2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes had their expected trading range price action today. Mostly what happens after huge days. Markets are in balance here, which is good for the bulls.
Commodities also all green today. Oil is grinding to 81/82 while Gold is moving sideways under the daily 20ema. I expect Oil to pull back soon and my preferred path for Gold is a break below the triangle and 2300 for another big leg down.
dax
comment: Well, what did we learn today? Not much tbh. It’s still a bear flag and bears keeping it below 18200, which is bearish. My target was at least 18300 for the bulls. Daily ema is at 18450 and that’s also where the bull trend line is for a retest of the breakout. All good targets above but for now, bears are in full control. Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. You won’t find many new info’s below compared to yesterday.
current market cycle: probably bear trend if the pullback stays under 18300/18360
key levels: 18000 - 18400
bull case: Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. Not much more magic to it. If we trade below 18080, we test 18000 again.
Invalidation is below 18080.
bear case: Bears are finding acceptance below 18200, which is very bearish. They are in full control and probably letting the daily ema come closer to attract new bears for another leg below 18000.
Invalidation is above 18360.
short term: neutral. Market is in balance here until breakout above 18200 or below 18080
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Yeah good question. So the open of the week was 18098 and y close was 18084. Good support area for longs. So buying the double bottom bar 33 + 49 was reasonable. Short from the open was also good because it was too strong to not get short and the upper bull channel line held.
Ger40
DAX40 - Range TradingDAX40 H4
We have started to form a short term range between 18200 price and 17900 price. Recent retest wick on the H4 to see resistance hold. We are yet to touch 17900 during such recent trade, but that's what we have our eyes on and alerts set for. Waiting patiently.
Additionally, we are going to set alerts for 18200 also, in the case we top out resistance price again. We can then look to sell from resistance price of 18200 down towards 17900.
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC.
comment: Bears finally did it. They broke to the downside when the higher probability trade was bullish. They actually broke below the expanding triangle which held for 4 weeks and sliced through the bull trend line that began 2022-10-03. For the dax which made 60.69% in that time, to just slice through that line, is something unusual to say the least. Is it now time to get uber bearish? I don’t think so. News outlets will tell you it’s because of eurozone fear and elections and blablabla. We are 5% from the ath. That’s a small pull-back to the neckline and the big 18000 support. Entering new shorts down here is as bad of a trade as you can come up with.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range.
key levels: small range 17600 / 18400
bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong.
Invalidation is below 17550.
bear case: Big bear surprise on Thursday and Friday. The bull bar on Wednesday was strong enough in an overall max bullish market to break to the upside. They managed to break below two support trend lines. Now the important questions is, was this just a sell vacuum test to find new buyers or are we actually in a decent down turn to below 17000? No one knows. We are right an my neckline 18000 and last time we got here, we reversed up for a new ath. You simply can’t get bearish at these lows when they have been big support the last time. Could you hold onto existing shorts from above 18100 and see if we sell further to retest 17600? Absolutely. If the momentum is there again next week, that’s a reasonable target to the downside. I do think if bears can not hold it below 18160, they give up for a bigger pullback to at least 18300 and there it’s do or die for the bulls again.
Invalidation is a daily close above 18300.
outlook last week: “Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18572 and now we are at 18016. Bad bullish outlook but I gave you the clear warning that if bears would get a good daily close below 18400, I’d go big on shorts for 18000 and that’s exactly what we hit.
short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it.
So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it and call it in my tradingroom? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again.
current swing trade: Caught a big swing for 300 points down to 18000 as I wrote in my last weeks outlook.
Chart update: Two paths ahead, bullish one is favored when bears step aside here at 18000 and bulls build buying pressure. If green path plays out, I expect this to be the right shoulder and that would be a decent place to sell everything (yes, your dog and granny too) to short this to freaking hell.
DAX (GER 40).... BULLISH!Price has traded through the Swing High with a strong close above.
Now, price has pulled back into a +FVG.
The Daily +FVG is overlapped by the Weekly +FVG, a strong confluence.
The expectation is for price to continue higher to the next recent swing high.
May profits be upon you.
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes pulled-back as expected and closed mostly where they opened the us session. Dax showed strong weakness again with a reversal to new lows. Tomorrow another uber bullish day at least for sp500 and nasdaq is expected, since bulls want to close this week at the highs, creating another big buy signal going into next week. Nasdaq closing the week above 20000 would be something.
