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Howmet Aerospace: Navigating Geopolitics to New Heights?Howmet Aerospace (HWM) has emerged as a formidable player in the aerospace sector, demonstrating exceptional resilience and growth amidst global uncertainties. The company's robust performance, marked by record revenues and significant earnings per share increases, stems from dual tailwinds: surging demand in commercial aerospace and heightened global defense spending. Howmet's diversified portfolio, which includes advanced engine components, fasteners, and forged wheels, positions it uniquely to capitalize on these trends. Its strategic focus on lightweight, high-performance parts for fuel-efficient aircraft like the Boeing 787 and Airbus A320neo, alongside critical components for defense programs such as the F-35 fighter jet, underpins its premium market valuation and investor confidence. The company's trajectory is deeply intertwined with the prevailing geopolitical landscape. Escalating international rivalries, particularly between the U.S. and China, coupled with regional conflicts, are driving an unprecedented surge in global military expenditures. European defense budgets are expanding significantly, fueled by the conflict in Ukraine and broader security concerns, leading to increased demand for advanced military hardware incorporating Howmet’s specialized components. Simultaneously, while commercial aviation navigates challenges like airspace restrictions and volatile fuel costs, the imperative for fuel-efficient aircraft, driven by both environmental regulations and economic realities, solidifies Howmet’s role in the industry’s strategic evolution. Howmet's success also reflects its adept navigation of complex geostrategic challenges, including trade protectionism. The company has proactively addressed potential tariff impacts, demonstrating a capacity to mitigate risks through strategic clauses and renegotiation, thereby protecting its supply chain and operational efficiency. Despite its premium valuation, Howmet’s strong fundamentals, disciplined capital allocation, and commitment to shareholder returns highlight its financial health. The company's innovative solutions, crucial for enhancing the performance and cost-effectiveness of next-generation aircraft, solidify its integral position within the global aerospace and defense ecosystem, making it a compelling consideration for discerning investors.
NYSE:HWMLong
by UDIS_View
Can Ondas Holdings Redefine Defense Tech Investment?Ondas Holdings (NASDAQ: ONDS) is carving a distinct path in the evolving defense technology landscape, strategically positioning itself amid escalating global tensions and the modernization of warfare. The company’s rise stems from a synergistic approach, combining innovative autonomous drone and private wireless network solutions with shrewd financial maneuvers. A pivotal partnership with Klear, a financial technology firm, provides Ondas and its growing ecosystem with non-dilutive working capital. This off-balance-sheet financing mechanism is crucial, enabling rapid expansion and strategic acquisitions within the capital-intensive defense, homeland security, and critical infrastructure sectors without shareholder dilution. Furthermore, Ondas's American Robotics subsidiary, a leader in FAA Type Certified autonomous drones, recently cemented a strategic manufacturing and supply chain partnership with Detroit Manufacturing Systems (DMS). This collaboration leverages U.S.-based production to enhance scalability, efficiency, and resilience in delivering American Robotics' advanced drone platforms. This domestic manufacturing focus aligns seamlessly with initiatives like the "Unleashing American Drone Dominance" executive order, which aims to bolster the U.S. drone industry, fostering innovation while safeguarding national security against foreign competition. The company's offerings directly address the paradigm shift in modern warfare. Ondas's private industrial wireless networks (FullMAX) provide critical secure communication for C4ISR and battlefield operations, while its autonomous drone solutions (like the Optimus System and Iron Drone Raider for counter-UAS) are integral to evolving surveillance, reconnaissance, and combat strategies. As geopolitical instabilities intensify, driving unprecedented demand for advanced defense capabilities, Ondas’s integrated operational and financial platform is primed for significant growth, attracting considerable investor interest with its innovative approach to capital deployment and technological advancement.
NASDAQ:ONDSLong
by UDIS_View
Looking for catalysts - Gold Outlook July 7 - July 11, 2025All about last week you can find here: FX_IDC:XAUUSD Gold is currently seeking fresh catalysts this week. 🧐 While the economic calendar appears light for this time of year, a lack of economic data doesn't mean nothing is happening. Geopolitical events, especially tariff wars or other flashpoints, remain significant. Are there increasing signs for peace in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas? 🕊️ This week Gold could take advantage from an exisiting reversal head and shoulders pattern and painting pitchfork in the chart shows possibillities for Upside targeting $3400. ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 Israel / Iran ⚔️🛑☢️ After fierce clashes in June, a **ceasefire** began June 24. 🇮🇷 Iran's Supreme Leader reappeared July 6, claiming victory 🎤. Tehran has now **banned IAEA inspectors** ❌🔍. Over 900 Iranians reportedly killed ⚰️. 🔮 Outlook: ⚠️ Nuclear tensions growing, diplomacy frozen 🧊. Regional powers remain on high alert 🚨. India / Pakistan 🗻🔫🕌 Tense calm in Kashmir 😐. India launched its sacred **Amarnath Yatra** 🕉️ under heavy security 🛡️. Pakistan killed 30 militants near the Afghan border ⚔️, while China 🐉 admitted sharing intel 📡. 🔮 Outlook: Diplomatic track stays open 🕊️, but **border flare-ups** and water disputes 💧 remain volatile 🔥. Gaza Conflict 💣🏘️🕊️ Israel launched deadly airstrikes ✈️, including one on a beach café ☕🏖️ killing 22. Dozens more died 💔. IDF admitted accidental strikes on aid sites 🚚❌. U.S.-led talks seek a **60-day truce** 🤝. 🔮 Outlook: Ceasefire possible 🛑, but **humanitarian crisis** worsening 🚨🩺. Trust remains fragile 💔. Russia / Ukraine ⚔️ Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 and Trump 📞 discussed new air defense aid 🎯. Russia answered with **massive drone strikes** on Kyiv 🚁🔥. NATO boosts arms shipments 🔫 and backs Ukraine’s domestic weapons production 🏭. 🔮 Outlook: War grinds on ⚙️. No peace in sight, with **global stakes** rising 📈. U.S. / China Trade War 💼📦🔥 With new tariffs looming 📆💣, Treasury said “multiple deals” are near 🤝. Trump claimed a **partial deal with China** 🐉, though tariffs remain high 📊. 🔮 Outlook: More piecemeal deals 🍰, but a **full-scale trade reset** looks unlikely before elections 🗳️. 🌍 Global Trade War 📉🚢💸 Trump’s shifting tariffs 🎯 hurt global growth 🌐. Markets hit record highs 📈 but investment chills ❄️. The 💵 dollar had its sharpest 6-month drop 📉 in decades. 🔮 Outlook: Businesses remain cautious ⚠️. **Supply chains** reroute 🔄. No global rebound without clarity 🔍. Trump vs. Powell 💥🏛️📉 Trump demanded Powell’s resignation ❌📉, accusing him of weak rate policy 📊. Powell held firm 🧊, citing inflation risks 📈. Trump eyes replacements 👀🪑. 🔮 Outlook: Fed independence 🏛️ under fire 🔥. **Rate policy** may get politicized ahead of 2025 elections 🗳️. 📈 U.S. Inflation 🛒💰🧾 Inflation slowed to 0.1% 🐢, but tariffs raised prices on appliances 🔌 (+4.3%) and toys 🧸. Fed projects 3% inflation by year-end 📊. 🔮 Outlook: As **tariffs bite** 🦷, inflation likely to climb 📈. Fed stays cautious 🧐 on cuts. Technical View 📐📈 Analysis Period: May 25 - June 6, 2025 | Forecast: June 7-11, 2025 1. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis 🧠 Market Structure Higher Timeframe Bias: The chart shows a clear bullish market structure with higher highs and higher lows from the major low around 3,250. 🐂 Current Structure: Price is in a consolidation phase after reaching highs near 3,370, showing potential distribution. ⚖️ Key ICT Concepts Identified: Fair Value Gap (FVG): Multiple gaps visible during the strong rally from 3,250 to 3,370. 💨 Order Blocks: Significant demand zone around 3,250-3,260 level (major accumulation area). 📦 Liquidity Zones: Buy-side liquidity above 3,370 (recent highs). 💸 Sell-side liquidity below 3,320 (recent consolidation lows). 