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Ger40

DAX: Market Top is being formed. DAX hit the HH trendline on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.185, MACD = 53.000, ADX = 25.248) but a Bearish Divergence RSI. The 1D CCI is repeating the May 19th-July 31st 2023 successive peak pattern on the HH that eventually corrected first to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA200 and then under the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently, a crossing under the 1D MA50 will be the ideal sell signal to target the S1 level (TP = 16,350). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by InvestingScope
1
DAX H4 | Potential bearish reversalDAX (GER40) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target. Entry: 17,037.75 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level Stop Loss: 17,087.40 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level Take Profit: 16,791.05 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:GER40Short
by VantageMarkets
1
DAX Will it drop at the top of the 1-year Channel Up?DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on the previous declines within the pattern, there are high probabilities of seeing a minimum of -6.50% pull-back. That gives us a Sell Target at 16000. The absolute bottom on the long-term based on the 2023 price action is the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which formed the market Lows of March 20 2023 and October 27 2023. If the index closes a 1D candle above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up, then we will drop the sell and buy the break-out instead, targeting 17600, which would complete a +20.90% rise from the October Low, symmetrical to the rise on the December 20 2022 Low. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. After such strong rallies, markets tends to form trading ranges instead of another trend in whatever direction. So today, we chopped back and forth. Which is bad for the bears because that means acceptance of higher prices. Only question is then, how high? Most indexes have obvious targets above, which i gave in my weekly outlook. I also said market is currently bullish and today further confirmed my thesis. dax Dax is inside a big triangle from the recent bull trend and the upper bear channel visible on the daily chart. Today was uneventful since we close 9 points above the open price. The tricky thing on a day like today is, that the 2 to 3 legged moves inside the range look strong with good looking signal bars that just turn around at support & resistance, tricking traders into believing a breakout is about to happen. That’s just something will learn to read with hard earned experience. Nothing else. short term: sideways to up medium-long term: down trade of the day: short from the open to globex gap close and test of fridays open and the long above bar 55 to todays open price. that could have been 150-200 points
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-01-18 - dax price action update Good Morning, i could see dax breaking out of this bull channel to rally upwards. I'd look only for longs here. Here is my recap from yesterday after hours to give more context: Let’s look at the 1h tf because today closed 10 points above the opening price. That tell’s you enough. Opex sold off 100 points to eu open and bulls could not get this above 16560. Bears tried multiple times to push this below 16500 but every attempt was bought. One side tries to push the market into a direction just so many times before they give up. This brings us to an adjusted big lower bear channel line so market is free to move up imo. We will trade sideways to up in the globex session which would bring the 1h 20ema closer or we can get above it. More reasons why we market could go up. Bar 10 + 16 today formed a double bottom and bar 16 + 19 could already have set the new bull channel upwards. If you look at the daily chart, you can clearly see 3 pushes down and an expanding triangle. Lows from 2023-12-18 + 2024-01-05 + 2024-01-17. Do i have a short term bear case? Not really, i think the odds that we break below that channel and close low are below 25%. short term: up medium-long term: down
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
GER 40 H1 / SHORT TRADE PERSPECTIVE GER INDEX 💶💲Hello Traders! This is my idea related to GER4 40. I see two resistance levels and I expect a bearish domination, taking into consideration the evolution of previous days, it looks very likely to go bearish. I will set two targets, the first resistance and the second resistance level. I'm very curious about the move of the GER index this week. Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by GoodTradeST
DAX The decline isn't over but MACD can give a timely buy.DAX (DE40) gave us an excellent sell signal last time we looked into it (December 14 2023, see chart below), as the 1D MACD Bearish Cross, was our sell signal: Our 16500 short-term target has already been hit, and we now shift our focus on the medium-term as it appears that this pull-back will most likely be extended to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least. It was a similar correction on December 13 2022, which after almost reaching the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level (as the currrent High), it got rejected back to the 1D MA50 on a -6.50% decline. As a result our sell target is now 16150 (1D MA50 contact) and we will buy again for the long-term only when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which was the case on January 03 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TradingShot
