XAU trouble for gold n silver is here The chart posted is now setup with a Negative Divergence see RSI I am buying puts in slv and gld this week
GDX
Gold is shining...is it going to breakout?Gold has rallied over 26% in a few months.
That is a massive deviation from the mean move in Gold, ofcourse much of this move is from banking fear.
With an upsloping wedge pattern forming, gold is likely going to make a new directional move.
Probabilities favor a break lower from this pattern but we shall see if Gold has other plans.
Rolling Waves (up)The bear leg could have probably ended.
Confirmation should come next week if it begins to move up sharply as I think.
In short term (two weeks) back at 38$
And probably end of May back to 48$.
Again GDXJ is on major support and this last week was a tipical shaking move before a large one.
The sector is moving up, and up, but remenber always that corrects in a hard way, so trading is the best attitude to make money.
I am long.
Rolling waves (The naked and famous).
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Salud para todos.
Wild S&P Nonsensery Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news:
Worse than expected CPI
Worse than expected PCE
Worse than expected Chicago PMI
Joblessness Rising
Missed Earnings
Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession
Collapsing Home and Auto Sales
Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like Microsoft, Boeing, and Google. BestBuy which is a horrible performer in economic downturn also slashed guidance and their stock price rallied 10%. This market has become an utter joke and its pure manipulation due to QE and Buy Backs. At this point, I'm bullish. The more the bad news, the higher the market goes.
Targets for S&P
- 4209
- 4293
- 4340
If we break the dotted yellow line, we could see this going up towards the 4300 mark to the MA of 4350ish. If WWIII gets announced, I suspect this will rally to well over 7,000 or higher. There is no danger of a double top either at 4200, that is now a myth. Recession is a myth. Americans are actually FLUSHED with cash and prices aren't high enough and things in the US couldn't be better.
Silver Breakout
It seems like the US Dollar Index has peaked (as of now) at 108 which pushed gold and silver down drastically. But we could be on the verge of a massive breakout in silver, back up above $25 an ounce as well as gold back above $1900.
You could start a position now incase silver continues upward or wait for DXY to fall below 100, but by then, you may miss a significant rally in silver.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Develops Elliott Wave Bullish SequenceGold Miners ETF (GDX) is close to breaking above the previous peak on 1.25.2023 high (33.34). A break above will open up a bullish sequence from 9.26.2022 low favoring further upside. Near term, cycle from 3.10.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.10.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 29.95 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 28.50.
Wave 3 is currently ongoing with internal subdivision as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 31.99 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 29.63. We can see wave ((i)) and ((ii)) in the 45 minutes chart below. The ETF then extends higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 31.80 and wave (ii) ended at 30.74. Wave (iii) ended at 32.80 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 31.95. Final leg wave (v) of ((iii)) is expected to end soon, then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) before turning higher again in wave ((v)) to complete wave 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 29.63 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
The Gold Odyssey - incoming, but wait...Ended the previous post on The Gold Odyssey (27 Dec 2022) with:
So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally.
Indeed the Down and then Uppish happened.
Now, with the monthly chart, we find gold again at the border of the Constipation Box and people are getting all excited about it. I had questions about my views so I started to relook, a tad earlier than I really should (remember May 2023?)
So, this chart was actually in response to someone who said that "gold always goes up" in conversation. I did not think it is "always" so I looked into the longer term and viola... The Constipation Boxes. Long term retracements can be 20-50% from peaks, and $300-400 multi-year ranges are observed.
Therefore, it is opined that Gold buying should be closer to the bottom of the ranges (eg. 1 Nov 2022) or at least when technical indicators are more aligned and on your bullish side.
IF you trace back, I bought Gold on 29 April 2019, two weeks after Trump launched the trade war of sorts. And released all Gold holdings on 9 August 2020. It has been a bit of a wait to get into a similarly bullish situation...
The previous month closed nicely bullish, but it appears to be a little too close to the upper range, even though the technical indicators look like a bullish turnabout. Furthermore, the past three months appear reminiscent of a Bearish Sandwich Stack candlestick formation .
So, let's just say that this is either
1. an imminent very bullish breakout; or
2. a bull trap to return back within the box for the next launch (possibly from about 18##)
Am more inclined with the latter personally, but that's just me and my overall observations.
Still maintain as per previous Gold Odyssey conclusion.
GDX: Gardening 🌱🌷🌹It’s springtime and GDX is working on wave B in green in its green garden between $30.01 and $32.58. Soon the ETF should harvest the respective high, which could be settled anytime. Afterward, the course should turn and leave the garden on the southern side to expand wave ii in orange. This downwards movement should end well before the support at $21.52, though, so that GDX can resume the ascent. However, there is a 38% chance that the ETF could slip below this mark and thus continue the descent instead.
Trade Idea: GDXTrue Bull markets in Gold are led by the miners, as spec money bids the sector and industry higher.
We know that Gold has outperformed and had magnificent strength to the upside however its counterparty GDX has lagged.
Seeing relative strength in Gold & relative weakness really emphasizes what were going through... a Liquidity crisis.
Gold is moving on fear and miners are lagging.
If gold softens up just a bit GDX will see a greater move to the downside.
$GDX: Next Target $38.41This is not financial advice.
I believe $GDX will make a run up to at least $38.41, and potentially higher.
The measured move is confirmed by long hand as well as Fib. extension:
1. High of $33.34 minus it's low of $21.52 (Point A) = $11.82. Point B's (retracement) low of $26.59 + $11.82 = $38.41.
2. Drawing the Fib. extension as show on the chart confirms the same price target.
Don't Fall for VIX Volatility Dead Cat Bounce“Happiness was never important.
The problem is that we don't know what we really want. What makes us happy is not to get what we want.
But to dream about it. Happiness is for opportunists.
So I think that the only life of deep satisfaction is a life of eternal struggle, especially struggle with oneself.
If you want to remain happy, just remain stupid.
Authentic masters are never happy; happiness is a category of slaves.”
Gold ready to drop with stocks 4hr chart shows gold is at top of buy cycle on 4hr chart and ready to head down. I also believe stocks are ready to head down so gold will follow stocks.
GDX Technical Support Outlined...Here we are looking at GDX on the Daily TF…
This analysis will be fairly brief, as the chart is crystal clear as of right now. Here you can see that GDX has retraced since its most recent uptrend which began in November of 2022. Currently, I am expect GDX to bounce off of the strong technical support as marked by the horizontal line (yellow).
This outlined support line hasn’t been re-tested since its break out from it (as previous resistance) which led to its run up as previously mentioned. Now, we can expect GDX to attempt to bounce from this line, and turn this previous resistance into newfound support.
It’s as simple as that…
Let me know what you think BTC is going to do next in the comments!
Cheers!!
#gdx #gdxj Anchored vwap + 200dma to support next leg of rally?Keep an eye on GDX and GDXJ, the two most popular gold mining ETF's. We have a confluence of the anchored vwap from the April 2022 highs meeting the 200dma. If history repeats we could start to see gold miners gather a bid here for the next move higher.
Gold price is holding up at the 38.2% fib + yearly pivot, so im watching closely for another rally at these levels of interest.
XAUAAUD - Bullish rising wedge.XAUAAUD - Bullish rising wedge.
Rising wedges can be bearish or bullish. Likely, long term trend consolidation, prior to next bullish breakout.
Golden opportunity?Most ‘experts’ are declaring the gold cycle done
I agree it’s at a possible reversal zone
But given my analysis that the dollar has not bottomed
And looking at the bigger picture for gold and miners
This could be an opportunity to buy into strength
This next 24 hours are key for gold and miners
GRI 2023
What an incredible rally in GOLD from Support - what's next?This incredible rally in Gold won't really end until prices reach levels above $2250. My target is closer to $2400 - but we'll see how things play out.
Overall, Gold moves in $350 price phases. From recent lows, the top of that $350 price phase is near $1985.
I would suspect a moderate pause/pullback after reaching the $1985 level. The low of that pause/pullback will prompt another $350 upward price phase.
If we assume the low of the pullback will be near $1900, then the upper target of the next upward price phase will be $2250+.
Eventually, as Gold shifts into a parabolic phase, those $350 price phases will increase..
A. $481
B. $525
C. $566
D. $700
As the speculative phase in precious metals continues, we'll see varying expansion/contraction phases until the peak is reached after 2027~28.
Hang tight, this is just getting started.
Follow my research.
GDX Dips Likely to Find Support in 3, 7, 11 Elliott Wave Swing1 hour chart of Gold Miners ETF (GDX) below shows that the pullback to 27.54 ended wave (2). The ETF has since extended higher in wave (3). Internal subdivision of wave (3) is in a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 29.32 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 28.12. Then the ETF rallied higher in a nest. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 29.99 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 28.41. Wave (iii) ended at 31.98 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 31.26. Final leg wave (v) ended at 32.75 which completed wave ((iii)).
Pullback in wave ((iv)) is ongoing as a zigzag where wave (a) ended at 31.94 and rally in wave (b) ended at 32.65. Wave (c) lower is expected to end soon which also complete wave ((iv)). Afterwards, the ETF should rally higher in wave ((v)) before ending wave 1 and cycle from 12.20.2022 low. GDX should then pullback in wave 2 to correct the cycle from 12.20.2022 low in larger degree before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 12.20.2022 low (27.54) remains intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.
Newmont Mining - The Long Play Going ForwardGold Miners have suffered, and this one has now capitulated in my opinion.
Yielding 5.6%+ and near a hefty demand level between 38-35, I'd expect a new uptrend in this one sooner rather than later.
(See pink circles in the longterm squeeze indicator chart, extremely eversold - second most since 1985)
Step risingFrom my analysis this are my targets for the comming month. Mid December more or less, is my stimated time to get them
GDXJ: fill the gar at that levels.
GDX: Same, could reach 35$-36$ (now at 25$)
And gold....back to somewhere close to 1.920$
Good times coming, and dangerous, as ususual.
Good Times Tomorrow, Hard Times (The Long Ryders)
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Gold Just Completed The B WaveI think a major down turn for GOLD is coming in the next couple of months. This will be the final wave down before the next BIG wave up towards $3,000 imo.
