FXI 14.8/31.4 Ideally, you want to have IVR at >50 and IV at >35% in ETF premium-selling land, but you can't have everything in this market ... . Broad Market Shortest Duration <16 Delta Strike Paying 1% of the Strike Price In Credit: IWM, the January 19th 151, paying 1.58 at the mid (14 delta) QQQ, the January 19th 325, paying 3.44 at the mid (15 delta) SPY, the February 16th 385, paying 3.93 at the mid (15 delta) Me, Personally Currently, I still have quite a bit of broad market on in fourth quarter expiries, with the majority being in the December monthly and the end-of-quarter December 29th. (I have one IWM straggler on in the November monthly). I've begun to deploy out a smidge into the 2024 first quarter), but may just sit on my hands this week depending on whether I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on. Because of that, I may dabble small with TQQQ as an engagement trade (and to see what all the fuss is about). Pictured here is a 16 delta short put at the 30 strike in the December 15th monthly paying 1.01 at the mid which I'll do as a starter position and then work it from there as I wait on my other positions. I also already have a GDXJ covered call on (See Post Below), but may add a short put to give me a little extra sumthin' sumthin' on that play.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by NaughtyPines
The Day Ahead: GDXJ, FXI, EWZ, GDX Premium SellingIt's Friday, and the last trading day of September ... . Here's what's at the top of my IV screener in the exchange-traded fund space: TQQQ, IVR/IV 23.3/64.2% GDXJ, 22.7/36.4% (2.52% yield) FXI, 12.5/33.4% (2.26% yield) EWZ, 11.1/31.9% (10.9% yield) GDX, 26.0/31.5% (2.23% yield) You'll notice that everything is still pretty much in the lower one-quarter of the IV range over the past 52 weeks, but there are a few instruments have popped above 30% 30-day. If you're big on divvies, EWZ stands out, but one potential drawback for some may be that it only distributes biannually in June and December. In the broad market exchange-traded fund space: QQQ, IVR/IV 22.2/22.3% with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 321, paying 3.30 at the mid) IWM, 21.6/20.8%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 162, paying 1.72) SPY, 22.1/17.1%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the January 19th contract (the 385, paying 3.91). You can naturally opt for shorter duration and be more aggressive with your delta, with the trade-off being that you may end up being assigned shares more frequently or have to manage in-the-money's via roll, which is not the funnest way to manage a tested short put, depending how deep in-the-money it is. (I'm talking mostly about what I do strategically in my retirement account, which is short put/acquire/cover or "wheel"). Me Personally ... . I pretty much mechanically put on the shortest duration <16 delta strikes paying around 1% in broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) on a weekly basis, so am going to do that today, assuming I don't already have rungs camped out where I'd want to pitch my tent with a secondary consideration being whether the contract represents a better strike than what I've currently got on. And, in spite of the short term pain I'm experiencing in my attempt to acquire TLT shares at these levels, I'll probably also add in a rung (or two), since I have a maximal buying power that I want to devote to that position, and I'm not there yet. The probable result at the moment is that I will be assigned various lots at various strikes and will have to cover (i.e., sell call against) at various durations, some of which may be quite long-dated with my current highest strike at the 94 (in the November 17th) and the lowest at the 84 (in the December 15th). Naturally, were I to have followed my initial plan as to when I wanted to start picking up shares, (See Post Below), I would be "less red" ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
GDXJ (+ Gold) "Bear Trap" LongGiven USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard. FYI, gold futures (GC) have a yet-to-be-filled gap @ 1872.70, so we may drift lower in the immediate-term as the precious metal seeks that level. In the Jr. Miners space, we’re eyeing the 30.57-31.85 demand zone, which formed in November of '22. Protective stops should be placed below the lower bound of the buy zone. Targeting is a bit challenging, but GC futures should be able to rally to ~1910, if not higher. As everything is uncertain in trading, use your judgement. We always take mechanical profits en route to opposing zones, which are used for our target setting, and would highly recommend doing the same given the stress currently being reflected across markets. Just a thought/idea – take it . This is a very aggressive trade given recent price action - be careful! JHart @ LionHart Trading
AMEX:GDXJLong
by LionHart_Trading
GOLD vs NASDAQ- Which is better ?Over a period of time what is better to trade and invest in a gold futures based ETF or instead the TQQQ , a leveraged and popular ETF tracking the NAS100 and NASDAQ. To analyse, this I put NUGT on the daily chart and superimposed the price action of TQQQ. Starting one year ago, NUGT had the better price action in an upward facing megaphone pattern reflecting high volatility and topped out 70% over the last August start in a double top. After its retracement, it is now positioned perhaps for bullish continuation. TQQQ on the otherhand since a low at the end of 2022 has been in a less volatile trend up topping out at 50% last month but now also with a bit of a pullback and retracement. I conclude that one is not better than the other and that a lot depends on a traders appreciation of market tops. Swing trades in both managed well may give diversity to the trades and allow for profitable outcomes. As a well established gold bug, however, I believe that gold will shine moving forward especially if a BRICS currency is launched with a real gold standard.
AMEX:NUGT
by AwesomeAvani
#Gold UpdateIn the chart above, I highlighted the preferred scenario now in Gold and Silver - flat. Since wave is a clear double zigzag and because Silver invalidated a symmetrical triangle, I would discount the probability of such a triangle in Gold as well. That leaves me with ABC flat, or the whole thing is something else. However, even one scenario with ABC flat may have a great degree of uncertainty as wave C can take the shape of an ending diagonal as indicated below, or an impulse with wave w relabeled as wave (1) - less likely considering complex structures on minute timeframes. It can also be an expanded diagonal which is always a nightmare for ElliottWave traders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fomenka
1
GDX heading down... It has been more than 6 months since I looked at GDX proper. Yes, I might have missed the last Gold/GDX rally, but I think that short run is about over... Looking at the weekly chart for GDX, a decisive lowest close since March 2023 is representative of a end of a bull trend, if it is not already obvious enough. The near marubozu type down candle came after a quick dip and a lower high, to get a close near the lower low... which just prevails the downward momentum. Few other notes... 1. a trendline support breakdown this coming week would accentuate the downside bias; 2. the MACD and VolDiv have crossed down and looks determined to crossunder the zero line; 3. any further breakdown bring it into the previous consolidation range. And a break in into the range suggest an extrusion on the other (lower) side of the range; 4. Noted that the USD appear to be gaining strength and the equity markets are about ripe for a retracement. Furthermore, the Gold analysis point to a further slide in Gold prices. Taken together, these 3 critical pillars for GDX are impacted, whcih gives little for the bullish case on GDX. Down it goes... heads up!
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
GDX: Will you make it? 💪This is what we ask GDX regarding our primary scenario. The ETF has shown momentum in both directions: upward and downward. However, we expect the bulls to win this fight, pushing GDX above the resistance at $32.58 and into the turquoise zone between $33.93 and $35.57. There it should finish wave ii in turquoise and turn southward again, heading back below $32.58. However, our secondary scenario shouldn’t be disregarded! There is a 40% chance for the bears to triumph. In that case, we would have to wait for wave alt.(5) in yellow to expand first, which would then include a new low.
AMEX:GDX
by MarketIntel