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GDXJ

Jnug to Gold "Breakout or Breakdown?"This is a important week and especially Fridays economic reports. I can see a case for both Bullish and Bearish gold. Being so close to that trend line again, it would seem safe to wait before making any bets. But I am still leaning bearish. One of the reasons is because of technical, but an even bigger reason is that the dollar has been dropping hard for the last several months and gold has essentially been trading sideways. With the dollar at very over sold levels right now and at strong support, I don't think it is going to drop through yet. As a matter of fact, there is a huge bullish divergence on the weekly chart for the dollar from its May 2016 low to today. see the dollar chart Nothing is guaranteed but that is significant. If the dollar bounces, it seems likely that gold will react quite a bit in a negative manner. Another factor is that golds volatility index is at its lowest since the 2011 gold top and much lower than the 2013 gold top. I am wondering if that means that a drop in gold like 2011 - 2012 or 2013 is on the table. And then there are the miners. These stocks have been trading with lower highs and not showing a lot of strength with the gold rallies. If you look at the Jnug chart, you can see that we had a little volume spike on July 26th. Looking back, when Jnug has had large green volume spikes, it has usually meant that we were at or near a top before a large drop. That does not mean that it will stay consistent, but is worth noting. Volume has been dropping off which means a big move is coming. And with the close of the DOW above 22,000 today, I am wondering if money might finally start flowing out of gold and into equities. Hard to tell at this point. But we are due for at least a half cycle drop in gold. And Jnug seems ready for the same thing. On the opposite side of the argument, gold is so close to the trend line, any significant bad news or bad economic data could be the trigger for the gold breakout. So stay alert because if you are short like me and this thing takes off, then we may have to take a loss. I hope not but we shall see. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
4
Jnug to gold "I dont think we are finished dropping yet"I was on vacation out of the country for the last week so I have not been able to update anything. But there really was not much to update. So to cut to the chase, it is my feeling that we are not finished dropping yet for gold. I am expecting gold to drop into oversold on the RSI 14 and also drop below the march low before having a legitimate bounce. So lets look at todays action. Gold burst up but miners barely moved. That should raise eyebrows and signal caution if you are looking to go long. If you are dead set on going long, what would it hurt to wait a little bit for confirmation. If you are wrong, then it will hurt a lot if my opinion is correct and Gold and Jnug drop. It appears to me that Jnug is working out its wave 4 and should provide a 5th wave soon. We have a short term bounce playing out from a small bullish divergence from last week. But there is a larger hidden bearish divergence that has formed and that should be respected. And as for gold, well, I am not going to repeat myself again, but I am waiting for it to drop to the longer term trend line which is in the mid 1170's at this point. There is a large gap that formed this morning by the way. There is also that gap above. I wouldnt be surprised to see jnug fill the upper gap before dropping but I am hoping to be spared the agony of waiting any longer. I am also expecting gold to drop thanks to the breakout in the broader market. By the way, I called that. GL on your trading
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
15
GDXJ at key crossroad - will 31.37 support hold?!GDXJ closed right above 31.37 support so guessing it will test it tomorrow but it'll have to break the long uptrend from its lowest point in Dec. 2015 to get there which makes this a key point for determining if long uptrend will be broken in line with shorter term downtrend. Either it breaks down & has a long way to fall or it bounces off either the long uptrend line around 31.5 or maybe the 31.37 support & moves up in resistance ranges. If it closes below both those levels tomorrow, Monday will either be start of real bloodbath or strong rebound per my reading of the above chart...either way, we're approaching the intersecting point of the long uptrend with the downtrend from high in Dec. 2016 so looks like big move coming either way! Anybody with experience PLEASE share thoughts on how to hedge a big individual miner/precious metal allocation (currently at loss) if this breaks down over the coming days!! Still bullish long but def. want to reduce the bleeding if this falling knife is about to pick up speed!! THANK YOU! Til then, might keep cutting losses wth some riskier miners if it breaks levels above!
AMEX:GDXJLong
by heidib
2
GOLD/GDX/GDXJ - GOLD SECTOR NEAR TERM GAMEPLANGold stocks have been super-weak since the big top in August of last year. One could argue that last year's bull run was just a bear market rally. I made several attempts to play this sector on the long side since January but even as gold made new highs around 1300, gold stocks failed to make new highs and just sat there - a big warning sign. We can expect the Dollar to make a cycle low soon and then gold will have a hard time rallying for the next months. This might be a good shorting opportunity for people who are into shorting. I'm not shorting but instead waiting for a good buying opportunity on the long side (as noted in my chart above. We might even get a stop run of the December lows. I am trying to be prepared when that happens!
