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A Possibility on Daily - Dax/GER30Been Looking for a break to upside for last couple of weeks. (17/18 feb) when the downward trend line broke. Now that break has been retested and and the mid channel has been broken with clear intent. Would be looking to but the dips and trade with knowledge that we can get a 60% retrace of last leg down. Many may view this as Head and Shoulders pattern too. This view seems to be in accordance with my monthly view in linked chart. Lets see how this pans out.
FX:GER30
by Neel_K
1
DAX - impulsive decline, picture looks increasingly bearishIt's been a while since I updated the long term count. My intermediate bearish view was confirmed in the mean time with DAX putting in a spike above the previously indicated magenta TL from the ATH, however quickly losing momentum and failing also to keep above the 200d MA. The decline from ATH was very choppy, with waves which were difficult to count, so there is a possibility that this big wave is all just a corrective wave 4 in the form of a double 3 (see the blue count - A-B-C, then the red A-B-C up, and now could be just another bigger A-B-C down). The other option is the more bearish one in which we have a nested wave down (a series of 1-2 waves, with the current wave being either a 3 or yet another serie of 1-2). However, regardless of the bigger term picture, what is more worrying for longs is the fact that the decline off the 30th of November lower high developed into 5 waves and took out the September low, therefore cancelling the more bullish counts which were based on the red C wave being a 5 waver and actually not a C wave but a 1 or a wave part of a bullish move. This means that the next bounce (which could be quite big) will most likely be a corrective wave only, so an A-B-C, which would be a nice short opp, since the following decline will take out the lows at which we will bottom these days (or maybe weeks). On the more immediate term, it's difficult to say where we will bottom. We have already 5 waves in place, but the 5th could always extend. In any case I would use the next bounce as a short opp, rather than try to buy it. What is most interesting is that the LT projection from mcm, nailed a very important intermediate top - the high of the red 2 from Dec 30th. mcm-ct.com For questions about the analysis feel free to visit the site or contact me via email at alex@mcm-ct.com. GL to your trades!
FX:GER30Short
by alx13
DAX - intermediate top in or just A-B-C correction?After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range. The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of the move yesterday points to a 3rd wave, which is why I think after the 4th wave bounce is in, the market will resume the decline and take out the lows. On the other hand, if the current bounce heads higher and overlaps the 1/A level at 11.075, that would put a dent on the more immediate downside potential. So short term, I think the bounce could go a bit higher, ideally to around 10.950-11.000. The 50% retrace is also there (10970ish). At that point I would start looking for turn potential and the closer we get to the overlap at 11.075, the more confident I would be in building a short position. Interesting enough, the strong decline lines up very well with the long term projection done by MCM, which points to more weakness in the next 2 weeks. mcm-ct.com Good luck out there!
FX:GER30Short
by alx13
Dax - 4th wave bounce finally over?The reaction post FED was a bit unexpected, at least for me. All indices ramped up (dax not so much actually) and then reversed with conviction. The big question now is - what's next? Is this choppy 4th wave finally over? A look at the daily provides some clues. The peak of the bounce was just above the 50% Fib retrace, while the decline from there looks like only 3 waves so far. If this decline turns impulsive (5 waves) then we will be able to say with more certainty that the 4th might be over. If not - it could be yet another a-b-c before a new thrust to the upper end of the range. The first wave down from the peak of the bounce sits at 10074. If that is not overlapped by the next bounce - the 4th is over. The good news going forward is - the DAX tools from mcm pointed out this crash extremely well. They showed impulses down on all time frames starting in the area 10100-10200. Actually this is what they were designed for - to help navigate a coming bear market. Which seems to be here already. For any questions on that please email me at alex@mcm-ct.com. Good luck out there!
FX:GER30Short
by alx13