BGEO Potential Breakdown (Bank of Georgia)BGEO has been in a nice uptrend for some time now but is it really the time to switch the flip now? What we see on a chart is a healthy correction and touching the trendline support but there is a big BUT. Amidst this current situation in Georgia, Tbilisi, people has been protesting the "Russian Law" which turned now into protesting the government itself. This could be start of the breakdown for LSE:BGEO in my opinion because the situation is only gonna get worse for Tbilisi if government keeps going against the people.
Georgia
USD/GEL Main trend (long-term). Channel. Downward wedge.Logarithm. Time frame 1 month. Main trend. Long-term trend.
Decided to make an idea, as now, a lot of people from Ukraine and Russia emigrate to small Georgia for a while. There is a strong appreciation of lari while the currencies of other countries are depreciating. I won't describe why the GEL is getting stronger, as everyone understands why. Also, you should pay attention to the flag of this country, its symbolism and similarity to another country (Switzerland, 4 parts). But this is already a digression from TA. I will focus on the technical side.
This idea is not so much for earning (though it is possible to earn good money on the breaking of the wedge), as for understanding what will happen with the strange currency and at what time (I showed it earlier by the examples Russian ruble and Ukrainian UAH , I attached the ideas), because the state currency price diagram is nothing else but an imprint of political rate and events in the country.
Rising channel (the main trend). It is currently undergoing a correction (head and shoulders), thus forming a descending wedge (secondary trend). The price is almost close to the dynamic support of the uptrend.
I showed two main scenarios of the long-term trend development on purpose. It is probably clear which one is less likely. Also shown are the percentages to the main support/resistance levels from the reversal zone for clarity.
This is what a line chart of prices looks like.
Secondary trend. Wedge. Time frame 1 week
It is very likely that after the wedge breakout there will be some kind of consolidation in the sideways area of dynamic support, provided there are no "stressful" force majeure events.
Bear Flag or Channel Continuation?Stocks are being panic bid here at the open, so it's another win for central banks and hence the billionaire class. Blue wave, red wave, green wave, or purple wave, it means nothing folks. The way I see it, both the dems and the republicans want the FED to keep crushing the dollar through persistent easing of monetary policy, which primarily increases the wealth gap, while encouraging the working class to go even deeper into debt. It's a mean trick, and for some reason everyone keeps begging for it. On the fiscal side, dems want more stimulus (debt), and higher taxes (why the headfake about taxing when the status quo is that they will continue to print?), while the republicans want less stimulus and lower taxes, (in other words, FED please keep increasing the wealth gap, but don't you dare raise taxes at all to spend our existing money). Either way it's a lose/lose for the working class/90% of us.
On the technical side, we're seeing either a bear flag/liquidity grab from the bears, or a reversal of the bearish sentiment/downtrend we observed at the beginning of the week. The 10Y yield is rallying hard today and for the first time since March 2020, we just crossed the 1% mark. Let's see how the roughly 15 Trillion in global negative yielding debt fears when they see that the US risk free rate is paying more than some corporate bonds. What if the bond market was about to crash, sparking a cascade of defaults across the corporate bond spectrum, where the majority of ratings sit at BBB-. Where would all that cash go? Probably not stocks, as they're mostly insanely overvalued, so maybe the best trade, notwithstanding the insane rally in crypto to date, is crypto itself. The sad thing is, Bitcoin is often used as a barometer of sentiment, and a hedge against inflation. So, if we saw a glimpse of deflation in markets, bitcoin would be down 50% similar to the crashes we saw at various times in the recent past.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, sometimes the only way to win is to not participate. It's time to start increasing that income, which must keep up with the inflation we're seeing in every corner of capital markets. Let's see how the day progresses, and best of luck out there! Thanks for your time today guys. If you enjoyed the analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.