GDX gold miner ETF setting up LONGAMEX:GDX
Based on the 4H chart as well as the price action of spot gold
using an EMA ribbon cross-over as well as the volume profile,
I have set up a long trade with two upside targets of about
10 and 20 % upside respectively with a stop loss of about
4% which would be adjusted as soon as the price rises above
$ 27 to move the stop loss to the entry price making for
a breakeven free trade after that. Overall, spot gold
is sitting on support with a bullish RSI divergent pattern.
I also see GDX as a candidate for the intermediate term
call options out of the money about 15% above the current
price being between the two targets.
GDX
Newmont breaking out of the box and going lowerThe Bollinger Bands contracting inside the Keltner channel predicts an explosive move ahead that will last at least 8 days. Combine that with Newmont's Price Action creating a box which looks like it's breaking through. I would not be surprised if there was a retrace to the top of the box later today if action is aggressive, or Monday morning - then it's Sayonara Sucka.
I've already detailed all the reasons why in my gold/dxy threads why miners will experience more pain ahead. I'm selling OTM calls and buying ITM puts with the credit here. If it goes up, it's a squash - if it goes down, excellent revenue to average in at a lower price until miners turn around.
Elliott Wave View: Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Has Reached Inflection Short Term Elliott Wave View in GDX suggests rally to 26.40 ended wave (2). Wave (3) lower is in progress to complete a cycle from August 25th, 2022 high. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 25.23 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 25.44. ETF extended higher in wave ((c)) of W towards 26.22. Connector wave X completed as a zigzag correction at 25.30. GDX then resumed the rally in wave ((a)) ended at 25.98 and pullback in wave ((b)) finished at 25.53. Final leg higher wave ((c)) ended at 26.40 which ended wave Y of (2)
GDX turned lower in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 25.75 and bounce in wave 2 ended at 26.18. The ETF extended lower in wave 3 towards 22.96. Internal subdivision in wave 3 unfolded as an impulse. Wave ((i)) ended at 24.40 and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 25.14. The instrument extended lower in wave ((iii)) of 3 towards 23.80. Then a shallow rally completed wave ((iv)) at 24.24 and last leg lower ended at22.96 completing wave ((v)) of 3. Near term, we are developing a corrective wave 4 and afterwards, it should continue lower to end wave 5 of ((3)). As far as pivot at 26.40 high stays intact, expect any rally to fail for further downside.
GDX vs. BTC still holding uptrendI first published this chart in December last year with the view of owning gold & gold miners over Bitcoin. Whether you took a spread on Gold spot or gold miners(GDX) vs. BTCUSD, either one would have doubled your money this year. It has been a great trade indeed but interesting to note how strong this uptrend has been since the end of last year and there looks like no stopping this gravy train at the moment. In the absence of a technical break, I am still happy to own gold vs. bitcoin for now.
GDX suffering a low periodGDX, the gold miners ETF which once had a lot of potential is now in the doldrums. Having hit 41 in April 2022, it had almost halved within 4 months. Recently, an attempt to consolidate and rebound is seeing a lot of challenges. First, the Gold prices are in a bear trend, secondly, rising interest rates hurt the miners, third, the weak equities market also affect the gold miners.
The GDX weekly chart has in the past couple of weeks attempted a rebound, but the past week pretty much wiped all gains out. This move mellowed the technical indicators and it is less than ideal to be a tad bullish at all.
The daily chart obviously has technically bearish indicators crossing down with momentum.
Overall, very likely to take out the last low.
Nothing much except the obvious... bearish
The Gold Odyssey - a different story emergesPreviously, since Donald Trump started the US-China trade war, Gold has been on a clear trend forming a Cup & Handle pattern in the weekly chart. This was covered in earlier posts with decent accuracy, until recently. It appears that the Gold volatility is significantly heightened, to the extent that the the Handle may have been broken.
The weekly Gold chart shows many recent support failures, especially since April 2022. The past week appears to have failed breaking above the weekly 55EMA, and clocked a long bearish marubozu-like bearish candle that closed below the support range. Although the technical indicators are still looking somewhat less bearish, the weeks to come look bad for Gold really.
The daily chart shows similar patterns of breakdown, with a resistance failure, from a lower high that came from a Bearish Engulfing pattern. This followed through for the week where the 55EMA was again broken down. Technical indicators appear bearish too, especially with the MACD crossing under zero.
Gold is not going to do well for a while, so listen to what the charts are saying... very clear bearish message.
Look for 1700.
GDX: GDX-citing 🍿We hope you’ve all got your popcorn ready because it’s getting more and more exciting here! GDX has reacted to the upper edge of the magenta-colored zone between $19.52 and $27.49 and has slowed down its upwards movement. Although the ETF could directly continue the ascent, we still give it some more room and time to finish wave in magenta a bit deeper in the magenta-colored zone. As soon as wave in magenta is completed, though, GDX should take off, rise above the resistance at $28.83 and head for the next one at $40.13. However, there is a 30% chance that GDX could break through the bottom of the magenta-colored zone and drop below the support at $16.18, which would then activate further descent.
GDX recoveringQuick note that the GDX is finally recovering.
After about 8 weeks, and a consolidation range, the GDX appears to be recovering with a nice gap up on the weekly chart. Technical indicators are turning up, and the daily chart would be testing the 55EMA soon...
29 appears to be a very strong resistance to break.
GDX a long term GOLD MINEGDX has been pretty beaten up over the past year and we are at record Index lows for GDX. 10Y Bonds have fallen which is great for Gold. I'm expecting our FED to slow down tightening policy headed into the New Year. Even if we do not see Gold run GDX can still climb due to such a historical low valuation on GDX.