DAX to breakdown at overbought extremes?GER40 - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Current prices have reacted from a low of 16662, however, we expect further losses to follow. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17004. An Evening Doji Star formation has been posted at the high. A break of the recent low at 16662 should result in a further move lower. Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes. We look to Sell a break of 16658 (stop at 16758) Our profit targets will be 16418 and 16348 Resistance: 16793 / 16850 / 16950 Support: 16720 / 16662 / 16600 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
DAX continues to break into new all time highs.GER40 - 24h expiry Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 16823. There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end. Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 16715. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our outlook is bullish. We look to Buy at 16715 (stop at 16615) Our profit targets will be 16965 and 17025 Resistance: 16823 / 16900 / 17000 Support: 16767 / 16700 / 16650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: A week littered with landmines While we look ahead to the BoJ meeting (19 Dec) and keep a vigil on headlines from local press on potential policy tweaks, this week it's not hard to find tier-one catalysts and event risk for traders to navigate their exposures over. On the central bank side, we look for guidance from the Fed, the ECB, the BoE, Norges Bank and the SNB. For traders who focus on the higher beta LATAM FX - MXN and BRL - we get the Banxico and BCB meetings. We see preliminary PMIs in the US, UK, and EU, with the UK and Aus reporting employment data. The US CPI print gets close attention and after Friday’s NFP report this could have big implications on the pricing of a March cut from the Fed - at this point, I am inclined to fade current rate cut expectations, as it still feels like June is a more likely starting point for policy easing. However, a below consensus CPI print would clearly strengthen the case for sooner easing. US treasuries will again be influential in driving the USD and gold, and while the FOMC meeting and US CPI print will be a clear risk, so could the US Treasury Departments scheduled FWB:37B 10yr (12 Dec 05:00 AEDT) & $21b 30yr bond auctions. I am leaning long of USDs this week but would get greater confidence on a break of 104.31 in the DXY, and a further push towards 7.2400 in USDCNH. USDCHF looks to eye a move into 0.8900. I am still biased long of US equity indices, with the NAS100 getting good attention as it looks to break the consolidation highs. EU equity is where the momentum traders have focused attention, with the GER40 having closed higher in 8 of the past 10 sessions and sitting at new highs. We see good participation in the rally, with 93% of stocks above the 50-day MA, 72% above their 200-day MA, and 50% at 4-week highs. Perhaps too hot to initiate longs, pullbacks are likely buying opportunities in a bullish trend. Gold has modest downside risk and I look for 1980/70 to come into play, while SpotCrude upside has been confined by the 5-day EMA, so break here and we should see a quick move to $73.06. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: UK employment and wages report (12 Dec 18:00 AEDT) – UK wages are expected to increase 7.6% 3m/yoy, a slowdown from the 7.9% yoy pace seen in September. Even though wages are falling, the absolute level of wages still supports the case for the BoE to ease the bank rate in 2H24. Australia employment report (14 Dec 11:30 AEDT) – the median estimate from economists is for 11k jobs created in November, and the U/E rate to tick up to 3.8%. On the week, I would look to fade rallies in AUDUSD into 0.6670. EURAUD shorts look compelling, although AUD longs would be keen to see a better tape in the CN50. US CPI (13 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – the marquee event risk of the week - the market looks for headline CPI to come in at 0.0% mom / 3.1% yoy, and core CPI at 0.3% mom / 4% yoy. Post US nonfarm payrolls, the market has reduced some of the lofty easing expectations for 2024, with US swaps now pricing 111bp of cuts by Dec 2024. With the market broadly short of USDs, the pain trade is a hotter CPI print, where core CPI comes in above 0.35% mom, resulting in the odds of a March rate cut being pared right back. Risk bulls and USD shorts will want to see a core CPI print below 0.25%, which keeps a cut in March firmly on the table. Brazil central bank meeting (14 Dec 08:30 AEDT) – The BCB is expected to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 11.75%. The broad view is the BCB will now cut at every meeting until the policy rate is closer to 10%. Swiss National Bank meeting (14 Dec 19:30 AEDT) – CHF swaps price a 20% chance of a 25bp cut at this meeting and 67bp by Dec 2024 (or just under three 25bp cuts). Biased towards USDCHF upside this week, with conviction increasing through 0.8828. Norges Bank meeting (14 Dec 20:00 AEDT) – we see NOK swaps price a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at this meeting, which seems underpriced. A 25bp hike wouldn’t surprise at all, an outcome that could promote a solid rally in the NOK. BoE meeting (14 Dec 23:00 AEDT) – In theory, this meeting should be a low-volatility affair - There is no chance of changing policy at this meeting, and the BoE should vote 7-2 in favour of no change. With 3 cuts priced by late 2024, there are modest upside risks for the