#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment : Above pretty much described exactly what happened last week and for now all my bearish targets are met. I still expect another test of the lows. These tests can be higher,lower or pretty much the same. You never ever know in advance and you have to trade it as it comes. After that retest we will likely see another pullback to the 20ema or previous pullback highs (right now 17862) and more sideways movement inside the current range. It’s always an obvious pattern that we get another strong leg in the trend direction, when the daily 20ema is close enough or we hit it 1-3 times. Going into next week I am absolutely neutral and I think 17700-17900 is a dead zone for trading. Want to see strong momentum in either direction for me to scalp.
comment: Breaking above the wedge bear flag after a -8% move is a low probability event but that’s what happened. Bulls are under the most recent bear trend line starting mid July and there is no reason why this should hold when all other technical resistance prices did not hold in the last 2 weeks. It sure looks like a cup where the handle is missing but after such wild moves, I will only ever be neutral and take the market hour by hour.
current market cycle: Big nope of that bear trend take last week. Trading range price action with a big range.
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Last Sunday I wrote about mostly overlapping bars for the bulls and since Thursday they left no doubt that this was not the start of the bear trend. Huge bull breakout above the previous bear gap to 18200 and they are not right at the minor bear trend line from mid July. If bulls are really strong, they can get a third push up and maybe a measured move from Thu/Fri which would bring us to 18800ish. The buying is climactic though and a pullback is expected over the next 1-2 days. Best for bulls would be if they would stay above 18000 and the daily ema/bull trend line.
Invalidation is below 17900.
bear case: 18000 was my target last week where we should reverse at latest and bulls just melted through it to 18400. Most traders knew the selling down to 17100 was climactic and a pullback was expected but most markets almost reversed all of it and dax is also on it’s way. Where does this leave the bears? Humbled to say the least. They are focussing on the two bear trend lines above us at 18430 and the big one from the ath at 18650. So my preferred path forward would look like the drawn bullish 5 wave series where we can expect some pullback over the next 1-2 days and a potential W5 to 18650 or higher but it is very possible that we stay below 18500 and trade back down.
Invalidation is above 18450.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode. Pullback has two sided trading and I think a test below 17500 comes before 18000 but after a low, we should see another try from the bulls to print 18000 again or touch the daily 20ema. At which I will load up on shorts again, if we see bear strength.
→ Well, at least I wrote multiple times that a pullback could get to 18000 but since the bulls were just too strong on Thursday, I did not look for shorts as written last Sunday. Part of my outlook was ok but overall bearish reading was obviously as wrong as can be.
short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion.
medium-long term: Bearishness from the last weeks was wrong. Need to see price action this and maybe the week after to take another shot of an medium term outlook. Long term is still maximum bearishness but that does not help with trading because an early trade is a wrong trade.
current swing trade: Nope.
chart update: Removed the bear gap, wedge bear flag and added a potential 5 wave series and an alternative two legged correction.
