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Ger40

2024-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Globex was the low of the day and bulls just bought relentlessly since the EU open. 3 doji bear bars on the 1h chart today will make follow through likely but we are again at the bear trend line in this big triangle and that line held 4 times now. Betting on a breakout is a losing strategy. Wait for it to happen and follow the market. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anywhere. Watch higher time frames because they left no doubt today. I made that mistake and could not get myself into longs. Bad trading on my end.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - SP500 and Nasdaq had bull trends from the open and almost went up in one straight line on higher time frames. Both produced lower highs but given the strength of today, we can expect some follow through tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to reverse here and keep the lower highs, there is no reason why we can’t reverse to the lows of the week again. Market is all still inside their trading ranges and most breakout attempts fail. Commodities - Gold is again not worthy to be written about. Oil touched the bear trend line today on relentless buying but market gave back around 150 points afterwards. All of my bullish targets are met here and market could very well begin forming a top here before trading lower again. Bitcoin turned exactly where it had to and where my painting showed it would. There is a tiny bull trend line around 61500 and if that is broken, we will see 58000 or lower again. For the slight possibility that bulls turn this around again and stay inside the bull channel, they would have to break the bear trend line above 63000, which would then open up the road to 65000 again but I think this is very low probability. dax comment: 18300 is the most important price for dax for many days now. Today we sold off but market grinded higher to the 50% pb and that is around 18300. We have a decent bear channel which could hold and a third leg down would bring us to 18000 again. It’s still a trading range and a bigger third leg is lower probability. Markets usually have two legs inside ranges, so we could turn up from here to 18500 again. Neutral is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls need to break outside of the bear expanding triangle and their first target above is today’s open pricea t 18419. If they could do that, they will probably get to 18500 again. For now I think bulls are not good and they don’t have many arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 18180. bear case: Strong selling by the bears since EU open and market could not trade above the 1h ema the whole day. They want follow through tomorrow and keep the bear expanding triangle alive. Their targets below are 18100 which is where the bigger triangle bull trend line is. I don’t see them breaking it but if they do, obvious target below is 18000. Invalidation is above 18400. short term: Neutral between 18300 - 18370. Bearish below and bullish above (if bulls can break outside of the exp triangle). medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Short since Globex or from the EU open. Low of last week was 18221 so a good place to look to take profits or exit shorts. Market turned at 18190.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Funny thing for me is the fact that ath to June high is about 200 points, June to July high now is about 200 and low of the week was 200 points below that. Markets eh. 4h chart tells it the best I think. Market touched the big bear trend line from ath and was rejected heavily. Bulls have going for them that the higher lows getting higher and the trend lines steeper. Means we are forming multiple triangles, which confirms the obvious trading range. Breakout this week. Buckle. Up. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 - 18632 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but every high is sold big time. Only questions imo is, when will they give up? By not with every 1h bar it get’s more obvious that this bull trend is on it’s last legs and if you bought longer term above 18000, you are not happy with the bear trend line. Higher high above 18600 was unexpected somewhat but turned where it had to. Bulls need a strong daily close above 18600 to make bears nervous. I expect another try at 18600 tomorrow or Wednesday. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Bears trapped bulls buying above 18500 but the sell off afterwards was not deep enough to make a good bear case out of this. Bears need start making lower lows and closing the bull gap to 18400 with a bear bar closing on its low. Invalidation is above 18632 or a 1h close above the bear trend line. short term: Neutral but if bulls manage to get a 1h close above the bear trend line, it could go much higher much faster. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Best trade was shorting against the bear trend line 18600.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX to find support market price?DE30EUR - 24h expiry Our bespoke resistance of 18366 has been clearly broken. Previous resistance at 18325 now becomes support. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. The primary trend remains bullish. Price action continues to trade around significant highs. We look to Buy at 18325 (stop at 18215) Our profit targets will be 18565 and 18635 Resistance: 18446 / 18500 / 18600 Support: 18325 / 18200 / 18100 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
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OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Thief_Trader