AMEX:GDX
by signalnoise
22
Jnug to Gold "Crash next week"I know I have been reading a lot about the big move in gold. And everyone has been biased bullish except for a few. I am more beaish today than I was last week. The time for the big move is next week in my opinion. I hate having to wait like this but the markets are on their own schedule. So the reason that I am into the bear camp, aside from the fact that we got rejected a few weeks ago from the false breakout like I knew we would, is that the 50 DMA is looking like it will cross the 100 DMA next July 5th or 6th. That cross means something. And the big money will show everyone what that means. This dump will be fast and swift and Miners will get taken down with it. I am of the opinion that miners will make lowers lows than last May and even get lower than last December. I really think Jnug could get down to the $8.15 range before we get a bounce. The second reason that I am bearish for the big move is that we have not competed an Intermediate cycle low. And we are way past due. There is no more time left for this to have another daily cycle. SO this is where the cycle analysis helps and guides me. As you will soon see, when I am right about this, you will not rely on just Elliot Wave or on any other single thing. You have to include cycles. If you ignore cycles then you ignore nature. Cycles happen whether we like it or not. And nature seems to find a way to put us in our place.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
14
Jnug to Gold "FOMC meeting and Brexit talks" This is a tough spot for me to possibly predict any directional movement. While I do think that Jnug will drop at the beginning of the week and probably touch the $16.80 level with the help from gold dropping, the Fed decision is weighing on me. Just about everywhere I read it says that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday. If they do raise rates then I think it is safe to say that gold will finally and truly breakout and stay up this time around. This would take Jnug up with it somewhere along the blue arrow. However,.....we have been having weaker data than was expected, and on around June 20th, the Brexit talks begin. Since there is a lot of turmoil throughout Europe right now, I am wondering if these factors will have the Fed wait on a rate hike this week. They waited last year right before the Brexit vote so maybe they will wait again. Another thing is ....on a purely technical analysis perspective, gold still has not completed a true Intermediate cycle low (ICL). The RSI on the weekly has to get to the oversold level and the medium term trend lines are supposed to be broken before calling a ICL. All we have had are two good DCL's. I am leaning bearish for both gold and Jnug for the next couple of weeks as I am thinking that the Fed does not raise rates. I also think that the weaker inflation index's may also keep the Fed at bay. On my Jnug chart I am showing the possible wedge a,b,c,d,e forming. It appears that we are dropping into the "d" and that would mean a small "e" pop. Usually when "e" is up, then what comes next is a breakdown. The BBands are still constricted. So a big move is still imminent. But nothing is for certain at this point. A few days ago I said it was safe to be short Gold. And I stand by that call until Wednesday morning. But it is probably safe at that point to wait on the sidelines to see what the Fed decides before going long or short for a longer term trade. If there is no Fed rate hike then I think that gold will finally fall into its ICL and get down to the 1165 - 1170 range before bouncing. I think that would happen in late June. That drop would tank Jnug and probably follow my red arrows. GL on whatever you decide to do
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
23
Jnug to Gold "Breakout??!!" Well gold finally broke through the 5 year resistance downtrend line. But what matters is how we close the day and if there is follow through tomorrow. If this drops back under 1290 and we start tanking, then I would bet this continues to drop hard. This could be a false breakout designed to get everyone to go long. Do you doubt the big money does not know this? I am fairly certain that we are in the final 5th wave still. It has gone higher than I anticipated. Oh well. I am not going long because I believe this will fail. I am bummed that I got out of Jnug. If you remember, I was saying that I thought Jnug was going to test the red zone around $20 and then drop. I got out when I saw Jnug fail below a certain level. Looks like I took the fake out bait on that move . Oh well. I will wait. I am looking for Jnug to be at around $16 by Friday. If gold closes green and keeps running, I will wait for a pull back before going long. As I write this, there is a large bearish divergence on the RSI 5 and also as gold correlates with miners. The question is, will miners catch up over the next week or is this going to fall short again. I bet short. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
15
Jnug to Gold "BBands tightening again, Big move coming soon"Yes a big move is coming soon and I think that that big move is down. Last Fridays poor price action for Jnug is the writing on the wall. With such a strong break up for gold, Jnug should have behaved better than that if there was strength. So while I think gold will continue up towards the top of its wedge, I think Jnug may not perform that well. I wont guess on a price top for early next week but I will be monitoring it closely. Then I will sell my Jnug and buy JDST. I am hoping that Jnug can retest the red zone again and hit the $20 area but I am losing faith in the ability for it to fill that upper gap. The JDST gains should be very large over the next two weeks starting after Tuesday is my guess. I am fully expecting Jnug to drop all the way down to $9.40 - $8.15 range. I am looking for GDXJ to drop to first test the December lows of $27.47 range. If that breaks then I would look to $26.35 range. If for some reason we actually get that low, then there would be nothing that I can see stopping a drop until $21. To put things into perspective. Since Jnug tracks GDXJ. If GDXJ drops to the $27.47 range, that would be a 14.8% drop. On February 24th and 27th, GDXJ dropped 13.6% in two days which translated into Jnug dropping 36.66% in two days. That would bring Jnug down to $10.95. And I think we will go lower than that and get to the $9.35 to $8.14 range. If we get to $8.14, that would affectively be a retest of the 2015 lows for Jnug (reverse split included). After we get down there then I fully expect the Fed to raise rates and we get another rally. But it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller. This once might be very short lived, maybe a month or two at the most?! That's a little two far in the future but I have been predicting that gold has not started its bull market and that gold will drop hard into early next year. I will post my GDXJ chart and Gold chart next. GL
AMEX:JNUG
by SalN
21
Jnug to Gold 5/22/17I decided to start with the gold chart today. We have once again closed above the 50 week MA, which is the thick blue line. I am looking for price to move above 1264.75 to confirm that we are in a wave 5. If that is confirmed, probably overnight, then I am targeting that yellow box area for a top for gold. Then we should turn down with a vengeance. I am not one that believes that we just completed a ICL a couple of weeks ago. Price is supposed to break the trend line not bounce off of it. Plus we have a rate hike coming up in June and as is typical gold behavior, gold drops until the day of the rate hike and then rallies pretty hard. So if I am correct, and gold pushes up to that yellow box, this should help Jnug finally rally past that red resistance area. It will have a hard time moving much higher than the gap fill due to the BBands being already compressed and the 50 DMA up there as well. Lets see how tomorrow goes. Jnug chart will be posted next.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by SalN
6