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Ger40

2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - 3 clear legs down and today’s selling could not reach the lower bear trend line, which showed weakness by the bears. We are close enough to the daily 20ema to expect bulls scaling into longs and hoping for a retest of 19400/19500 or higher. 1h 20ema held today too but I expect it to be broken tomorrow. Below 19200, 19000 will come fast. comment: Not happy with the currently drawn bear channel, since market has only 1 touch of the upper trend line. I expect sideways to up movement tomorrow until we touch it and there bears have to defend it for another try at 19200. I am neutral around 19300 and can’t see bears doing another strong leg down tomorrow. current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 19000, minor bull trend line got hit today) key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls bought the minor bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and probably also the daily 20ema which is only 200 points lower. It was also the August high 19217. Bulls want to make 19200 support that was previously resistance before market broke strongly above it for a new ath. Bulls know that this is the first pullback in an otherwise very strong bull trend and high 1 are almost never working strongly for bears. Bulls see this as a pullback and scaling into longs, that is why we have tails below the prior 2 daily bars. Next they want to break above the 1h 20ema and retest today’s high 19428 - above that price comes 19500 probably quick because I expect many bears to have their stops there. Invalidation is below 19190. bear case: Bears had 3 legs down and today’s leg was weaker than before. Not good for them. They need to defend the 1h ema or risk a test of 19428. They do not have many arguments besides trading below the 1h ema. We are still above the daily ema and both bull trend lines. Either bears show strength tomorrow or bulls will take control again. Don’t. Short. The. Hole. Invalidation is above 19430. short term: Neutral around 19300. Bullish above 19430 and bearish only below big bear bars below 19200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Shorting 1h 20ema again. The selling down to 19200 was weirdly strong.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows. dax futures comment: Big breakout, no more guessing about the direction. Now it’s a matter of how high can it get? It’s obviously a short squeeze and a stupid rally based on nothing but bear pain. Does that help you trading? No. There are several measured move targets and the next best one I have is 19600. Does not mean we have to get there but it also does not mean we can not hit 20000. Yes. 20000. Why are you still doubting this madness? current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 19000 - 19600 bull case: Bulls did it again. Most of the move happened during Globex and probably left many traders out of the market and had them chasing a second leg all day, which they got. Bulls did 4 clear legs up and that should be enough for now. Bulls kept buying the 15m 20ema all day and they also closed the EU and US session at their respective highs. You have absolutely zero reason to assume the highs are in. Look for pullbacks to get long until bulls clearly have no interest in higher prices. Invalidation is below 19250. bear case: Bears are in a world of pain. Every macro schmackro indicator points to a German recession and the auto industry is giving out warnings on earnings. Nothing makes sense from a “logical” standpoint. Welcome to trading. The sooner you realize this is a giant casino, the quicker you learn to let go and don’t care about this stuff. You have to trade your strategy and manage risk. Bears have nothing going for them and would need to get below 19250 before they have any case. Can this be a giant bull trap and we reverse strongly over the next 1-5 days? Everything is possible. Can you short this? Only if you want your account to be blown. Invalidation is above 19500. short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 19250. 19600 is my next best target before we can talk about the most insane of all targets, 20000. medium-long term: Can not hold any bearish outlook on this breakout. Need to see the next pullback to calculate new targets. current swing trade: None trade of the day: The buying during Globex did not stop and the 15m 20ema held all day. Not one pullback dropped below the previous one. Just a very strong bull trend day and you can buy anywhere and make money if you hold. Sounds easier than it is, I know.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one of, if not the biggest asset bubble in history. comment: Market continues to contract. Many lines on my chart but all of them are valid until broken. Will see a bigger breakout tomorrow and or Friday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 19200 bull case: Bulls are somewhat very slightly favored since we are making higher highs and higher lows but barely. Not much changed since last Thursday. We are near the ath and market refuses to go down. Structure on the daily chart has potential for a breakout above. Wait for it to happen or scalp small. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears try but once market begins to stall they are out. Their only objective is to keep the market below the ath or near it. Not much more to say until they print something below 19000 again. Everything below 18800 would be amazing for the bears and would probably end this bull move. Invalidation is above 19250. short term: Neutral and waiting for the breakout. Bulls want above 19250 (roughly 19100 on xetra) and bears below 18800. Everything in between is a dead zone where market is in balance. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 19000 or shorting near 19100. Bear trend line from 19195 was decent to short.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes. We have learned nothing today and you can move on now. dax futures comment: Dax was the anomaly today and surprised me with the strong close. Market refused to go down while most others chopped in tight ranges. The 50% pb from Friday’s selling is 19030 and we closed at 19000. Anything above 19100 would be very bullish but I favor the bears to retest at least 18900 tomorrow. That outlook is somewhat low probability until bears can break outside of the current bull channel on the 15m tf. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18800 - 19200 bull case: Market refused to go down after the EU open reversal and we had a spike and channel bull trend day. As long as the bull channel is alive, bulls are fine. Their targets above are 19100 and then 19200 obviously. Given the atrocious pmi data earlier today, this rally feels off and is likely a squeeze. Does that help with trading? No. Can go much higher than anyone expects but right now anything above 19100 would surprise me, again. Invalidation is below 18970. bear case: Bears tried a couple of times today but were not strong enough to even retest the open price after we went above 18980 during the EU session. We are near the 50% pb and it’s possible that they come around tomorrow and try to get down to 18800 but as of now they don’t have good arguments. Their first target is to make the market go sideways and break out of the bull channel. Then they need a strong close below 19000. On the daily chart nothing changed after today. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: Neutral and bearish once the bull channel is broken for at least a retest of 18900. Bullish above 19100 for 19200 or higher. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 18850 was profitable on Friday and so today. Bar 29 was a perfect signal bar and 30 the entry bar. Stop 1 tick below the signal bar and that was good for 200+ points. I was too busy looking for shorts that I did not take many good long setups. Bad trading on my part.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
DAX continues to trade around the all-time highs.DE30EUR - 24h expiry Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 19050. Our short term bias remains positive. 50 4hour EMA is at 18663. A Morning Doji Star formation has been posted at the low. We look to Buy at 18735 (stop at 18655) Our profit targets will be 18935 and 18995 RR 2,5 Resistance: 18821 / 18900 / 19049 Support: 18800 / 18704 / 18600 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: New ath but market rejected it with -300+ points. Bulls are still inside nested bull wedges and a big bull channel on the weekly/monthly chart. I favor bulls as long as the current bull wedge is alive but we could test down to 18500 on Monday. Bulls should not let it get below 18400. Above 19000 I expect another ath and targets above are 19100/19200. Quote from last week: comment: Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week. comment : Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are slightly favored since we are inside nested bull wedges or a bigger broad bull channel, depending on how you want to draw it. Does it matter? No. We are also in a trading range inside the given key levels and that does not change how you trade the current patterns either. Bulls made a lower high last week and a higher high. As long as the lower high holds, bulls are favored for more upside. Should you buy 18720? It’s not unreasonable but Friday was quad witching and we closed at the low. I’d rather wait for bulls to come around on Monday before buying. We could touch the bull trend line around 18500/18600 before reversing but I do think we will retest at least 18900. My most insane upside target currently is 20900 but until we have a weekly close above 19400, it’s a waste of time thinking more than 2 minutes about it. Trade patterns that are valid and until they are clearly broken. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears rejected 19000 by 300 points again and the big questions is, will they get follow through selling on Monday and can they push below the bull trend line out of the bull wedge? I highly doubt that. It’s possible but unlikely. Market will probably spent more time inside the wedge before we break out by going sideways or below, once it’s contracted enough. Anything above 19100 would show great weakness by the bears and a possible giving up for 19300 or higher. On the weekly chart the highest weekly close was 18906 and bears need to keep it that way. Any weekly close above 19000 opens the door for higher prices. Invalidation is above 19100. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between. → Last Sunday we traded 18699 and now we are at 18720. High was 19044 and that outlook could not have been more perfect. Nailed the long above 18750 and the rejection above 19000. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. current swing trade : None chart update: Removed the bear gap and added the insane potential measured move to 20900. Don’t bet on that.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
DAX breaking above this Resistance can target 20000DAX hit yesterday Resistance 1 (the September 03 High) but got rejected and failed to close the candle above it. Naturally, the market is reacting with weakness today and so far a red 1D candle. As you realize, the key here is to close that candle above Resistance 1, which is what happened in the middle of the previous Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. After testing the Resistance at the time on January 29 2024, the index turned sideways for a few days, until it finally closed above it and started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg. All this time the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting, just as it did recently on September 06. If those conditions are met, we expect another run towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (where the April 01 Higher High was priced). Our Target is slightly below it at 20000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
2024-09-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Big news first. There is no reason why markets could not continue higher. Tis what I wrote yesterday. So you have been warned I guess. Indexes - Huge gap up and go on most markets during the Globex and EU session. Right now we are mostly trading between the 15m and 1h 20ema and that’s my absolute worst spot to trade. Markets held at the highs and closed there, so bulls have all the arguments on their side, yet tomorrow is Opex and those max bullish options probably won’t be green at the end of tomorrow. So now bullish outlook from me after today. dax futures comment: Another one. Gap up today and market kept going. 19000 (xetra) is a nice round number and we could stall here or reverse. Another higher target would be 19260 (big green bull trend line on the daily chart). This would also align with the futures ATH at 19204 while futures are trading around 30 points above xetra. Long story short, don’t sell this yet. After such a strong day you simply can not hold a bearish bias. current market cycle: broad bull channel but also a big trading range on the daily chart on futures key levels: 18800 - 19200 bull case: Bulls had an amazing day. Futures ath from May is 19204 and there is no reason we can not get it. Tomorrow is opex and those days are always special. Don’t get trapped tomorrow and only take AAA setups. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears gave up during the globex session. They would need a strong 1h close below 18900 and then a gap close to 18730 to have better arguments. On the 1h tf we are currently in the C of the two legged correction and right at the 1h 20ema. It’s a buy signal if bulls reverse and we could go sideways overnight. Don’t get trapped into taking those kind of bad shorts. Some bears argue that we are at the top of the trading range on the daily/weekly chart and at the top of the current bull channel on 1h chart. Is this enough to sell this? Not after such a strong day today. You need confirmation below the 1h ema. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: Neutral but mostly looking for longs until bears trade below 18900. Bulls are in full control but that does not mean I want to buy high in hopes of going higher. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Market held strongly above 18800 with many tries to get below. Bar 32 was a give up bar by the bears and a decent buy signal. You were then buying high in a trading range but the context was good enough to expect at least 18920 but market never looked back. 19040 was also clear resistance and shorting this price was profitable many times today.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
DAX: Aggressive uptrend for the rest of the year.DAX maintains a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.112, MACD = 108.800, ADX = 23.465) as it is extending a rebound aon the 1D MA50, after an August 5th rebound on the 1D MA200 as well. Successive holds of those levels suggest that the index has already started the new Bullish Wave of the 2022 Channel Up. We can target at least the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 20,250) as it was the level that priced the last HH. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by InvestingScope
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many new highs but also a deep pullback and we closed around the middle of the daily range. Are we smarter than yesterday? We know that bulls remain in control since we are trading above most higher tf ema but bears also sold off for 1% today on the sp500. I keep my neutral stance and wait for the FOMC debacle to be over with. No one knows where markets will go on either 25 or 50bps. Be more like Elsa, let it go. You don’t have to gamble away hard earned profits on max confused and undecided markets. dax futures comment: Bulls got above my given target 18750 in my weekly update but got rejected for almost 200 points. Market is still neutral imo and I don’t expect this to change until some hours after FOMC. Since the market is so confusing and no one knows where rates might go, we can expect traps before and after FOMC. I refuse to trade much tomorrow. current market cycle: big bull wedge on the daily tf and bull channel on the 1h tf key levels: 18600 - 18900 bull case: Bulls printed 18800 and this could have been it before FOMC. We are 270 points below the ath (xetra) and we could easily get there. That’s also the only target left for the bulls. As long as the bull channel holds, they are in control and favored for higher prices. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears reversed much of today’s gains and did so in a fast manner. Bulls still bought it again, like the previous week. Bears need to start making lower lows again or bulls continue to btfd. Bears first target is to get below 18600 which would also break the bull channel. If you look at the daily chart we have many tails above and below bars. Bulls are grinding higher but it can reverse quickly imo. 1h ema is pretty flat, so don’t get trapped selling low or buying high. Invalidation is above 18820. short term: Neutral. Only scalping small positions until we know how market thinks FOMC is to be interpreted. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex lows held and the long after the double bottom around 18680 was good. Also selling the second try by the bears when bulls failed at 18800 (double top) but it’s hard to be this flexible on bigger swings. If you took one of those, you probably had an amazing day.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
GER40 swing trade(UPDATE)Last week we were looking for a sell from 18500 with many technical confluences. We also had a 11 day straight bull run without any meaningful retracements. This is a continuation to the previous idea, as the price did not react from our level of interest and kept pushing higher. Currently waiting for 18800, which is the Weekly 0.786 fib level drawn from the all time high. We target 18500-18450 for our TP1. Will update next week. As always, trade safe and wait for confirmations before entering a trade. Fractals Trading Community, Mei
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by martinmei
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Neutral. Won’t be running into any more traps again. Both sides have reasonable arguments but bulls closed last week at the highs, so bulls are slightly favored. Best pattern currently is probably the big bull wedge we are in. Bulls want a retest of the ath 18990 and bears below 18000. Bullish above 18750 and bearish below 18200, neutral in between. Quote from last week: comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. comment : Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls did not do much on Monday and Tuesday but enough to make many bears take profits early and stall the market and bears were not having that, so they gave up. Bulls are favored if they get above 18750 but I think it’s very close to 50/50 if we make a new ath. Market is undecided to the max and we see many traps on any time frame. We are above the daily ema and the bull trend line from the wedge, so bulls are slightly favored. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears gave up on Thursday and do they want to fight it at 18700? I don’t think so. Thu + Fr was strong enough that we can expect a retest of the ath next week and there I expect stronger selling to happen again. Since we did not print 19000 so far, it’s an obvious magnet and market’s rarely touch those big round numbers and reverse from there. We will likely overshoot some before big bears come around. Make no mistake, this buying here is purely absolutely atrocious from any reasonable valuation level given many German macro indicators but that stuff will only destroy your account so let’s not go there. Market is overvalued and we will likely see 17000 again this year. Invalidation is above 18750. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. → Last Sunday we traded 18301 and now we are at 18699. Bears fumbled it on Wednesday and then quickly gave up. Bearish momentum was there on Tuesday but they barely made a new low. Anyhow, bad outlook. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Cut those shorts on Thursday and will try again around 19000 if bears come around. chart update: Added a bull wedge again and made the bear gap smaller.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
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PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Thief_Trader