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Day and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: comment: Sell vacuum theory was spot on. Bears printed 2 big good looking bars right to huge support and got no follow through. Bulls used it to trade back at least to the daily ema and 2/3 of the move. Huge price level around 18400/18450 with the ema. Bulls want above to test upper expanding triangle around 18600 and bears want a bigger second leg down to 17600. Both completely valid arguments and I will wait for a clear breakout before following. comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 17600 / 18500 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18500 to retest the other bear trend lines above. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Until bears can print consecutive bear bars below 18000, this market is still in BTFD mode and won’t go down further. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18550. outlook last week: “ short term: Neutral again. Need to see a clear winner here at the daily 20ema for the next direction.“ → Last Sunday we traded 18367 and now we are at 18417. High of the week was 18542 and the low was 18221 so my outlook was spot on. short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: No big move caught. Will look for follow through selling on Monday and would swing a position then. Chart update: Adjusted bear wave series to match the current sideways movement.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
5
2024-06-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Bit Groundhogs Day much. Another small green day for the bulls and again, all markets stayed inside their ranges. Triangles live on. Atrocious to trade if you don’t like to scale in with wide stops. Markets are clearly in breakout mode and tomorrow could be the day imo. My base assumption for sp500 and nq is another test of the ath before a much deeper pullback. Commodities Gold and Oil had a 1% up day but are still inside their given trading ranges. Oil made a perfect retest of the tight bull channel and 82 could still be bigger resistance. Bulls need a strong break above to convince me to buy it. If you look at a 1h tf, it’s a big trading range with lot’s of bigger bars with prominent tails. Not easy to trade. Gold produced a big bounce that will probably get a second leg up. Bulls defended 2300, which was important. Daily ema is right above at 2340. If bulls trade above it, 2360 would be my next target. dax comment: Barbwire (tails above and below bars and mostly doji’s) - horrible to trade. Market still not above the daily ema and a small inside bar on the daily, compared to previous days. High chance tomorrow will see a breakout above 18500 or below 18200. Middle of this range 18381 is still the most important price on the chart currently. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18550 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but not higher highs. Market is in breakout mode. Wait for a breakout - retest and then a good signal in the direction before you enter. Many Good signals at the extremes turn out to be traps in trading ranges. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears getting weaker because they can not make lower lows. Will found out tomorrow if they want to trap eager bulls above 18500. No deeper analysis currently. Just patience needed. Invalidation is above 18550. short term: As neutral as it gets. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. —unchanged.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX Medium-term buy opportunity.Last time we looked at DAX (FDAX1!) it gave us another successful sell signal (May 17) at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 9-month Channel Up: This time it is issuing a medium-term buy signal as after reaching the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 6-month Channel Up, while hitting and holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as Support, it is sustaining an upward consolidation. The last Higher Lows was also priced after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and supported by the 1D MA100 and the only confirmation left to form an identical pattern with that is for the 1D RSI to complete a Bullish Cross. As you can see, that has historically been a very reliable buy signal. Our Target is 19300, which is marginally lower than the previous +8.80% Bullish Leg, but almost exactly on the Internal Higher Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Pullbacks as expected. Markets are looking for the fair price and that’s why we get big down, big up. Slightly favoring the bulls to continue higher but just slightly. I wait for a breakout tomorrow. Bitcoin had a bullish day but look at the daily chart. It’s a small bull inside bar. Bulls fighting for their life’s to stay above 60000. I expect bears to try again for 60k this week. It was also a perfect retest of the broken lower bear trend line around 62000. Commodities pulled back again. Gold at the lows of this trading range and bears would need much bigger selling pressure to break it. Oil broke out of the bull channel and that is not good for the bulls. They now need to hold it above 80 or we will trade back down to 77.5ish. dax comment: Another day another doji after the US session. EU session closed 10 points below where it opened. Market also formed a perfect wedge and I expect this to break down to 18300 again. 18300 is currently my most important price for the dax and if bulls fail to defend, it’s night night for them. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls prevented a flush below 18200 today but the buying was weak at best. They need stronger bull bars and trade back above 18440. I don’t have many arguments for them tbh, because all time frames look pretty bearish or at least neutral (daily tf). Above 18450, we will see 18500+ again. Invalidation is below 18250. bear case: Bears sold off very strongly before the EU open and market struggled to get back up again. On the daily it’s a decent head & shoulders pattern, which would bring us right back to 17963 to the freaking tick. So the odds heavily favor the bears if the wedge breaks below 18350. Invalidation is above 18440. short term: Neutral between 18350-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting bar 24 one tick below bar 23. That was a perfect retest of the bull channel we broke out of yesterday and market then sold off for 183 points.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - No good news for the stock indexes. Dax and DJI closed green but dax ended US session still below the daily ema. Dow was rejected at the 40k mark, which was to be expected. Bulls will probably try that again tomorrow. SP500 and Nasdaq pulled back some more and bears finally closed a bear bar at the lows. In the overall scheme of things it’s just a minor pullback from a climactic blow off top. I have zero confidence in the bears that they can prevent the bulls from retesting the highs soon. Commodities were also uneventful. Oil bulls still doing their thing and keeping it in the bull channel, as I foretold in my weekly post. Gold printed a bull doji which keeps the market above the small bull support line on the daily chart but below the daily ema. More sideways price action expected for Gold. Will do a Bitcoin update tomorrow morning. Want to see if they sell it again hard in the Asia session. dax comment: Bulls tried and failed at 18500 and US session closed below 18400. Not looking good for the bulls currently. Doji on the daily, so I expect more sideways price action tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls traded above 18500 and the EU session closed above it. The US session pulled it back below 18400, so it’s fair to say that we will see more choppy price action tomorrow. Bulls are still favored to retest above 18500 tomorrow, where their fate will be decided. If they fail again, we will go back to 18000 and if they break above, 18600 comes fast. The bull channel is still valid but Globex could trade sideways out of it. Invalidation is below 18300. bear case: Bears kept the market around last weeks close in the US session and they want to test back down to 18300. I have no opinion if we see 18300 or 18500 first tomorrow but I do think we will hit both. 18300 is also a 50% pullback from this recent rally. Invalidation is above 18540. short term: Neutral between 18380-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex was bullish since bar 4 and saw an acceleration on bar 22+23. 23 was your entry bar for longs. If you weren’t, bar 29 with the open was strong enough so buy one tick on the follow through bar 30. Bar 67 was a huge bear surprise. Was 66 a reasonable short entry? You can but you would have shorted in a bull trend right at the 1h 20ema. You can take it since bar 66 was a decent signal bar but certainly not a trade of the day.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong. comment: Sell vacuum theory was spot on. Bears printed 2 big good looking bars right to huge support and got no follow through. Bulls used it to trade back at least to the daily ema and 2/3 of the move. Huge price level around 18400/18450 with the ema. Bulls want above to test upper expanding triangle around 18600 and bears want a bigger second leg down to 17600. Both completely valid arguments and I will wait for a clear breakout before following. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 17600 / 18500 bull case: Bulls already had 2 pushes up in this pullback and they want a third one to around 18600. Their first target is a 1h close above the daily ema 18430. Invalidation is below 18260. bear case: I do think bears last chance here at the daily ema or they risk another bull leg to 18600. I think the odds are 50/50 for either side on Monday/Tuesday. Bears see this as a higher pullback in the new steeper bear trend that started 2023-06-13 with the two big bear bars. If they fail, market will spend more time in the range 18000-18600. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18460. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it. So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral.” → Last Sunday we traded 18016 and now we are at 18367. High of the week was 18448 so that outlook was as good as it gets. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral again. Need to see a clear winner here at the daily 20ema for the next direction. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: None but will look for weakness on Monday/Tuesday for another big leg down. Sp500 and Nasdaq have to also be weak for that. Chart update: No bigger updates on my chart. Green two legged correction (ABC) was spot on and is still valid.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes had their expected trading range price action today. Mostly what happens after huge days. Markets are in balance here, which is good for the bulls. Commodities also all green today. Oil is grinding to 81/82 while Gold is moving sideways under the daily 20ema. I expect Oil to pull back soon and my preferred path for Gold is a break below the triangle and 2300 for another big leg down. dax comment: Well, what did we learn today? Not much tbh. It’s still a bear flag and bears keeping it below 18200, which is bearish. My target was at least 18300 for the bulls. Daily ema is at 18450 and that’s also where the bull trend line is for a retest of the breakout. All good targets above but for now, bears are in full control. Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. You won’t find many new info’s below compared to yesterday. current market cycle: probably bear trend if the pullback stays under 18300/18360 key levels: 18000 - 18400 bull case: Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. Not much more magic to it. If we trade below 18080, we test 18000 again. Invalidation is below 18080. bear case: Bears are finding acceptance below 18200, which is very bearish. They are in full control and probably letting the daily ema come closer to attract new bears for another leg below 18000. Invalidation is above 18360. short term: neutral. Market is in balance here until breakout above 18200 or below 18080 medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Yeah good question. So the open of the week was 18098 and y close was 18084. Good support area for longs. So buying the double bottom bar 33 + 49 was reasonable. Short from the open was also good because it was too strong to not get short and the upper bull channel line held.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC. comment: Bears finally did it. They broke to the downside when the higher probability trade was bullish. They actually broke below the expanding triangle which held for 4 weeks and sliced through the bull trend line that began 2022-10-03. For the dax which made 60.69% in that time, to just slice through that line, is something unusual to say the least. Is it now time to get uber bearish? I don’t think so. News outlets will tell you it’s because of eurozone fear and elections and blablabla. We are 5% from the ath. That’s a small pull-back to the neckline and the big 18000 support. Entering new shorts down here is as bad of a trade as you can come up with. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. key levels: small range 17600 / 18400 bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong. Invalidation is below 17550. bear case: Big bear surprise on Thursday and Friday. The bull bar on Wednesday was strong enough in an overall max bullish market to break to the upside. They managed to break below two support trend lines. Now the important questions is, was this just a sell vacuum test to find new buyers or are we actually in a decent down turn to below 17000? No one knows. We are right an my neckline 18000 and last time we got here, we reversed up for a new ath. You simply can’t get bearish at these lows when they have been big support the last time. Could you hold onto existing shorts from above 18100 and see if we sell further to retest 17600? Absolutely. If the momentum is there again next week, that’s a reasonable target to the downside. I do think if bears can not hold it below 18160, they give up for a bigger pullback to at least 18300 and there it’s do or die for the bulls again. Invalidation is a daily close above 18300. outlook last week: “Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.” → Last Sunday we traded 18572 and now we are at 18016. Bad bullish outlook but I gave you the clear warning that if bears would get a good daily close below 18400, I’d go big on shorts for 18000 and that’s exactly what we hit. short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it. So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it and call it in my tradingroom? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: Caught a big swing for 300 points down to 18000 as I wrote in my last weeks outlook. Chart update: Two paths ahead, bullish one is favored when bears step aside here at 18000 and bulls build buying pressure. If green path plays out, I expect this to be the right shoulder and that would be a decent place to sell everything (yes, your dog and granny too) to short this to freaking hell.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes pulled-back as expected and closed mostly where they opened the us session. Dax showed strong weakness again with a reversal to new lows. Tomorrow another uber bullish day at least for sp500 and nasdaq is expected, since bulls want to close this week at the highs, creating another big buy signal going into next week. Nasdaq closing the week above 20000 would be something. Commodities continued with their down trends. Oil confirmed the reversal at the upper bear channel and Gold also sold off for 30 points but found support at the 2320 area again. More sideways movement expected here. dax comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Every day, same story, bulls try to reverse it and bears just relentlessly selling every rip. Makes you wonder how many bulls will continue to do, before they give up. It’s fitting, that we almost exactly closed where the big bull trend line from January and the lower expanding triangle trend line crossed. Here it’s big decision time for the next impulse. Bears are in their 4th red week and still have not dropped below the big bull trend week from early May. Something you do not see that much on a chart. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18700 bull case: Absolutely nothing for the bulls today. They had their try yesterday and fumbled the ball again big time. Bears just crushed them right from EU open to close 350 points lower. They only thing I have for the bulls is the big bull trend line we are at. If they can not stay above it, this bull trend is finally over. So it’s do or die for bulls over the next days. If they can produce buying pressure again, it would be fitting that this week closes as a red doji right under 18477ish. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears crushed the bulls again today. They had an amazing setup to break above the expanding triangle and go for the highs again but I think this market is done with the bullishness and we have seen the last of 18000, once we drop below again. More probable is that this market moves sideways for many more weeks between 18000 - 19000 before a catalyst turns everyone and their dog bearish again. Bears need to drop below 18200 with force. Invalidation is above 18660. short term: I would not long anything until bulls trade back above the 1h ema again but shorting down here is suicide as well, unless bears just melt through 18200. Most likely outcome tomorrow is sideways for dax between 18240 - 18450. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just short anywhere and go away. Pure weakness since Globex and EU open just sold everything. The open price was the high of the eu session, to the tick. Happens handful of times a year.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Bulls printed a big bullish bar closing at it’s high today, right above the daily ema. Today was bullish enough to expect another leg up to at least 18700/18800. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18300 - 18800 bull case: Globex made the low of the day and bulls actually stayed below 18500 but the CPI print lifted everything up, so they got their spike to 18670. Bulls want at least to touch the upper bear trend line around 18750 tomorrow. 1h 20ema should be support. Invalidation is below 18550. bear case: Bears kept it below 18500 which was decent but CPI made them give up. I do think they won’t try to sell this until we get to the upper bear trend line and depending on how strong we move up there, they might not step in until 18800. Invalidation is above 18700. short term: If we stay above 18600, it’s max bullishness, until bears get below the 1h 20ema. Below 18500 it get’s bearish again. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Bull trend since Globex. Not a single 1h bar close below the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Looking at the 1h chart, its a broad bear channel with lower highs and lower lows but the lows are 66 points Friday to Monday and 84 points from Monday to Tuesday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18300 - 18600 bull case: Bulls are struggling to keep the market above the 1h 20ema but they make bears cover at lower lows. I do not have any opinion on tomorrows direction but if bulls interpret US CPI and FOMC as bullish, I can’t see dax staying down here. Bulls want to trade to the upper bear channel line before CPI and close the gap to today’s opening at 18545. R:R is on the bull side below 18400 since I don’t see bears starting to accelerate this selling unless we get a catalyst. Invalidation is below 18250. bear case: Bears keep on selling around 18500 and covering on new lows. Unless we get a bigger catalyst, dax won’t move much. Above 18000 everything is bullish and that’s why bears cover at new lows, they are scalping. Bears hope for some hot US CPI numbers and get the bigger second leg down to 1800 and lower. Invalidation is above 18600. short term: Bullish for gap close 18545 and I will be flat going into the news releases. So it has to happen early tomorrow. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade : None trade of the day: Bear trend from the open and we had 8 consecutive bear bars on the 15m chart.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
GER40 the trend is still Bullish**Monthly Chart** Last month candle dropped lower after creating a record high around 18568.8 level. This drop was due to a large selloff around the record high. However, this month the price continued higher and created a new record high just shy of 19000 level which indicates continues of the bullish long-term directional bias. **Weekly Chart** Last two weeks candles closed as dojis which shows a loss of momentum around the high. It will require a large liquidity to push the price higher. Therefore, any retracement or correction will encourage buyers to continue the move. **Daily Chart** There are two scenarios on the daily chart, GER40 price might continue higher without retracements and bush higher before changing the trend or the price will have a deeper retracement and then bush higher and grap the liquidity that formed above the new record high. Either way, I am only interested in buying the retracement. The direction is still bullish and there is no indication yet to move lower.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by PropSignals
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Bears managed to print a lower low below 18400 but bulls bought it as expected. The recent bear channel is broken and we are in a new bull channel. Trading range price action and you should only buy pull-backs and fade new highs or lows. US session closed it right at Globex high. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 - 18600 bull case: Bulls kept the bullish gap on my daily chart alive and well. They are moving up to 18600 again, where I expect more sellers than buyers. If bulls manage to break above, we will get 18700 next. They are also trading above the 15m and 1h ema, so they are in full control here. In my weekly post from yesterday I was in favor of the bulls and I hope you profited from it. Invalidation is below 18383. bear case: Bears tried again with a lower low but not enough bears are willing to short new lows and that’s why market is in balance and we move up and down. Bears want to keep this below 18600 or risk stronger leg to 18700. 18585 is the close of last week, which i expect will be hit. Invalidation is above 18700ish. short term: Bulls are moving this up again. If they can get it above 18600, I favor 18700 next. If 18600 is resistance, we will probably see 18450 or lower again. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long the double bottom bar 28 + 37 on a stop one tick above bar 37, was good for 70 points. Bar 54 + 55 were also strong enough bars to consider new longs, if you covered before.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Price action continues to trade around significant highs. The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment. Support is located at 18420 and should stem dips to this area. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. We look to Buy at 18425 (stop at 18325) 2,5RR Our profit targets will be 18675 and 18745 Resistance: 18540 / 18605 / 18700 Support: 18486 / 18421 / 18361 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
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OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Thief_Trader