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Ger40

DAX primary trend still remains positive.GER40 - 24h expiry Daily signals are bullish. We are trading at overbought extremes. Short-term momentum is bearish. A lower correction is expected. The 1-day moving average should provide support at 15980. The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows. We look to Buy at 15981 (stop at 15896) Our profit targets will be 16191 and 16241 Resistance: 16090 / 16150 / 16230 Support: 16059 / 16000 / 15930 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
A Traders’ Playbook - A defining Week for Financial Markets After an eventful week for the NAS100, US500, JPN225, GER40 and the USD, traders should be open-minded for further twists in the market script this week. At one stage last week better-than-feared US data and some modestly hawkish Fed chatter saw US interest rate futures price a 40% chance of a hike at the June FOMC meeting - the USD naturally benefited from this pricing. Yet after Jay Powell’s speech on Friday market pricing is firmly back to thinking the Fed will pause. I look at the data flow due in the week ahead and question how the outcome could affect market pricing for Fed action in June (and further rout the rates curve) and what that means for the USD, equities, and gold. However, it still feels like the US debt ceiling, and the price action in US banks, are going to dominate the narrative. In the art of brinkmanship, it feels that to get a deal we must see greater market volatility and so far, we’ve not really seen really any stress outside of US Treasury bills. That could change this week and while for much of last week the headlines were that a deal is within reach, the breakdown in talks from Republican negotiators on Friday has many thinking that we could be pushed right to the June deadline before we see an agreement – where in the spirit of political negotiations politicians simply have to take this to the wire to make it seem like they’ve truly fought for the best deal. Volatility markets are calm as they come, but don’t be surprised if that changes this week. Marquee event risks for the week ahead US core PCE (Friday 22:30 AEST) – The market expects core PCE at 4.6% YoY, with economists’ range of estimates set between 4.7% to 4.2%. A number below 4.4% could weigh on the USD, while above 4.7% and the USD should find buyers. Much obviously depends on the news flow at that time around the US debt ceiling. FOMC May meeting minutes (Thurs 04:00 AEST) – while the minutes are backwards-looking in nature it could give us some understanding as to the appetite within the Fed ranks to pause in the 14 June FOMC meeting. S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 23:45 AEST) – the market has moved on this data release before, and above consensus numbers could push the USD higher. With US growth data points under the spotlight, we look to see if manufacturing grows or contracts (month-on-month) and how it stacks up vs UK and EU PMIs – the consensus is for manufacturing to print 50 (from 50.2) and for services at 52.5 (53.6). *Above 50 shows expansion vs the prior month, below 50 shows contraction. UK CPI (Wed 16:00 AEST) – the market expects headline inflation to fall rapidly to 8.2% (from 10.1%), while core inflation is expected to be steady at 6.2% (6.2%). The form guide suggests a modest risk of an above consensus outcome and could have meaning on the 22 June BoE meeting, where the market ascribes an 80% chance of a hike. GBPUSD support is seen at 1.2355 and a weak print could see this tested. UK Global manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 18:00 AEST) – the market sees the manufacturing index coming in at 48.0 and services at 55.5 (55.9). Unlikely this data series materially impacts interest rate expectations for the June BoE meeting - so in turn, I’m not expecting this to influence the GBP in any great capacity, but that depends on the outcome of course. EU Global manufacturing and services PMI (Tues 18:00 AEST) – the market sees a modest improvement in the pace of contraction in manufacturing, with the diffusion index eyed at 46.0 (45.8). Services PMI is eyed at 55.5 (56.2), which would be a healthy pace of growth. EURUSD is likely sold into rallies this week, although higher volatility driven by a worsening in the debt ceiling talks could see the USD offered. RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEST) – the market prices 33bp of hikes (a 32% chance of a 50bp hike), with 16/17 economists calling for a 25bp hike. With the economist community of the view we get a 25bp hike, there are risks of a quick drop in the NZD (given the small premium for a 50bp hike). We’ve seen traders covering NZD shorts into the meeting, with the NZD the best performer in G10 FX last week. Are we close to the end in the hiking cycle? The market prices a 25bp hike at this meeting and at least one more by October. Tokyo CPI (Fri 09:50 AEST) – the market sees headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation at 3.9% (from 3.8%) – last week the JPY attracted good selling flow as the carry trade kicked in in earnest. Again, much depends on the feel towards the US debt ceiling as the JPY is probably the best trade to be long if we do see higher volatility as we roll towards 1 June. Stock of the week: NVIDIA (report Thursday at 06:20 AEST) – it’s been an incredible hold throughout all of 2023 and a momentum juggernaut, driven largely by a constant wave of short-dated call (options) buyers. Into Q1 24 earnings, we find the stock +113% YTD with valuations at sky-high levels. Investors can buy NVDA for a hefty 68x earnings, well above the long-term average - the idea of buying growth at any price rings true here. Nvidia is the poster child of the AI revolution, with many now using the word “bubble” more liberally towards AI equities. The implied move on the day of earnings is 3.3% and given the incredible run through 2023 this level of expected movement seems rather conservatively priced by options market makers. With the street expecting the company to report 91c of EPS, on $6.503b in sales, one questions if earnings and guidance truly matter - or do management just need to offer inspiration on the future of AI and Nvidia’s leadership in the AI/ML space to keep the bull run intact. Central bank speakers in the week ahead: Fed speakers – Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly, Logan, Waller, Collins ECB speakers – There are 19 speakers due this week I won’t list them all RBA speakers – David Jacobs (Head of Domestic markets) speaks (Wed 17:10 AEST) BoE speakers – Haskel, Bailey
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
1
