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Geopolitical

BTC/USD Weekly Elliot WaveHere's a possible scenario from the chart using a common Elliot Wave pattern. The dotted lines are support/resistance in confluence to the VPVR. Whether or not this plays out is dependent upon geopolitical concerns, and how the market responds to the fed increasing interest rates by 50 basis points next month. I will personally never sell the bulk of my Bitcoin, but I'm looking for a good entry point to deploy more capital. I'm going to be scouting on-chain metrics and looking at oscillators on the daily time frame to find some confirmation. I'm hoping this scenario plays out, but I still need more confirmation before I put in my long. ***Not financial advice***
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ZenitCrypto
What Will A Geopolitical Compromise Means For Markets?Henry Clay was a US Senator from Kentucky, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the US Secretary of State, and a Presidential candidate in the 1800s. His legacy and nickname were “The Great Compromiser” for his involvement with the Missouri Compromise, the Compromise Tariff of 1833, and the Compromise of 1850. As Henry Clay understood, any great compromise means that both sides at the negotiating table must come to an agreement that makes them uncomfortable or incomplete. The price of an asset is always the correct price A messy geopolitical landscape Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds Option two- A prolonged conflict Option three- The unthinkable In 2022, the geopolitical temperature has risen to the highest level since WW II. On February 4, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin met at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The leaders signed a $117 billion trade agreement, but the watershed event was the “no-limits” cooperation understanding. Twenty days later, after the end of the Olympics, Russia invaded Ukraine, launching the first major war on European soil in over three-quarters of a century. Many analysts believe the Russian invasion sets the stage for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Volatility in markets across all asset classes has increased, and uncertainty is the market’s worst enemy. The war, sanctions, retaliation, and a Chinese-Russian alliance threatens the status quo over the previous decades. The price of an asset is always the correct price As we learned in early 2020 in nearly all asset classes, bear markets can take prices to levels that defy logic and rational and logical analysis. The same holds on the upside as price spikes can reach unthinkable heights. The moves to the upside or downside compel many market participants to sell what they believe are tops or buy when they think the market cannot go any lower. Picking tops or bottoms is more about ego than making money, as the effort contradicts to prevailing trends. Picking a top or a bottom is a statement that the current price is too high or too low, which is always a mistake. Market participants can be wrong, but markets are never wrong. The price of any asset is always the right price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on a value in a transparent marketplace. Declaring a market top or bottom is a contrarian statement as it goes against the prevailing trend. A messy geopolitical landscape Two years ago, the world faced a common enemy as COVID-19 ignored borders, race, religion, political ideology, and all of the other factors that separate countries and people. In February and March 2022, the world faces new and daunting challenges: The Chinese and Russian leaders shook hands on a “no-limits” alliance. Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the first major war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine continues to put up fierce resistance. The US, NATO allies in Europe and allies worldwide slapped sanctions on Russia. Russia retaliated with export bans and other measures. North Korea test-fired ICBM missiles. Iran fired missiles near the US embassy in Iraq. Russian missiles came within miles of the Polish border. An attack on Poland triggers article five of NATO’s charter- An attack on one member is an attack on all. China and Russia stand on opposite sides of the conflict from the US and Europe. China plans to reunify with Taiwan against their will. On the US domestic scene, the US remains divided along political lines with mid-term elections in November. The central bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy during the pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse before the geopolitical landscape deteriorated. The war in Ukraine only exacerbates price increases as Russia is a leading world producer of raw materials. Europe’s breadbasket in Ukraine and Russia is now a mine and battlefield at the start of the 2022 crop year. Russia and Ukraine typically supply one-third of the world’s wheat and other crops. They are also leading fertilizer exporters, causing problems in other worldwide growing regions. In 2022, the war will lead to rising prices, falling supplies, and the potential for famine and civil uprisings. Historically, food shortages have caused many revolutions. The 2010 Arab Spring that began as food riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Biden administration pledged to address climate change by supporting alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. US production declined in 2021. After decades of working to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, US policy handed the pricing power to the international oil cartel. Since 2016, Russia has had an increasing role in OPEC’s production policy. In 2022, the cartel does not move unless Moscow agrees to cooperate. Oil prices were already rising when Russia invaded Ukraine, and they moved over $100 per barrel after the attack. Meanwhile, other fossil fuels have moved higher. Coal traded to a new all-time peak. US natural gas rose to a multi-year high, and European and Asia gas prices rose to record levels. Rising energy prices fueled inflation, and the war has poured fuel on an already burning inflationary fire. The war in Ukraine is less than one month old, and the human toll is rising. Tensions are at the highest level in decades. Markets are nervous, and the developments on the geopolitical over the coming days and weeks will dictate the direction of markets across all asset classes. I see three potential outcomes. Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds In the current standoff, neither side wants to give an inch. The Russian leader faces disgrace or worse if he loses to an inferior military but impassioned Ukrainian population, many of who would choose death over capitulation. The US and Europe do not want to appease Russia like the UK’s Nevil Chamberlain appeased Hitler in the 1930s. China may support Russia, but the world’s second-leading economy has close economic ties with the US and Europe. A Henry Clay-inspired great compromiser could emerge and come up with a solution where Russia, China, the US, Europe, and the rest of the world walk away from the negotiating table unhappy but with a workable solution. I believe, and it is more than a bit of wishful thinking, that this is the high odds result of the current geopolitical mess, and the result will go down in history as the great compromise of 2022. A great compromise would likely lead to a significant stock market rally and a commodity correction. Option two- A prolonged conflict A prolonged conflict where Russians fight a long and bloody war against Ukrainian forces will devastate the world economy and peace. Russia may capture territory, but it is clear President Putin will never capture the souls of the Ukrainian masses. The Russian brutality over the past weeks will never be forgotten. President Putin did not count on the passionate resistance Russian troops encountered across Ukraine. The longer the battle and the more brutal the weapons, the greater the price for Russians controlling the territory over the coming years. Millions of refugees have left the country, but that leaves over 40 million Ukrainians; most now consider Russians their mortal enemy. A long battle will weaken the Russian military and the Russian leader abroad. A prolonged conflict will cause sanctions to collapse Russia’s economy, causing domestic problems for President Putin and his government. Moreover, skirmishes are likely to break out worldwide. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, North Korea and Iran flexed their military muscles. With Europe and the US focused on Ukraine, China could use the opportunity to seize Taiwan. A prolonged conflict would weigh on US stocks and likely lift commodity prices to higher highs. Option three- The unthinkable The final option is the nuclear one, which is low odds, but a highly frightening scenario. If Russian aggression spreads across the Ukraine border into Poland or any NATO member country, it will trigger Article five that states an attack on one is an attack on all. The US and Russia have the most nuclear weapons, which increases the potential of MAD or mutually assured destruction. In this scenario, it does not matter how markets react as the world would face a disastrous situation. I believe that a great compromise is on the horizon, which would cause markets to stabilize. However, the extent of the compromise is critical as it must address the current situation in Ukraine and Taiwan and threats from North Korea and Iran. Anything short of a comprehensive understanding between the world’s powers will cause years of rising tension and threats to the nearly eight billion people that inhabit our planet. Where is Henry Clay when the world needs him? Expect the volatility in markets to continue. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
2
Gold Bullish Next Week!Hey traders I see bullish movements on Gold for the next week. Why? 1. It filled the imbalance perfectly then rejected! 2. Geopolitical News. 3. 2022 is a resistance that we are most likely to test out before deciding whether we will continue bullish or bearish! Notes: 1.We will see a retest at the price of 200 because 2000 is a strong resistance 2.There would be a gap when the market opens on Monday and we are most likely going to fill the gap before continuing with the bullish momentum Again, please study and use Risk Management properly and never revenge trading or get into a trade in which a SL u cant afford! Stay safe and dont ever trust 1 idea. I might be wrong as well, No one has it 100% Thank you for reading Bye
GLong
by Nanoplex
$PLG - ANOTHER ONE READY TO BLOWPLG is another name in a long list of stocks that look ready to run lately for geopolitical reasons. Platinum Group Metals Ltd. engages in the exploration and development of platinum and palladium properties. It explores for palladium, platinum, gold, copper, nickel, and rhodium deposits. The company holds 50.02% interest in the Waterberg project located on the Northern Limb of the Western Bushveld complex, South Africa. It also develops next-generation battery technology using platinum and palladium. Platinum Group Metals Ltd. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
AMEX:PLGLong
by jaykenneyTRT
ETH/ADA and Geopolitical IssuesETH and the crypto market at large have taken a sizable downturn. This comes after a small ETH rebound rally off of the ~2300~ support level. While the situation in Ukraine continues to develop, signs of fear are showing in investment markets around the world. While I usually only write about ETH, ADA has also caught my eye. The 0.80 level was broken , and reached as low as 0.74 . Because of the uncertainty here there is really no 'expected' price action, and I have no idea what will happen. All I can do is cost average into this dip.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Megaberry
Bounce on .5 Fibonacci ExtensionThe SPX & VXX both bounced from the .5 Fibonacci extension and retractement on daily time frames. Monday will be interesting with the Ukraine situations + Emergency FED Meeting results. I can see it going both ways unfortunately but the trend says we find a lower low. My gut tells me a no deal no info meeting through the weekend on Ukraine, and more accommodations from the fed because of Ukraine. These conditions could send the vix higher in the short term, we could finally see the sell off breadth we’ve been waiting for to call the bottom. Engulfments everywhere on the weekly’s charts look terrible. And the setup looks bullish to me on the VXX.