📉 Market Maker Models: Classic accumulation-manipulation-distribution pattern visible. 🔄 Session Analysis: London Session: Shows strong directional moves. 🇬🇧 New York Session: Continuation of trends with increased volatility. 🗽 Asian Session: Consolidation and range-bound behavior. 🌏 2. Gann Analysis 🧙‍♂️ Gann Angles & Time Cycles: Primary Trend: 1x1 angle supporting the bullish move from 3,250. ↗️ Resistance Angles: 2x1 and 3x1 angles providing resistance around current levels. 🚧 Time Cycles: 7-day cycle showing completion around June 2-3. 🗓️ 14-day cycle suggesting potential reversal window June 7-9. ⏳ Gann Price Levels: Major Support: 3,250 (1/8 level). 🛡️ Current Resistance: 3,370 (7/8 level). 🛑 Next Target: 3,400 (full octave completion). 🎯 Geometric Relationships: Price squared relationship suggests 3,380-3,400 as natural resistance. 📐 Time-price balance indicates consolidation period before next major move. 🕰️⚖️ 3. Fibonacci Analysis ✨ Retracement Levels (from 3,250 low to 3,370 high): 23.6%: 3,341.6 38.2%: 3,324.2 50.0%: 3,310.0 61.8%: 3,295.8 78.6%: 3,265.6 Extension Levels: 127.2%: 3,402.6 161.8%: 3,444.2 200.0%: 3,490.0 Current Analysis: Price has respected the 23.6% retracement level multiple times. ✅ Strong support confluence at 38.2% level (3,324). 💪 Extension targets suggest potential move to 3,402-3,444 range. 🚀 4. Institutional Levels Analysis 🏦 Psychological Levels: 3,300: Major round number providing support. 💯 3,350: Mid-level resistance. 📊 3,400: Next major psychological target. 🎯 Institutional Order Flow: Accumulation Zone: 3,250-3,280 (heavy institutional buying). 💰 Distribution Zone: 3,350-3,370 (profit-taking area). 💸 Breakout Target: 3,400+ (next institutional objective). ⬆️ Volume Analysis: High volume on the initial move up from 3,250. 📈 Decreasing volume during consolidation (typical distribution pattern). 📉 Volume expansion needed for breakout confirmation. 💥 5. Cycle Timing Analysis ⏰ Short-Term Cycles: 3-day cycle: Currently in compression phase. 🤏 7-day cycle: Completed around June 2-3. ✅ 14-day cycle: Due for completion June 7-9. ⏳ Medium-Term Cycles: Monthly cycle: Bullish momentum phase. ⬆️ Quarterly cycle: In expansion phase. 🌟 Cycle Projection: Next major cycle turn expected June 7-9. 🔄 Potential for either breakout or correction during this window. 🤞 6. FORECAST: June 7-11, 2025 🔮 Primary Scenario (60% probability): Bullish Breakout 🚀 Target 1: 3,400-3,410 Target 2: 3,440-3,450 Catalyst: Break above 3,370 with volume. 💥 Timeline: June 7-9 initial move, June 10-11 extension. Secondary Scenario (35% probability): Corrective Pullback ⬇️ Target 1: 3,320-3,325 (38.2% Fibonacci) Target 2: 3,300-3,310 (psychological support) Catalyst: Failure to break 3,370 resistance. 🚫 Timeline: June 7-8 decline, June 9-11 consolidation. Low Probability Scenario (5% probability): Deep Correction 📉 Target: 3,280-3,290 (61.8% Fibonacci) Catalyst: Major risk-off sentiment. 😱 Timeline: Extended throughout the week. 7. Key Assumptions & Risk Factors 🤔 Bullish Assumptions: Continued institutional accumulation at current levels. 🏦 Breakout above 3,370 with confirming volume. ⬆️ Favorable macroeconomic backdrop for gold. 🌍 Weakness in USD supporting gold prices. 💵 Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven demand. 🕊️ Bearish Risk Factors: Profit-taking at psychological 3,400 level. 🤝 Stronger USD due to economic data. 💹 Reduced safe-haven demand. 📉 Technical failure at key resistance levels. 🚧 Central bank policy shifts. 🏛️ 8. Trading Recommendations 💡 Entry Strategies: Bullish Setup: Buy on pullback to 3,340-3,345 with stop below 3,320. 🎯 Breakout Play: Buy break above 3,372 with stop below 3,350. 🚀 Conservative: Wait for retest of 3,324 support area. patiently 🧘 Risk Management: Position Size: Limit to 2-3% of portfolio per trade. 📏 Stop Loss: Always use stops below key support levels. ⛔ Take Profit: Scale out at Fibonacci extension levels. 💰 Key Levels to Watch: Immediate Resistance: 3,365-3,370 🛑 Support: 3,340-3,345 🛡️ Breakout Level: 3,372 🚀 Major Support: 3,320-3,325 💪 9. Conclusion ✅ The XAUUSD chart presents a constructive bullish setup with multiple confluences supporting higher prices. The completion of various cycles around June 7-9 suggests a potential catalyst for the next major move. While the primary bias remains bullish targeting 3,400+, traders should remain alert to the possibility of a corrective pullback to test lower support levels. 🧐 The institutional accumulation pattern, combined with favorable Gann angles and Fibonacci projections, supports the bullish thesis. However, proper risk management is essential given the potential for volatility around key psychological levels. ⚠️ Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2
Down the road - Gold Outlook June 30 - July 24, 2025FX_IDC:XAUUSD 📰 The past weeks has been a wild ride for gold prices, caught between the fiery conflict in the Middle East and a deluge of crucial economic data from the U.S. 📈 Adding to this, a detailed technical analysis provides a deeper look into gold's immediate future. **Geopolitical Drama Unfolds & Peace Prevails!** 🕊️ ceasefire negotiations. Initially, gold was shrouded in uncertainty 🌫️ due to the Iran-Israel war, with markets bracing for potential U.S. involvement and a full-blown escalation. Daily tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel kept everyone on edge, and the question of U.S. intervention remained a nail-biter 😬, though President Trump did announce a 14-day "timeout". Then came the dramatic twist on June 21st: "Operation Midnighthammer" saw the U.S. unleash bunker-buster bombs on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. 💥 Short time later, the U.S. declared mission accomplished, stating their goal of destroying these sites was achieved, and no further attacks would follow. Iran's response, "Operation Annunciation of Victory," on the following Monday, involved missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. 🚀 Interestingly, these attacks were pre-announced, allowing for safe evacuations and thankfully, no casualties. 🙏 The biggest surprise came from President Trump as he declared, "Congratulations world, it's time for peace!" 🎉 He then brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which, despite being fragile, largely held, leading to the war's end.🤝 Both nations, as expected, officially claimed victory – a common move to satisfy their citizens. 🏅 Personally, I was genuinely surprised that the U.S.President mediated ceasefire, actually brought the conflict to a close – but it's a welcome outcome! 🙏 **Economic Data & Fed's Steady Hand** 💹🏛️ The cessation of hostilities triggered a steady downward slide in gold prices from June 24th to 27th. ⬇️ This dip initially met some market resistance but it ultimately prevailed, especially with the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which, despite being varied, was generally interpreted positively by the market. The spotlight also shone on the Federal Reserve, with several representatives speaking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell undergoing a two-day Senate hearing. 🎤👨‍⚖️ Powell meticulously explained the Fed's rationale for holding interest rates steady, despite market pressures. 🤷 However, recent whispers suggest the Federal Reserve might actually cut rates in September! 😮 ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 India / Pakistan Pakistan rejected claims that it supported militant groups active in Indian Kashmir. India issued a formal protest but reported no fresh border clashes during the week. Outlook 🔮: De-escalation is possible in the short term. However, unresolved disputes over water rights (Indus Treaty) could reignite tensions. Gaza Conflict Heavy Israeli airstrikes killed dozens in Gaza, including civilians near aid centers. The UN warned that U.S.-backed aid systems are failing. Humanitarian corridors remain blocked. Outlook 🔮: Ceasefire talks may resume in July, but success depends on international pressure and safe humanitarian access. Russia / Ukraine Russia advanced 36 sq mi in eastern Ukraine, deploying outdated T-62 tanks. Ukraine reinforced defensive lines, aided by Western military packages. Outlook 🔮: The front remains volatile. Sustained Western support will be key to halting further Russian gains. U.S. – China Trade War A breakthrough deal was signed for China to fast-track rare-earth exports to the U.S. Talks on tech transfer and tariffs continue behind closed doors. Outlook 🔮: A phased de-escalation is possible, but deep trust issues linger, especially over semiconductors and AI. 