GER30 'Dat bounce' or dead cat?So we scalped here and there, but took no serious positions in this :poop: show of an index lately. We've adjusted the support of the broadening top from our previous view (see related) a bit down after what seems to be either a bottom or a dead cat bounce. Same rules apply.
Whatever is happening here, we're going sideline into FOMC on $GER30.
Enjoy the :poop: show tonight! I'll be making :popcorn: (for real) and watching the 1min twerk on a big screen (no joke here either).
GER30-DAX
Three bearish harmonics to monitor - FOMC week$SPX managed to close the trading week above the 1950 support zone, having its best week since July.
I get a lot of questions asking whether the latest S&P bullish move is a correction wave (to its August declines) or whether August's bearish move was the correction that the market was waiting for and we are heading to another bullish wave that will conquer a new record high.
My answer to this question is simple - There were two major technical events that happened during August that, for me, signal that the markets may be shifting direction.
1. The close below the 200 days MA
2. The close below the 50 weeks MA
As long as $SPX will remains below 2040-2060 (which was my final bullish target zone on my latest bullish setup), I'll continue to consider $SPX's rally as correction move to August's crash.
The chart shows three different harmonic trading patterns I'm looking at as potential sell zones:
1. Bearish Bat - Will complete near the 2000 handle (resistance)
2. Bearish Butterfly - Will complete near 2020 and the 4H 200 SMA line (resistance)
3. Bearish Gartley - The final and probably the strongest resistance zone of all is inside the 2040-206 zone
The first pattern is a short term pattern that could lead to a small pullback move towards 1970, or even to 1950 again. Only if the price will close below 1950 I'll consider the option that it may close near 1900 again.
The last two patterns will be interesting if the price will rally and reach their PRZs before or after the FOMC meeting.
The obvious setup is to sell when the price reaches the PRZ, but there's also a good change that the price will remain below 2000 till Wednesday and will rally to complete one of last two patterns only following the announcement and the press conference if the Fed won't raise rate (as I expect) - That's BTW is the bullish scenario for those who want to speculate on this possible scenario.
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GER30/DAX short, reaching upper edge of flagDue to the insecure overall political situation in Europe, plunging chinese stocks and industrial metals, the testing of the upper channel edge and a relatively oversold market , we may see another breakdown at least to previous structure level of at least 10700. Another support zone at around 10600 marked with the thin green line may also indicate a potential reversal zone at around 10600 to 10700.
As always, Stop-Loss is set right about previous structure highs, giving us a nice Risk Reward Ratio of 2,9.
In long term view a decrease down to about the 10000 level is the maximum imaginable to me, because of huge resistance levels marked with the long green rectangle. This would theoretically give us an RRR of 5,17 but is not easy to predict in this by politics driven stock markets
GER30 (DAX) Pin Bar Buy Signal - 18th June 2015Trading Setups: GER30 (DAX) Pin Bar Buy Signal
The GER30 (DAX) formed a bullish pin bar buy signal yesterday after moving briefly below 10970 key support level. In addition we can see that this bullish pin bar almost formed at the bottom line of a channel. We could see price move higher from this pin bar in the coming days. Yesterday price retraced 50% which gives us a great entry for a 3:1 R/R trade setup.
DAX 8 year history lesson (on monthly candles)DAX history lesson:
Only 3 times with 2 closing candles OUTSIDE the bollinger band. Firstly in 2001 after tech bubble. Secondly before financial crash 2007....Thirdly in late 2008 during crash.
TODAY we're looking at allready 2 candles closing ABOVE he upper bollinger band, and a third forming with only 6 trading days left of the montly candle. Bollinger top right now is at 11671. DAX is at 11939.
We should see a close within the bands, and a correction afterwards, to get the DAX back into the bands.
GER30 at resistance zone (long-term)Hi Traders,
I just closed all my long term longs on $GER30 as I think we are in a great place to reverse or correct for a long time. As we can see on the graphs, waves with equal legs and we just completed 5 waves up. Also, RSI at trend line resistance. If I see anything bearish on 4hr, I might try to short in few days.
Thanks!
Thiago Duarte
thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com
@thiagotrader
Bearish trade set up on #Dax.i) The candle on 06/11/2014 made the high of this move.
ii) The candle on 12/11/2014 closed below the low of the candle in (i).
iii) This reverse candle formation appeared right at the bottom of the Kumo Cloud, which typically acts as a Resistance area.
iv) A re test of the previous low is expected at 8406.
v) the dashed pink lines are the immediate support areas, where price swing should occur at low time frames.
vi) don't forget to trail the stop loss (every two selling bars)
DAX: GER30 in bear market after breaking 8900 zone ?DAX is now for second day under the very important 8900 support zone area.
If DAX in the next day not return to 8900 zone , we can confirm the bearish
outlook.
Summarized :
bear:
DAX break his long trendline 2011
DAX starting making lower lows
The very strong 8900 supportzone turning in heavy resistance zone.
negative for bear :
oversold RSI
If we have a false breakout from 8900 , 8900 return back in supportzone for DAX.
The new earnings season starts, if results are good , DAX will recover to make a positive balance for 2014.
DAX is topping in consolidation zone.Today Dax is down to it's first support zone 9880. Last 4 weeks Dax is consolidating in a 155 points zone.
For the 5th time we get in the 9880 zone. From here there are 2 options. Support maintain and DAX go futher upside again (10050 top). Other option is a break from the short trendline and 9880 supportline. This brings DAX to next support level 9800. There is still 400 points downspace before we break the 2011 trendline. Only after breaking this trendline DAX get in downtrend zone.