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Geopolitics

CVX drops and then starts to recover LONGCVX today dropped suddenly for unclear reasons. The possibility of a Israeli - Hamas War cease-fire may have led to expectations that oil prices would fall as the shipping quagmire in the Red Sea might stabilize. Later in the day OPEC+ announced a raised target of $ 1.00 per barrel higher which on balance seems to be an offset maneuver. CVS in the drop lost 2% printed a bear flag in about 90 minutes. i will use this opportunity to buy some all options for September after the height of the summer driving seasons to add to my positions in the futures ETF USO and OXY.
NYSE:CVXLong
by AwesomeAvani
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: the current week's trading, the Eurodollar has demonstrated remarkable resilience and a keen ability to withstand significant pressure. After initially facing a considerable challenge against our Mean Resistance level at 1.084, the currency has managed to push past it briefly, indicating a bullish trend. However, the bullish run has been short-lived, as the Eurodollar has retreated to its original position, pointing to a potential bearish trend. Based on recent price action, we anticipate the currency to move towards our Mean Support level at 1.077, which could trigger a further downward slide. If this downward slide occurs, the currency could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which will be the primary target. However, this decline may happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 acting as intermediate targets. Overall, the data suggests that the Eurodollar may experience a bearish trend shortly, and traders should consider this while making their investment decisions.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout this week's trading, Bitcoin has been showing a lot of gyration, with its price moving back and forth between two key levels: our Mean Resistance level of 52500/completed Coin Rally level of 53000, and newly created support at 50600 during this period indicating that the price has found some stability. However, despite these developments, the price of Bitcoin may experience a further decline and test our Mean Support level of 49700. If this happens, it could be an opportunity for traders to buy at a lower price before the coin takes off to retest Mean Res 52500, completed Coin Rally 53000, and galop to new highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart analysis on February 9th shows how powerful the Trade Selector System is to this Trading View platform. Bitcoin has completed the second phase of the reignited rebound extension phase, also known as the "Outer Coin Rally 53000". Currently, this analysis shows the downside price action is in pivotal squeeze mode; it is expected to rebound and retest Mean Res 52500. Moreover, completing the Outer Coin Rally 53000 from this spot is imminent.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Could India continue to drive returns for Emerging Markets?India shined as one of the best performing markets globally in 2023 despite high global inflation, rising interest rates, and unstable geopolitics. The Sensex and Nifty, two widely followed benchmarks for the Indian markets, grew 19.57% and 21.11% respectively in US Dollar (USD) terms1. India’s economy displayed strong local retail demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rates and healthy foreign exchange reserves. India also enjoyed relatively healthy relations with most major economies of the world and cautiously navigated the geopolitical conflicts. As we look ahead in 2024, we remain confident that India, driven by a host of macroeconomic factors, is a long-term story and one that could last for years if not decades to come. National elections are due to be held around May 2024. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a historic third term and it is highly likely that the ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will once again win with a full majority. India benefits from Modi’s pro-business and pro-growth policies and a stable political environment further boosts prospects to realise rapid growth. We analysed the performance of BSE Sensex, one of the widely followed benchmarks of the Indian stock market, pre and post elections. On average, the Indian markets displayed positive performance, delivering over 31% returns over the year leading up to elections, combined with the year after election results. This is despite the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 drawdown negatively impacting the performance leading to 2009 elections, and after the 2019 elections respectively. We expect this trend to continue with the likely return of the incumbent government. Of course, should Modi lose, some of the recent gains might reverse. However, that seems highly unlikely, given the state of opposition, as multiple political parties, including some with completely unaligned agendas have joined hands to prevent a third Modi term. This was evident over the five recent elections in which the BJP won by huge majority in three of the largest states with a high proportion of the Lok Sabha (national election) constituencies. Other important factors that investors might want to keep an eye on during the year: 1. Rate cuts – The Federal Reserve’s pace and timing on rate cuts will impact global markets and India is no different. The quicker and higher the cuts, the more the capital expected to be diverted towards equities, and with a strong momentum from the previous year, India might be one of the top picks in the Emerging Markets. 2. Crude oil prices – The Indian economy heavily depends on the import of crude oil. The higher the crude oil prices, the more the stress on India’s foreign current accounts. Drops in crude oil could help India’s economy grow faster and allow more room for spending on growth and infrastructure. India is simultaneously also working to reduce dependency on crude oil by diversifying into ethanol. Over the last few years, ethanol production has increased manifold and there is rising pressure to increase the usage of ethanol-blended fuel to power vehicles. This could potentially save the country much needed cash and help direct it to fuel economic growth and reduce fiscal deficits. 3. China decoupling – India has emerged as one of the most credible contenders to help diversify manufacturing out of China. For example, Apple established a considerable footprint and plans to scale up operations multi-fold; significant investments and subsidies were introduced to attract semiconductor companies from Taiwan; and there are also suggestions that Tesla is looking to enter India with a USD 2 billion investment into a manufacturing facility based in the state of Gujrat. One of the most iconic policies of the current government over the last decade has been ‘Make in India’. The government will be pushing hard to attract more companies to set up manufacturing plants in India and leverage the success of ‘Make in India’ among voters. 