🌐 Global Trade War Several countries, including Brazil and Thailand, imposed fresh restrictions on Chinese imports, echoing the U.S. stance. Global supply chains remain fragmented. Outlook 🔮: Trade blocs like the EU and Mercosur may take on greater importance as countries hedge against rising protectionism. Trump vs. Powell Fed Chair Powell resisted political pressure, stating rate cuts are unlikely before September. Trump called him “stubborn” and demanded immediate easing. Outlook 🔮: The Fed’s independence is under strain. If Trump wins re-election, major policy shifts could follow. 📈 U.S. Inflation Despite tariffs, core inflation remains elevated. Powell warned of persistent price pressures. Trump insists the Fed should cut rates to boost growth. Outlook 🔮: A rate cut later in 2025 is possible—if labor market data weakens. Until then, inflation will remain politically explosive. ## Technical View 📐📈 **Current Market Context:** Gold plummeted to $3,273.67 USD/t.oz on June 27, 2025, marking a 1.65% drop from the previous day, which confirms the strong bearish momentum. The price action shows a significant retreat from recent highs around $3,400. **ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis:** * **Market Structure:** The trend is clearly bearish, with a definitive break of structure (BOS) to the downside. * **Order Blocks:** Several bearish order blocks have been identified at prior resistance levels, specifically in the $3,380-$3,400 range. * **Fair Value Gaps (FVG):** The aggressive sell-off has created multiple imbalances, particularly in the $3,350-$3,320 range. * **Liquidity Pools:** Buy-side liquidity above $3,400 has been swept. Sell-side liquidity is now accumulating below the $3,270 lows, which is the current target zone. * **Session Analysis:** The London session showed aggressive selling, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the New York session. The Asia session could see consolidation or further declines. * **Smart Money Concepts:** Heavy selling pressure suggests "smart money" distribution. There's been strong bearish displacement from $3,380 down to $3,270, indicating the market is currently in a "sell program" phase. **Gann Analysis:** * **Gann Angles & Time Cycles:** The primary 1x1 Gann angle has been broken, pointing to continued weakness. Key price squares indicate resistance at $3,375 (25²) and support at $3,249 (57²). Daily cycles suggest a potential turning point around June 30-July 1, while weekly cycles indicate continued pressure through early July. * **Gann Levels:** * Resistance: $3,375, $3,400, $3,481 (59²) * Support: $3,249, $3,136, $3,025 **Fibonacci Analysis:** * **Key Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):** * 78.6%: $3,378 (Strong resistance) * 61.8%: $3,348 (Key resistance zone) * 50.0%: $3,325 (Psychological level) * 38.2%: $3,302 (Minor resistance) * 23.6%: $3,285 (Current area of interest) * **Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):** * 127.2%: $3,245 * 161.8%: $3,195 * 261.8%: $3,095 * **Time-Based Fibonacci:** The next significant time cluster is July 2-3, 2025, with a major cycle completion expected around July 15-17, 2025. **Institutional Levels & Volume Analysis:** * **Key Institutional Levels:** * Major Resistance: $3,400 (psychological + institutional) * Secondary Resistance: $3,350-$3,375 (order block cluster) * Primary Support: $3,250-$3,270 (institutional accumulation zone) * Major Support: $3,200 (monthly pivot area) * **Volume Profile Analysis:** * High Volume Node (HVN): $3,320-$3,340 (fair value area) * Low Volume Node (LVN): $3,280-$3,300 (potential acceleration zone) * Point of Control (POC): Currently around $3,330 **Central Bank & Hedge Fund Levels:** Based on recent COT data and institutional positioning, heavy resistance is seen at $3,400-$3,430, where institutions likely distributed. An accumulation zone for "smart money" re-entry is anticipated at $3,200-$3,250. **Cycle Timing Analysis:** * **Short-Term Cycles (Intraday):** Bearish momentum is expected to continue for another 12-18 hours. A daily cycle low is likely between June 29-30, with a potential reversal zone on July 1-2 for the 3-day cycle. * **Medium-Term Cycles:** The current weekly cycle is in week 3 of a 4-week decline. The monthly cycle indicates a mid-cycle correction within a larger uptrend. For the quarterly cycle, Q3 2025 could see a major low formation. * **Seasonal Patterns:** July-August is typically a weaker period for gold ("Summer Doldrums"). September has historically been strong for precious metals ("September Effect"), setting up for a potential major move higher in Q4 2025 ("Year-End Rally"). **Trading Strategy & Levels:** * **Bearish Scenario (Primary):** * Entry: Sell rallies into the $3,320-$3,350 resistance zone. * Targets: $3,250, $3,200, $3,150. * Stop Loss: Above $3,380. * **Bullish Scenario (Secondary):** * Entry: Buy support at $3,250-$3,270 with confirmation. * Targets: $3,320, $3,375, $3,400. * Stop Loss: Below $3,230. **Key Events to Watch:** * **US PCE Data:** Fresh downside risks could emerge ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release. * **Fed Communications:** Any hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could further pressure gold. * **Geopolitical Developments:** Ongoing global events could trigger safe-haven demand. **Conclusion:** The technical picture for gold suggests continued short-term weakness, with the metal testing its 2025 trend line at $3,290 following last week's rejection at the $3,430 resistance. However, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, given gold's robust performance year-to-date. Key support at $3,250-$3,270 will be crucial in determining the next significant price movement. **Upcoming Week's Economic Calendar (June 29 - July 4, 2025):** 🗓️🌍 🗓️ Get ready for these important economic events (EDT) * ** Sunday , June 29, 2025** * 21:30 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 49.6, Previous: 49.5 * ** Monday , June 30, 2025** * 09:45 USD: Chicago PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 42.7, Previous: 40.5 * ** Tuesday , July 1, 2025** * 05:00 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) - Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.9% * 09:30 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 52.0, Previous: 52.0 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 70.2, Previous: 69.4 * 10:00 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (May) - Forecast: 7.450M, Previous: 7.391M * ** Wednesday , July 2, 2025** * 08:15 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) - Forecast: 80K, Previous: 37K * 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories - Forecast: -5.836M * ** Thursday , July 3, 2025** * Holiday: United States - Independence Day (Early close at 13:00) 🇺🇸⏰ * 08:30 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4% * 08:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 239K, Previous: 236K * 08:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) - Forecast: 129K, Previous: 139K * 08:30 USD: Unemployment Rate (Jun) - Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2% * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 53.1, Previous: 53.1 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 49.9 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 68.7 * ** Friday , July 4, 2025** * All Day: Holiday - United States - Independence Day 🎆 **Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Week** 🔮💰 Given last week's market movements, there's a strong likelihood that the downward trend in gold prices will continue.🔽 However, fresh news can always flip the script! 🔄 As of now, I expect gold to dip further to $3255 by mid-next week. Yet, a brief rebound towards $3300 isn't out of the question before a potential drop to $3200 by week's end or early the following week. 🤞 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, we witnessed the successful completion of the Outer Currency Rally at a level of 1.177. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is likely to encounter a downward trend, with an initial target set at the Mean Support level of 1.168 and a potential extension to an additional Mean Support of 1.160. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the possibility of a subsequent increase toward the next Outer Currency Rally level of 1.187 before any definitive downward movement transpires.
