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GDX

GDX coiling againIt has been a while since it would be even worth to look into GDX, and I think it is about time... still early, but good to plan ahead and see if it is working out as projected. GDX (Gold miners) mounted a good recovery but stalled on a trend line and retracement is likely to see 27, else 25. The technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) are turning bullish, but not just ripe yet. Expecting a higher low about 25-27 (red ellipse is the optimistic target; also the 62% retracement level) in early to mid January 2023. Bouncing off the 23-week EMA would be a good indicator that the projection is in line. So... being optimistic for a comeback, but until the pullback is apparent, sitting on my hands first. Happy Boxing Day!
AMEX:GDX
by Auguraltrader
Portfolio Selected Visuals (PSV) vol IThis is a list of my personal portfolio selected ETFs with the simplest visuals, using MACD as the only technical indicator and the trend lines with breaks or breakdowns to give us a new series of PSV charts. ;-) Note that these are using Weekly charts, and a break out is qualified when there is a trendline break out accompanied by a MACD crossover (within a week or two). From left to right... GDX (Gold Miners ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but sees to have met resistance (red ellipse) ILF (LatAm ETF) is still within a trapped range. XLK (Technology ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse) soon after. GXC (China ETF) qualified a break out on 28 Nov, after a higher low. Appears to have another break out above a resistance line. XLE (Energy ETF) qualified a break out on 17 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have broke down of support/resistance (red ellipse). INDY (India ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). XME (Metal Mining ETF) qualified a break out on 24 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). EWS (Singapore ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, without a higher low, and further qualified a better stronger break out pattern on 28 Nov. From this set of visuals, GXC and EWS are the front runners. GDX appears a close third.
AMEX:GXCLong
by Auguraltrader
How high and how low can Gold go in this cycle?In my honest opinion Gold will head much much higher in the next decade, and the double top at 2070 is bound to break. In the short term it also looks fairly bullish as it has reclaimed several key support levels, along with the 200-400 DMAs and the diagonal trendline. Getting up to 1900-1920 over the next few days or weeks definitely seems possible. However in the medium term it isn't clear whether it is ready to resume higher. To me it looks more likely that Gold will get to 1600 and maybe even 1300 before getting to 3000. The quadruple bottom at 1670 looks vulnerable, as so does the triple bottom at 1450, while the 1300-1350 looks like a massive magnet. The market never retested that breakout and it could certainty revisit it before going higher. But how could gold go lower if inflation remains high? Well inflation has been high for a while now, and yet Gold is still sitting below its 2011 ATHs. Central bank balance sheets have exploded, and yet gold remains quiet. In my opinion this has to do with several things, that could range from manipulation up to a strong dollar. Central banks are cornered and not many governments are profitable enough to add gold to their balance sheets. Some will potentially be forced to sell in order to support their currencies. As energy and food go higher, bonds yields will go higher, and therefore more opportunities will arise outside of gold. Being long oil is probably a better inflation hedge than being long gold. At the same time higher inflation forces people to sell stuff in order to cover their extra costs, and that includes gold. People bought gold as insurance for a period of high inflation, and now they need to exercise that option. Finally, as bond yields go up, if the dollar also goes up, then this could seriously harm gold. If the USD appreciates too fast along with interest rates going higher, then gold could collapse along with most other assets in the case of a liquidity squeeze. In conclusion, I don't believe inflation is fully under control, I don't think we are done with QE and low rates by Central banks, however I do think that gold isn't ready for prime time yet. Gold is in a weird spot both fundamentally and technically, so I'd need to see a more bullish price action in order to be convinced that 3000 will come before 1300.