Gold & Silver Reaching A Launchpad with Currencies (like 2003)Many traders believe the current setup in Gold/Silver is similar to 2018 or 2015. But the reality is this is more similar to 1999~2003 with a strong US Dollar and weakening global currencies.
As long as Gold/Silver continue to strengthen while the US Dollar stays strong, foreign currencies will weaken and wreak havoc on foreign markets.
Eventually, the risk levels will increase in foreign markets which will send FEAR skyrocketing. That will move capital into Gold/Silver and break the channel/trends that are currently in place.
I believe we are very close (possibly 2 to 4+ months away) from that breaking point.
Watch global Emerging Markets and foreign governments for signs of collapse. These will be the early warning signs that Gold/Silver are "T-minus 10".
Once the US Dollar peaks/turns, we'll be at "T-minus 3".
At that point, everything will be ALL SYSTEMS GO for Gold & Silver.
Pay attention. This is a huge setup for precious metals.
Elliott Wave View: GDX in Support ZoneShort Term Elliott Wave view in GDX suggests cycle from 4/18/2022 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4/18/2022 high, wave ((1)) ended at 29.66, and rally in wave ((2)) ended at 33.52. Wave ((3)) lower subdivides into another 5 waves in lesser degree. Down from wave ((2)), wave (1) ended at 30.36 and rally in wave (2) ended at 32.80. Index then resumes lower in wave (3) towards 24.92, rally in wave (4) ended at 26.54, and final leg lower wave (5) ended at 24.38 which completed wave ((3)) in higher degree.
Wave ((4)) pullback is now in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 7/26/2022 low, wave 1 ended at 24.86 and dips in wave 2 ended at 24.50. Expect a few more highs to end wave 3, then it should pullback in wave 4, before the last push higher in wave 5 to complete wave (A). Afterwards, the Index should pullback in wave (B) before the rally resumes again. Near term, as far as pivot at 24.37 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
#GDX vs SPYGold miners testing an important level of horizontal support vs. the SPY (relative chart). If it fails to hold 0.062, we could get further underperformance from gold miners relative to SPY. On the contrary a hold of this support and we could see gold miners start to outperform the general market. For that to happen it would be important to see a reversal form off this support (not happened yet).
Possible top coming soon for $DXY?I can't say that I've called a top using trendlines atop of a bullish trend, but I've seen a few others do it. With the rise in the dollar bringing mass bearishness to rest of the investment complex, a pause could bring some welcome relief. Anyway, I thought the timing might be relevant as important lower levels approach in $CL, $UX, and some metals, as well being overdue for a meaningful bounce in the equities. I will use the $109.xx marker in DXY to signal a buying point for small positions in UUUU, UEX, NXE, USO, GDX, SILJ, SPY, IWM, AAPL, AMD, et al
GDX GOLD MINER may bottom@24 or 21 zone to retest channel.GDX seems to be doing a BIG UPCHANNEL started from the 2016 low & retested at the 2018 low. If this lower channel is to be retested, GDX may bottom at the 24 green zone. This is the most probable since this is also the 2016 VWAP & the FIB 0.618 retracement from 2016 low.
However, if you look at the VOLUME PROFILE, then GDX may fall more to the 21 zone to create a divergence, ending wave 1 of wave III.
BULLISH longterm: Gold & gold miners will be a good hedge during rising inflation or recession. Every portfolio should have this insurance policy & some other defensives like XLV health, XLP staples & XLU utilities. TLT bonds will also rise during recession while US10Y rates go down in a deflationary environment. GDX may be just in the early stages of the longest wave III rally & has a long way to go.
GDXJ Junior miners fell a lot more so I think percentage wise it will have to rise more just like today. Miners tend to be the leading indicator for GOLD. Gold may fall more to the 1670 to 1760 zone. Gold recovering 1800 will be very bullish while GDX reclaiming 30.37 wave 1 top & previous neckline pivot will also be bullish.
Not trading advice.
GDX: GDXcellent!GDX has proceeded to follow our primary scenario and has reached the support line at $28.83 by now. Next, it should drop below this mark and into the magenta zone between $27.49 and $19.52 to finish wave ii in magenta. Afterwards, the ETF should focus upwards, rise back above $28.83 and even further above the resistance at $40.13. However, there is a 30% chance that GDX could fail to turn within the magenta zone and could fall below the support line at $16.18 instead, thus continuing the descent.
GDX weakness and bullish failurePrevious analysis appeared bullish, but the price movements in the last two weeks since failed.
The weekly chart instead of following through with the bullish indications, reversed into a weekly gap down and further down for the next week. Weekly technicals are weak and suggest some bearishness.
A clear failure for the GDX ETF to break above the weekly 55EMA.
The daily chart shows how the weekly gap down developed, starting with a gap down that broke down of the gap range. This range was tested and failed for more downside in the following week. finding support at 29.
The technical indicators are bearish indicative, and downside target is currently 27.60.
Bearish breakdown in the works!
Parabolic Setup on the Mining JuniorsThis is a very asymmetric trade setup with nearly blue skies to 100 if it can catch some momentum in the coming sessions.
We also have a nice little fractal that shows us the path upward, should we break 49.
I would not front-run this one and would wait for 50+ daily close before a serious entry. With this level of confirmation in pocket, I'll be taking a rather aggressive stance.
Its a clear magnet-move to 100 - if for no other reason than it being one of the only decent plays available.
=PigMagnet
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