by TradeSelecter
Gold May Find Support From These Various FactorsGold May Find Support Amid Concerns Over U.S. Debt Sustainability, Economic Weakness, and Renewed Geopolitical Tensions Gold prices are holding steady today, near $1,353 per ounce in spot trading, in what is expected to be a low-liquidity session due to the early closure of U.S. markets. This follows three consecutive days of gains. The yellow metal’s subdued movement comes as markets await key labor market data that may offer further insight into the health of the U.S. economy, especially after the recent shock from ADP figures. Gold continues to find support from several underlying factors that could sustain its upward trend this week. These include rising uncertainty around the long-term sustainability of U.S. public finances and the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability have intensified following the introduction of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which combines tax cuts with spending reductions. In an opinion article for The New York Times , former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers warn of the bill’s potentially severe consequences, including persistently high interest rates, reduced business confidence, falling investment, and the risk of a financial shock that markets may struggle to absorb. This could also leave the economy more vulnerable to economic and geopolitical threats. Such risks may erode investor confidence in U.S. government debt, potentially boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset even in an environment of elevated bond yields and prolonged high interest rates. On the geopolitical front, the specter of renewed escalation in the Middle East looms, and this time, the consequences could be more severe. Amid conflicting reports and statements regarding the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, both sides appear to be preparing for the possibility of renewed hostilities. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, and hardline voices continue to call for a return to conflict. In an opinion piece for The New York Times, former National Security Advisor John Bolton described negotiations with Iran as ineffective and dangerous, calling instead for regime change and the use of force. While previous rounds of conflict have not caused lasting damage to the global economy or energy supply chains, a new round may prove more disruptive. According to Reuters , Iran has reportedly loaded naval mines onto vessels, raising fears that it may attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would cross a critical threshold and turning a contained conflict into one with global economic implications. The Strait of Hormuz handles over one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports. However, Iran may avoid this step as long as its own oil exports continue flowing through the strait, as was the case during the last conflict in June. On the trade front, there is growing optimism about the potential for new agreements that could ease tensions that have disrupted global supply chains and threatened U.S. and global economic growth. This optimism follows President Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam. There is also hope that progress can be made with China. Recent reciprocal steps, that involve the easing of restrictions on rare earth exports by China and some relaxation of U.S. technology export controls, suggest that the de-escalation agreed upon earlier in Switzerland could hold, potentially laying the groundwork for a broader trade agreement. Samer Hasn
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa
Is Japan's Economic Future at a Tariff Crossroads?The Nikkei 225, Japan's benchmark stock index, stands at a critical juncture, facing significant pressure from potential US tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. This assertive stance by US President Donald Trump has already triggered a notable decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 experiencing a 1.1% drop and the broader Topix Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday, marking consecutive days of losses. This immediate market reaction, characterized by a broad-based selloff across all sectors, underscores profound investor concern and a pre-emptive pricing-in of negative outcomes, particularly for the highly vulnerable automotive and agricultural sectors. The looming July 9 deadline for a trade agreement is pivotal, with President Trump explicitly stating his intention not to extend the current tariff pause. These proposed tariffs would far exceed previous rates, adding substantial financial burdens to industries already facing existing levies. Japan's economy, already struggling with a recent contraction in GDP and persistent declines in real wages, is particularly susceptible to such external shocks. This pre-existing economic fragility implies that the tariffs could amplify existing weaknesses, pushing the nation closer to recession and intensifying domestic discontent. Beyond immediate trade concerns, Washington appears to be leveraging the tariff threat to compel allies like Japan to increase military spending, aiming for 5% of GDP amidst rising geopolitical tensions. This demand strains the "ironclad" US-Japan military alliance, as evidenced by diplomatic setbacks and Japan's internal political challenges in meeting such ambitious defense targets. The unpredictable nature of US trade policy, coupled with these geopolitical undercurrents, creates a complex environment where Japan's economic stability and strategic autonomy are simultaneously challenged, necessitating significant strategic adjustments in its international relationships.
INDEX:NKYShort
by UDIS_View
Is Mexico's Peso at the Crossroads?The recent imposition of U.S. sanctions on three Mexican financial institutions - CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa - has ignited a crucial debate over the Mexican peso's stability and the intricate dynamics of U.S.-Mexico relations. Washington accuses these entities of laundering millions for drug cartels and facilitating fentanyl precursor payments, marking the first actions under new anti-fentanyl legislation. While these institutions collectively hold a relatively small portion of Mexico's total banking assets (less than 3%), the move carries significant symbolic weight and prompts a re-evaluation of the peso's outlook. The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, swiftly rejected the allegations, demanding concrete evidence and initiating its investigations, including the temporary regulatory intervention of CIBanco and Intercam to safeguard depositors. Economically, the peso faces a nuanced landscape. Before the sanctions, the Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated remarkable resilience, appreciating significantly against the dollar, bolstered by Mexico's comparatively higher interest rates and robust trade flows with the U.S. However, the recent divergence in monetary policy, with **Banxico** easing rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, now presents a potential headwind for the peso. While analysts generally suggest limited systemic risk to Mexico's broader financial system from these targeted sanctions, the action introduces an element of uncertainty. It raises concerns about potential capital flight, increased compliance costs for other Mexican financial institutions, and a possible erosion of investor confidence, factors that could exert downward pressure on the peso. Geopolitically, these sanctions underscore the escalating U.S. campaign against fentanyl trafficking, now intricately linked with broader trade and security tensions. President Donald Trump's past threats of punitive tariffs on Mexican imports - aimed at curbing drug flows - highlight the volatile nature of this bilateral relationship. The sanctions serve as a potent political message from Washington, signaling its resolve to combat the fentanyl crisis on all fronts, including financial pipelines. This diplomatic friction, coupled with the ongoing complexities of migration and security cooperation, creates a challenging backdrop for the USD/MXN exchange rate. While the U.S. and Mexico maintain a strong intergovernmental relationship, these pressures test the limits of their collaboration and could influence the peso's trajectory in the medium term.