4. Geopolitical instability – India has been relatively less impacted by geopolitical conflicts around the globe. India maintained its neutral stance and successfully managed to stand firm despite pressure from the west by importing discounted oil from Russia to ensure its energy security, while at the same time pitched itself as a closer ally to the US to counter the growing China threat. 5. Retail flows – In the recent years, India witnessed increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market. There are 80 million unique investors in the Indian stock markets that invest through the NSE.2 Moreover, the size of mutual fund AUM is around 24% currently compared to 11% a decade ago. The strong retail presence helps add stability to the Indian markets in events of global instability and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows. Conclusion We strongly believe that India is a multi-decade story, and we are in very early stages of it. India has made tremendous progress in privatising corruption and debt-ridden state-owned companies, with disinvestments fetching USD 50 billion for the government over the last 10 years, out of which close to USD 40 billion was realised from sales of minority stakes, while close to USD 10 billion was realised from strategic transactions in 10 CPSEs – with the most notable being Air India3. This has helped in making companies more accountable to investors and more accessible via the stock market. Sources 1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. 2 Source: According to recent comments from CEO of National Stock Exchange (NSE) 3 See: Disinvestment fetches over Rs 4.20 lakh cr in 10 years but target to be missed again in FY24, December 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NSE:NIFTY
by aneekaguptaWTE
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a high degree of fluctuation and volatility, revolving around our Mean Support level of 1.084. Despite the fluctuations, the currency failed to rise above our Mean Resistance level of 1.090 to sustain a meaningful rebound. Currently, the Eurodollar is in a primary downward trend, which will continue until the support level marked at Mean Support 1.076 and the Inner Currency Dip level of 1.075 are breached. Once these levels are eliminated, the currency will continue to decline towards the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, there is a possibility of an upward movement, in which case the currency might retest the Mean Support level of 1.090 once again before continuing its downward trend. It is important to note that breaching the Mean Resistance level of 1.090 is essential for a sustained dead-cat rebound. Therefore, traders should observe these levels closely and trade accordingly to make the most of the current market situation.
by TradeSelecter
Gold's Bullish Momentum: Technicals and Fundamental DriversIn today's trading session, our attention is on XAUUSD, where we're considering a buying opportunity around the 2026 zone. Technically, gold is exhibiting an uptrend but currently undergoing a correction phase, with the price nearing the support and resistance area at 2026. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, we observe bullish sentiment among investors driven by several factors. Geopolitical tensions and the prospect of further interest rate cuts by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are key drivers behind the bullish outlook on gold. Recent events, including heightened geopolitical risks, have contributed to a risk-off sentiment in financial markets, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations of lower interest rates, combined with concerns about global economic growth, have boosted the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Furthermore, structural demand from emerging market (EM) central banks and consumers remains robust, providing support to gold prices. EM central banks and consumers have demonstrated a sustained interest in acquiring gold as a hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. This structural demand, coupled with the prevailing geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary policy easing, underpins the positive outlook for gold prices. Taking these factors into account, the bullish sentiment among investors regarding gold's price trajectory aligns with the technical analysis indicating a potential buying opportunity around the 2026 zone for XAUUSD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
1
OIL: Red Sea tension could support Oil price in short term🔴 Oil jumped as the US and its allies launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, retaliating for attacks on ships in the Red Sea that have imperiled flows of fuel and goods through the vital waterway. President Joe Biden said strikes had been conducted against a number of targets used by the Iran-backed group, with US officials saying radar sites and missile launchers were hit. A tanker industry group said military forces in the region were advising ships to avoid a key chokepoint near Yemen. The Houthis said all US and UK interests are now legitimate targets. 🔴 The main upside risk for prices concerns Iran and whether it’s drawn directly into the conflict, which could threaten oil supply in a region that produces a third of the world’s crude. The war-risk premium had previously been easing amid ample output from non-OPEC+ producers and slowing demand growth. 🔴 From our point of view, geopolitical tensions could support Oil Price in the short term, and from a technical point of view, our first Target is just below $80. Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
9
AUD/CAD: Geopolitical Factors and Technical Signals at play Dear traders, Dive into the AUD/CAD realm with a blend of geopolitical insights and technical signals: Before we venture into any further downward potential, keep a close eye on the critical level around 0.8822 for potential breakthroughs. Here's the geopolitical and technical mix in our AUD/CAD analysis: Geopolitical Considerations: Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision sparks intrigue. The balance of power in this market may shift, reflecting the delicate dance of global influences. Canada's economy, tethered to oil prices, could witness changes spurred by escalating tensions in the Middle East. A surge in oil prices may bolster the CAD. Conversely, any disturbance in the Persian Gulf, a vital oil source for China, could ripple through Australia's economy, intertwined with China's fate. Geopolitical events, like the Hamas-Israel conflict, may reverberate, potentially impacting China, Taiwan, and, subsequently, the AUD. Technical Signals: The battleground of charts and indicators beckons. Before anticipating major moves, consider the technical landscape. The Bank of Canada's decision could sway the market sentiment, making the 0.8822 level a pivotal point. A breach could signal a shift in the technical dynamics. This amalgamation of geopolitical considerations and technical intricacies sets the stage for an engaging AUD/CAD landscape. Stay tuned, adapt to unfolding events, and trade with prudence! Best regards.