CBOE:VXX
by backupthetruck9000
Thoughts on Current Events and Price of BitcoinAt any moment there is supposedly an equal chance that the price will go up or down from the most recently exchanged rate. Looking at historical data, one might say that the best time to buy or sell is when it reached a certain risk level and presume similar proportions will be realized in the future and await that moment to act. This ignores macroeconomic and geopolitical forces that result from real world actions, which provide direction. Profits don't care about your facts. Daily swings can be forecast by recognizing accumulation and distribution patterns. Understanding who owns an asset and why they might be selling or ceasing to sell signals the direction they expect the price to take as they participate in taking it that way. Understanding who is buying an asset then when and how they will sell it also aides us in our own decisions. The price graph tells the story of what has happened. The story is told sentence after sentence, but only understood when read as a whole. I expect capital flight into digital currencies due to new money being created by central banks to support prices, unprofitable industries, and failing nations. The idea that a country's government (central bank) not be in control of the supply of the currency they use is motivation enough to not lose that grip, but eventually that nation is forced to abandon its own currency after printing enough of it in order to make debt payments, maintain relative confidence, and ultimately attempt to avoid uprising. Here's a chart of how I could see the end of the year playing out. A slower build is admittedly more likely, but this is an exuberant consideration which includes Biden winning the US election, Trump throwing a fit to save face but ultimately stepping aside. Civil unrest, such as, actual battles between militia and the Army, won't be good for investor confidence, as local economies shut down. Expect a major pullback in that scenario, but any skirmishes should be relatively short-lived, so the negative market sentiment would dissipate as well. The real fear is in the years to follow when the economy churns back up (velocity of money: amount of times a single unit of currency is exchanged within a period of time) with all the new money that has been created causing rapid increases in prices in the years to follow. For now, "we'll believe it when we see it" and continue our "slow" build.
BNC:BLXLong
by UbiquitousAngles
29000 COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN THE WORLD!Get ready! There are only two directions for price; UP or DOWN. In this screencast I show why the zone around 29000 could be the most important. See the broadening wedge. Price could go either way. If you believe that the FED and Mr Trump is gonna save the world, go long at 29000. If you believe a crash is coming take a short. If you believe 29 is a prime number of importance - act on it. :) Friday is not a good day for a crash. So if one has to happen it's better on a Monday. Hmmmm.. crash? What am I talking about!? Some may have heard about that a plane was brought down allegedly by Iranian missiles. This is in the news. American forces tracked a missile from Iran exploding near the location of the plane. An explosion was seen by the military. Remnants of a missile identified as Russian Tor M1 photographed near the crash site. Mysteriously, the supposed missile disappeared and then we're told it was never there. Obviously - it was photoshopped in - innit! I believe anything I'm told - right? Boeing shares rose on news that it was probably a missile that brought down the plane. Nothing surprising there. Anyways, Friday is not a good day for confirming that it was a missile (and I'm not saying it was). Monday - watch out. Disclaimers & Declarations: I've reported only information that is well in the public domain. I do not have any information other than reported facts. I have no way of knowing what reported facts in the media are the whole truth. I have made no political statements. References to Iran are part of what is in the public domain. I express no opinions other than what these matters mean for the markets. As usual this is not a recommendation to trade securities. If you lose our money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
USDRUB is ON Sale NowAfter the US took an airstrike on Iran and killing its top general, I have been looking for a countercurrency for USD other than Gold and Oil... and so, USDRUB was detected. Moreover, its price action gave us a convincing sell bias as it has successfully broken the weekly 200ma. This set up will be targeting 55.000 psychological level that was previously tested in 2018 with a risk control stop at 65.000 level. I was able to enter my sell order at 62 this Monday, Jan 06, and this pair is already trading at 61.15 as of this writing. My trading plan will be to partially take half my profit at 61 level, and addsome more at 60, letting the original half position and the additional order to ride the selling pressure upto 55 target price. Caveat! Let me know your comments and reactions too.