DAX Testing its All Time High but upside may be limited!DAX had an excellent run since our previous buy signal on March 21 (see chart below) that hit its target yesterday: The index is right now moments away from hitting the 16300 Resistance, which is the All Time High (ATH) of November 19 2021. The long-term pattern since the end of October 2022 has been a Channel Up and within it, three Megaphone patterns have guided the price to each Higher High before an eventual correction back towards its bottom. The symmetry is evident even on the +10.80% rallies that it has done three times. The 1D RSI usually hits the 76.00 Resistance and then after a series of Lower Highs, we get the top confirmation to sell. Right now the RSI has just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier. In our opinion the upside is limited to around 16400 but as mentioned, we will only sell after we see Lower Highs forming. On the first Channel Up pull-back, it was the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that supported, on the second it was the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and this time it should be lower. Our early projection is 15500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
D
by TradingShot
5
DAX: Holding the 4H MA50 but has one more Resistance to break.DAX is on its 4H MA50 with the 4H MA200 on a parallel move to the bottom of the Channel Up. Both the 1D and 4H (RSI = 52.763, MACD = 7.300, ADX = 19.891) are neutral so we will only take short term, confirmed trades after breakouts. A crossing over R1 (even better if the 4H RSI also crosses over its LH trendline) is a buy breakout signal (TP = 16,100) and further of the HH trendline, a buy signal targeting the All Time High (TP = 16,300). We will go short on the other hand, if the index closes under S1 and target S2 (TP = 15,500). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by InvestingScope
6
DAX to find buyers at market?GER40 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 15921 (stop at 15841) Daily signals are bullish. The primary trend remains bullish. Previous resistance at 15900 now becomes support. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. We look to buy dips. Our profit targets will be 16121 and 16171 Resistance: 16010 / 16100 / 16200 Support: 15960 / 15900 / 15860 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
DLong
by VantageMarkets
DAX: Bullish inside a Channel Up unless this line breaks.DAX is trading inside a Channel Up with the 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 53.275, MACD = -10.100, ADX = 32.263). With 1D also neutral , it indicates that the dominant bullish trend has to be favored and that this is a buy opportunity. That is also supported by the 4H RSI which held the 38.60 Support. Keep in mind though that the index has been pulling back inside a Channel Down, so we will buy only if it crosses above it and target near the All Time High (TP = 16,250). If rejected inside the Channel Down, we will short term sell and target the S1 (TP = 15,660), where the price can touch the 4H MA200 after several weeks. Finally if it closes under the S1 and 4H MA200, we will expect a stronger drop back to the Pivot Zone, thus sell with TP = 15,300. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by InvestingScope
3
DAX to breakdown?GER40 - 24h expiry We are trading at overbought extremes. Short-term momentum is bearish. Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains. 15750 continues to hold back the bears. 15729 has been pivotal. A break of the recent low at 15729 should result in a further move lower. We look to Sell a break of 15719 (stop at 15801) Our profit targets will be 15519 and 15479 Resistance: 15800 / 15850 / 15900 Support: 15750 / 15700 / 15640 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
DAX to turnaround at overbought extremes?GER40 - 24h expiry - Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Price action has posted a Doji candle and confirms a possible stall in the recent move. The trend of higher intraday lows has also been broken. We are trading at overbought extremes. A higher correction is expected. A break of the recent low at 15790 should result in a further move lower. We look to Sell a break of 15778 (stop at 15878) Our profit targets will be 15528 and 15478 Resistance: 15880 / 15950 / 15980 Support: 15790 / 15700 / 15650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
4-19-23 [ger40]special request from one of our members. --- this is the german index,,, i don't know much about germany, but i reckon it's in a similar situation as our market: >bears keep shorting, >market maker keeps squeezing. >the more the bears add, >the higher the index goes. >index can't drop until the bears do. --- what i'm depicting in the above chart is called a sharp double zig-zag. to validate wave X of the double z, one could look at the 12H rsi and notice the depth of it. --- i estimate this move finishes at HKEX:17 ,777 will give you a macro update after. 🍀
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by notoriousbids
2
DAX traded to the highest level in 62 weeks!GER40 - 24h expiry - Daily signals are bullish. Traded to the highest level in 62 weeks. There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 15683. 15791 has been pivotal. A break of the recent high at 15791 should result in a further move higher. We look to Buy a break of 15801 (stop at 15681) Our profit targets will be 16101 and 16151 Resistance: 15791 / 15900 / 16000 Support: 15630 / 15600 / 15500 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX: Holding the 4H MA50. Accumulating for the next rally.DAX is trading on a Rising Wedge pattern inside a Channel Up, whose 4H RSI just hit the 1 month HL trendline. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 58.718, MACD = 105.900, ADX = 38.304) hence the long term trend upwards. As long as the 4H MA50 holds, our target remains the top of the Rising Wedge (TP = 16,100). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by InvestingScope
3
GER40 to breakdown at overbought extremes?GER40 - 24h expiry - We are trading at overbought extremes. Bearish divergence can be seen on the 4 hour chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower. The bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart is negative for sentiment. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A break of the recent low at 15551 should result in a further move lower. We look for losses to be extended today. A higher correction is expected. We look to Sell a break of 15598 (stop at 15718) Our profit targets will be 15298 and 15248 Resistance: 15660 / 15740 / 15800 Support: 15552 / 15500 / 15370 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
DAX momentum has stalled at 2023 highs.GER40 - 24h expiry - We are trading at overbought extremes. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. 15708 has been pivotal. A higher correction is expected. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. We look to Sell at 15699 (stop at 15819) Our profit targets will be 15401 and 15341 Resistance: 15662 / 15708 / 15800 Support: 15550 / 15470 / 15350 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA