GDX
GDX SEPT 21ST 20 LONG PUT/23 SHORT STRADDLE/26 LONG CALL DOUBLEThis a continuation of a trade that started as a put side net credit diagonal. With the underlying chopping along nicely in a fairly tight range, I figured I'd add a short call aspect to beef up the credit received on roll, increase theta, as well as to smooth out/neutralize the delta in the setup. For lack of a better label, it's basically a "Calendarized Iron Fly." In a normal iron fly, all contracts are in the same expiry, with the short straddle body of the setup at the money, and the "wings" camped out in the 10-16 delta range.
Here, however, I've opted to buy long-dated wings to budget the buying power devoted to the trade over time and avoid having to leg into and out of the longs, paying for them once and avoiding repetitive commissions/fees associated with legging in multiple times. The downside of doing things that way, however, is that you're paying for more extrinsic in long-dated options that, in all like likelihood, will become "throwaways." Naturally, you can go wider with the wings to lessen that effect ... .
In any event, the current scratch point of the entire setup is a 1.14/contract credit. I'll continue to roll the short straddle, only instead of waiting for 50% of max, I'll roll at 25% ... .
Long GLD XAUUSDGold bouncing off support here. has been consolidating for a few months. could break over 1400 on this run
Break or notGold has arrived its major resistance area. let's see if Gold could gain its four year high in the next few days.
GOLD likely to breakout before June! Target $1520 (GC1! GLD)Hey,
We've long been waiting for this inverse head & shoulders to come to fruition. As we can see, we broke out of the downtrend in 2016 but the 1360-1365 neckline has been tested multiple times. Finally it seems like we're ready to break out, how do we know?
1. The last low has not hit the ascending support of the latest move up. This means it's likely getting closer for a parabolic move.
2. GLD 130 & 131 May Calls are starting to get bought pretty heavily.
3. Consistent new short term highs and lows.
I went ahead and started building a GLD call position into the end of today. I distributed them at $128-130 from May-July.
Long GT.caExcellent set up here. Broke over the double top trend line, back tested the trend line and now seems to be curling back up. Lots of room to run. Trigger at 0.77 with no much over head resistance since november 2017.
Gold fighting the DollarExactly opposite of what's happening with the Dollar. Gold is clinging to it's downtrend channel upper slopes. Fighting the dollar on every move. This has been very exhaustive for both assets. Yet the technicals are in the dollars camp for now. Gold should give us one last buying opportunity.
XAUUSD 60 MIN short moving average failureXAUUSD 60 MIN short moving average failure POST US Easter Holiday squeeze
Bump-and-Run Reversal BottomsXAUUSD is finishing up the Bump phase and about to break out of the downtrend to start the Run phase.
Cheers!
Jnug to GoldJust a little update to how I am currently seeing gold price behavior and the pattern that lies ahead. It makes sense. This next push should bring gold up to the $1400 range and then be the end of the large B wave. You know what comes next right!? The big C
OPENING: GDX SEPT 21ST 19 LONG/MARCH 29TH 22 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL... for a .03/contract credit.
Another small, defined risk neutral to bullish assumption directional a la the XOP diagonal I just put on. (See Post Below).
As with the XOP trade, shooting for the long maintaining at least 50% of its value at expiry of the shortie at or near worthless or (alternatively) its value exceeding the value of the shortie by .32/contract at some point.
Dollar support area and weekly bull divergenceDollar support area, bull divergence, and possibly #6 of a broadening formation (megaphone). Will it be enough?
GDX Long IdeaWell here we go again. GDX is at the lower side of the trading box. A buy here with a stop directly below should produce a good risk reward trade. It won't be a straight line higher, but could reach the top of the box eventually.
Jnug to Gold "bottom was on target, now where"So we bottomed at $11.37. I was thinking somewhere between the $11.50 - $11.30 range. So that worked out well. But it appears to me that we only completed wave three down and still have to do wave 4 and 5. So wave 4 should top a little over the $14 dollar mark before dropping to a much lower low...(too early to call but maybe in the mid $8 range).
Long (GDX) Opportunity - Contrarian?Gold has been an under-performer in the uncertain global markets
However, structurally long $GDX offers significant upside
We have outlined trade which can be accessed on profile however a summary is provided
-2 Month Call skew 2.22 standard deviations above its 1 year mean
-2 Month implied volatility is near mid-range (64th percentile over the last year)
-GDX is a leveraged play against global central banks falling behind the inflation curve
-COT report shows that gold producers have been getting longer
Interested in all thoughts & analysis on our idea.
GDX on support21 is an important double support, which will likely fail; if this fails, next target is 16, then 12,5, then something very low.
NUGT Long idea!If you have cash, and have been sitting on the sidelines, here's a low risk opportunity. I know its hard to chart NUGT (3x) its better to track GDX. BUT, the trend line looks to be support. GDX is having a stop run below a double bottom. Im buying NUGT today watching intently for buyers to come into the market and wisk this 3x higher at the close.
GDX Long Head and Shoulders Long Term BottomPlaying long here, entering today, i have been following gold minders for years and I think we are close to breaking this inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern. Market is topping, cryptos are in bear market rally mode, gold will have its day in the spot light.
Buying the dips, going heavy long.
Lets make some money!
Cheers!
