GOLD Update for week ending 30 August 2019Weekly Price:Trend ratio is still very high. 3x the ATR. Price stall during the week possible while waiting for the prices to return to the averages.
Week update for week ending 30 August 2019
In Bull territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1520.34 - 1501.23
Price Projection:
HMA: Strong Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Bullish
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1480 - 1555.35
Price-Trend: 3.10x ATR (anticipate a stall while waiting for the MAs to catch up)
Daily for 30 August 2019
In Bear territory.
Price Projection:
HMA: Neutral Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: Broken to the low
Price-Trend: .22x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
GDX
GLD: SPDR Gold TrustM timeframe long-term BULL
W timeframe overbought mid-term BEAR
D timeframe overextended short-term BEAR
SUPPLY price reached suppy zone short-term BEAR
CORRECTION 50% fib retracement short-term BEAR
RSI overbought short-term BEAR
MACD divergence turning negative short-term BEAR
EXPECTED INFLATION after rate cuts long-term BULL
GDX short interest increased BEAR
GOLD/DXY ratio decreasing short-term BEAR
GLD shares otstanding decreasing BEAR
TIP lagging behind GC1! futures NEUTRAL
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GLD / SLV vs Dollar Index Long Term.A key consideration usually in any Asset is the correlations. Precious metals - XAUUSD (gold) / SILVER have a perfect inverse correlation to the dollar index. I will leave it on the reader to plot it. HINT: Plot XAUUSD and COMPARE with (1/DXY).
It's difficult (with all the Fake News) to decipher if Gold will have great demand going further or not. Commodities usually have a 30 year cycle. And in commodity cycles they usually go down for 20 years and then peak in 10 years to complete the 30 year cycle.
Looking at that fundamental we realize that XAUUSD / GOLD should start a secular bull run in 2011+20 yrs = 2031. Which coincidentally is also 30 years since the start of previous Bull run in 2001.
Looking at the other side of it, at DXY - I realized that there are 2 ways to look at it technically - either the J horns which show the start of a secular BEAR market for USD. This would indicate a secular BULL market for GOLD. A flip side to look at is drawing straight lines - I personally lean towards this one as we already are on a log chart. With these blue lines, we see a BULL trend in DXY. A bull trend here means a BEAR trend in GOLD.
If the above is to be true, then GOLD is merely going through Elliott Wave B and will crash down to 800 (bottom of previous wave 4) before picking up again. What do you think ?
GOLD Update for 29 August 2019Daily for 29 August 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1517.14
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Bullish
BSI: Neutral Bull
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1472.41 - 1555.33
Price-Trend: 1.1x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
GOLD Update for 27 August 2019Daily for 27 August 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1554.04
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Bullish
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1472.41 - 1555.33
Price-Trend: 2.01x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
GOLD & SILVER STOCKS ARE OVER BOUGHT! HYPE IS DRIVING THEM UPFolks, we hate to burst the bubble but...
Has anyone looked at the charts of the GOLD and SILVER stocks?
RSI, MACD and Stochastic indicators are so over bought, it is alarming and sounds the DEATH KNELL for both sectors. Anyone telling you differently has no idea what they're talking about.
To top this argument off, the big companies like GOLD and NEM are making nothing, no big profits, to run to the bank with.
Both companies recently purchased other gold producers and as of late, neither company can turn a nice profit. Look at the earnings reports...It's the truth!
In fact, GOLD barely hit estimates and revenue was down missing estimates. WHY..? ASK YOURSELF WHY? THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE!
Why are all these GOLD & SILVER companies in Canada? We've never done well with Canadian stocks because at the end of the day, most if not all turn out to be a huge scam.
Both GOLD and NEM have had plenty of time to sell gold at these record prices but yet both companies are unprofitable or making a few cents. Why is this?
We cashed out of all our GOLD & SILVER stocks today and we will not look back. Even if GOLD hits maybe 1600 to 1800, and SILVER hits $20 to $25, none of the stocks we follow are making money and from what we can see, they will continue to lose large amounts of money into the future.
Take your profits in the stocks and move into the Indexes, ProShares, SPDR's and ETF's to play it safe. Here's are several for you to research: GDXJ, JNUG, UGLD, GLD, GDXJ, UGL, GDX, DGP, BAR, GLDM, IAU, SLV
Every piece of GOLD & SILVER these companies find & produce is sold forward which means, they missed out on the record high prices as of today.
Also, where are the nice 2%, 3%, 4% and 5% dividends from all these companies if they're doing so well? Wall Street wants you to believe that because GOLD & SILVER are at record highs, GOLD & SILVER stocks should follow.
This argument is one big FRAUD AND A HUGE SCAM!
TAKE YOUR PROFITS AND DON'T LOOK BACK...WE DID TODAY...NEVER ARGUE WITH A PROFIT!!
BEST OF LUCK TO EVERYONE WITH YOUR TRADES!
