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Geopolitics

Yen about to suffer or benefit from geopolitical uncertainty?The USDJPY is approaching a key level on the weekly chart at 110.30. However is this an opportunity to long given the obvious fact that both countries have different monetary policies ? Or given the fact that Abe's popularity is tanking as a result of the scandal may cause markets to reassess the probability of him seeing his abenomics policies to fruition remains to be seen. Read more about it. www.bloomberg.com Thus, probable scenarios moving forward a. 110.30 supported with stop below 108.00 with target at 113.40 and above (Month end flows and FOMCweek) b. 110.30 breached and weekly trendline broken but supported at 109.30 (USDOLLAR continues to tank without finding support) c. Sideways trading between levels 108.40 and 110.30 (Directionless until NFP in August )
by revelationtrading
Xau/Usd $$$ Gold - short term setupNote$ -I was hesitant to short gold mostly because of tensions with North Korea, however IMO any military escalation from now on is unlikely. Market got used to North Korea shooting wanna-be-ICBMs and missiles every now and then. -I expect gold to be losing value til next friday -US inflation data next friday might push Gold up a bit (as per labor report I expect weaker inflation), however I think it will hit top of current downtrend channel followed by further decline -Any new info regarding Trumps tax reform might confluence or diverge with this setup
FX:XAUUSD
by Chuck-Norris
Pending Breakout on CADCHF (~140 pips)Hey all, it's been a quiet couple of days as I've been closing some great trades after having already met my monthly goal. Despite that, I think it's always important to monitor the market for future ideas that may develop when we're ready to trade. CADCHF is showing some signs of being a potentially "safer" medium term idea that should come into play within the next week or two. What we have here is a clear overall descending channel on the daily, but if you look a little closer you'll see that the price is making an upward move in an ascending sub-channel of its own. If you'll look back a few weeks, there was a very similar scenario where we saw the price break out of its own channel for a very lucrative descent (on the 17th of April to be exact). The price itself seems to have it its ascending channel wall so we can expect the price to continue moving up to hit any of the outlined S&R levels before making its big break down to Target 1 which is an important Fib level. If everything goes according to plan, we can expect some consolidation and a brief reversal to give way to a further break down to Target 2 which is both a very strong daily S&R level AND a vital Fib level (from the overall structure). The Risk/Reward diagram is merely for illustrative purposes and can be moved depending on the location of the breakout (which might result in a few more pips). Setup: Entry: 0.72189 SL: 0.72398 TP: 0.71494 and 0.70753 This is merely an idea so always take the necessary precautions when trading!
Short
by Cohiba93
USDJPY safe-haven play on increased geopolitical risksChart of the day: USDJPY. Safe-haven buying kicked in heavily Tuesday, also giving a boost to other local Asian currencies. Geopolitical unrest levels have risen substantially over the last few weeks: Syria, N.Korea, Russia and this has led to a move to buy those 'safer' assets. Gold, Yen all should benefit from the uncertainty. On the Kagi chart the Yen is now back to mid 2016 numbers, breaking out of the bands, but playing on a key Fibonacci 38.2% line at just under 110, which could offer some resistance. A confirmed break here could see the price noise around 106 targeted, then to the lows just under 100. Any rebound in the shorter term has 112 and 115 in its sights.
Short
by StephenHoad
It´s The Politics. Stop Following Technical Analysis ... U.S. investors brace for mounting political risks as they decode Trump Quote: Barry James built up his $4 billion mutual fund largely by studying balance sheets, earnings and market share. In the last few weeks, however, he has realized that he must look at a new force in the market: U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump's unpredictable governing style and stated desire to renegotiate trade agreements and punish companies that seek out lower-cost forms of labor are upending the classic notion of fundamental investing, said James, who manages the James Balanced Golden Rainbow fund. Source: www.investing.com
TVC:SPXLong
by SwissView
1
Long Gold Short OilGold has a historic relevance as being a price appreciator in times of volatility, geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty. Current day presents a plethora of risks both economic and political; from emerging market credit risk through to south china sea politics. Oil, like Gold has benefitted from a fall in the USD which has lead to some price recovery, however this does not change the fundamental facts that there is still chronic oversupply. Long Gold for economic risk hedge, Short Oil for for USD revaluation protection and further oversupply issues.
AMEX:GLD
by MarcusWilliamson
1
Ah... China, and we've just begun - yellow line of despairWe won't be getting higher than the yellow line any time soon. With recent events around China's "real" numbers coming in (who knows what's real anymore?) and the issues around oil production (which are NEVER going away b/c in 15 years we won't even need oil anymore), the market is in a major, structure re-evaluation phase. Why? 1. Global unease in the old model of forever growth, which is unsustainable 2. QE x 17 or whatever and people realizing that money isn't actually worth anything (currency) 3. All the old people (baby boomers) cashing in their retirement accounts so they can buy that giant bus conversion and finally go visit their grand kids. 4. Marijuana. If you want to decrease employee productivity... give it to them.
AMEX:SPYShort
by trader_boulder