Long
by UDIS_View
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the course of this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited a strong rebound, successfully retesting and surpassing the Outer Currency Rally threshold of 1.163. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is poised for further upward advancement, with the key target to reach the outer currency rally target of 1.177. Nonetheless, it is essential to recognize the possibility of a subsequent decline to the Mean Support level of 1.160 before a definitive upward movement.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout this week’s trading session, Bitcoin has demonstrated an upward trajectory and is positioned to achieve the specified targets of Mean Resistance 110300 and Key Resistance 111700. This progression may ultimately culminate in the realization of the Outer Coin Rally 114500 and beyond. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognize the possibility of a subsequent decline from the current price to the Mean Support level of 104900 before a definitive upward rebound.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Can Gold Regain Ground as Risk Factors Persist? Gold is holding steady and posting a modest rebound today after notable losses yesterday, though it continues to struggle to reclaim the $3,330 per ounce level. The precious metal’s ability to resume gains stems from continued market uncertainty surrounding both geopolitical and trade-related risks, which could sustain demand for safe-haven assets. On the geopolitical front, despite the optimism sparked by the surprise ceasefire agreement that ended the twelve-day war between Israel and Iran, the possibility of renewed escalation remains on the table. Media outlets have been abuzz with a leaked intelligence report to CNN that was about that the U.S. strike only managed to delay Iran’s nuclear program by a few months and did not eliminate its stockpile of enriched uranium. In other words, the war ended before achieving its core objective—let alone dismantling Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. This could also complicate any future negotiations, as Israel may double down on its demands for a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, while Tehran may cling even more tightly to these programs following the recent conflict. On the other hand, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman expressed hope that the political fallout for both sides might generate internal pressure strong enough to prevent another confrontation. In any case, should escalation resume, markets may enter a new cycle of geopolitical risk. However, such episodes are unlikely to last long unless the red line is crossed, namely, direct attacks on key oil and gas export infrastructure or on global shipping routes. This logic explains the fragile nature of the risk premiums that both oil and gold gained during earlier waves of escalation. Now that the latest round of conflict has ended, the market's attention could shift back to trade tensions, which remain unresolved. The suspension of U.S. tariffs on the European Union is set to expire in early July, with the deadline for China following in mid-August. This comes at a time when businesses still face considerable uncertainty over tariffs and inflationary pressures, as highlighted in recent S&P Global PMI surveys across the Eurozone and the United States . A return to tariffs or the collapse of trade negotiations could once again ignite fears of persistent inflation, which would likely keep interest rates elevated for longer in the U.S. This, in turn, poses a threat to economic growth. This is the dynamic that has historically been supportive for gold. Conversely, resolving these concerns may strip gold of one of its main drivers, making previous record highs harder to reach.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by SamerHa
WTI CRUDE OIL USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Price is reacting from a weekly FVG just below the 50% of a larger range, with some bullish momentum possibly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions. But price is still within a bearish range acting as resistance, so upside may remain limited unless structure shifts. A daily bullish OB below the 50% of that range could offer a solid pullback entry if price retraces which is aligning with the broader narrative and upside liquidity. Im having a neutral view of this and leveraging on both sides. What are your thoughts?
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
by AnthonyAaron
CRUDE OIL poised to go UP AGAIN? Usually my posts on crude oil are short. but here’s a longer one for a change. Back in December, I predicted that crude oil would hit the highlighted zone around $57. That’s exactly what happened, hit the target and bounced. Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen wild swings in crude oil prices as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated. But now, following the ceasefire announcement brokered by President Trump, and considering Iran’s response over the past couple of days, crude oil has dropped below its pre-conflict price levels. While I truly hope for a peaceful world where no innocent lives are harmed, my personal view is that this ceasefire feels fragile and may not last long. So, what’s next for crude oil? Up or down? If the ceasefire holds and we don’t see further conflict in the Middle East, I think crude oil could hover in the $65–$75 range. There’s even a slim chance we dip as low as $45. However, based on my technical analysis model, and my doubts about the durability of the ceasefire, I expect oil prices to rise in the next 6 to 9 months. My targets? $78 and $85. Of course, I might be wrong this time. :) Cheers!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by SamanFx0
Oil Price: Breakout or Fakeout? Watch This Zone Closely Technical Overview: The current price action is testing the upper boundary of a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern. The recent strong green candle indicates a potential breakout attempt, yet price is hovering near a critical resistance level at $74.20 (Fib 0.5). Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement are: 🔼 Resistance at $74.20 (0.5), then $78.16 (0.618) 🧲 Local support at $69.78 (0.382) 🛡️ Strong demand zone near $63.81 (0.236) if rejection occurs Structure + Patterns: Price has been compressing inside a falling wedge, which statistically resolves to the upside. The breakout candle broke above the 20 EMA and touched the upper wedge resistance — signaling a decision point. Volume is rising on bullish candles — initial confirmation of buyer interest, but not yet decisive. Scenarios to Watch Bullish Case: Break and close above $74.20 on higher volume → likely move toward $78–$86 resistance zone. Confirmation of wedge breakout could trigger trend reversal, aligning with bullish fib levels. Momentum could accelerate if macro factors support demand (see geopolitics below). Bearish Case: Failure to close above $74.20 = fakeout risk → price may reject down to $69.78 or even retest $63.81. Bearish rejection wick on the daily/4H would be an early signal. Macro & Geopolitical Factors to Monitor: Middle East Tensions: Any escalation (especially around Iran or shipping lanes) could spike oil due to supply fears. US Strategic Reserves & Elections: Moves to refill reserves or control inflation could support demand. China Demand Recovery: Data showing improved industrial output or stimulus from PBoC may strengthen global oil outlook. Final Thoughts: Price is at a pivot zone — breaking this wedge with strength could shift the short-to-midterm trend. Until then, this remains a "show me" breakout . Watch how the next 1–2 weekly candles close around the $74–$75 area to confirm direction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by SheTradesHub
Can Geopolitics Power Tech's Ascent?The Nasdaq index recently experienced a significant surge, driven largely by an unexpected de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. Following a weekend where U.S. forces reportedly attacked Iranian nuclear sites, investors braced for a volatile Monday. However, Iran's measured response - a missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, notably without casualties or significant damage - signaled a clear intent to avoid wider conflict. This pivotal moment culminated in President Trump's announcement of a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE" on Truth Social, which immediately sent U.S. stock futures, including the Nasdaq, soaring. This rapid shift from geopolitical brinkmanship to a declared truce fundamentally altered risk perceptions, alleviating immediate concerns that had weighed on global markets. This geopolitical calm proved particularly beneficial for the Nasdaq, an index heavily weighted towards technology and growth stocks. These companies, often characterized by global supply chains and reliance on stable international markets, thrive in environments of reduced uncertainty. Unlike sectors tied to commodity prices, tech firms derive their value from innovation, data, and software assets, which are less susceptible to direct geopolitical disruptions when tensions ease. The perceived de-escalation of conflict not only boosted investor confidence in these growth-oriented companies but also potentially reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy, a factor that profoundly impacts the borrowing costs and valuations of high-growth technology firms. Beyond the immediate geopolitical relief, other crucial factors are shaping the market's trajectory. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, where he will discuss monetary policy, remains a key focus. Investors are closely scrutinizing his remarks for any indications regarding future interest rate adjustments, particularly given current expectations for potential rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, significant corporate earnings reports from major companies like Carnival Corporation (CCL), FedEx (FDX), and BlackBerry (BB) are due. These reports will offer vital insights into various sectors' health, providing a more granular understanding of consumer spending, global logistics, and software security, thereby influencing overall market sentiment and the Nasdaq's continued performance.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by UDIS_View
