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Geopolitics

SPX 500 Index, Daily Chart Analysis July 25Technical Analysis and Outlook The S&P500 index closed higher and by doing so, obsoleted the relatively weak Key Res 3016 . The higher-range closure sets the stage for a steady to higher advancement towards the Inner Index Rally 3040 , and ultimately to the Outer Index Rally 3125 (The sixth phase). Currently, there are no significant resistance levels: the downside there is established Mean Sup 2976 , and distance Key Sup marked at 2914 .
TVC:SPX
by TradingSig
2
Why the US Dollar will be going higher! Alert!So we are approaching the 31st of July, a day the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates. The market has already priced in a 25 basis point cut. In this post I want to discuss why the US Dollar will remain buoyed, and likely break out higher, even though the Fed cuts rates. Also why a stronger dollar exacerbates all the problems in the world. If you follow my blog ( unchartedfx.blog) and/or social media ( www.instagram.com) I regularly post stories regarding macroeconomics and geopolitics. I believe we are heading towards not only an economic crisis (central banks running out of tools, new mandate is to keep assets propped, and then this mandate will turn into the BUYER of last resort), but also a social and political crisis. More books will be written about the next few years than any other time in human history. So why will the US Dollar go higher? And when I mean higher, the break above 98 validates this idea. A break below the 94-95 zone would make me reconsider my theory. 1)Reserve Currency and Petro Dollar. It is more about the reserve currency rather than the Petro Dollar, but we should speak about the geopolitical possibilities. When things in the world start to go crazy, people will run into the US Dollar. This doesn’t mean Gold will fall…it is possible to see BOTH Gold and the US Dollar rise and I argue we will see this. Remember, Gold goes up when confidence is running out in government, banks and policies. It is a confidence crisis asset. With the Fed now beginning a rate cut cycle, it is likely we may go back to QE…which was supposed to be a one time, desperate policy, but many are realizing that this will now be the norm. However, many still see Gold as this useless, non yielding asset. These people will naturally run into the US Dollar. America also has the exorbitant privilege for being the reserve currency. Meaning there is always an artificial demand for US Dollars, and the Fed can keep printing as many dollars as they want without caring about debts and deficits…unless Dollar demand takes a hit or the US loses reserve status. The Fed is the central bank of central banks and can bail out others (Canada during 2008 etc). This is where the Petro dollar comes into play. Currently Iran is the threat because the Iranians take any currency besides the US Dollar for their oil. Countries like Turkey and India love this because their currency priced in US Dollars has gotten decimated. European nations, Japan and South Korea have followed suit, but have reluctantly dropped due to US demands. Turkey and India really cannot afford too. Russia and China are trying to attack this Dollar demand, and Iran is the key for them. Venezuela is also, but her oil production needs to come back to par, and believe me, Maduro will remain President backed by the Russians and the Chinese solely because he will announce Venezuela will NOT take US Dollars for their oil. This is part of Russia and China’s plan. In a way, this is why war with Iran is more than likely to happen. It is the way the Americans will protect their US Dollar demand and the role as reserve currency. They will force all nations to use the Dollar for energy. In this way, the US army and other western armies are the armed branch of the Federal Reserve. 2)The US looks better than other western nations. This is thanks to tax cuts implemented by President Trump…and other western nations are being burdened by large tax rates as governments need to tax more in order to spend more. Partly why they want inflation. More taxes in terms of more money through property tax and sales tax etc. All other western nations will also be cutting interest rates. Australia has already cut twice this year, taking them down to 1.00%. Other nations will also follow along. In this environment, what would you rather hold? Would you still want to hold the Euro or the Canadian Dollar? I don’t think so. If you factor in that all western nations will be cutting rates, the US still looks the best. Martin Armstrong calls this the “prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters” situation. That the US Dollar is the prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters (other western currencies). 3) US Treasury Demand Now this is the most important reason in my opinion. For fixed income investors, US treasuries still provide the best safe yield for bonds. Fixed Income products are huge for pension funds. In fact US Social Security is 100% composed of government bonds! There is about 12 Trillion Dollars worth of negative yielding debt in the world right now! Put yourself in the shoes of a German fixed income manager. Would you buy European or German debt yielding very low, even zero to negative! Or would you rather buy US Treasuries yielding a decent amount compared to other western counterparts? I have argued in the past that the rise in the US Dollar is because of European money coming over (having to buy the US Dollar in order to purchase US Treasuries or even US stocks). This will continue to increase and it will not just be European fixed income managers doing this. In fact, US Treasuries is the best way for foreign funds to obtain US Dollars. Very quickly, this is why the Fed MUST cut rates next week, and will likely cut many more times ahead. 1) The bond market. The short end of the yield curve has to be brought down, and the Fed Funds rate yields more than the ten year! Meaning banks take a negative carry. 2) Real economy is not actually improving, and we are either already in a recession (remember it is a lagging indicator...and PMI coming negative), or we are heading towards a recession. The Fed wants to act quickly. 3) To help service US government debt as well as the consumers. So much bad debt out there, and the consumer needs to borrow more to live. 4) The Fed has to relieve the pressure mostly from emerging markets. EM dollar denominated debt gets more expensive as the dollar gets stronger, which leads to more problems, and also plays a factor for those nations to buy oil from Iran bypassing the US Dollar. 5) Also Jerome Powell and the Fed have talked themselves into a corner. Stock markets only care about cheap money. This is why they are up. When rates go down, the stock market will be the only place to go for yield. The Fed now needs to deliver...a 25 basis point cut may not be enough. So the Fed will be cutting but rate cuts will not prevent the Dollar from rising. This means the Fed may have to "kill" the dollar to save the world. We are likely to see some new type of Bretton-Woods type conference to sort this all out. By the way: If I was a Russian or Chinese strategist, I would be telling dark pools and offshore funds to buy the dollar. Keep it propped up even with bad data and rate cuts. This way more nations will be pressured to drop the Dollar to buy Iranian Oil (ally of Russia and China and key to their geopolitical ambitions). Even Saudi Arabia and other gulf states may drop the dollar just to ensure they do not lose their market share (and the Russians would guarantee the Saudi's military protection). Not to mention the pressure it would put on the Fed and America. How can the Russians and Chinese do this because the dollar going up means the Ruble and Yuan would be going down you ask? Gold. Gold priced in Rubles and Yuan will go up and both Russia and China own large reserves and continue to buy more. This is how Russia survived US sanctions. Even though the Ruble got decimated, Gold priced in Rubles went up allowing the Russian Central Bank to operate with not much damage. Gold is also a way for these Eastern nations to bypass the Dollar. Gold will be used to settle payments. You sell Oil to China, but don't want to hold Yuan reserves? China converts the Yuan to Gold, you take the Gold, then convert it back to your currency. No US Dollar involved.
TVC:DXYLong
by Uncharted-FX
4
EURUSD - Stay Cautious, Big moves ahead!Okay! So as predicted it has been a pretty wild week however the market seems to have respected the uptrend support indicating that investors are still leaning to the conclusion that US interest rates will be cut. With a new week beginning my recommendation is to again REMAIN CAUTIOUS as more data will be released this week and we will likely see a break of either the lower support trend line or the 1.1284 resistance level. If you absolutely MUST trade this week I would advise waiting for a close above or below these levels with volume, be careful of false breaks and keep your stops tight! Put simply: If economic data indicates the US economy is doing well, the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut interest rates and this particular market is likely to selloff. Conversely if data indicates poor economic performance, an interest rate increase becomes more likely and we will see a rally. See my previous idea below:
by EquityShuffle
TRUMP SAYS NO TO BITCOIN!Mr Trump has strongly disapproved of Bitcoin. The markets couldn't care less. People are holding on to their Bitcoin in a zone of consolidation on the daily time frame. The consolidation pattern is safe down to around 9500. Bitcoin reached 10 times the recent high price of gold at one stage. I look at possibilities positive and negative for the future. For a comparison of Gold v Bitcoin see here . Declarations & Disclaimers: I have not engaged in contentious political discourse. I have simply reported the whole truth of Mr Trump's opinions. I have shown that the zone of consolidation disregards Mr Trumps views. Trump's opinions are relevant to traders as his words have potential to influence markets of various kinds. No liabilities accepted for your losses if you trade bitcoin based on anything said or perceived to be implied by this post.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Captain_Walker
5
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis June 21Technical Analysis and Outlook It seems like we have a currency war. Euro Dollar sank after dovish Super Mario - Draghi comment and surged after dovish Fed chair Powell remarks. The short-term surge of the Euro Dollar trend sentiment remains semi-bullish and current rebound is producing push into Outer Currency Rally $1.1376 . The relatively weak Mean Res $1.3333 will be a showdown of this fake push towards higher prices, with aged Key Res $1.1410 looming above. On the downside, there is a Mean Res $1.1193 a distance away, while the significant Key Res $1.1330 is sitting below.
by TradingSig
Possible Double Bottom Forming in USOILDespite ongoing concerns about oversupply and threats to demand, crude has some upward catalysts after a long bear run. Global contracts are up in the month of June, according to a report yesterday, and China's oil appetite is increasing. Also, Iran attacked a couple oil tankers and the US government appears determined to go to war in order to bolster the president's re-election prospects. These factors *could* catalyze an upward breakout, depending how the geopolitical situation shakes out. I suspect the $54.40-54.80 resistance level will act as a magnet in coming weeks, though whether we actually push through that level depends on the news. Look for upward triangle breakout and breach of $52.96 resistance as signs that we'll head north to test the $54.40-54.80 resistance zone.
TVC:USOILLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Second TP @1,320 for GOLD Good Morning, Over a week ago, I posted a long position on Gold @,1275, showing a nine month trend and decided to take the risk. Half positions were to be closed @1,300 which occurred on Friday, May 31st 2019. Here is an update on where to close the remaining positions. In this chart, the Fib. retracement of 78.60% and the wave movement of the flag pole both indicate a target @ 1,320 and I shall be satisfied with all my profits. Never be greedy!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Nixxflixx
US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together. The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north. Mueller's hit list so far has been : 1. PAUL MANAFORT 2. RICK GATES 3. MICHAEL COHEN 4. MICHAEL FLYNN 5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS 6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN 7. RICHARD PINEDO (Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.) Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors. Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well. We have other variables to consider : 1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up. 2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi. 3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term. 4. Flattening or inverted yield curves 5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China. 6. Potential Brexit shock waves. 7. Germany struggling against recession. 8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble. 9. US and Global debt totally out of control. 10 etc. .. and much more. Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
2
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis March 7Technical Analysis and Outlook The downtrend is in progress, as the currency has broken out of the tight trading zone and violating Mean Sup 1.1330 in the process. However, a significant resistance stands at Mean Res 1.1390 . To the downside, we have newly created weak Mean Sup 1.1306 along with Mean Sup 1.1261 and Key Sup 1.1218 . Other significant downside levels are flagged on the chart. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
by TradingSig
STERLING: Not in a good placeIf you believe big media news headlines you'd be thinking that GBP is on some mega path of recovery. It ain't. The evidence is that GBP is in serious trouble as seen by most of the big daily trends. Unless something miraculous happens big trends like these especially GBPUSD create further probabilities for the south. But on the geopolitical-economic circuit, many in Britain are actually preparing for a 'Hard Brexit'. Should that materialise there is not only gonna be further big trouble for the pound, but for Forex and Stock Markets around the world. Stay tuned folks! Get your popcorn ready. :)
Short
by Captain_Walker
US Dollar under potential threat as de-dollarization sets in.In this screencast, I'm looking ahead for potential moves, possibly south in the US-Dollar. This is about preparedness. In the video I explore emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that are taking place. The US-Dollar strength has big influence at this time on: 1. Commodities 2. Metals - especially Gold and Silver 3. Oil 4. Stock markets in the US and elsewhere. 5. US-Dollar currency pairs. - and more. This thing is big! There is reliable information about a silent forex war happening largely unseen as China, Russia and Japan are giving up US debt, and moving into Gold and Crytocurrencies. I don't do predictions, so I'm unable to say what this would mean for the future. Do not take my word for it - check out this stuff on reliable information channels (unable to give further information here - but PM me if you wish).