Short
by AliSignals
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.⁠ ⁠ “IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council. ⁠ ⁠ Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.⁠
ECONOMICS:RUGRES
by Mr_J__fx
The ETF AftermathIt has been 1 year almost to the day since my last publication and what a 12 months it has been. I previously laid out the case for a pending future recession but not before we saw massive regular bullish divergence play out on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin. Since then we've seen a 187% move in BTC, a 25% move in the S&P 500 and every commentator, pundit and analyst confident that a recession has been avoided and a soft landing inevitable. I'm here now telling you that I believe it to be no coincidence that the previous fundamental legacy events of which bitcoin has experienced in its past, once in Dec 2017 and the other in April 2021 has resulted in massive price corrections of 83 and 53% respectively within days of the CME and IPO announcements. Albeit the likelihood of such massive corrections are lesser given where we are in the macro cycle I do believe a sizable correction will occur days following this announcement. What is of significant interest on the chart is the previous macro fibonacci extensions of the precious 2 cycles. That being a confluent correction at the 0.5 fib level and seeing a 40% and 72% correction there after. A 0.5 extension in this current cycle would suggest a monthly wick above $48500 followed by again a sizable correction. To pontificate as to the extent of this correction I pose the following possibilities. -A 30% drawdown to the 200 SMA, a support level which has served Bitcoin well historically -A 40% drawdown to the 6 and a half year support line of macro lows. -Or an unthinkable 70% correction somewhere around the previous bear market low, 2017 bull market high and the resistance held in July 2019 and Aug 2020. For this to take place we need to consider some very worst case scenarios and evaluate the current macro/geopolitical landscape. -Escalation of war in Russian Ukraine. -Escalation of war in Israel Palestine. -Military development of China's desire to remove Taiwan's international independence. -The largest inversion of the 10 year 2 year yield curve in 40 years. -The largest contraction of US M2 money supply since the great depression. -A continuation of what is already a 50% crash in China's real estate market. -A UK real estate crisis once affordability ceases as mortgages need rolling over after a 10,000% increase in interest rates. -A US real estate crisis as 11 monthly falsified unemployment data is realised -The energy and manufacturing crisis in europe compounded by the highest debt to GDP ratio in its history -A Hollywood presidential election between a criminal and a dementia patient. My point is the macro landscape is looking unpredictable and the TA has much confluence. This feels very much like it did in the beginning of 2020 just before the un-inversion of the yield curve and the then pending recession. It's almost like something globally needs to be orchestrated in order to create an excuse to lower rates and roll the debt over for another 4 years!! Who knows it might even be a cyber attack and CBDC implementation ;-) Either way Bitcoin will still be doing its thing. Keep yourself and those satoshi's safe.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MrGoose83
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has been trading aimlessly this week, fluctuating below the designated Mean Resistance of 1.098. The current target is the Mean Support of 1.090, with a potential decline towards the established Mean Support level of 1.075. On the upside, the Eurodollar may attempt to surpass the Mean Resistance level of 1.098 and reach the Mean Resistance of 1.104 before showing any significant decline.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced significant price fluctuations throughout this week's trading session. It has fallen below our Mean Support level of 1.100, indicating a potential decline towards the established Mean Support of 1.075. It is highly probable that the Eurodollar will retest the Mean Resistance level of 1.098. The current violent movement of the Eurodollar around our crucial Mean Support of 1.090 and Mean Resistance of 1.098 is a clear indication of the same.
by TradeSelecter
Buy VIX Futs with an ETF for simplicity before Santa rally overDowbt Im only one who is front running reversal unjustified market rally with no earning proof driven by inflation that is diminishing no longer supporting earnings JPM'a theory basically mid this pas year but he was correct but too early to the earnings crash party! Now that Dem's fiscal punch bowl is nearly empty adding 7 trillion to national debt in less than a year to help midterms and markets just priced in 5 rate cuts and earnings multiples at 20 (long-term=15) including mag-7 take out mag-7 not so hot). Hard to justify any more growth with excelorating diss-inflation and "black-swan" risk is non-black swan character as so many increasingly potential systemic risk just keep stacking up, plus a corrupted Presidential Administration, Congress, Dept. of Justice, FBI, Dept. of homeland security, school system, universities, and mainstream media have perpetuated/caused the problem with bs employment numbers, omissions and flat out lies as well as staring wars, ruining trade agreements and unleashing the worst inflation in 40 years all about to collapse from sheer societal rejection that will most likely be exposed causing worst crash best described by Jeremy Gratham (just YouTube him if your not familiar with the oldest and most historically-successful "Wall-Streeter perma-bear") NOTICE: Expressions are not recommendation or advice. If you are not competent then obviously should consult what is called an "Advisor" on the subject. Don't blame me if you make a decision based on this as it is only an opinion and past performance does not constitute a reasonable basis for future performance or non-performance as we don't have a time-machine obviously this goes without saying but some really doubt people make it a habit to assume they know with certainty and can guarantee what the future holds and to those I say sit down and humble your self or the market will humble you for yourself in "New York Second," and that is pretty fast. Just saying, don't be a fool and use common sense and trade size and don't blame others for your decisions, and, trade responsibly.
AMEX:UVIXLong
by CurrencyCapital
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has shown significant price movements throughout this week's trading session by surpassing our previously achieved Inner Currency Rally level of 1.099 and its corresponding resistance at the same price point. The current price action suggests that the Eurodollar will likely continue to climb, with the target level set at Inner Currency Rally 1.109. However, it is essential to stay alert to the ever-changing dynamics of the Eurodollar market, as the price action may experience a drawdown.
by TradeSelecter
Navigating Gold's Trajectory Amidst Geopolitical Tensions: An InOANDA:XAUUSD In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, gold continues to capture attention as a reliable indicator and safe haven amidst turbulent geopolitical climates. Today, we delve into a comprehensive analysis of the gold market, shedding light on key trends and factors that shape its trajectory. Our analysis revolves around two critical elements: the trend and Fibonacci theory, coupled with a keen eye on geopolitical considerations. Recent developments in the gold market have prompted a closer look at the interplay between these factors. **Trend Analysis:** Examining the chart, a noteworthy break in the descending trend has occurred, marking the emergence of what we term the "temporary trend" (depicted by a dashed line). This trend, typically manifesting during corrective movements, presents an intriguing opportunity for market participants. Despite the price residing below the ascending zone, geopolitical undercurrents provide a compelling argument for an impending upward surge. **Fibonacci Theory:** Overlaying the chart with Fibonacci retracement lines reveals strategic entry and profit-taking zones, intricately tailored to accommodate varying risk tolerances. This meticulous approach enhances decision-making for traders navigating the complex dynamics of the gold market. **Geopolitical Influences:** Current geopolitical tensions, notably the intensification of conflict between Israel and Gaza, coupled with decisive actions taken by the United States against the Houthi group, inject an unprecedented level of political tension into global affairs. The potential for regional conflict looms large, raising the specter of a global war. This has direct implications for gold as a safe haven, with maritime transport costs soaring to a million dollars per trip. The Red Sea, in turn, transforms into a quasi-ghost sea, signaling a paradigm shift that suggests the world may witness substantial price hikes and inflation. In this scenario, gold emerges as a robust catalyst for upward movement, with price targets reaching levels that border on the fantastical. **Risk Mitigation:** On a strategic level, it's prudent to acknowledge that an announcement of a "ceasefire" in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza could act as a potential deterrent to gold's upward momentum. In such an event, a reconsideration of open gold-selling deals and a proactive approach to risk management may be warranted. In conclusion, as we navigate the intricate web of financial markets, understanding the confluence of trends, Fibonacci theory, and geopolitical dynamics becomes paramount. Gold, in particular, stands poised at the intersection of these forces, presenting both challenges and opportunities for astute investors. For further inquiries or insights, please contact me
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Alaedinh
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout this week's trading session, Bitcoin has been trading within a specific range, defined by two fundamental values: the Completed Outer Coin Rally 44500 and Mean Res 44100. This range has created a level of stability in the market and has allowed for some predictability in the short term. The market is on an upward trend that is expected to continue. Bitcoin is projected to reach the newly established intermediary Mean Res 43100 and surpass it in the coming days. In a downturn, the intermediate target is the robust Mean Sup 41200. This is a crucial level for traders to watch, representing a solid support level for Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter