GE HIT LOWS, NOW IS THE TIME TO GO LONGI really think that the bashing of GE is now over, the last time this stock was at these lows was in 2008 which was a blood bath, and 1984, as much as cash flow issues as they have had, the new CEO has a lot of work a head of himself. Here is the reality, and Investment in GE Is an investment in America, and say what you want about the tariffs, the trade war, the FEDS raising their rates, we are strong. GE will move back, only a short time.
GE
SPX Crucial support at 28.62If this doesn't hold, say bye bye to a positive EOY. In my opinion, with the exponential gains of the #FANGS, GE downfall, trade frustrations, etc etc, it is a great time to short this right here. Pick your poison. GE short has done well for me so far, but don't fall in love with one chart and not see greater potential. AMZN and NFLX primed for disaster, among others. Mid caps fall faster than large caps in a downturn, generally. Keep that in mind. Happy shorting.
FB AMZN NFLX GOOG
This indicator SAVED YOU HUGE on GEBuy Green
Sell Red
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it's mainly for swing trading, i use the 3 day / 15 day / monthly charts with it and it works perfectly,
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it works good for stocks and cryptocurrency.
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you will use heiken ashi chart style and turn on the EMA DOTS indicator.
once the indicator is on you will hide the heiken ashi so you only see the dots.
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when a green dot -0.78% -6.68% -7.44% -7.44% appears you buy, if a green dot -0.78% -6.68% -7.44% -7.44% appears after that green dot -0.78% -6.68% -7.44% -7.44% you hold your investment.
if a red dot appears you sell your position. easy as that.
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the standard dots setting will be set to 10 - use this for any chart above 3 days
change the dots setting to 6 for 3day charts and below
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shorter time frames will be choppy.
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larger time frames will be smooth.
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*Daytrading smaller timeframes is possible but not recommended.
GE looks fucked to meGE is pretty fucked. Broke the long term trend line this summer. Has been tanking ever since. So long GE, it's been nice knowing you.
I might buy some in the $5.76 to $6 range to take advantage of the "double bottom" false rally. Expect to sell the rally at $12-14.
SL is the you're fucked box. Stop loss @ $5.60 (assuming you buy at or under $6.
Then will continue trend down to bankruptcy.
OPENING: GE JAN 18TH 9 SHORT STRADDLESelling bullishly skewed premium in the beaten down GE with the possibility of an assignment of shares with a cost basis of 7.33/share (a 9.5% discount over current price). Filed for a 1.67/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $167/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect (On Margin): Undefined/$171/contract
Break Evens: 7.33/10.67
Delta: 23.23
Theta: 1.09
Notes: Fairly rare to get a credit approaching your buying power effect ... .
Bullish Divergence Transforms to Near End to Oversold ConditionsAT40 = 17.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 10th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period
AT200 = 29.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX = 23.4
Short-term Trading Call: bullish
Commentary
The small bullish divergence to start the week received follow-through in the form of a big rally day in the stock market. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), jumped from 11.9% to 17.3%. Suddenly, it looks possible for the stock market to bring an end this week to this extremely extended oversold period (AT40 above 20%). AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, came to life by hopping from 25.4% to 29.5%. AT200 even slightly broke through its steep downtrend.
{AT40 (T2108) surged from the lows to the oversold threshold.}
{AT200 (T2107) bounced enough to sneak a peak above its relentless October downtrend.}
So far, the S&P 500 (SPY) is down 4.5% for this 10-day old oversold period. The index is down 3.7% from the start of the first oversold period which is only separated from the current period by one trading day. If the oversold period had ended today, the S&P 500’s performance would have been in-line with historic 14-day long oversold periods and under-performed historic 10-day oversold periods. In both cases projections are for less weakness.
{The performance of the S&P 500 for a given oversold duration (T2108 below 20%).}
In other words, there is a decent case to be made that the breakout from this oversold period will come with another big rally day for the S&P 500. It will need to be a big move to break out of the current steep downward trading channel formed by the lower Bollinger Bands (BBs).
{The S&P 500 (SPY) rallied for a 1.6% gain that perfectly matched the previous day's open and close lower.}
The NASDAQ gained the same percentage as the S&P 500 but its range of motion was not nearly enough to nullify the previous day’s fade and selling. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 1.7% but also failed to nullify the previous day’s pressure.
{The NASDAQ rallied for a 1.6% gain but still sits well within the downward trading channel formed by the lower Bollinger Bands (BBs).}
{The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) rallied 1.7% but still sits within a steep downward trading channel.}
The volatility index, the VIX, only fell 5.5% and closed at 23.4. It is still at elevated levels (above 20) so the stock market remains very vulnerable to wide swings and sharp selling, but at least the intraday high did not reach the recent highs.
