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Ger40

EURUSD - reopening of the Nord Stream 1 - a major vol event?Talk of an unfolding energy crisis in Europe is well known, but we now come to a more defining and almost binary point in the proceedings – one EUR, commodity and EU equity traders should be aware of as a major event risk. On 21 July, the Russians will need to make the call to resume the flow of natural gas (NG) through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – the pipeline, which supplies c.10% of Europe’s consumption was closed this week for maintenance and is due to re-open on 21 July – or at least that is the plan. Supply through the pipeline that transports NG from Russia to Germany has fallen some 60% since June, due to a mix of sanctions and because a key turbine used to pump the gas was removed and sent back to Canada for maintenance and has remained there due to global sanctions. The Europeans, notably, the Germans and Italians, are concerned the Russians may use the unavailability of the turbine as a pawn to halt the restarting of flow on 21 July. Various news wires have suggested the Canadians, under some pressure from Germany, have agreed to export the turbine back to Germany, but Gazprom has suggested they’ve not yet seen any documents providing evidence the turbine will be allowed to return. Naturally, the concern is if Russia does not restart the flow, we could see European NG inventories fast depleted, and any hope they could build them through the July to September period, and ahead of the winter, reduced. Talk of gas rationing is certainly elevated and it could significantly impact EU inflation and lower growth. It would make the job of the ECB, which is largely expected to hike rates by 25bp on 21 September, far more challenging. The Europeans would look to the LNG market as an alternative, but that market is already very tight, with sizeable demand out of Asia. Current inventory levels are manageable and can supply European demands through the winter period, but much now relies on the future flow from Russia. Russia seemingly holds the cards and will be acutely aware that if they don’t restart the flow then EU NG prices could push from current levels of E180 per MWh and above E200 MWh. In a world where most commodities are trending lower, EU NG prices are appreciating rapidly and with falling growth and consumer sentiment, this is a toxic mix for Europe. While we can look at relative excepted interest rate settings, terms of trade or other traditional metrics that showcase the relative attractiveness as an investment destination – the simple fact is that EURUSD and EU NG prices are incredibly negative correlated and seem to have the strongest statistical relationship. The 21-day rolling correlation between the two variables is -0.88. Taking that into account, it almost seems binary that EURUSD will move in anticipation of the outcome of Russia’s decision on 21 July. We can argue that EURUSD is already pricing in a large degree that Nord Stream 1 won't restart immediately, so that needs to be considered. Of course, in the near-term, the pair will move on other factors but it’s time to put the 21 July and Russia's call on flow on the radar, because FX traders will be watching closely and reacting to headlines – any view that the flow will resume, even at a lower rate than before the recent halt, could lead to relief that Germany (and other nations) may not have to ration gas through the winter period, in turn, driving a market short of EURUSD into 1.0150/1.0200 and pushing the GER40 higher. Of course, if they hold off then it could set a new leg lower in EU assets. An event risk to put on the radar.
Long
by Pepperstone
DAX 4 hour : dax can crash to 12500 area dax break its important trendline , so we advice sell near 13720 gap sl=13866 and buylimit near 12500 (red fibo161%) note = for inter buy or sell , wait OK verfy come = clear pinbar in 1hour 4hour or daily or in 5min chart , price break last trend line if you have old buy ( trade dax witout SL =100% margin call) put hedge sellstop in low and hedge (sellimit) it in 13700 after close , back to demo practice on eat SL and stand on fix low size wish you win , stable win , dont fear from eat SL , eat 50% SL(+ stand low size) is base of this game
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by ramin_trader2006
DAX made a major bullish break-out.DAX is now trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the third straight session with the 1W RSI at its highest level since late January. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (14800) is just below the 14950 Resistance formed by the March 29 High. That is a short-term target, buying after that can be justified only by a 1D candle close above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), in which case we will look for a complete gap closing at 16275. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by TradingShot
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