Commodities continued with their down trends. Oil confirmed the reversal at the upper bear channel and Gold also sold off for 30 points but found support at the 2320 area again. More sideways movement expected here.
dax
comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Every day, same story, bulls try to reverse it and bears just relentlessly selling every rip. Makes you wonder how many bulls will continue to do, before they give up. It’s fitting, that we almost exactly closed where the big bull trend line from January and the lower expanding triangle trend line crossed. Here it’s big decision time for the next impulse. Bears are in their 4th red week and still have not dropped below the big bull trend week from early May. Something you do not see that much on a chart.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18700
bull case: Absolutely nothing for the bulls today. They had their try yesterday and fumbled the ball again big time. Bears just crushed them right from EU open to close 350 points lower. They only thing I have for the bulls is the big bull trend line we are at. If they can not stay above it, this bull trend is finally over. So it’s do or die for bulls over the next days. If they can produce buying pressure again, it would be fitting that this week closes as a red doji right under 18477ish.
Invalidation is below 18200.
bear case: Bears crushed the bulls again today. They had an amazing setup to break above the expanding triangle and go for the highs again but I think this market is done with the bullishness and we have seen the last of 18000, once we drop below again. More probable is that this market moves sideways for many more weeks between 18000 - 19000 before a catalyst turns everyone and their dog bearish again. Bears need to drop below 18200 with force.
Invalidation is above 18660.
short term: I would not long anything until bulls trade back above the 1h ema again but shorting down here is suicide as well, unless bears just melt through 18200. Most likely outcome tomorrow is sideways for dax between 18240 - 18450.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just short anywhere and go away. Pure weakness since Globex and EU open just sold everything. The open price was the high of the eu session, to the tick. Happens handful of times a year.
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Bulls printed a big bullish bar closing at it’s high today, right above the daily ema. Today was bullish enough to expect another leg up to at least 18700/18800.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18800
bull case: Globex made the low of the day and bulls actually stayed below 18500 but the CPI print lifted everything up, so they got their spike to 18670. Bulls want at least to touch the upper bear trend line around 18750 tomorrow. 1h 20ema should be support.
Invalidation is below 18550.
bear case: Bears kept it below 18500 which was decent but CPI made them give up. I do think they won’t try to sell this until we get to the upper bear trend line and depending on how strong we move up there, they might not step in until 18800.
Invalidation is above 18700.
short term: If we stay above 18600, it’s max bullishness, until bears get below the 1h 20ema. Below 18500 it get’s bearish again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bull trend since Globex. Not a single 1h bar close below the 1h 20ema.
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Looking at the 1h chart, its a broad bear channel with lower highs and lower lows but the lows are 66 points Friday to Monday and 84 points from Monday to Tuesday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18600
bull case: Bulls are struggling to keep the market above the 1h 20ema but they make bears cover at lower lows. I do not have any opinion on tomorrows direction but if bulls interpret US CPI and FOMC as bullish, I can’t see dax staying down here. Bulls want to trade to the upper bear channel line before CPI and close the gap to today’s opening at 18545. R:R is on the bull side below 18400 since I don’t see bears starting to accelerate this selling unless we get a catalyst.
Invalidation is below 18250.
bear case: Bears keep on selling around 18500 and covering on new lows. Unless we get a bigger catalyst, dax won’t move much. Above 18000 everything is bullish and that’s why bears cover at new lows, they are scalping. Bears hope for some hot US CPI numbers and get the bigger second leg down to 1800 and lower.
Invalidation is above 18600.
short term: Bullish for gap close 18545 and I will be flat going into the news releases. So it has to happen early tomorrow.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Bear trend from the open and we had 8 consecutive bear bars on the 15m chart.
GER40 the trend is still Bullish**Monthly Chart**
Last month candle dropped lower after creating a record high around 18568.8 level. This drop was due to a large selloff around the record high. However, this month the price continued higher and created a new record high just shy of 19000 level which indicates continues of the bullish long-term directional bias.
**Weekly Chart**
Last two weeks candles closed as dojis which shows a loss of momentum around the high. It will require a large liquidity to push the price higher. Therefore, any retracement or correction will encourage buyers to continue the move.
**Daily Chart**
There are two scenarios on the daily chart, GER40 price might continue higher without retracements and bush higher before changing the trend or the price will have a deeper retracement and then bush higher and grap the liquidity that formed above the new record high. Either way, I am only interested in buying the retracement. The direction is still bullish and there is no indication yet to move lower.
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Bears managed to print a lower low below 18400 but bulls bought it as expected. The recent bear channel is broken and we are in a new bull channel. Trading range price action and you should only buy pull-backs and fade new highs or lows. US session closed it right at Globex high.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18600
bull case: Bulls kept the bullish gap on my daily chart alive and well. They are moving up to 18600 again, where I expect more sellers than buyers. If bulls manage to break above, we will get 18700 next. They are also trading above the 15m and 1h ema, so they are in full control here.
In my weekly post from yesterday I was in favor of the bulls and I hope you profited from it.
Invalidation is below 18383.
bear case: Bears tried again with a lower low but not enough bears are willing to short new lows and that’s why market is in balance and we move up and down. Bears want to keep this below 18600 or risk stronger leg to 18700. 18585 is the close of last week, which i expect will be hit.
Invalidation is above 18700ish.
short term: Bulls are moving this up again. If they can get it above 18600, I favor 18700 next. If 18600 is resistance, we will probably see 18450 or lower again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long the double bottom bar 28 + 37 on a stop one tick above bar 37, was good for 70 points. Bar 54 + 55 were also strong enough bars to consider new longs, if you covered before.
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
Support is located at 18420 and should stem dips to this area.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 18425 (stop at 18325) 2,5RR
Our profit targets will be 18675 and 18745
Resistance: 18540 / 18605 / 18700
Support: 18486 / 18421 / 18361
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
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DAX continues to hold back bears.GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 18655 (stop at 18555)
Our profit targets will be 18905 and 18955
Resistance: 18762 / 18806 / 18928
Support: 18680 / 18586 / 18500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Another perfect sell opportunity emerges like the last one.DAX (FDAX1!) gave as an excellent sell opportunity last month (April 11, see chart below) that hit the 17700 Target and shortly after rebounded:
The index yet again flashes a sell signal as the price got rejected yesterday exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up. In symmetrical terms, this is similar to the Higher High rejection of May 19 2023, which pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1D MACD is also inside a similar Falling Wedge pattern and will confirm the sell signal once it makes a Bearish Cross. Our Target now is 18350.
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DAX40 - Short PotentialDAX40 H4
Something new added to the watchlist here as we see DAX40 index fund trading around ATH price. This ATH price also ties in nicely with our 18500 psychological price. A good area of confluence.
We have also extended in excess of 600 points to the upside, without any real corrective play. Eyes peeled for some price action exhaustion around this price.
DAX to find support at 50% retracement?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Buying continued from the 38.2% pullback level of 17870.
Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 18066 found buyers.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 18075 (stop at 17975)
Our profit targets will be 18325 and 18395
Resistance: 18240 / 18330 / 18400
Support: 18160 / 18016 / 17870
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Potential bullish bounceGER40 is falling towards a support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A bounce from this level could lead the price to fall to our take profit.
Entry: 17913.28
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss: 17612.74
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take profit: 18286.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
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DAX to find buyers at yesterday's Marabuzo?GER40 - 24h expiry
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 18065.
Short term bias has turned positive.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 18065 (stop at 17965)
Our profit targets will be 18315 and 18395
Resistance: 18234 / 18300 / 18400
Support: 18200 / 18100 / 18000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX making progress off of Friday lowThe DAX is showing relative strength following Friday's low. The hourly chart may be running out of puff, but that will bring support levels into focus.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
DAX, will this be the end of the bullish cycle wave?Hallo everyone,
markets are crazy lately and beside the fact, that Germany is in a recession period the DAX were climbing up for several ATHs in the last weeks. I think this should find an end very soon, as we are testing the ultimate resistance area formed by trend lines from ATH prices in the past.
Also my wave count is pointing to an fifth wave of a fifth wave.
18000 will be a psychological barrier I don't expect the price to go over easily and we are facing the 1,618 extension level from the last wave at around 17700.
I will work with several positions starting from 17700 up to 18000.