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by Captain_Walker
Brace! Avoid being flushed out in the 'Economic Colonic'. In this screencast I show how I attack the US30. It's very different to what you see 'out there'. This is about a robust and real trend-following methodology. And not - I'm not selling anything! WYSIWYG. Totally for free! Everybody deserves a chance. Reality has come home to the markets - globally. There is a mega trade war on at the moment and it has been for several weeks. The impatient and greedy will lose their money to those who are patient and strategic.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
What's Geopolitics and Ponzi schemes got to do with you?I focus more on historical factors in brief overview in the video. There is an emerging perception that both the EURO and the US Dollar a Ponzi schemes of sorts. How can the US Dollar which is backed by 'thin air' have come to dominate the world. What is a Ponzi scheme? Are there similar elements in both the EURO and the USD? Look and you may see. Geopolitics affects these two. But I'm not really going into the 'fundamental analysis' of this at any deep level, at all. Demand for a currency is influenced by international trade which then is connected to stock markets. I'm not able to dig deeply into the complex interactive connections here. To be clear, I separate Geopolitics from 'Politricks' which I blogged about before. I'm saying that we need to be aware of Geopolitics in the higher time frames like 1D charts. That's not just about currencies - it's also about stock markets. Stuff that may be of interest: A Ponzi Scheme Special Interview Noam Chomsky 2018 A deeper understanding of money from a global pespective - and potential complications, by Yanis Varoufakis The Monetary System Explained - how the Federal Reserve works (or not). Century of Enslavement: The History of The Federal Reserve
Education
by Captain_Walker
EURCAD Weekly forecast. fundamental and technical overviewThe price i currently at the 0.886 Fibonacci level (drawn from (0) to 1.54729 Where i could see the price be in a range zone from 1.55713 to 1.53964 which is also between 0.886 and 1.13 on fibonacci. The price have been in a strong uptrend, where a trend channel also have formed on the daily chart. The price made a new high before starting to decrease, and can be an indicator of further downside so come. the price performed a Bump and run formation, (see my other chart from Mar 18) Long trade levels will be 1.52110 which is also the support line in the daily trend channel and 1.386 on fibonacci. while confer trade in the range area can be made before any breakouts. Short trade levels is the current level where a break of the 1.53964 can give further downside to the support line in the trend channel at 1.52110/1.52000 that is also a psychological level. break of this level will force a new analysis of a new short target. The price can have some struggles to make gains, as geopolitical tensions rise, and therefore rising oil prices, that can give the CAD a boost. also we have a oversold indicator on the RSI that signals a weakness in the upward momentum for further gains. There is a lot of high volatility macroeconomic data coming out the coming 2 weeks. where interest decision and removal of quantitative easing program will be watched closely by investors/traders. _____ Long trade. 1. Sold out on RSI. 2. removal of quantitative easing program in talk. 3. easing geopolitical tensions. 4. More output of oil from US 5. Support at 1.53964 that can give a new run to test the latest top. _______ Short trade. 1. Break of the range zone level 1.53964 2. Weeknes in the RSI. 3. 5 wave sequence 4. Geopolitical tensions. 5. rise in oil prices. 6. steady Interest rate decision with no talks about removal of quantitative easing programs, or postponement of the program 7. Week data Euro zone and Germany
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
technical & Political analyses for $GOLD $XAUUSDAs shown from the figure has been penetrating the falling trend under the rise of geopolitical intensity again, but on a personal level, this climb is only temporary and tend to drop the price again In general, in the figure we show the best areas to enter into a sale (I do not recommend) and buy into a sale Please note that in the meantime the mind is in the process of testing the resistance level 1281 NOTICE : This applies to $silver / $XAGUSD and the $EURUSD
TVC:GOLD
by AlaedineHa