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GDXJ

Gold Price Clearly Defined and Price TargetsThis last chart, a Monthly price chart, illustrating the Pennant/Flag formation in Gold should be the clearest example we can provide that Gold will soon break out to the upside and rally extensively higher if our research and analysis are correct.  The momentum that has built up over the past 2+ years, as well as the global demand for Gold by central banks and by investors as a hedging instrument, could prompt Gold and Silver to rally at least 50~60% in this first upside breakout wave – resulting in $1900 gold prices.  Silver could rally to well above $18~19 in a similar move and the number our researchers believe may become the upside target in Silver is $21.
COMEX:GC1!
by TheTechnicalTraders
THE WEEK AHEAD: HAND SIT ON PREMIUM SELLINGAlthough VIX finished the week above the low volatility environment zone (<15) at 16.48, not much is enticing here from a premium selling standpoint at first glance. Earnings announcements are now down to a trickle, with the next quarter's announcements coming into range in the May cycle, militating in favor of putting on earnings-related volatility contraction plays closer to announcement since implied will in all likelihood expand running into them. ASHR (50/29), GDXJ (44/27), GDX (35/24), TLT (36/10), XLB (33/19) round out the top five exchange-traded funds sorted by rank; EWZ (12/38), XOP (26/32), OIH (27/32), ASHR (50/29), and USO (14/28) when sorted by 30-day implied, all below the >50/35 metrics I like to see out of these to put plays on, although I will continue to sell a bit of XOP premium here, since it's 30-day implied is nearly twice that of SPY's at the moment: the May 17th 30 short straddle's paying 2.99 (.75 at 25% max), nearly 10% of the Friday close share price of 30.06. On the majors end of the stick: SPY (28/16), QQQ (23/20), DIA (22/17), and IWM (19/21) -- all at the low end of their 52-week volatility ranges.
AMEX:ASHR
by NaughtyPines
Just admit that gold is at resistance and bearish!Just admit that gold is at resistance and bearish! The chart speaks for its self. The Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians. Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future. Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU. Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up. This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher. I also posted a Russell 2K ( IWM ) forecast here www.thetechnicaltraders.com
AMEX:GLDShort
by TheTechnicalTraders
THE WEEK AHEAD: TLRY, MU, CAG EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJThree earnings announcements interest me this coming week from a volatility contraction standpoint: TLRY (--/79),* announcing on Monday after market close; MU (45/51) -- Wednesday after market close, and CAG (86/45), Thursday, before market open. CAG: Pictured here is a CAG April 18th 22/24/25 Jade Lizard, which was 1.03 at the mid as of Friday close, giving it a downside break even of 20.97 with no upside risk, since the credit received exceeds the risk of the short call aspect of the setup. It's a bullish assumption, theta positive setup with a net delta of 21.14 and a theta of 1.86. Since it's gotten totally hammered since last earnings and does pay a dividend (.85 annualized; 3.69% yield), I could also see just going the most straightforward route, which would be short put, with the at-the-money 23 in the April monthly paying 1.11 with a downside break even of 21.89. TLRY: The April18th 55/60/85/90 iron condor's paying 1.63 at the mid, but I'd be picky and hold out for one-third the width of the wings in credit or pass on partaking, since the markets in the underlying are wider than I'd like. For the young at heart, the 60/85 one standard deviation move break even short strangle's paying 4.11, but would plan on a touch of price discovery if you want in. MU: The April 18th 40 short straddle is paying 4.53 at the mid and is about as delta neutral as you can get (.78) with a theta of 6.7 and break evens of 35.47/44.53. For those who need more room to be wrong and/or delta balance without going inverted: the 35/44 short strangle is paying 1.43 with one standard deviation break evens on both sides (33.57/45.43). On the exchange-traded fund front, premium selling is somewhat thin here with GDXJ (34/26), GDX (31/23), TBT (23/20), OIH (21/28), and IYR (19/12) rounding out the type five sorted by rank; XOP (18/29), OIH (21/28), EWZ (5/28), USO (10/27), and GDXJ (34/26), if sorted by 30-day implied. I'm still short straddling XOP (See Post Below), but don't have anything on in gold (GDX, GDXJ), so may putz with something small and nondirectional there. However, neither the GDX nor GDXJ at-the-money short straddles appear to be paying the 10% I generally like to see out of those -- the GDXJ May 17th 32 is paying 2.80 versus a 32.33 share price; the GDX May 17th 22, 1.67 versus a 22.30 share price. * -- TLRY doesn't yet have a 52-week rank metric, since it hasn't been around that long yet.
NYSE:CAG
by NaughtyPines
Commodities and Transportation paint PictureOur ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices. These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets. When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy. When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies. When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase. Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”. Let’s get into the research. First, the NASDAQ Transportation Index is painting a very clear picture that the upside price move starting near the end of 2016 drove prices well above historical normal ranges. Even today, we are well above historical ranges originating from the lows in 1998 and including the range expansion from the highs of 2007 to the lows of 2009. Given the premise that the Transportation Index would be highlighting increased economic activities across the planet and particularly those of more mature economies, one should expect that global trade/economic activity should be near all-time highs. What we would expect to find to help confirm our analysis is the price levels of general commodities would be increased to match the renewed optimism we believe is growing in the global markets. Obviously, if the global economies are doing well and trade/sales are increasing, then we would expect core commodity levels to increase as demand stays strong which we have seen this happen time and time again during economic cycles. GLD SLV GDX JNUG NUGT SIL GDXJ IYT XTN TPOR
AMEX:GLDShort
by TheTechnicalTraders
1
Gold should fall to this support level before bouncingThe US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends.  We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses. A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”.  We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place.  We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold.  We believe the US Dollar INDEX:DXY strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by TheTechnicalTraders