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GDX

GDX Under-Performing Gold & HUI = Miners Anticipating Lower GoldGDX is still 12% below its 2016 highs, despite Gold having already surpassed its 2016 peak of 1375 by roughly 5%. On top of this, the GDX having more exposure to unhedged miners should result in GDX out-performing the HUI hedged senior miners in a bull market. This is not the case, as the GDX is actually under-performing the HUI. Highest probability assessment is a retest $25 GDX. Don't be like the many people who bought the "gold to the moon" hype in summer of 2016 and bought in at the highs and then subsequently got their a$$es handed to them.
AMEX:GDXShort
by Hayekian_Fibonacci
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, JNJ, NFLX EARNINGS; GDXJ, GLD, SLV, GDXEARNINGS IBM (54/26; Thursday), JNJ (56/23; Tuesday before market open), and NFLX (35/41; Wednesday after market close) announce earnings next week. Unfortunately, all of them have less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play (>70% rank/>50% implied), so I'm likely to pass on all of them. That being said: Pictured here is an IBM 130/135/150/155 iron condor in the August cycle paying 1.53, break evens at 133.47/151.53, and delta/theta metrics of -2.47/2.80. The rank/implied metrics aren't ideal here (<70%/<50%), which is probably why it's also paying less than my idea one-third the width of the wings in credit. I would pass on it if you can't get filled for 1.67 or greater ... . BROAD MARKET TLT (31/11) QQQ (8/17) IWM (7/15) SPY (6/12) EEM (3/16) EFA (5/10) Short-term, broad market premium selling is about as crappy as it can get here. Your options are to (a) wait for a pop in volatility; or (b) sell something farther out in time where the expiry implied is higher. I will probably opt for the latter if we don't get an uptick in volatility by July opex, since waiting can be unproductive, particularly if low volatility has infected the entire market and it becomes a "protracted thing." SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Premium selling opportunities are in gold and the miners for yet another week ... . Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (73/34), GLD (72/15), SLV (70/20), GDX (45/28), and TLT (31/11). Metrically, the most "ideal" play is in GDXJ (exchange-traded fund ideals: >50% rank/>35% background), although we're getting somewhat short in duration for another play in the August cycle. There isn't a September expiry available yet (there will probably be one after July expires), so it might be worth a look at GDXJ next week should volatility hang in there for a September play. IRA TRADES Not doing a ton here beyond managing my covered calls post-opex. Stuff on my shopping list (XLU, XLP, HYG) has all ground higher along with the rest of the market, so I just have to patient for another one of those December style "sell everything" dips or a major uptick in volatility in those instruments.* Although I have "not a penny more" short puts on in HYG, both XLP and XLU are out of range of that kind of play, it seems, unless I want to go far out in time and get paid very little ... . * -- XLU (10/14), XLP (29/11), HYG (13/6).
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
5
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, GDX, GLD, XLU, SLVEARNINGS FAST (41/31), PEP (19/18) and DAL (15/26) announce earnings next week, but the rank/implied metrics aren't there for me (>70 rank; >50 implied) for an earnings-related volatility contraction play. BROAD MARKET TLT (21/10) IWM (12/16) SPY (11/13) QQQ (10/17) EEM (7/17) EFA (5/10) Weak sauce. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Premium selling opportunities remain in gold and the miners, with some decent background implied in the oil and gas sector and semicons: Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (86/37), GLD (75/15), GDX (62/32), XLU (61/14), and SLV (56/19). USO (30/36), SMH (27/25), and XOP (21/31) follow thereafter ... . Pictured here, remarkably, is the exact same setup strike-wise that I posted last week in GDXJ in the August cycle -- the nearest the 20 delta 32/39 short strangle, paying 1.06 at the mid price with break evens at 30.94/40.06 and delta/theta metrics of 2.82/2.92. IRA TRADES XLU (61/14) is on my IRA shopping list with a current yield of 3.05%, but as a rate sensitive, it's ripped way higher on all this talk of cutting, cutting, cutting.* You'd think with that rank (61), it would be paying something, but the background's only at 14, so it's really no surprise that it isn't. I can either man up and sell something closer to at-the-money if I want in, and then manage the short put from there, wait for lower, sell a "Not a Penny More" at a price I'm comfortable with and then whittle away at cost basis from that point forward before taking on shares if I'm not happy with my cost basis (e.g., the Jan '20 18 delta 55),** or do something a little funkier like a 90/30 call diagonal with the long leg far out in time at a strike I'd be willing to exercise at.*** With the possibility of a no cut looming in the July cycle, I'm opting for waiting for lower. If that December "sell everything" dip is evidence of anything, it's that we'll probably have opportunities at some point going forward. * -- So have all the other rate sensitives -- IYR, XLP, TLT, HYG. ** -- I generally do that anyways as long as it's productive. *** -- I looked at a Jan '21 (no, that's not a typo) 50 long/Aug 16th 62 short call diagonal, but it's hard to price out in off hours with the setup being bid 7.78/ask 13.05. I'd be fine with the right to exercise at $50/share, but would need a Dick to sell me the setup for a price that results in a break even at or below where the underlying is currently trading to even consider that setup (i.e., not more 60.68 minus the 50 long strike or 10.68; the broker's saying the mid price for that setup is 10.42 with a resulting break even of 60.42 versus spot at 60.68). The additional benefit of that particular setup is that it's far more buying power efficient in a cash secured environment than short putting: the buying power effect of a 50 short put is the strike (50.00) minus any credit received with no right of exercise/assignment if the short put stays out of the money. It kind of begs the question of: "Why the hell don't I do that setup in the IRA more often as an acquisition strategy versus short putting?"
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
2
Daily GDX stock forecast analysis for stock investing strategies03-Jul AMEX:GDX Price trend forecast timing analysis based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength. Investing position: In Rising section of high profit & low risk S&D strength Trend: About to begin an upward trend as a adjustment trend gradually gives way to increasing limited falls and strong rises. Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend. read more: www.pretiming.com D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: GREEN Candlestick %D+1 Range forecast: 2.5% (HIGH) ~ 0.1% (LOW), 2.1% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of rising: 1.9% (HIGH) ~ -0.4% (LOW), 1.5% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of falling: 0.6% (HIGH) ~ -1.3% (LOW), -0.7% (CLOSE)
AMEX:GDX
by pretiming
5
A big year ahead for gold minersGood day folks, This is a comparison I made based on my GLD forecast for the next 12 months. I expect GLD to rise by 5 to 10% before year end. I calculated a few ratios and it appears that GDX moves exponentially with gold price (not a discovery I know). Basically, I wasn’t unable to use a distinct ratio, so I just compared their corresponding prices at the corresponding time. I concluded that if GLD was raising by approx. 5-10% to my price target of 128 to 134.5, GDX would rise from 26.5 to 28. This is an upside potential of approximately 29 to 37% on the current price! I am long. Thank you,
AMEX:GDXLong
by tipere445
Gold Already Moving to the All-Time-High - XAUWCU leading XAUUSDAfter discovering the World Currency Unit (WCU), essentially a basket of GDP-weighted currencies, and looking into how it was calculated, I realized it would likely serve as a better indicator of the Real Value of Gold & Silver. I've been following this exact chart for a while now; Very interesting how well it's lining up with fib levels, as you can see. I've noticed that almost every unexpected Bull/Bear move that has had no obvious cause (due to news, or technicals on XAUUSD) did have an obvious technical cause on XAUWCU. For example, when considering when Gold broke out of the long term downward trend from the 2011 top: XAUUSD : Jan. 25, 2019 XAUWCU : Dec. 17, 2018 Additionally, when considering when Gold broke out of the long term horizontal resistance dating back to 2013: XAUUSD : June 18, 2019 XAUWCU : as early as June 7, 2018 and backtesting while it waited for XAUUSD to break out.
FX_IDC:XAUWCULong
by liamcambra
3
GDX Analysis: Bullish Move Not Yet Over?Conclusion for today’s GDX analysis: Price closing above 26.17 implies resumption of the current uptrend in GDX. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is presented on the Daily timeframe with coverage of over 24 months of price action. The sell off and bearish market in the GDX that began in August of 2016 (not show here), continued until September 11, 2018 after which price failed to establish lower lows and lower highs. A bullish trendline in GDX that has lasted over 9 months is used to highlight the current trend in the ETF ever since the September 11, 2018 price low of 17.28. The current bullish price swing from the last pivot on the trendline (at ~20.17) reached a peak of 26.17 where price is currently consolidating. Horizontal lines of support are drawn on the chart where the ETF is expected to use a pivot to resume the bullish trend. They key levels therefore are 25.19, 24.56, 24.02, and 23.54. The trajectory anticipated for price action is also provided. Failure of support at 23.54 increases the chances of price returning to the bullish trendline prior to resumption of the uptrend.
AMEX:GDXLong
by Coin_Analyst
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, GLD, GDX, SLV, XLVEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (35/19) QQQ (23/20) IWM (21/18) SPY (21/15) EFA (15/12) SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS There's gold premium to be had (in them there hills ... ), particularly in the miners: Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (86/36), GLD(86/16), GDX (63/30), SLV (62/20), XLV (60/15). Pictured here is a delta neutral GDXJ short strangle in the August expiry, paying 1.28 (.64 at 50% max), break evens at 30.72/40.28, and delta/theta metrics of -2.5/2.9. For those of a defined risk bent, the August 16th 29/32/38/41 is paying .92, with break evens at 31.08/38.92, and delta/theta metrics of 1.08/1.02. The XLV August 16th 88/97 short strangle is paying 3.10 at the mid, but the markets are so wide, I'm not sure how that'll price out in the New York session. Moreover, the background implied is about that of the broad market (15 versus SPY 15), so I'm unsure of whether that's worth pulling the trigger on even if markets tighten up, even though implied's in the top half of its 52-week range. IRA TRADES This has been a tough market if you're looking to acquire either broad market (e.g., SPY), bonds (e.g., EMB, HYG, JNK, TLT), or other divvy generating underlyings (e.g., IYR, XLU), with your basic options being to (a) wait for lower; (b) sell "not a penny more" puts and get paid to wait; or (c) throw some caution to the wind, take some risk, and sell closer to at-the-money and manage those trades reactively (i.e., rolling out for credit, duration, and cost basis reduction). I've opted for a few "not a penny mores," although the return on those isn't all that compelling even though it beats the basically 0% you get for staying in cash. (See, e.g., the HYG, SPY "Not a Penny More" Trades, below). Given my particular proximity to retirement, I'm not all that keen on acquiring a bunch of stuff at near all-time-highs, so I'm pickier and probably way more risk adverse than most, so naturally the "Not a Penny Mores" will not be for everyone since you're tying up quite a substantial piece of cash secured buying power to generate fairly mundane returns.* But just because I've kind of thrown in the towel over acquiring stuff in the short to medium term doesn't mean I'm not managing what's already there. Inevitably, there's always a covered call that may need to be looked at and/or a hedge that might be sensible to erect to cut covered call net long delta that is inevitably there. (See, e.g., Overwriting Post, below). * -- Although it's apparent that you can collect sufficient premium to emulate or exceed the dividend returns on some of these underlyings without actually being in the stock itself. It kind of begs the question: "Why be in stock at all?"
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: GLD, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, USOEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (15/18) QQQ (19/19) IWM (19/18) SPY (19/15) EFA (10/12) One word ... . Well, maybe two: "Weak sauce," with ranks in the low quarter of their 52-week ranges and background implied at sub-20 across the board. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Top 5 By Rank: GLD (92/16), GDXJ (71/33), SLV (64/21), GDX (48/28), USO (47/43) TBT (52/24). Pictured here is a GLD Synthetic Reverse Jade Lizard, explained in the post, below. For those of a more nondirectional bent, the Aug 16th 127/140 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 70% probability of profit, although I'd recheck that setup at New York open for delta balance ... . GDXJ: August 16th 34 short straddle, 3.45 credit with >expected move break evens, delta/theta -11.03/3.02. GDX: August 16th 25 short straddle, 2.12 credit with >expected move break evens, but a little on the weak side in terms of credit collection. Delta/theta: -10.52/1.84. SLV/USO: August has yet to populate ... . In petro, my go-to is generally XOP (34/35), but the August expiry has yet to populate. Given the size of the underlying, I would probably continue to short straddle it here, assuming that it's still paying greater than 10% of the price of the underlying (i.e., >2.70 or so in credit for the short straddle nearest at-the-money).
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
FED WON'T cut rates - gold will go back downI'm anticipating the FED not cutting rates - this will cause other central banks to cut, which will force the dollar $DXY up and gold down. Chart looks like a double-top is forming with momentum sliding. Again, the only way gold goes up if we start war with Iran which last week looked like it was going to happen. Doesn't look like most of the globe is accepting the false-flag narrative being espoused by necons. I think the FED will cut in September or December even. At which I see a risk-off happening where people will run into stocks while gold will look lackluster against it.
AMEX:GLDShort
by JustinBilyj
2
Gold's direction stay LONG I'm thinking that pullback (blue arrow) was either a 1/2 cycle low or the end of the 1st DC. If its the 1/2 cycle low we should move higher towards $1390 as the top. If its the later we are on day 2 of the 2nd DC. The first DC was 34 days long which is right in line with the previous cycles. If I am right we should blow past the previous high at $1348 easily. If we get resistance and start going side ways then it may be the end of the 1st DC and we get that notorious heavy sell off. IMHO
FX:XAUUSDLong
by bhowe
2