Get started

Geopolitics

Energy & Inflation - The Chickens Come Home to RoostThe worldwide pandemic gripped the markets two years ago, throwing the global economy into a brief tailspin. In hindsight, the decline in markets across all assets seems like the blink of an eye. At the time, it felt like an eternity. Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile Natural gas at an unseasonal high Coal reached a new record peak US energy policy lit the fuse Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire Energy demand evaporated, sending landlocked NYMEX crude oil below zero for the first time since trading began in the 1980s. Seaborne Brent petroleum fell to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel. Natural gas dropped to a twenty-five-year low at $1.432 per MMBtu, and coal prices fell under $40 per ton. Central Bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy ignited a recovery that began lifting prices. Two years later, the meltdown turned into a melt-up as raging inflation and the first significant war on European soil since World War II turned one crisis into another. The chickens came home to roost in the energy markets as prices went from famine to feast for producers and feast to famine for consumers. Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile In March 2022, crude oil rose to the highest price since 2008 and blew through the $100 per barrel level as a hot knife goes through butter. The monthly chart shows that after probing above $100 in late February, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $130.50 in March, before pulling back to just below the triple digit price at the end of last week. The quarterly chart shows that the energy commodity rose for the eighth consecutive quarter in Q1 2022. Nearby Brent crude oil futures, the benchmark for European, African, Middle Eastern, and Russian petroleum, exploded to $139.13 per barrel in March before pulling back to the $104 level on the June futures contract. While crude oil corrected from the high, the price has been highly volatile, with $10 daily trading ranges becoming the norm instead of the exception. Natural gas at an unseasonal high The natural gas market moves into the injection season in late March as heating demand declines. March tends to be a bearish time in the natural gas market because of the energy commodity’s seasonality. The monthly chart shows that nearby natural gas futures rose to a high of $5.832 in March, the highest level during the month that ends the withdrawal season since 2008. On April 1, the price was over the $5.70 per MMBtu level, more than double the level at the start of April 2021. Coal reached a new record peak Coal, the fossil fuel that environmentalists consider a four-letter energy commodity, rose to a new record high in March. The monthly chart of thermal coal futures for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, shows the price reached a record $465 per ton in March before correcting to the $265.40 level. Meanwhile, the price remained above the previous record high from July 2008 at $224 per ton. US energy policy lit the fuse As the energy demand made a comeback from the lows during the second half of 2020, the change in US administrations planted very bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices. The shift in US energy policy was symbolic and real. On his first day in office on January 21, 2021, President Biden signed an executive order canceling the Keystone XL pipeline, fulfilling his campaign pledge to address climate change. Environmentalists and progressive Democrats called the US addiction to hydrocarbons an existential threat. In 2021 and 2022, the administration banned drilling and fracking for oil and gas on Alaska’s federal lands and tightened regulations on hydrocarbon production. All the while, the demand for gas, oil, and coal was rising. OPEC+, the international oil cartel, and its partner Russia maintained production cuts as they received a gift from the US administration. In March 2020, USD petroleum output led the world at 13.1 million barrels per day. The shift in US energy policy to favor alternative and renewable fuels and inhibit hydrocarbon production and consumption handed the pricing power back to OPEC+ on a silver platter. After decades of striving for energy independence, the US surrendered it in a matter of months. As the price rose, the Biden Administration continued to pander to its party’s progressive wing with green energy rhetoric while begging the cartel to increase output thrice. On each occasion, OPEC+ not so politely refused, and the oil price continued to rise. Meanwhile, natural gas and coal shortages pushed those commodities to multi-year highs. The bottom line is that while addressing climate change is a noble cause, it is a multi-decade project. The US and worldwide consumers continue to depend on the hydrocarbons that power the globe. The shift in energy policy planted very bullish seeds where oil wells, gas fields, and coal mines once produced the energy commodities on US soil. An unexpected event made the prices combustible. Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire In previous articles before the invasion, we wrote that the February 4 meeting between China’s President Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a “watershed event.” The $117 billion trade agreement was secondary to the “no-limits” support deal. Twenty days after the leaders shook hands at the Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony, Russia invaded Ukraine launching a bloody and devasting war that created a massive schism in the geopolitical landscape. Sanctions on Russia, retaliatory measures, and heated rhetoric ignited an explosive fuse in fossil fuel markets. In crude oil, the price rose as Russia is a leading producer. Supply concerns pushed the Brent and WTI futures markets into backwardations where deferred prices were lower than prices for nearby delivery. The price eclipsed the $100 per barrel level for the first time since 2014 and reached the highest price since 2008. Asian and European natural gas prices were trading at much higher levels than the US Henry Hub price before Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices exploded to a new record peak in March. The chart of ICE UK natural gas futures speaks for itself with the explosive move to a record peak in March. LNG changed the US natural gas market over the past years, expanding its reach beyond the North American pipeline network. LNG now travels the world by ocean tankers, making US domestic prices more sensitive to worldwide levels. In the wake of Russian aggression and European sanctions, Europe is attempting to wean itself from its addiction to Russian natural gas, increasing the need for US LNG imports. The increase in demand has put upward pressure on US natural gas prices and downward pressure on inventories, which were over 14% below the five-year average for the week ending on March 25, 2022. In the coal market, China and India have had a healthy appetite for the dirtiest fossil fuel. Moreover, rising oil and natural gas prices put upward pressure on coal, a less expensive alternative. Meanwhile, rising inflation is causing production costs to rise as labor, equipment, and all other aspects of extracting fossil fuels and all commodities from the earth’s crust have skyrocketed. Rising energy prices are a root cause of increasing inflation, but it has become a vicious cycle that also impacts energy output costs. The February US inflation data ran at the highest level in over four decades. Last week, the US President announced the release of one million barrels per day from the US strategic petroleum reserve. Taping the supplies could run 180 days, making it the most significant use of the SPR in history. Meanwhile, over the past decades, most SPR releases have not pushed prices lower, and some have caused rallies in the oil futures market. US energy policy planted bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices in early 2021. It did not take long for the chickens to come home to roost. Now that consumers are pay $4, $5, $6, and $7 per gallon for gasoline, the administration calls higher prices the Russian President’s fault, a convenient political ploy. The perfect bullish storm in energy began long before Russian troops rolled over Ukraine’s border. The Russian leader and sanctions poured fuel on an already raging inflationary fire in the energy markets. However, US energy, monetary, and fiscal policies were the original arsonists. The base prices for oil, gas, and coal will remain elevated for as long as the eye can see. Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach to the sector. Since corrections in commodities markets can be brutal, adjust your risk-reward horizons to reflect wide price variance. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For April 1, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Since Friday, March 25, Bitcoin's Inner Coin Rally $48,000 and Key Res $47,900 were completed, as shown on Daily Chart Analysis For March 25. The retest of the obsoleted Key Res $44,400 is a very low probability however is alive and well. The push to retest the completed Inner Coin Rally at $48,000 and Key Res at $47,900 and move substantially higher to the next Inner Coin Rally at $54,000 is in the cards.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
4
Decline of the US Dollar Means Commodities Will Continue To RoarThe pound sterling, the United Kingdom’s foreign currency instrument, was the global reserve currency in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. For decades, the US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency, which became official in 1944 after a delegation from forty-four allied countries decided that the world’s currencies would no longer be linked to gold but pegged to the US dollar, which was linked to gold. The Bretton Woods Agreement established the authority of central banks to maintain fixed exchange rates between their foreign exchange instruments and the US dollar. In turn, the US would redeem US dollars for gold on demand. The redemption option ended in 1971 when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value. The dollar’s link to commodities Three factors that will continue to weigh on the dollar’s global role Expect higher base prices for commodities Long-term trends are very bullish Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach For seventy-eight years, since the end of World War II, the US dollar has been the king of the currencies. On December 27, 1945, the participating countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon abandoned the gold standard. On February 4, 2022, a handshake on a “no-limits” support agreement between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin may go down in history as the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the leading world reserve currency. The watershed event could have far-reaching consequences for markets across all asset classes. Commodities are global assets. The end of the dollar’s reign as the monarch of money will likely lift raw material prices in dollar terms in the coming years. The dollar’s link to commodities As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar has been the leading global pricing mechanism for most commodities. Over the past decades, a rising dollar often weighed on commodity prices as the essentials became more expensive in other currency terms. A weak dollar encouraged buying as prices fell in different foreign exchange instruments. While the US is the world’s leading economy, the population at around 333 million is only 4.2% of the total number of people on our planet. Therefore, the dollar’s link to commodities is financially based on the US position in the global financial markets and not on the supply and demand equations for the raw materials. If the dollar’s role in the world declines, its link to commodity