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DAX - intermediate top in or just A-B-C correction?After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range. The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of the move yesterday points to a 3rd wave, which is why I think after the 4th wave bounce is in, the market will resume the decline and take out the lows. On the other hand, if the current bounce heads higher and overlaps the 1/A level at 11.075, that would put a dent on the more immediate downside potential. So short term, I think the bounce could go a bit higher, ideally to around 10.950-11.000. The 50% retrace is also there (10970ish). At that point I would start looking for turn potential and the closer we get to the overlap at 11.075, the more confident I would be in building a short position. Interesting enough, the strong decline lines up very well with the long term projection done by MCM, which points to more weakness in the next 2 weeks. mcm-ct.com Good luck out there!
FX:GER30Short
by alx13
Dax - 4th wave bounce finally over?The reaction post FED was a bit unexpected, at least for me. All indices ramped up (dax not so much actually) and then reversed with conviction. The big question now is - what's next? Is this choppy 4th wave finally over? A look at the daily provides some clues. The peak of the bounce was just above the 50% Fib retrace, while the decline from there looks like only 3 waves so far. If this decline turns impulsive (5 waves) then we will be able to say with more certainty that the 4th might be over. If not - it could be yet another a-b-c before a new thrust to the upper end of the range. The first wave down from the peak of the bounce sits at 10074. If that is not overlapped by the next bounce - the 4th is over. The good news going forward is - the DAX tools from mcm pointed out this crash extremely well. They showed impulses down on all time frames starting in the area 10100-10200. Actually this is what they were designed for - to help navigate a coming bear market. Which seems to be here already. For any questions on that please email me at alex@mcm-ct.com. Good luck out there!
FX:GER30Short
by alx13