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GDXJ

THE WEEK AHEAD: CHWY, LULU, PVH EARNINGS; GDXJ, XOP; VIXEARNINGS: CHWY (71/85/17.34%)* announces Tuesday after the close. The June 19th 41.5/60 17-delta short strangle pictured here pays 2.55 with break evens wide of the expected move. The similarly delta'd July 17th 39/65 gives you more room to be wrong, but doesn't pay that much more for the wait -- 2.48 at the mid. LULU (36/57/10.01) and PVH (57/85/14.8) announce Thursday after market close, but have less than ideal volatility contraction play metrics. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE: EWW (37/38), <10% GDXJ (36/53), 13.74% GDX (33/43), 11.12% TQQQ (30/77), 17.7% XLE (30/39), <10% EWZ (29/48), 11.75% XOP (17/49), 12.4% GDXJ looks to be the most productive from the premium selling standpoint, although we're getting on the short side of duration for July (40 days until expiration). BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE: IWM (39/35), 8.66% EFA (28/25), 5.50% QQQ (22/25), 5.93% SPY (21/24), 5.43% IRA DIVIDEND EARNING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35%: EWZ (29/48) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: The /VX July contract finished the week at 27.21, with the VIX July 22nd 27/29 short call vertical paying .75 at the mid and the 27/30, nearly a buck at .95. Going out farther in time to take advantage of contangoized term structure here doesn't net you much additional juice, unfortunately. /VX August finished the week at 27.25 -- only .04 above August. September traded at 27.70, but the 27/29 pays only .65, probably due to the fact that the VIX of the VIX (i.e., VIX implied), slopes away, with nearer term implied being higher than those of longer duration. In "derivative land," the VXX July 29/30 is paying .38, the 29/31, .71, and the 29/32, .99. UVXY is probably also paying 1/3rd the width for similar setups, although options pricing is showing wide in the off hours ... . * -- The first metric is implied rank; the second, 30-day implied, and the third, the percentage of share price that the nearest monthly at-the-money short straddle is paying (i.e., the LULU June short straddle is paying 10.01% of share price, the PVH June short straddle, 14.8%).
NYSE:CHWY
by NaughtyPines
🚀Will Q2 earnings give the GDX the fuel to rocket?Gold mining stocks have a reputation on promising to deliver big but failing (see 2009-2011). I’ve been following the GDX since 2016 when I first started buying gold miners, and up until 2020, nothing really happened. The miners were in a bear market for 8 years and could not breach the $30 resistance, until April 2020. Does this signal the start of a new bull market, or will the gods have their way and bring us hodlers back to reality? To get this party started, we will need the GDX to clear $37 decisively, we did hit that area in May but sharply pulled back to the $32 area. Until we break the $37, we could expect to range between $37-$30. What will cause the GDX to move higher? The only thing we can expect to move the GDX higher is the price of gold. if gold can stay above $1700, and oil prices maintain their current price levels for a few more months, the fundamentals for gold miners will look even better. Oil is a major cost of production for miners, so cheap oil means more profits! It will be interesting to see their Q2 earnings, if they can impress with earnings when most other sectors are going to show slow growth, that could build buying momentum and attract new money. If gold prices break to the downside, that will most likely send GDX below $30 and result in a fake-out to what we are seeing. Looking at the RSI, we can see that momentum is building and even touched the oversold. To me this is a good indicator of a new bull market forming, but I'd like another confirmation in breaking the $37 price. I don’t see fresh money coming into this sector as we do with Tech stocks, retail investors want to hold stocks that are sexy and gold miners aren’t that. For that reason, we will need to rely on gold staying above $1,700, good earnings in Q2 and cheap oil. I have posted my macro views on gold, Bitcoin and the S&P500 this month, please take a look at my trading ideas and give me a follow. My goal is to provide macro views on marketing taking into consideration market news, not solely relying on TA.