prices will diminish. Three factors that will continue to weigh on the dollar’s global role King dollar is facing a challenge in 2022 as world economic and political events threaten its dominance. The US dollar faces at least three issues that continue to erode its purchasing power and role in the global economy: Inflation - The February US CPI and PPI data pointed to the highest inflation in over four decades. The March data will be even worse. The Fed began increasing short-term interest rates but remains far behind the inflationary curve. Rising inflation erodes the US dollar’s purchasing power. Geopolitical tensions - The war in Ukraine and China’s support for Russia has dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape. In the leadup to the expansionary move, Russia reduced its US dollar reserves, increasing holdings in euros and gold. Sanctions on Russia will likely cause China to follow the same course. China is the world’s second-leading economy, and Russia is a leading commodity-producing country. As China and Russia move away from using the US currency as a reserve currency, the dollar’s global role will decline. Geopolitical tensions have accelerated the descent. The decline of fiat currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies is a sign of the fall of fiat currencies. Cryptos derive value from bids and offers for the currencies in an open and transparent market that transcends borders. Fiat currencies derive value from the full faith and credit in the governments that issue the legal tender. Meanwhile, rising commodity prices signify the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. The dollar index measures the US currency against other world currencies, but it is a bit of a mirage as when all fiat currencies lose value, it is not apparent. The dollar index measures the US currency against other world reserve currencies, including the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. The most significant weighting, at 57.6%, is against the euro currency. The dollar may be moving higher against the basket of currencies, but that does not mean that all of them, including the dollar, are losing value. Expect higher base prices for commodities The decline of the dollar and all fiat currencies makes purchasing power drop and commodity prices rise. Therefore, a strong dollar index has not weighed on many commodity prices over the past year. The weekly chart shows that the dollar index has rallied, making higher lows and higher highs since early 2021. Over that period, most commodities have risen to multi-year and all-time highs. The strength of the dollar did nothing to restrain increasing raw material prices. Meanwhile, higher US interest rates increase the cost of carrying commodity inventories and boost the US dollar’s value against other currencies. The weekly chart of the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, pushing long-term interest rates higher. The bottom line is that a rising dollar and increasing US interest rates have not stopped commodity prices from rallying since early 2021. Higher interest rates, rising inflation, geopolitical turmoil leading to supply chain issues, and sanctions that interfere with many raw materials supply and demand equations mean that production costs are rising. The base prices for raw materials are moving higher. Long-term trends are very bullish Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and since commodities are highly volatile assets, corrections can be brutal. However, the long-term charts in four leading commodities, copper, crude oil, corn, and gold, display the same bullish patterns. The quarterly chart of COMEX copper futures shows the bullish pattern over the past two decades. The highly political crude oil market displays the path of least resistance of the price is higher. US energy policy and geopolitical turmoil have only exacerbated the upward trajectory of the energy commodity since April 2020. Corn’s price path has been higher, making higher highs and higher lows for decades. Gold’s bull market dates back over two decades. Gold may be the best example of the decline in fiat currency values as it is a hybrid between a commodity and a foreign exchange instrument. Many other commodities display the same long-term trends. The recent strength in the US dollar means that commodity prices in other currencies have followed even more bullish price paths over the past year. Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach The trend is always your best friend in markets. While short-term and medium-term traders follow technicals that depend on the market’s sentiment, long-term trends are a function of macro and microeconomic factors. The decline of fiat currency values continues to push commodity prices higher. Over the past decades, price corrections have been long-term buying opportunities in the commodities asset class. The economic and geopolitical landscapes point to a continuation of the trend. Buying on price weakness has offered optimal results. Even if the US dollar index continues to rise, it will not mean the currency is strong. The foreign exchange market is a mirage that only measures one fiat currency’s value against another. Commodity prices are the actual value indicator, and the long-term trends reveal that currencies are all losing purchasing power. We remain bullish on commodities. However, the higher the prices, the more vicious the corrections will become. Buying when they look the worse could be the best course of action over the coming months and years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:AW1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
What Will A Geopolitical Compromise Means For Markets?Henry Clay was a US Senator from Kentucky, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the US Secretary of State, and a Presidential candidate in the 1800s. His legacy and nickname were “The Great Compromiser” for his involvement with the Missouri Compromise, the Compromise Tariff of 1833, and the Compromise of 1850. As Henry Clay understood, any great compromise means that both sides at the negotiating table must come to an agreement that makes them uncomfortable or incomplete. The price of an asset is always the correct price A messy geopolitical landscape Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds Option two- A prolonged conflict Option three- The unthinkable In 2022, the geopolitical temperature has risen to the highest level since WW II. On February 4, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin met at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The leaders signed a $117 billion trade agreement, but the watershed event was the “no-limits” cooperation understanding. Twenty days later, after the end of the Olympics, Russia invaded Ukraine, launching the first major war on European soil in over three-quarters of a century. Many analysts believe the Russian invasion sets the stage for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Volatility in markets across all asset classes has increased, and uncertainty is the market’s worst enemy. The war, sanctions, retaliation, and a Chinese-Russian alliance threatens the status quo over the previous decades. The price of an asset is always the correct price As we learned in early 2020 in nearly all asset classes, bear markets can take prices to levels that defy logic and rational and logical analysis. The same holds on the upside as price spikes can reach unthinkable heights. The moves to the upside or downside compel many market participants to sell what they believe are tops or buy when they think the market cannot go any lower. Picking tops or bottoms is more about ego than making money, as the effort contradicts to prevailing trends. Picking a top or a bottom is a statement that the current price is too high or too low, which is always a mistake. Market participants can be wrong, but markets are never wrong. The price of any asset is always the right price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on a value in a transparent marketplace. Declaring a market top or bottom is a contrarian statement as it goes against the prevailing trend. A messy geopolitical landscape Two years ago, the world faced a common enemy as COVID-19 ignored borders, race, religion, political ideology, and all of the other factors that separate countries and people. In February and March 2022, the world faces new and daunting challenges: The Chinese and Russian leaders shook hands on a “no-limits” alliance. Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the first major war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine continues to put up fierce resistance. The US, NATO allies in Europe and allies worldwide slapped sanctions on Russia. Russia retaliated with export bans and other measures. North Korea test-fired ICBM missiles. Iran fired missiles near the US embassy in Iraq. Russian missiles came within miles of the Polish border. An attack on Poland triggers article five of NATO’s charter- An attack on one member is an attack on all. China and Russia stand on opposite sides of the conflict from the US and Europe. China plans to reunify with Taiwan against their will. On the US domestic scene, the US remains divided along political lines with mid-term elections in November. The central bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy during the pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse before the geopolitical landscape deteriorated. The war in Ukraine only exacerbates price increases as Russia is a leading world producer of raw materials. Europe’s breadbasket in Ukraine and Russia is now a mine and battlefield at the start of the 2022 crop year. Russia and Ukraine typically supply one-third of the world’s wheat and other crops. They are also leading fertilizer exporters, causing problems in other worldwide growing regions. In 2022, the war will lead to rising prices, falling supplies, and the potential for famine and civil uprisings. Historically, food shortages have caused many revolutions. The 2010 Arab Spring that began as food riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Biden administration pledged to address climate change by supporting alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. US production declined in 2021. After decades of working to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, US policy handed the pricing power to the international oil cartel. Since 2016, Russia has had an increasing role in OPEC’s production policy. In 2022, the cartel does not move unless Moscow agrees to cooperate. Oil prices were already rising when Russia invaded Ukraine, and they moved over $100 per barrel after the attack. Meanwhile, other fossil fuels have moved higher. Coal traded to a new all-time peak. US natural gas rose to a multi-year high, and European and Asia gas prices rose to record levels. Rising energy prices fueled inflation, and the war has poured fuel on an already burning inflationary fire. The war in Ukraine is less than one month old, and the human toll is rising. Tensions are at the highest level in decades. Markets are nervous, and the developments on the geopolitical over the coming days and weeks will dictate the direction of markets across all asset classes. I see three potential outcomes. Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds In the current standoff, neither side wants to give an inch. The Russian leader faces disgrace or worse if he loses to an inferior military but impassioned Ukrainian population, many of who would choose death over capitulation. The US and Europe do not want to appease Russia like the UK’s Nevil Chamberlain appeased Hitler in the 1930s. China may support Russia, but the world’s second-leading economy has close economic ties with the US and Europe. A Henry Clay-inspired great compromiser could emerge and come up with a solution where Russia, China, the US, Europe, and the rest of the world walk away from the negotiating table unhappy but with a workable solution. I believe, and it is more than a bit of wishful thinking, that this is the high odds result of the current geopolitical mess, and the result will go down in history as the great compromise of 2022. A great compromise would likely lead to a significant stock market rally and a commodity correction. Option two- A prolonged conflict A prolonged conflict where Russians fight a long and bloody war against Ukrainian forces will devastate the world economy and peace. Russia may capture territory, but it is clear President Putin will never capture the souls of the Ukrainian masses. The Russian brutality over the past weeks will never be forgotten. President Putin did not count on the passionate resistance Russian troops encountered across Ukraine. The longer the battle and the more brutal the weapons, the greater the price for Russians controlling the territory over the coming years. Millions of refugees have left the country, but that leaves over 40 million Ukrainians; most now consider Russians their mortal enemy. A long battle will weaken the Russian military and the Russian leader abroad. A prolonged conflict will cause sanctions to collapse Russia’s economy, causing domestic problems for President Putin and his government. Moreover, skirmishes are likely to break out worldwide. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, North Korea and Iran flexed their military muscles. With Europe and the US focused on Ukraine, China could use the opportunity to seize Taiwan. A prolonged conflict would weigh on US stocks and likely lift commodity prices to higher highs. Option three- The unthinkable The final option is the nuclear one, which is low odds, but a highly frightening scenario. If Russian aggression spreads across the Ukraine border into Poland or any NATO member country, it will trigger Article five that states an attack on one is an attack on all. The US and Russia have the most nuclear weapons, which increases the potential of MAD or mutually assured destruction. In this scenario, it does not matter how markets react as the world would face a disastrous situation. I believe that a great compromise is on the horizon, which would cause markets to stabilize. However, the extent of the compromise is critical as it must address the current situation in Ukraine and Taiwan and threats from North Korea and Iran. Anything short of a comprehensive understanding between the world’s powers will cause years of rising tension and threats to the nearly eight billion people that inhabit our planet. Where is Henry Clay when the world needs him? Expect the volatility in markets to continue. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
2
GBPJPY Bearish Coming UP!Hey Traders! We can see GBPJPY in a Bearish Momentum on the 4 Hours & On the Daily Time Frames. We are 90% most likely to rise up to the Order Block shaded areas, where the resistance zones are! Plus we all know about Geopolitical news! As far as we can all see, the situation between Russia & Ukraine is not getting better! Plus We know GBPUSD is headed to create a Lower Low! (Mentioned in another Idea) 2 possible outcomes are: 1. We follow the direction of the Yellow Line 2. We follow the direction of the Purple Line, We are most likely to follow up this direction unless the market decides to grab further liquidity and rise up to the stronger resistance before further downside momentum! Notes: Do not trade when the market first opens on Monday due to high Spreads + No movements. It's better to wait for around 4 Hours then you can trade! I am personally not trading just yet, i am an 18 years old university student who is trying his best to help people make money in hope to get some donations in return Thank you Good luck on your trading!
Short
by Nanoplex
$GLOP - LNG BREAKOUTGreat LNG play here. Not everywhere has pipelines. New England for example. Everything has to be transport by ship and then by ground here. GasLog Partners LP is a limited partnership company. The Company focuses on owning, operating and acquiring liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers under multi-year charters. The Company's fleet consists of 14 LNG carriers with an average carrying capacity of approximately 157,000 cubic meters (cbm), each of which has a multi-year time charter. The Company's fleet includes GasLog Seattle, GasLog Shanghai, GasLog Santiago, GasLog Sydney, Methane Rita Andrea, Methane Jane Elizabeth, Methane Alison Victoria, Methane Shirley Elisabeth and Methane Heather Sally. The GasLog Seattle is a tri-fuel diesel electric LNG carrier. Each of the GasLog Seattle, GasLog Shanghai, GasLog Santiago and GasLog Sydney vessels has a cargo capacity of approximately 155,000 cbm. Each of the Methane Rita Andrea, Methane Heather Sally, Methane Shirley Elisabeth, Methane Alison Victoria and Methane Jane Elizabeth vessels has a cargo capacity of approximately 145,000 cbm. They do carry some Russian gas- but it does not look like all NATO countries will agree to ban oil. Might just be the United States. This carrier operates internationally.
GLong
by jaykenneyTRT
Oil at 2011 Highs - What to look forThis isn't strictly a technical analysis. I'd like to gage the market sentiment and geo political tensions before I commit to a trade. If I see price break support but I'm seeing bullish headlines, I won't take a oil short. I'm waiting for a bearish catalyst and a break of the support I pointed out. Below are some bullish and bearish headlines I'll be looking out for. Bearish Oil Headlines Examples: Cease Fire in Ukraine Russians Withdrawal Iran Nuclear Deal reached Refusal to sanction Russian Oil More reserves released Bullish Oil Headlines Examples: Military action involving NATO countries No fly zone implemented over Ukraine More nuclear weapon rhetoric Sanctions on Russian oil exports. NATO countries supplying weapons/equipment to Ukraine. Iran nuclear deal negotiations fall apart
TVC:USOILShort
by natron
4