Short
by BadongDee
Oil descending triangle close to major daily supportDaily /CL is showing a descending triangle that looks to be close to a breakout. If it breaks to the downside, I think it will retest a major daily support level that dates back to 2015 (noted via the dashed line at bottom). Fundamentally, oil is at the mercy of geopolitical issues. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty between the U.S.A. and Iran. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and about a third of the world's oil passes through there. But, the U.S.A. is becoming a big time oil player, so the need for Hormuz is in question (I think). In addition to the Iran stuff going on, there's also the trade war and worries of a contracting economy - both of which are bearish for oil for a multitude of reasons, mostly demand. If a break to the downside happens, I will most likely go short. However, because of the fundamental uncertainties and how reliant oil is on geopolitical issues, I will keep my stop losses pretty tight. I will try to play it down to at least the major daily support level, and then possibly look for a bounce-off entry to retest the bottom of the triangle.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Bankuur
The Big one: showing serious potential trouble ahead. I do not trade this index. In this screencast I show how there was a major struggle in the world economies between February 2018 and today 28th October 2018. I explore potentials for Bitcoin and Gold. A major corrective move south n the MSCI-ACWI has happened. This index is an aggregate of world indices. What we see on this chart is: 1. Price struggling to stay afloat between February 2018 and October 2018. 2. Price has suddenly collapsed without sign of a significant rebellion (so far). What's all this about? It's about joining some important dots (not all): 1. The world is in a deepening financial crisis. 2. The IMF warned in early October quoting from reputable sources, that risks to the global economy are rising unsupported by increasingly unsustainable policies. They warned that, "The extended period of ultra-low interest rates in advanced economies has contributed to the build-up of financial vulnerabilities" 3. Global debt has reached unprecedented levels. 4. The American economy which tends to influence the world, is living on borrowed time. 5. The European Union is in a state of financial crisis: Italy more recently. Some have forgotten about Portugal, Greece and Spain (part of what is commonly known as the P.I.G.S - nothing derogatory implied] 6. The ECB will stop quantitative easing in December 2018 (it says). 7. Uncertainties about Brexit still loom and probabilities point to greater chance of a hard-Brexit. 8. Trad tensions are high with China and Russia. 9. Emerging market around the world are being hammered. The US stock market is the last in line for a potential beating. 10. Low interest rates over the last 10-15 years in many western countries have created a setup for boom bust cycles. In recent times global interest rates have been creeping up (on average), at among least major economies. Will reality win over hope and greed? We shall see. .
NASDAQ:ACWI
by Captain_Walker
US Dollar under potential threat as de-dollarization sets in.In this screencast, I'm looking ahead for potential moves, possibly south in the US-Dollar. This is about preparedness. In the video I explore emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that are taking place. The US-Dollar strength has big influence at this time on: 1. Commodities 2. Metals - especially Gold and Silver 3. Oil 4. Stock markets in the US and elsewhere. 5. US-Dollar currency pairs. - and more. This thing is big! There is reliable information about a silent forex war happening largely unseen as China, Russia and Japan are giving up US debt, and moving into Gold and Crytocurrencies. I don't do predictions, so I'm unable to say what this would mean for the future. Do not take my word for it - check out this stuff on reliable information channels (unable to give further information here - but PM me if you wish).
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by Captain_Walker