AMEX:GDX
by BangkokCharts
THE WEEK AHEAD (PART II): HPQ, CRM, COST, GDXJ/GDX, USO/XOP, EWZEARNINGS: ... with June monthly at-the-money short straddle price as a function of stock price shown: HPQ (38/62), 14.3%: Announces Wednesday before market open. CRM (54/46), 8.7%: Announces Thursday before market open. COST (35/32), 6.5%: Announces Thursday before market open. Notes: Ordinarily, I screen potential earnings announcement volatility contraction plays by rank and for 30-day greater than 50%, but we've had a volatility pop in the last 52-weeks such that implied rank or percentile isn't necessarily as informative as it was. Where this happens, I look at whether the underlying is going to objectively pay or be worthwhile, using the at-the-money short straddle price relative to the stock price in a potential evaluation of that (i.e., the HPQ June at-the-money short straddle is paying 14.3% of the price of the stock). A good rule of thumb is that anything paying below 10% of the stock price is probably not worth it as a volatility contraction play in single name, so HPQ would probably be the only earnings play I'd consider putting on here, with the June 19th 17 short straddle paying 2.42 at the mid price and the skinny June 19th 15.5/19 paying 1.09, although the markets are wide here, so would look to recheck setup pricing running into Tuesday close if you're keen on putting that play on. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY AND ORDERED BY RANK WITH JULY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SHOWN: SLV (48/38), 10.8% EWW (44/42), 11.6% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% GDX (40/48), 14.5% XBI (38/41), 11.8% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% XLE (35/47), 13.2% SMH (31/28), 11.4% XOP (24/57), 17.1% USO (23/86), 21.8% ... AND ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SCREENED FOR >15%: TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% USO (23/86), 21.8% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% XOP (24/57), 17.1% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% GDX (40/48), 14.5% Notes: Here, TQQQ looks to provide the best bang for your buck, but I generally shy from leveraged products unless I can't resist doing something in the direction of the way the fund is set up. (See, TQQQ Post Below). Secondarily, USO/XOP have some juice, as do GDXJ/GDX, with the hammered EWZ rounding out the top five. Pictured here is a GDXJ July 17th (53 Days 'Til Expiry) 40/56 short strangle paying 2.75 at the mid price with delta/theta metrics of -1.52/5.55. BROAD MARKET, ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: IWM (47/40), 10.9% QQQ (29/29), 8.3% EFA (29/26), 6.8% SPY (28/29), 7.8% Notes: Here, the juice is in small caps, with the IWM July 17th, 16 delta strike 115/151 short strangle paying 3.39 at the mid price and delta/theta of -.1/8.27. IRA DIVIDEND PAYERS ORDERED BY RANK: EWA (47/39), 36.8% above 52 week lows; IYR (44/36), 31.5% above 52 week lows. XLU (38/25), 30.3% above 52 week lows. EWZ (36/55), 25.1% above 52 week lows. HYG (31/17), 20.5% above 52 week lows. EFA (29/26), 24.6% above 52 week lows. SPY (28/28), 35.4% above 52 week lows. EMB (22/18), 24.6% above 52 week lows. TLT (20/18), 29.2% above 52 week lows. Notes: I'm sticking the "above 52 week lows" out there just to show how much of everything has bounced, so it wouldn't have taken a genius to wade into the market, sell some out-of-the-money short puts in high implied and made out in some fashion. (See IYR, EFA, HYG Short Put Ladder Posts, Below). Conversely, that bounce means that things weren't as cheap as they were at the lows, so it may be time to sit back and wait for another sell-off or high implied event to wade back in with acquisitional setups, with the general elections in November being the next possible opportunity. In the mean time, I'll continue to work the call side in the covered calls I've got on now.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
Sentiment on Gold is WAY TOO bullish short term The sentiment on gold and gold stocks is way too bullish for the short term. I am not a bear and I am bullish on gold mid to long term but gold has to flex lower to get the power it needs to get past $1800. If the stock market ) rolls over, which I think it will, gold will not escape the selling pressure. Then it will bottom and be ready for the sky rocket move everyone expects. Also, keep an eye on DXY. Any surge in DXY will send gold lower. Just thoughts ... Current contrarian position with PUTS on GDX (15 May) as well as PUTS on SPY (June 19) P.S. GDX is up 2.1% on the day... good entry point??? Disclaimer: The above is only my opinion and in no way can it be interpreted as investment advice. Trade at your own risk and do you own due diligence.
AMEX:GDXShort
by adventurous51
4
GOLD, GDX, GDXJ, AUYTVC:GOLD Inverse head and shoulders breakout from mid 2017 through late 2019 broke out and reached a high of $1,750 without ever testing the neck line again. While it is not necessarily probably that it do so it is certainly possible we get there or close. Momentum suggests this, RSI supports, Price action is weakening, and moving averages point to a pull back. If you believe this scenario is possible I would suggest looking at the levels of $1510, $1400, and $1355 as key hard supports. May be good opportunity to short GDXJ , GDX , or stocks like AUY . THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY / SELL. THIS IS MERELY AN IDEA AS WE SHOULD ALWAYS CONSIDER ALL POSSIBILITIES. Stay profitable. Mitigate risk. @econrumations www.economicrumations.com
TVC:GOLDShort
by EconRuminations
Short GDXJShorting GDXJ from $37.17 with a target of $27.86 to $30.00. --------------- I believe that with markets potential to fall we will likely see another round of weakness, even if briefly, for the miners and gold in general. The potential for more profit taking or selling for margin have been greatly increased with the rapid rise in GDXJ over the past week and with markets at approximately 50% retracement levels from the highs respectively. If you feel unsure about shorting gold in this bull market you are smart, this is for risk oriented traders. If you are not going to short you may want to take profits for the time being in hopes of buying in lower. I would not look buy back in until either lower prices or up trend is certified by price action as intact (potentially even breaking past prior high). One can short directly, via puts, or even through JDST. Happy trading! ---------------- WEEKLY AND DAILY RSI DIVERGENCE (BEARISH) WEEKLY CANDLE'S NOT LOOKING GREAT DAILY CANDLE HAS GAPPED BELOW THE 200 EMA CONFIRMING A BEARISH BIAS
AMEX:GDXJShort
by EconRuminations
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: AMD, TWTR, FB EARNINGS; SLV, GDX, GDXJ; EWWEARNINGS: There are a ton of earnings coming out next week, with the most options liquid plays to be had in AMD (44/71), TWTR (77/80), and FB (59/50). Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in AMD in the June cycle (54 days). Camped out around the 20 delta strikes, it paid 3.12 as of Friday close (5.6% as a function of share price) with break evens at 42.88/73.12. Go defined risk with a five-wide iron condor in the same cycle -- the 42/47/70/75, and you'll get paid 1.48, 29.6% return on capital at max, 14.8% at 50%. A TWTR June 19th 24/36 short strangle paid 1.83 (6.4% as a function of share price) as of the Friday close; the FB June 19th 165/220, 7.07 (3.7% as a function of share price). Consequently, if you're looking for "buck bang" as a function of share price, your best best is going with the TWTR play, with its higher 30-day. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK: SLV (83/51) GDXJ (72/79) GDX (64/63) EWW (61/60) XLU (60/40) EWZ (57/72) XLE (55/66) SMH (46/46) XOP (42/81) USO (33/192) USO is going to be undergoing a 1:8 reverse split after the close of markets on April 28th, so you may want to steer clear of entering an options play before then and/or close out any options plays you've got on here to avoid being stuck with nonstandards post-split. As if it wasn't apparent, the juice is in precious metals/miners (SLV, GDX/GDXJ) and oil-related exchange-traded funds (XOP, XLE, USO), with some secondary squeezings to be had out of Mexico (EWW), Brazil (EWZ), and semicons (SMH). With respect to EWW and EWZ, I considered each for a potential IRA trade, since both pay dividends, although they're only twice a year and somewhat "uneven." (EWW yield shows as 4.93%; EWZ as 5.44%). The EWW June 19th 22 was paying .78 as of Friday close (3.7% return on capital at max), the EWZ June 19th 18, .96 (5.6% return on capital at max), so may consider doing one or the other as a potential aquisitional play. BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK: TQQQ (60/111) IWM (56/45) EEM (46/39) QQQ (43/36) SPY (39/35) FUTURES WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK: /NG (98/95) /SI (83/500 /RTY (56/55 /NQ (43/36) /ZC (43/36) /ES (39/36) /CL (33/948) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 35.93, well in "high volatility" territory. However, the May and June contracts (36.95 and 35.70, respectively), finished in contango (it's been a while), with the rest of the term structure in backwardation.
NASDAQ:AMD
by NaughtyPines
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, NFLX, IBM EARNINGS; /ZC, /CLEARNINGS: IBM (63/54) announces Monday after market close. SNAP (92/102) announces Tuesday after market close. NFLX (66/70) announces Tuesday after market close. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE SCREENED FOR RANK >50/IMPLIED >35%: XLU (77/47) GDXJ (77/84) GDX (67/65) SLV (66/45) TQQQ (63/111) USO (62/112) XLE (59/70) EWW (58/54) EWZ (53/69) XOP (59/91) BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE: IWM (72/54) QQQ (47/38) SPY (45/28) EFA (44/31) EEM (41/36) FUTURES ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE: /ES (44/40) /NQ (47/39) /YM (51/13) /RTY 72/53 /CL (62/130) /NG (94/71) /GC (67/27) /SI (66/43) /ZC (57/28) /ZS (33/17) /ZW (27/31) Notes: Pictured here is a /ZC August 21st 310/330 long call vertical, currently trading at 11.25 with a break even at 321.25 versus 321 spot. Ideally, you'd want to put this on with at least make one/risk one metrics, which would occur if the spread priced out at 10.00 even or below. /ZC is tantalizingly close to those August 2016 lows at 310 '06 ... . Another future worth mentioning here: /CL. As I write this post, the May contract is currently trading at multi-year lows at 15.09, with the June contract trading at 23.66. May drops off this week with the question being how low the June contract will go. I continue to look to sell puts on weakness in the active contract at or below $20. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 38.15 with the /VX term structure in backwardation.
CBOT:ZC1!
by NaughtyPines
Rising Wedge + H/S on hourly Timeframe..Clearly gold is presenting itself in a bearish channel. After Gold peaked and hit strong resistance yesterday. I had to change my wedge lines to complement the resistance at the top 1740-1750ish historical support area. not only is a head and shoulder pattern forming on the hourly, but there is also a rising wedge that could possibly complete and drive the gold price down to previous support levels. I expect a retest of the 1680 area and a possible bounce up and than further down to 1640 support ( which has proven to be strong ) Another idea to pay attention to is the fact that Both the S&P500 and the DJI are in a rising wedge pattern along with Gold. I anticipate another sell off in the over all market possibly next week.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TrapGuad
Gold Testing $1,800 While the stock market isn’t seeing the strong bounce that the Federal Reserve was trying to manifest via trillions of freshly printed dollars thrown at the bond and credit markets, gold is loving the massive increase in the money supply. Price is currently testing highs not seen since October 2012 near $1,800 which is where the current resistance level rests. I’ve been expecting a re-test of the all-time high of $1,923 by the end of the year, but at this pace we may see it within the next month or two. After finding recent support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level which indicated uptrend continuation, price has now pushed above the 78.6% Fib level which is the most bullish of the Fib levels for price to be trading above. As long as price remains above the 78.6% level the trend can be expected to continue upward. Any pullback that holds above the 61.8% Fib level can be viewed as a bullish pullback and a buy opportunity. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line at the 75 level which indicates strong momentum behind price. Above 50 is bullish, above 60 indicates strong bull momentum. The purple signal line is also above 50 and rising which indicates that the intermediate momentum trend is bullish along with the short-term RSI momentum trend. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line, with both lines above the 0 level. This indicates that overall momentum behind price is bullish. As long as the green PPO line is above the purple signal line the short-term momentum will remain bullish. The overall view on gold remains bullish with the expectation of a new all-time high above $2,000 being made this year.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by PrepForProfit