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THE WEEK AHEAD: GDX, GDXJ, XOP, EEM, VIX/VIX DERIVATIVESEARNINGS
No options highly liquid underlying earnings announcements this coming week.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Ordered by implied volatility rank, with GDX, GDXJ, and XOP providing the best rank/implied volatility metrics for premium selling (>50% rank/>35% implied):
SLV (96/29)
GLD (95/18)
GDX (82/35)
GDXJ (80/40)
TLT (69/16)
FXI (54/26)
XOP (52/43)
The 16 delta GDXJ Oct 18th 36/49 short strangle is paying 1.16 at the mid price (.58 at 50 max), the GDX Oct 18th 30 short straddle, 3.19 (.80 at 25 max), and the XOP Oct 18th
21 short straddle, 2.67 (.67 at 25 max).
BROAD MARKET
EEM (51/23)
IWM (48/25)
SPY (43/20)
QQQ (35/25)
EFA (22/17)
Pictured here is an EEM 1 x 2 short strangle in the January cycle with the short put camped out at the 18 delta, the doubled up short calls at the 8's to accommodate skew. Paying 1.18 at the mid price (.59 at 50% max), it has break evens of 32.82/45.59 and delta/theta metrics of .97/1.56.
Alternatively, the Jan 17th 39 short straddle is paying 4.32 (1.08 at 25 max).
If EEM doesn't suit your fancy, the IWM Jan 17th 131/156 short strangle camped out around the 16 deltas is paying 2.16 at the mid price (1.08 at 50 max); the QQQ Dec 20th 16 delta 158/202 short strangle pays 4.05 (2.02 at 50 max); and the SPY March 20th 240/315, 7.39 (3.70 at 50 max).*
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
Continue to look to add small, bearish assumption plays in VIX/VIX derivatives on VIX prints of >20, with higher prints naturally being better. With the derivatives in particular, look to VIX levels as the guide for entries and not to the derivative itself (e.g., UVXY, VXX), since beta slippage and contango plays into these derivatives, making it more difficult to discern levels. The general plays remain: at-the-money VIX long put verticals or short call verticals paying at least one-third the width of the spread in credit (or, in the case of the debit spread, less than two-thirds the width of the spread in debit) and with UVXY and VXX, short call verticals with similar metrics.**
* -- Why the different expiries? I've been generally running broad market plays through a gauntlet of at-the-money delta neutral short straddle pricing prior to deciding which expiry begins to be "worthwhile," looking for the short straddle to pay at least 10% of the stock price. If the ATM short straddle isn't paying that, it isn't worth putting on a short strangle in shorter duration for me. The downside is that longer-dated setups are slower to come in and therefore tie up buying power for longer. The upside: they're wider setups relative to current price, so less subject to shorter term whipsaw.
** -- As previously pointed out, there is assignment risk with UVXY and VXX, and I'd rather be short shares via assignment on a short call than long shares via assignment on a short put. VIX is cash settled with no assignment risk, so whether there is a short put aspect or short call aspect is of little import for a VIX play.
GOLD Update for week ending 23 August 2019Week update for week ending 23 August 2019
In Bull territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1563.91 - 1508.15
Price Projection:
HMA: Very Strong Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Bullish
BSI: Bullish"
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1480 - 1530.22
Price-Trend: 3.72x ATR (anticipate a stall while waiting for the MAs to catch up)
Daily for 23 August 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection:
HMA: Strong Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Bullish
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1472.41 - 1535.03
Price-Trend: 1.87x ATR
GOLD Update week ending 16 August 2019Week Ending 16 August 2019
The week is bullish, the daily is bullish.
Projected range for upcoming week: 1494 - 1550
Weekly Data.
In Bull Territory.
Price Projection: Daily Only
HMA: Very Strong Bull
BSI: Bullish
Bull RSI: Bull
Bear RSI: Bull
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: None
Price-Trend: 3.69x ATR (over 3x ATR away from Trend, expect stall)
Daily Data for Wednesday 16 August 2019
In Bull Territory
Price Projection: 1563.47
HMA: Strong Bull
BSI: Bullish
Bull RSI: Bull
Bear RSI: Bull
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: 1472 - 1535
Price- Trend: 1.88x ATR
GOLD Update 13 August 2019Daily Data for Wednesday 13 August 2019
In Bull Territory
Price Projection: 1480.92 - Returning to low of consolidation
HMA: Strong Bull - In Consolidation
BSI: Bullish
Bull RSI: Bull
Bear RSI: Bull
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation:1535 - 1472 (re-established)
Price- Trend: 2.02x ATR
GOLD Update 12 August 2019Daily Data for Wednesday 12 August 2019
In Bull Territory
Price Projection: 1563 - 1567
HMA: Very Strong Bear
BSI: Bullish
Bull RSI: Bull
Bear RSI: Bull
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: Broken to the high
Price- Trend: 2.87x ATR
Enveloping bar on Monday, re-enforced prior projection.