Crude Oil Prices Rocketing amid geopolitical risks NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! NYMEX:BZ1! Macro: Geopolitical tensions remain high and markets are now likely to price in our scenario discussing ongoing air and missile war, given one-off intervention from the US thus far. According to Reuters, the U.S. now assesses that Iranian retaliation could occur within the next two days.What happens next is anybody’s guess but as traders, it is important to navigate these uncertainties with scenario planning and/or reduce risk to account for increased volatility. We also get Services and Manufacturing PMI data today and PCE Price Index on Friday. Chair Powell is set to testify on Tuesday 9am CT. Key levels: Jan 2025 High: 76.57 2025 High: 78.40 2025 CVAH(Composite Value Area High): 75.68 Key LIS zone: 73.50-73.15 We anticipate the following scenarios in crude oil: Scenario 1: Prices remain elevated as tensions remain high, despite limited retaliation, however, the situation overall now escalated beyond return to diplomacy. Scenario 2: Any push towards de-escalation, unlikely in our analysis, but given the headline risk, crude prices may remain volatile and come off the highs. Given our key LIS (Line in Sand) zone above, we favor longs above this and shorts below this zone.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Gold Slides as Markets Downplay the Fallout of ME EscalationGold prices are trending lower today after a slight positive open, struggling to hold near $3,365 per ounce, hovering just above the lowest level in over ten days. This weak performance comes as markets continue to downplay the consequences of the unprecedented U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Previously, experts had viewed a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites as the line between a limited bilateral conflict with Israel and a full-blown regional war with global economic costs. Fears centered around a potential Iranian—or proxy—attack on the region’s vital oil and gas infrastructure, which supplies over a fifth of global energy needs. However, those fears have yet to materialize, offering markets some reassurance that the escalation will not trigger a major shock that could reignite concerns over global economic stability. This narrative of containment has stripped gold of the geopolitical risk premium it previously enjoyed. According to the New York Times , some experts believe Iran is unlikely to disrupt energy flows in the region as long as its own export facilities remain intact. In another word, any Iranian attempt to destabilize energy markets may invite retaliatory strikes on its own vital oil infrastructure—further damaging its already fragile economy. Axios quoted Brookings Institution foreign policy director Suzanne Maloney describing Iran’s parliamentary call to shut the Strait of Hormuz as symbolic, arguing that the Islamic Republic is unlikely to risk its economy or the rapprochements with Gulf neighbors. That said, the Middle East’s unpredictable trajectory, with near-daily escalations, continues to unsettle markets and sustain elevated risk appetite, which could ultimately benefit gold. In a New York Times opinion piece , Nicholas Kristof outlined three key risks that could stem from the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities: the nature of Iran’s response, whether the strike set back or accelerated Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and whether this is a step toward a broader war. Iran’s response could range from symbolic gestures to reckless escalation, potentially dragging the U.S. deeper into direct involvement. According to the Wall Street Journal , Tehran may choose to strike at evacuated U.S. bases in the region, as it did in response to the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, when Iran targeted the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq in what was described as a calculated, non-escalatory response. Alternatively, Iran could intensify missile strikes on Israel—viewed by some as Washington’s largest forward base—thus keeping the conflict somewhat localized for now. Still, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may ultimately reject a ceasefire, unlike what his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did in the late 1980s to preserve the Islamic Republic. This keeps the door open to new and unpredictable rounds of conflict, according to The Times . On the nuclear front, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius warned in an opinion piece that Iran could pursue a crude radioactive “dirty bomb” using highly enriched near weapons-grade enriched uranium. Such a scenario would also be dangerously uncertain. In my opinion, it is unlikely that the U.S. or Israel would simply stand down after such a development, possibly setting the stage for the most extreme and dangerous escalation yet. This could align with the protracted duration of the war and reports that Israel’s defensive missile stockpiles are running low, which raising the stakes. Israel may feel compelled to force Iran into surrender, as the U.S. did with Japan, though unlike Japan, Iran could be a nuclear state. Given Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political stance, a settlement that leaves Iran’s nuclear or ballistic program intact is unlikely to be accepted. Iran, for its part, firmly rejects dismantling its programs, adding to the likelihood of prolonged conflict and worst-case scenario. Despite the market’s muted reaction to the U.S. strike, the surrounding risks remain significant and unresolved. As long as their realization remains uncertain, volatility in gold and oil prices may persist until the conflict is either resolved or definitively contained. Samer Hasn
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa
Can Geopolitics Redefine Market Risk?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which analysts widely dub the "fear gauge," currently commands significant attention in global financial markets. Its recent surge reflects profound uncertainty, particularly from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the VIX quantifies market expectations for future volatility, its current elevation signals more than mere sentiment. It represents a sophisticated repricing of systemic risk, capturing the implied probability of significant market dislocations. Investors find it an indispensable tool for navigating turbulent periods. The dramatic escalation of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict into a confrontation, involving the United States, directly fuels this heightened volatility. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, prompted swift Iranian retaliation. Subsequently, on June 22, the U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," conducting precision strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately declared diplomacy over, holding the U.S. responsible for "dangerous consequences" and vowing further "punishment operations," including a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This direct U.S. military intervention, particularly targeting nuclear facilities with specialized munitions, fundamentally alters the conflict's risk profile. It moves beyond proxy warfare into a confrontation with potentially existential implications for Iran. The explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil supplies, creates immense uncertainty for energy markets and the broader global economy. While historical VIX spikes from geopolitical events often prove transient, the current situation's unique characteristics introduce a higher degree of systemic risk and unpredictability. The Cboe VVIX Index, measuring the VIX's expected volatility, has also risen to the higher end of its range, signaling deep market uncertainty about the future trajectory of risk itself. The current environment necessitates a shift from static portfolio management to a dynamic, adaptive approach. Investors must re-evaluate portfolio construction, considering long exposure to volatility through VIX instruments as a hedging mechanism, and increasing allocations to traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The elevated VVIX implies that even the predictability of market volatility is compromised, demanding a multi-layered risk management strategy. This specific confluence of events might signify a departure from historical patterns of short-lived geopolitical market impacts, suggesting geopolitical risk could become a more ingrained and persistent factor in asset pricing. Vigilance and agile strategies are paramount for navigating this unpredictable landscape.