GBP at this meeting. FOMC meeting (14 Dec 06:00 AEDT) – The Fed will provide new economic projections here, although we shouldn’t see any big changes in their inflation, growth, or unemployment estimates. The focus will be on their projections for the fed funds rate (or the ‘dots’ plot) in 2024. On balance, we should see the median projection for the fed funds rate in 2024 being taken from 5.1% to 4.875%, implying a base case of two 25bp cut next year, although there are risks of a deeper change to 4.6%. With US swaps pricing the fed funds rate at 4.21% by Dec 2024, if the 2024 ‘dot’ is set at 4.875% it could result in USD short covering. The tone of the statement and Powell's presser could also promote USD volatility, where Jay Powell should make it clear they’re not currently talking about easing. Modest hawkish risks in this meeting. China monthly growth data (15 Dec 13:00 AEDT) – the market will see data on industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales. The consensus is for a strong lift in activity, notably in the November retail sales report which is eyed at 12.5% (from 7.6%). China’s equity market continues to attract sellers, and we see no let-up in the bearish trend. We therefore watch to see if the data can stabilize the tape and attract better buyers. US retail sales (15 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for a decline of 0.1% mom, with the control group element rising 0.2%. The outcome could influence Q4 GDP nowcast models, which currently suggest the US is growing at 1.25%. Banxico meeting (Mexico) (15 Dec 06:00 AEDT) – there is no chance of a cut at this meeting, but the MXN will be sensitive to guidance on the future path of easing. March seems a likely starting point for Banxico to start its cutting cycle. MXNJPY has seen increased interest and should be on the radar given the BoJ’s meeting next week. ECB meeting ( 15 Dec 00:15 AEDT) – the market will see new economic projections from the ECB, with their core CPI estimates expected to drop a touch to 2.8% in 2024, and 2024 GDP at 0.8% (from 1%). Post ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel’s comments last week on inflation, the door is wide open for a rate cut in April - so EUR traders will be looking at signs around a readiness to cut. We should hear more on the future of PEPP reinvestments and the acceleration of reducing the ECB’s balance sheet. EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (15 Dec 20:00 AEDT) - the consensus is we see the EU manufacturing index coming in at 44.5 (from 44.2), and services at 49 (48.7). Further poor numbers are expected, but recent trends show EU economic data – while weak - has been largely coming in better-than-feared. UK S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (15 Dec 20:30 AEDT) – the consensus is we see the UK manufacturing index come in at 47.5 (from 47.2), and services at 51.0 (50.9). The market should be more sensitive to the service print, so a read above 52.0 should promote a GBP rally. A read below 50.0 should see GBP under pressure. US S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (16 Dec 01:45 AEDT) - the consensus is we see the manufacturing index come in at 49.3 (from 49.4), and services at 50.7 (50.8).
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
1
DAX's new All Time High sends a message to indices globallyDAX hit a new All Time High level, leading world stock indices on this rally and sending a clear message to markets globally: This rally has only just started. As you see on this 1M (monthly) time-frame, with the obvious exception of the COVID crash anomaly (Black Swan event), the index has been trading within a very stable Channel Up pattern since the start of the 2008 crisis. The 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) has been the absolute Support during this time, holding even during the COVID market crash. The recent November rally after October's bottom on a 3 month straight decline, is completing a very rare but powerful bullish signal that has only happened another 3 times during this 16-year pattern (5 if we count smaller occasions). As you can see, every time the index broke above a dashed Lower Highs trend-line of a correction wave, it then pulled-back to test it and after it held, it initiated a strong and lengthy rally. There have been two major Highs on this Channel Up pattern, and those are displayed perfectly on the Sine Waves peaks (April 2015, January 2022). Both have been exactly on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension since the first correction following a market High (July 2007, April 2015). Those occasions that are matched with the current rebound more accurately based on the 1M RSI are marked with a blue circle. The minimum % rise that those 5 events have delivered is the +22.10% of February 2020, which of course could have been higher if it wasn't cut short by the COVID crash. In any case a +22.10% rise from the October 2023 Low would match perfectly the top of the Channel Up and will make a technical Higher High for the pattern. As a result, our target is 17800 on DAX. What the blue-print of the Sine Waves show though for long term investors is that the Cyclical Peak therefore target around the end of 2028 - beginning 2029 is 20500. Those that patiently wait for corrections to take advantage of and buy, will get rewarded based on this historic behavioral pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XETR:DAXLong
by TradingShot
