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Jnug to Gold "Down"So it appears that gold is finally rolling over. Jnug is already responding. On this 4 hour (and you can check the smaller time frames) it appears that this 1st wave down is complete. You can count 5 small waves down. Don't be surprised if we get a large 61.8% to 78% Fib Pop tomorrow for wave 2. Then I would absolutely be in JDST. It is hard to pick a bottom for this move so I gave it a try with the FIB tool. If today is the end of wave one, and if we only do the 61.8% retracement up, then wave 3 should be a little longer than wave 1, and then there is wave 4 32% retracement to set up wave 5. That yellow oval is not out of the question. This market has been very tricky.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
Jnug to Gold "I think I fixed my cycles"A Little while back I was using cycles to help me with great accuracy, determine when to get in and out of both Jnug and JDST. Then it appeared to have gotton a little wishy washy. Well I think I got it back. If I am correct, we should continue to drop(not in a straight line) in Jnug until around the 18th or 19th. Coincidently the 19th is the day, congress votes on the budget for the year. I do not think they will pass it the first time through with all the border and DACA issues involved. I think gold will have completed its half cycle low about that time and Jnug should also reverse with gold. At this point gold has not really given a decent half cycle pullback yet. So if that starts this week, then Jnug will drop pretty well. I drew what I believe is a channel for Jnug. Lets see if that works. There is a good chance that Jnug drops to at least the 50 DMA and possibly a little lower during that last day or two of that half cycle. The 19th happens to be a Wednesday, which is the start of the next COT report. I cant tell you how hard gold and Jnug will run after that so we will wait and see. As you can also see...there is a pretty good consistency with the red half moon cycles. About 3/4 of the way through (pink vertical line) that half moon, Jnug will drop pretty hard as that also coincides with gold DCL (black Triangle). Its not perfect but timing the market is never perfect.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
3
Jnug to Gold "New cycle started couple weeks early"It appears that a new gold cycle started a couple weeks early this year. With the slight higher high from the consolidation, that is what appears to have happened. I am still expecting a zig zag pattern so we should start to consolidate next week back down to the multiple moving averages before pushing up to finish the E wave. RSI 10 is very overbought and there was decent selling near the end of the day. Jnug appears to want to drop but it needs gold to drop with it to help it out. There should be another rate hike in March so I see this rally ending around mid February before starting its bigger drop. My original idea for gold to drop to the trend line area fell short and is still posted for all to see. I am adjusting the cycles on the next chart. Gold needs to break out of this large wedge (for me to change my view) which should be approximately $1349 range for mid February. After that it would also need to make a higher high than last years high. So in the mean time, I will be waiting for a decent dip in gold and Jnug. Jnug chart
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
Jnug to Gold "Time for JDST next week"Gold and Jnug are following along nicely. I do not think we are finished quite yet moving up. Maybe by Monday or Tuesday and then I see a nice drop for another 1 1/2 - 3 weeks. I think the bottom will be approximately the 1220 range for Gold. SO for Jnug....I'll guess that will equte to the low $8 range. Now what should come next is a very nice rally for a couple months. In a subscription that I get from time to time...today they released their updated charts for gold. I was pleased to see that they are also looking for a bottom in gold soon. They are saying for gold to bottom around December 22nd. BUT....then they are saying that this rally will take gold to what appears to match the top for 2016 (1380's - 1400 range) before making a daily cycle correction. That top is supposed to happen around February 22nd. SO their time frame is almost the exact same as mine ...however, I am no thinking that gold will go anywhere near that high. I am looking for gold to top at the $1305 range and then start finally continue the bear market. So I will be buying JDST next week and then turning around and buying Jnug for about 2 1/2 - 3 months. Maybe.... And then I will sell to see whose opinion is correct... Mine or theirs. . Above is the 4 hour Jnug chart. Maybe a little bit more to the upside and then a hard drop. I am not sure if Jnug topped today or if this was just a messed up mini 4th wave running flat pattern. On the 2 hour chart it looks more like a 4th wave so I am leaning to one more move up by Tuesday. Gold Chart Gold Weekly Chart..... Maybe we are forming a Head and Shoulders patter.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
5