CBOE:VIXLong
by UDIS_View
Beyond the Headlines - Gold Outlook June 16-20, 2025Beyond the Headlines: Gold's Ascent Amidst Global Shifts & Key Technicals 🌐🚀 Everything about the last week can be found here: OANDA:XAUUSD 💰📈 We all know what's going on, I believe. Israel struck Iran 💥, and this conflict will likely take a bit before things cool down. 🥶 --- ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 ### Israel / Iran Since June 12, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Esfahan – over 128 killed, Iran claims. 🇮🇷 retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv, killing at least 10. 🚀 **Outlook:** 🔥 Tensions are spiraling. Without urgent mediation, full-scale regional war remains a real risk. 💣 ### India / Pakistan Since the May ceasefire, few clashes have occurred. However, both navies increased readiness, signaling potential escalation at sea. 🚢 **Outlook:** ⚖️ Peace is fragile. A strategic dialogue is key to avoiding a renewed border or maritime conflict. 🙏 ### Gaza Conflict Between June 7–15, Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians, including 8 near an aid center in Rafah. Over 55,000 total deaths, and famine is looming. 💔 **Outlook:** 🆘 Gaza remains a humanitarian catastrophe. Global pressure for access and a ceasefire must intensify. 🕊️ ### Russia / Ukraine June 13–15: Russia returned the bodies of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers in a rare POW swap gesture. 🤝 Fighting remains intense in Sumy and Toretsk; Russia hit a major oil refinery. 🏭 **Outlook:** 🕊️ While symbolic moves continue, no peace is in sight – battlefield outcomes will shape diplomacy. ⚔️ ### U.S. - China Trade War The U.S. hiked tariffs to 55% on key Chinese goods. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 responded with 10% on U.S. imports. Talks yielded a partial truce, but military-use rare earths remain unresolved. 💻 **Outlook:** 🔧 Tech remains the battleground. Without progress on critical materials, the trade war may deepen. 📉 ### Global Trade War The OECD revised global growth downward due to rising tariffs from the U.S. targeting 🇨🇳, 🇲🇽, 🇨🇦. Global trade volume is expected to shrink by 0.2–1.5%. 📉 **Outlook:** ⛓️ Supply chain disruption is spreading. Global trade will stay under pressure without coordinated policy. 🌍➡️🌍 ### Trump vs. Powell Trump labeled Powell a "numbskull" for not cutting rates, suggesting he might "force something" if re-elected. 🗳️ The Fed maintains policy independence ahead of a critical June decision. 🏛️ **Outlook:** ⚔️ Political pressure on the Fed is mounting. Expect more friction as the election cycle heats up. 🔥 ### U.S. Inflation CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May (from 2.3%); Core CPI held steady at 2.8%. Monthly growth was modest at 0.1%. Key rises were seen in healthcare and vehicle prices. 🚗🏥 **Outlook:** Inflation is stable but sticky. 🚦 The Fed will likely hold rates steady until clearer disinflation signals appear. 📊 --- ## Technical View 📐📈 ### Market Structure: Gold shows a clear **bullish market structure** with higher highs and higher lows. ⬆️ Recent price action suggests we're in a strong uptrend with institutional buying pressure. 🏦 ### Key Levels: * The chart shows a significant low around the **$3,245 area** (marked as "Low") which could act as a key institutional support level. 💪 * The current high near **$3,446** represents a potential institutional resistance zone. 🛑 * Look for potential **order blocks** around the **$3,380-$3,400 range** where price consolidated before the recent breakout. 🧱 ### Fair Value Gaps (FVG): There appear to be several gaps in the price action during volatile moves, particularly during strong rally phases. These could act as future support/resistance areas. 📉📈 ### Gann Analysis: The price movement shows strong adherence to Gann principles: * The rally from the low follows a steep angle, suggesting strong momentum. 🚀 * Key Gann angles would place support around the **$3,300-$3,320 zone**. 📐 * The current price near **$3,436** is testing natural resistance levels based on Gann square calculations. 📏 ### Fibonacci Levels: From the significant swing low to the current high: * 23.6% retracement: ~$3,395 📉 * 38.2% retracement: ~$3,370 📉 * 50% retracement: ~$3,345 📉 * 61.8% retracement: ~$3,320 📉 The golden ratio levels suggest key support on any pullback would be around the **$3,370-$3,345 zone**. ✨ ### Institutional Levels: * **Weekly/Monthly Levels:** The **$3,400** and **$3,450** areas appear to be significant institutional levels based on round numbers and previous price action. 🏦💰 * **Smart Money:** The accumulation pattern before the breakout suggests institutional participation. 🧠💡 ### Cycle Timing: Based on the timeframe (appears to be 30-minute bars from May 26-June 15): * We're seeing approximately **3-week cycles** in the major moves. 🗓️ * The current rally phase appears to be in its mature stage. 🌳 * The next potential cycle turn could be approaching, suggesting caution for new longs at current levels. ⚠️ --- ### Trading Considerations: * Watch for rejection at current levels near **$3,446**. 📉 * Key support confluence around **$3,370-$3,345** for potential re-entry. 🎯 * Volume and momentum divergences would be critical for timing any reversal. 📊🔄 Other indicators tend to show bullish scenario enhancements. 🚀 Gold has formed a ** Standard Bullish Flag pattern ** over a time from early April till today. 🚩🐂 Also, the structure of a ** reverse Head & Shoulders ** is existing and has broken the neckline! 🔄🗣️ Another indicator is an existing "** Ascending Bull Flag **." ⬆️🚩 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2
Brent Crude Oil's Defining Moments: Analyzing the Top 5 MovesThe oil market has experienced unprecedented volatility over the past two years, with five pivotal moments generating the most significant price movements in Brent crude. The Top 5 Market Movers: 1. June 13, 2025 (+7.02%): Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities triggered the largest single-day surge to $74.23/barrel, demonstrating how geopolitical events can instantly drive supply disruption fears. 2. April 8, 2025 (-15.67% over 5 days): Trump's tariff escalation and US-China trade war intensification caused the most severe multi-day decline, ending at $62.82/barrel as traders priced in global economic slowdown. 3. October 7, 2024 (+12.76% over 5 days): Escalating Israel-Iran tensions drove a significant rally to $80.93/barrel as markets built in geopolitical risk premiums ahead of expected retaliatory strikes. 4. September 3, 2024 (-6.41%): Libya's oil dispute resolution combined with weak global demand outlook caused a sharp drop to $73.75/barrel, showing how supply resolutions can trigger selloffs. 5. October 6, 2023 (-11% weekly crash): The end of driving season combined with demand concerns and interest rate fears triggered the biggest weekly decline since March 2023, with Brent falling to $84.07/barrel as gasoline demand hit yearly lows. Current Fundamental Landscape and Path Forward The EIA forecasts Brent averaging $66/barrel in 2025 and $59/barrel in 2026, below recent levels due to trade uncertainties and slower growth. Three key factors will drive future prices: US-China trade resolution, Middle East geopolitical risks, and OPEC+'s production strategy. Recent volatility shows that while fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain important, geopolitical events, trade policies, and seasonal demand patterns can generate dramatic price swings that overwhelm traditional market forces.
TVC:UKOIL
by Jacques1000
Will Middle East Flames Ignite Winter Gas Prices?The global natural gas market is currently navigating a period of profound volatility, with prices surging and defying typical seasonal trends. This significant upward movement is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with the looming potential for direct US military intervention. This complex interplay of factors is fundamentally reshaping perceptions of global energy supply and influencing investor sentiment, pushing natural gas prices towards critical psychological and technical thresholds. Direct military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, including the world's largest gas field, the South Pars, have introduced a tangible threat to supply at the source. This is compounded by the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits. Despite Iran possessing the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and being the third-largest producer, international sanctions and high domestic consumption severely limit its export capabilities, making its existing, albeit modest, export volumes disproportionately sensitive to disruption. Europe, having strategically pivoted to LNG imports following the reduction of Russian pipeline gas, finds its energy security increasingly tied to the stability of Middle Eastern supply routes. A prolonged conflict, especially one extending into the crucial winter months, would necessitate substantial LNG volumes to meet storage targets, intensifying competition and potentially driving European gas prices higher. This environment of heightened risk and volatility also attracts speculative trading, which can amplify price movements beyond fundamental supply-demand dynamics, embedding a significant geopolitical risk premium into current market valuations. This confluence of direct infrastructure threats, critical chokepoint risks, and Europe's structural reliance on global LNG flows creates a highly sensitive market. The trajectory of natural gas prices remains inextricably linked to geopolitical developments, with potential for further substantial increases in an escalation scenario, or sharp reversals should de-escalation occur. Navigating this landscape requires a keen understanding of both energy fundamentals and the intricate, often unpredictable, currents of international relations.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by UDIS_View
Geopolitical Oil Shocks May Be Short-Lived and Prices May Fall Crude oil prices are climbing by over 1% today across both Brent and West Texas Intermediate, approaching their highest levels since January. These gains are driven by rising concerns over the fallout from a potential escalation in the Israel–Iran war, especially with the prospect of direct U.S. military involvement that could widen the conflict and threaten oil supplies from the Middle East. Talks are intensifying around a possible U.S. strategic bomber strike on Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility. Such a move would mark a dangerous new phase of escalation, raising the risk of supply disruptions from key oil-exporting countries via the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to several analysts and opinion columnists . Iran’s major oil export facilities may also be pulled into the conflict sooner rather than later. Any attack on these energy assets could trigger a price shock that sends oil soaring toward $130 per barrel, according to estimates from JPMorgan . The first step toward this new phase of escalation may not be far off, as former President Trump appears unshaken by potential consequences—the include regional instability to possible retaliatory attacks on U.S. and allied interests abroad. According to Axios , he is doubtful about the effectiveness of the bunker-busting bombs intended for a Fordow strike. Even without such a strike, a prolonged conflict with little hope for a diplomatic resolution would likely increase the vulnerability of global oil flows, as reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. However, such disruptions are expected to remain short-term, in my opinion. In the longer run, this war is unlikely to be sustainable in its current form. Israel is reportedly facing a dwindling supply of interceptor missiles, with reserves potentially lasting just 12 more days at the current rate of Iranian rocket fire, according to experts cited by The Washington Post . The Journal also quoted a U.S. official who mentioned a decline in Israel’s supply of Arrow missiles used to intercept ballistic threats. In my view, Israel will likely avoid reaching such a tipping point unless it achieves a decisive turning point in the conflict, whether through sidelining U.S. involvement or toppling Iran’s regime. If neither is achieved, Israel may resort to targeting Iran’s oil and gas export infrastructure to enforce a surrender. This action that could send oil prices into shock in the coming days. A drawn-out war in its current form is unsustainable for either side. Still, a diplomatic solution is not entirely off the table. A senior Iranian foreign ministry official told the New York Times that Tehran may accept Trump’s offer to meet soon for a potential ceasefire discussion. Such developments could reduce the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil and potentially push U.S. crude back below $70 per barrel. In any case, I believe any shock to oil prices would likely be temporary, as major producers are generally capable of offsetting short-term supply disruptions unless we enter into extreme scenarios, as noted by the Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board earlier this week. On another front, oil prices are also under increasing pressure from concerns around prolonged monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday disappointed markets, striking a more hawkish and cautious tone than before on interest rate cuts. Policymakers have grown increasingly wary of inflation risks, particularly with the renewed trade war and rising geopolitical tensions, which could potentially push inflation above 3 percent again. Such extended tightening could weigh further on economic growth or even trigger a recession, dragging down oil demand and keeping prices on a downward trajectory. Monetary tightening risks also overlap with persistent negative signals from China. Despite improvements in retail sales and declining unemployment, both industrial production and fixed-asset investment slowed unexpectedly in May. Goldman Sachs also expects continued weakness in China’s housing market, which could remain at just a quarter of its 2017 peak level for years to come. Should trade negotiations between the U.S. and China fail, both economies and oil prices could face further downward pressure. Samer Hasn
NYMEX:CL1!
by SamerHa
Gold Loses Shine Amid Hopes the Middle East War Remains Under Co Gold is showing little movement today, holding near $2,386 per ounce after a drop of over 1.4% yesterday. This weak performance comes as market fears over the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict have eased. Investors are hopeful that energy supplies flowing from the region to the rest of the world will not face major disruption. Scenarios that could shock oil prices, according to Axios , include Israel striking Iran’s key export facilities, Iran targeting production sites in the region, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of these developments have occurred so far, which has kept fears of renewed inflation and persistently high interest rates in check. The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal believes that global oil production capacity can absorb supply disruptions unless they are catastrophic, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the conflict does not severely disrupt energy supplies, markets may downplay its impact. This limits the geopolitical risk premium that would otherwise support further gains in gold prices. However, if diplomacy fails to contain the conflict soon, Iran may choose to escalate it by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by The Journal . This concern could prompt the US and Gulf states to intensify diplomatic efforts or even pull the US directly into the conflict. Beyond the military situation, markets are watching developments in the US-China trade dispute, where talks have yet to make meaningful progress. The lack of a breakthrough could push the US to impose restrictions on semiconductor exports and manufacturing equipment, threatening billions in American corporate sales, according to The Journal . Such moves might trigger further escalation by China, which holds leverage through its dominance in rare earth metals. Renewed tensions could disrupt supply chains and drive inflation even higher. Although recent inflation data do not suggest a sudden surge in prices, experts told The New York Times that the effects of tariffs and supply chain disruption may take months or even over a year to feed through to consumer prices. This is partly because sellers can rely on pre-tariff stockpiles and offer discounts for a period. Failure to resolve these issues could see inflation rebound, keeping interest rates high at levels that the economy may not be able to bear. The chief economics commentator at The Journal wrote last week that the Federal Reserve should shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting the economy through rate cuts, given signs of labor market weakness. Persistently high rates or further increases, along with rising bond yields, may not weigh on gold. On the contrary, they could support demand for the safe-haven asset as worries about slowing growth and recession deepen. Uncertainty in the bond market remains high compared to levels before the Ukraine war in 2022, as shown by the ICE BofAML TVC:MOVE index, which measures fear in the US Treasury bond market. This could limit the downward pressure of rising yields on gold prices. Markets are awaiting tomorrow’s Fed decision on interest rates, with attention focused on Jerome Powell’s remarks after the announcement. A stronger Fed stance on keeping rates elevated for longer might temporarily pressure gold. However, renewed concerns about economic growth could quickly restore demand for the yellow metal. Data from China also continue to fuel economic worries. Recent figures show industrial production and fixed-asset investment growth slowing more than expected, which could bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Samer Hasn
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by SamerHa