DAX Buy the pull-back and target the All Time HighDAX eventually broke to the upside following our previous trade idea (see chart below) and hit both our 15635 and 15995 targets: The index is now approaching Resistance 1 (16535), which is the All Time High (ATH) but the 1D CCI shows a Bearish Divergence and potential short-term pull-back. That would serve as an excellent accumulation opportunity for an end-of-the-year rally. We are waiting for a buy at 15800 (1D MA200) in order to target 16535. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot
1
A Traders’ Playbook; 2024 a year of central bank easing With a new set of weekly candles to assess, we see the USD looking weak, with the greenback having fallen on the week against all G10 and EM currencies, bar the COP - the risk seems skewed for further downside in the buck. EURUSD closed above the former rising trend (drawn from the March lows) and targets 1.0960 (the 61.8 fibo of the July-Oct sell-off), with USDCHF looking to pull below 0.8850, which would keep the bearish trend intact. GBPUSD closed above the 200-day MA, where a break of 1.2500 takes us to 1.2560. USDSEK was the big percentage mover last week, and we look ahead at the Riksbank meeting where a 25bp hike is touch and go. USDCNH is starting to trend lower too, and eyes a break of 7.2000. The PBoC has made it clear that their preference is low volatility, and they have done a sensational job is just about killing off any pulse in the yuan - after trading a tight range since mid-August, will they now step in front of a weakening USD? The fate of the USD resides in the data flow and Fed speakers – so far there has been limited pushback to the 100bp cuts priced for 2024, with US swaps pricing the first ‘live’ FOMC meeting for May. Many will see this as too soon and too punchy, but the market is betting against higher-for-longer, which is also the case in Europe, the UK, Canada, NZ, and others, with the market seeing the ECB kick off an easing cycle in developed economies in April. Central bank easing is a theme that will be front of mind for 2024, with some debate as to why the markets are discounting such easing. The central thesis is that with absolute conviction inflation is heading towards target, labour markets cooling sufficiently and growth at far more subdued levels the need to take rates to a more equilibrium state and out of restrictive is the fundamental reasoning. It’s when the market discounts front-loaded cuts that we see easing as a function of recession hedges, where a central bank would need to get policy rates below inflation. If we look at forward rate differentials – we look at the difference between 1 or 2-year EUR forward rates and that of the US forward rates – we have seen no real skew for US rates to move more aggressively on a relative basis, which would justify the USD sell-off. However, clearly, the US CPI resonated, and the idea that the right-hand side (i.e., USD data is more exceptional than other countries) of the USD smile theory is losing USD support. One could argue that if we work off pure central bank divergence – which has been a profitable way to capture moves in exchange rates throughout 2022 and 2023 – that 2024 could be the year of the JPY. Life is rarely that simplistic though. In equity land, we see consolidation in US indices, and with one eye on moves in the US Treasury market as a guide, where a downside break in the 10yr of 4.37% would be helpful, we subsequently watch for an upside break of 16k in the NAS100 – Nvidia’s earnings could be key here. It’s the EU equity bourses where the momentum is right now, with the GER40, EUSTX50 and SPA35 in beast mode and swing traders will be looking for a pullback to initiate new longs into December. I was positioned for outperformance in Chinese/HK indices but that has been a poor call and I have moved to the sidelines on that, waiting for more constructive flows to be seen. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: OPEC meeting (26 Nov) – the alliance meets in Vienna and with Brent crude in a steep downtrend, and having fallen 20% from the Sept highs, there have been headlines of imminent additional supply cuts to be seen at this meeting. As we head into the weekend meeting, traders with crude exposures need to consider the potential gapping risk in crude. UK Autumn Statement (22 Nov) – Chancellor Hunt offers the autumn statement with talk the govt will focus heavily on imposing sanctions for people who claim benefits and encourage people to take up employment. It feels unlikely this will a vol event for the GBP, although traders will keep an eye out for any tangible fiscal measures that could stimulate growth. Nvidia 3Q earnings (report 21 Nov after-market) – the market looks for another big earnings report from the best performing US stock in 2023 – the market prices Nvidia’s implied move (derived from options pricing) at 7.1% on the day. The market will go into the report positioned for an upside surprise relative to consensus, with expectations that we see data centre sales of $15b. There will be a strong focus on guidance on the impact of US restrictions on AI chips to China and how this could impact data centre sales for 2025/26. The bulls will want to see a fourth consecutive share price increase on quarterly earnings and will naturally want to see a break of $500, which has kept a lid on the share price on seven occasions. US Thanksgiving holiday (23 Nov) – cash equities are closed, and futures have partial settlement. Economic data to navigate: • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate decision (20 Nov 12:15 AEDT) – while the market is on edge for further policy easing – notably for a further cut to banks Reserve Ratio Requirements – few expect a cut to the prime rate, with the 1-year rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and the 5-year rate at 4.2%. • RBA meeting minutes (21 Nov 11:30 AEDT) - after hiking by 25bp I am not sure we’ll learn a lot of new intel from the minutes and traders are better listening to speeches from the RBA governor Bullock as the greater prospect of being an AUD vol event. • US leading Index (21 Nov 02:00) – the consensus is we see the leading index fall 0.7% in October – some have seen this data point as a precursor to recessionary conditions, so a big downside miss may impact the USD. • Canada CPI (22 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the economist’s consensus is we see headline CPI at 3.1% yoy (from 3.8% yoy) and core CPI at 3.6% (3.8%). The expected drop in inflation justifies Canadian rates pricing with the first cut being priced for April 2024 and 64bp of cuts being priced over the coming 12 months. • US FOMC minutes (22 Nov 06:00 AEDT) – after the recent Fed chatter, notably from Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester (a known hawk), who failed to push back on market expectations for rate cuts and suggested the debate is now how long to keep rates restrictive, it’s hard to see the FOMC minutes being too much of a market mover. • US Durable Goods (23 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for -3.2% (from 4.6%). With US Q4 GDP running around 2.2%, a weak print here could see GDP Nowcast models being revised lower, which may see US bond yields pull lower and promote USD selling. • UK S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Nov 20:30 AEDT) – the consensus is for manufacturing to come in at 49.9 and services PMI 50.4 – A services print below 50 may see bond yields lower, which would drag down the USD. A Services print above 51.0 would revisit calls of US exceptionalism and promote USD buyers. • EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (23 Nov 20:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for manufacturing PMIs to improve modestly at 43.4 (from 43.1 in October), although that is still a woeful outcome. Services PMIs are eyed at 48.1, again a slight improvement from 47.8 – the EUR will be sensitive to the services print, where EU swaps markets price the first cut by the ECB in April and 86bp of cuts over the coming 12 months. • Sweden’s Riksbank meeting – it’s a lineball call on whether the Swedish central bank hike to 4.25%, with swaps pricing 11bp of hikes and 50% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg calling for a 25bp hike. We could see some vol in the SEK, so watch exposures. USDSEK has been in a strong downtrend, so the market is likely positioned long of SEKs going into the meeting. • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (25 Nov 01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 49.9 (from 50.0) / and services at 50.3 (50.6) – we should see the USD, and risky assets more sensitive to the services print, and certainly if we see the index below 50.0 – the level where we see growth/decline from the prior month. Central bank speakers BoE – Gov Bailey speaks (21 Nov 05:45 AEDT) ECB – 10 speakers – Schnabel (22 Nov 04:00 AEDT) and Lagarde (22 Nov 03:00) get centre focus RBA – Gov Bullock speaks (Monday 10:00 AEDT & Tuesday 19:35)
Long
by Pepperstone
10
DAX to get back on the old tracks?GER40 - 24h expiry Daily signals are mildly bearish. Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning. A break of the recent low at 15070 should result in a further move lower. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Short term momentum is bearish. We look to Sell a break of 15058 (stop at 15158) Our profit targets will be 14808 and 14758 Resistance: 15150 / 15230 / 15270 Support: 15070 / 15000 / 14900 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
Don't give up on the DAX just yetYes, the DAX is clearly within an established downtrend on the daily chart. And its drawdown from its record high is relatively shallow at just -11.5% by historical standards - meaning we suspect further losses could be coming. Yet its failure to break beneath the December high and March low has not gone unnoticed. And given it formed a bullish hammer around these key level with a mild bullish RSI divergence, we see the potential for some mean reversion over the near term. Keep in mind that we have flash PMIs for the US and Europe today along with a speech from ECB President Lagarde, US GDP, PCE inflation and a Jerome Powell speech also in focus this week. And that leaves plenty of room for volatility for global markets.
XETR:DAXLong
by CityIndex
Will DAX turnaround today?DE30EUR - 24h expiry We are trading at oversold extremes. Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. A break of the recent high at 14920 should result in a further move higher. The primary trend remains bullish. We look to Buy a break of 14922 (stop at 14822) Our profit targets will be 15172 and 15232 Resistance: 14920 / 15000 / 15100 Support: 14780 / 14700 / 14600 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX continues in the downward move.DE30EUR - 24h expiry Our short-term bias remains negative. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. 15100 has been pivotal. Bespoke resistance is located at 15100. The preferred trade is to sell into rallies. 20 4-hour EMA is at 15080. We look to Sell at 15098 (stop at 15198) Our profit targets will be 14848 and 14788 Resistance: 14981 / 15100 / 15200 Support: 14916 / 14800 / 14700 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA