NUGTGeopolitical uncertainty tends to give way to the value of gold increasing substantially. Be ready for major swings in NUGT and play the volatility. I am in @ 10.88, will be decreasing my position @ 11.00 and be fully out up 11.50.
Geopolitics
USDJPY safe-haven play on increased geopolitical risksChart of the day: USDJPY. Safe-haven buying kicked in heavily Tuesday, also giving a boost to other local Asian currencies. Geopolitical unrest levels have risen substantially over the last few weeks: Syria, N.Korea, Russia and this has led to a move to buy those 'safer' assets. Gold, Yen all should benefit from the uncertainty.
On the Kagi chart the Yen is now back to mid 2016 numbers, breaking out of the bands, but playing on a key Fibonacci 38.2% line at just under 110, which could offer some resistance. A confirmed break here could see the price noise around 106 targeted, then to the lows just under 100. Any rebound in the shorter term has 112 and 115 in its sights.
EUR / TRY - Politics to remain on the spotlightSince late January, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has produced consistent efforts to stabilize the currency. This has produced tangible results with a upward correction although persistent political tensions. Erdogan's referendum victory is likely to be the most market-friendly option. A "No" scenario may lead to early elections and a period of political uncertainty.
It´s The Politics. Stop Following Technical Analysis ...
U.S. investors brace for mounting political risks as they decode Trump
Quote: Barry James built up his $4 billion mutual fund largely by studying balance sheets, earnings and market share. In the last few weeks, however, he has realized that he must look at a new force in the market: U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump's unpredictable governing style and stated desire to renegotiate trade agreements and punish companies that seek out lower-cost forms of labor are upending the classic notion of fundamental investing, said James, who manages the James Balanced Golden Rainbow fund.
Source: www.investing.com
Long Gold Short OilGold has a historic relevance as being a price appreciator in times of volatility, geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty.
Current day presents a plethora of risks both economic and political; from emerging market credit risk through to south china sea politics.
Oil, like Gold has benefitted from a fall in the USD which has lead to some price recovery, however this does not change the fundamental facts that there is still chronic oversupply.
Long Gold for economic risk hedge, Short Oil for for USD revaluation protection and further oversupply issues.
Ah... China, and we've just begun - yellow line of despairWe won't be getting higher than the yellow line any time soon.
With recent events around China's "real" numbers coming in (who knows what's real anymore?) and the issues around oil production (which are NEVER going away b/c in 15 years we won't even need oil anymore), the market is in a major, structure re-evaluation phase. Why?
1. Global unease in the old model of forever growth, which is unsustainable
2. QE x 17 or whatever and people realizing that money isn't actually worth anything (currency)
3. All the old people (baby boomers) cashing in their retirement accounts so they can buy that giant bus conversion and finally go visit their grand kids.
4. Marijuana. If you want to decrease employee productivity... give it to them.