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rallied for a 2.1% gain. Unlike the other major indices, IWM managed to tap the upper bound of its downward trading channel. IWM hugged this line in the selling that led to the current levels. Follow-through buying would represent a very important breakout.
{The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is making another attempt to break out from its downward trading channel former by its lower Bollinger Bands.}
Although I did not get the volatility spike I wanted to trigger more aggressiveness, I still treated the rally as a validation of the bullish signs from the previous day. I focused on my shopping list even as I took my profits on my latest tranche of SPY call options (expiring Friday). I loaded up on CSX Corporation (CSX) calls, a calendar call spread on Intel (INTC), and of course I implemented my Facebook (FB) pre-earnings trade (twice!). I also decided to get aggressive with small caps given the abundance of beaten up small caps I saw with big gains on the day. I started accumulating call options on IWM expiring in 2 1/2 weeks. I capped off my hedges with a put spread on Boeing (BA) which rallied right to its 200DMA and an obligatory put option on Caterpillar (CAT). From here, I can stay 100% focused on the bullish buying opportunities…while of course keeping in my peripheral vision the on-going (technical) market risks that I have covered in previous Above the 40 posts.
GE retracing to below $12With current market GE stock is volatile at best, resistance likely at 11.88 and could retrace to 11.22 area if volatility increases. New CEO has yet to make any significant announcement, although just the announcement caused a nice bounce, which vaporized last week and into this week. Any LONG buyers, wait, wait, and follow the volume. Setting alerts (targets) using warnings. Aka 12.0, 11.90, and 11.50, which would then indicate going full Fibretracement or possibly larger selloff and below recent resistance in 11.25 and 11.20 range.
Viewers: Come to own conclusions, Rule #1 and Rule #2. Market is very dynamic , so riding a big wave too far onto sandy beach if not too careful.
GE / W1 : Weekly chart signals. Trade Validated.NOTE : first, be aware that the signal is a double Taking Profit pattern, which is the weakest possible one ! But regarding the way this asset got sold in a bullish market kind of makes me wonder how deep this could go if this was just for a retracement.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
The Stock Market's Anchors Ignore Over-Stretched Conditions AT40 = 38.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)
AT200 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX = 12.1
Short-term Trading Call: neutral
Commentary
Looks like I had good reason to give a tepid endorsement to the upside potential for the stock market off the over-stretched conditions on display in AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs). The S&P 500 (SPY) had every reason to rally robustly in the wake of a trade deal among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Instead, the index only gained as much as 0.5% or so before reversing almost the entire gain. Only a desperate bounce in the last 15 minutes of trading took the index to a 0.4% close.
The S&P 500 sustained a hollow victory with AT40 sinking on the day to close below 40% again. AT40 has not looked this bad since April. Now I think the risk of going even lower is somewhere higher than 50%.
The anchor from small caps weighed quite heavily on AT40. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) opened up and promptly faded from resistance at its 50DMA. IWM closed with a 1.3% loss and a 6-week low. A downtrend continues from IWM’s last all-time high.
The market did not worry about the broad, underlying weakness betraying the small gains on the S&P 500. The volatility index, the VIX, closed LOWER by about 1%. I went ahead and bought a small amount of SPY call options expiring October 8th that I plan to sell on the very next bounce or a fill of Monday’s gap up, whichever comes first. Beyond that trade, I am even more wary about the market than I was in the last Above the 40. I am still keeping the short-term trading call at neutral just out of deference for the relatively low level of AT40 while the S&P 500 remains above important support at its uptrending 20DMA.
CHART REVIEWS
General Electric (GE)
Last week I made the case for waiting on GE before making a fresh trade on a bottom. Then out of nowhere, GE replaced its CEO with former Danaher (DHR) CEO and current GE board member Larry Culp. The market’s initial reaction was extremely positive and easily cleared the thresholds for more safely playing a bottom. However, the stock failed to hold the best levels at the close and thus shut the down the buy trigger. GE even closed under its downtrending 20DMA; GE went from breakout to fakeout. This sharp fade makes a more aggressive trade even more risky than it looked on Friday.
CNBC Fast Money’s Karen Finerman made a case for a GE bottom from a fundamentals perspective. Like me, she likes the January 2020 call options. She is targeting the $13 strike while I have $15 strikes from an earlier dip.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Speaking of bottoms, TLT violated the bottom that I thought was secured with last week’s Federal Reserve announcement on monetary policy. Still, I doubled down on my TLT call options as they have suddenly become a very cheap hedge on bullishness. I fully expect TLT to soar again if the market sells off at some point this month.
Tesla (TSLA)
TSLA delivered major relief in line with CEO Elon Musk coming to his senses and settling fraud charges from the SEC. In keeping with the tantalizing theme, TSLA nearly perfectly filled Friday’s gap down. As is its habit, the stock even closed at an obvious technical level which in this case was 50DMA resistance.
United States Oil (USO)
I suddenly see an elephant in the room: oil. Oil prices soared today perhaps in sympathy with Canada and the U.S making nice on a trade deal that includes Mexico. Whatever the reason, oil sitting around 3-year highs is NOT good news for consumers. Moreover, inflation watchers are likely starting to worry about inflation expectations creeping higher along with oil prices. I am now watching oil a lot more closely.
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GE slowly reaches the end...Nearly two years of decline can be completed. In the exchange rate, it is possible to identify a so-called 2 and a half wave sequence that follows the exchange rate steadily during its two-year course. Therefore, there is no reason to deviate from this. This means that the wave structures in motion (regardless of the direction) consist of 2 whole and half wave structures. Of course, this is the distance of the ATR of that particular motion side. If we start from this mathematical model, it can be seen that GE's rate is based on the last decreasing wave structure. The target price may end somewhere between 8 to 10 usd. We are expecting a rising structure from there. GE's more distant target is 25 usd. Therefore, in this hope, you need to enter trading.
Do Not Argue With Sellers – Celebrate With Buyers: GE EditionGeneral Electric (GE) dropped 4.0% for a fourth straight day of high volume selling. At $11.27/share GE sits at a stomach-churning 9-year low.
GE’s early June expulsion from the Dow Jones Industrial Index seemed like such natural ignition for a bottom that even CNBC’s Jim Cramer got off the fence to declare the stock a buy. At the time I proposed a lower risk method of playing a potential bottom using call options. The call option configuration certainly helped ease the pain of the recent 9-year lows. Still, with selling accelerating, the temptation to consider the conditions for a bottom is too great to resist. Sure enough, Guy Adami on Fast Money offered his keys for determining whether GE (or any stock) has indeed finally reached bottom:
A new 52-week low on heavy volume: this action can indicate a wash-out of sellers.
Management is up-front and addressing the problems with the business: hope remains the company figure things out.
The company remains in a viable industry: the business and economic environment still gives the company time to turn things around.
I like Adami’s points. However, the title “how to catch a falling knife” is telling. Traders and investors should not actually reach out to catch a falling knife. Instead, they should step in when the risk of catching a knife is sufficiently low to make the risk worthwhile. In other words, I prefer to wait for “confirmation” that the falling knife has finished falling; I want the ground to catch the knife, not me.
Two years ago, I described this confirmation process in a piece titled “Do Not Argue With Sellers – Celebrate With Buyers.” When sellers have firm control of a stock, I want to wait for a some sign of buying like a trading day with a gain. A stronger confirmation occurs after buyers manage to establish control of the trading with a complete reversal of the most concentrated part of the sell-off. My only rare exception to the confirmation rule occurs when I have a strong conviction from some data or analysis that puts me in accumulation mode.
In the case of GE above, a close above $11.80 would be the first potential sign of a washout and exhaustion of sellers. A close above $12.71 would signal high odds of a complete washout. Since I already have a position in play, I am content to wait for this more definitive confirmation. Shorter-term traders should stop out of their long positions if GE manages to close below the latest low of $11.27. If GE closes at fresh lows, then the first signal of seller’s exhaustion adjusts downward to whatever closing price clears the intraday high of the last day of high-volume selling.
GE will continue to capture the imagination given its iconic status as a symbol of America’s industrial past. Now we wonder whether the future is waiting for GE as it sinks in stark contrast to the strength of the American economy and the near relentless up-trend of the S&P 500 (SPY).
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long GE call options
GE - Another Short Teaser?This a follow-up to the GE idea about the downtrend it started on May '17 through May '18. GE just broke down another support level at $12.60 after failing to even test the $14 mark. Right now the support break tells us that the stock is still weak, but it is still a little early to call it a bankruptcy confirmation. The stock is weak and would not be a great idea to buy now, whether to trade or to invest, but even though it looks short the downtrend has been stretched out for a long time.
Single digit numbers (below $10) would be really interesting but sad if it happens. Just like before, if GE holds below its $13.50 level and makes a correction to the downside, it would confirm my bias about poor performance based on the price action. As short as I am on this stock, it is still only a waiting game until a further sign of weakness appears.
Again, let's keep watching GE till about December to see if it makes up its mind. We will see how this plays out.