AMEX:GLD
by BitcoinMacro
Elliott Wave View: Gold Miners (GDX) Starts a New Bullish CycleShort term Elliott Wave View in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests it has started a new bullish cycle from 10.13.2022 low. The rally from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 25.4 and dips in wave 2 ended at 22.58. The ETF extends higher again in wave 3 towards 28.49 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. Internal of wave 3 unfolded as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 27.02 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 26.05. ETF extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 28.48, and dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 27.88 as a triangle. The last leg higher wave ((v)) ended at 28.83 which completed wave 3. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 26.76 with subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 27.57 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 28.09. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 26.76 which completed wave 4. GDX has rallied higher again in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 28.40 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 28. Expect the ETF to extend a few more highs before ending wave 5 of (1). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave (2) to correct cycle from 10.13.2022 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
GDX - Going Down Xtrenuously (pun intended)The gold miners ETF, GDX, just points to a very very rough time. With the interest rates escalating rapidly, the USD rising swiftly, the equity markets weakening, and gold prices crumbling... it is a perfect storm for GDX thrashing. The weekly chart had a tombstone doji the previous week as it failed the Hull EHMA, and the past week confirmed the trend reversal down. The weekly technical indicators are weak and bearish looking so not much to go on here. The daily chart shows a recent breakdown from a failed 55EMA test. and on Friday, ended with a bearish marubozu, closing near the weekly low. The technical indicators are significantly suggestive... the MACD had actually wasted a long bullish divergence and failed to mount a very decent rally. This failure would have a doubling opposing effect, and the daily MACD has actually crossed down into the bear territory. Taken together, projections set a downside target of 17, about the end of November 2022. A very tough time for GDX (unless you are short)
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
GDX: Rise and Shine! ☀️GDX seems to have woken up and is showing its high spirits by climbing upwards. We now consider wave ii in magenta to be finished, and thus expect the ETF to continue its way above the resistance at $28.83. Once there, GDX should gain even more upwards momentum to rise above the next mark at $40.13 as well. We should still keep in mind our alternative scenario, though, as there remains a 40% chance that GDX could lose its steam and drop below the support at $16.18. in that case, we anticipate further descent.
AMEX:GDX
by MarketIntel
1
The Gold Odyssey - Gold-ing Down over the next yearsI must attribute this post to my brother who texted me earlier this week asking for my opinion of where Gold is going. I did respond with a "Down" but I felt that I should also validate it properly. And lo and behold, I noticed a major pattern formation, that would break the previous trend/pattern. Gold appears to be on a VERY CRITICAL LAST DAY of the month. It needs to close well above 1685 to save it from the pattern break(down). Previously, since 2019, I started this series of The Gold Odyssey documenting Gold's bullish journey, andI think it is about time that Gold changes trend from Bullish to Bearish. The monthly Gold futures chart is shown here with two very similar pattern breaks. Well, in about 8 hours, we will know if there is a pattern break, and a new bearish pattern truly emerges... In 2011-2013, a major Gold top formed, and in this formation a couple of characteristics formed: 1. a monthly lower high was formed; 2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA; 3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and 4. MACD cross down into bearish territory In 2020, Gold made a historical high, and since then, Gold did these few things: 1. a monthly lower high was formed; ✅ 2. a breakdown below the 55 Hull EHMA; ✅ 3. a breakdown out of the triangle formation; and (candle NOT YET closed, on last few hours now) 4. MACD cross down into bearish territory ✅ The patterns are uncanny and a dead ringer for further downside, projected in a similar fashion to 1275 around later 2024. Conceptually, longer term patterns are more difficult to form (or break). Notwithstanding, the Gold monthly chart appears to be suggesting that the relatively trusty Cup and Handle pattern ( about 90% success ) is broken, and a bearish phase is developing with the monthly lower low and (potentially, at this time of writing) a break down out of the triangle. In summary, the long term technical set up here is suggesting that Gold will be bearish to 1275 over the next two years. Today, it is just the beginning. Food for thought here, especially for those who had loaded up in Gold over the last couple of years... will revisit once the month, and quarter, is done.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Auguraltrader
GDXU leveraged gold miner ETF LONG SETUPAMEX:GDXU As illustrated on the one-hour chart GDXU has reversed a downtrend as indicated by the EMA crossover and so on. Support and Resistance lines are shown. Price is well below the SMA200 and thus undervalued as compared with historical data. I see this as an upside 30 % long setup with reasonable risk. Once the trade progresses perhaps 10-12% in price rise, the stop loss can be moved up to break even. This can be approached with intermediate-term call options as well. Targets and stop loss are marked out.
AMEX:GDXULong
by AwesomeAvani
1