Germanindex
EUROPEAN MARKET: DRIVING GERMAN INDEX - (DAX AT IT AGAIN)
Incredible Yen hits 17-month high vs US dollar
German Bond yield falls to a one-year low
I noticed sharp rebound in European stocks, suggesting a pent-up appetite for an enormous risk.
Europe's main indices fell as much as 1 percent, Japan's yen rose to a 17-month high against the dollar and Germany's 10-year bond yield hit a one-year low.
The dollar's fall to as low as 107.61 yen prompted the Japanese government to warn that it could take steps to weaken the yen's exchange rate. The yen's push higher, and data showing a 9.2 percent fall in Japan's core machinery orders in February, helped drag the Nikkei 0.44 percent lower.
I noticed a significant jump in Italian bank shares ahead of the aforementioned meeting in Rome between the country's largest lenders, the Treasury and the central bank to set up a rescue fund that will help lift European financials and broader indices.
Europe's FTSEuroFirst 300 index of leading shares was up 0.6 percent, Germany's DAX was up 0.9 percent, France's CAC 40 rose 0.6 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.2 percent. All had been sharply lower earlier.
European stocks have fallen for the last four weeks, and another down week would mark their worst run in almost three years. All these above mentioned indications forced me to predicts the future of DAX ' within the next 1,700 minutes :)
DAX YOU CAN! (2)Hello Family,
DAX has gained even more traction as the buyers kept pilling up and USD creeping up - I see USD shooting to the height of 114.750 within few hours today or by tomorrow the latest. Dax seems to be in a good shape and might hit my second TP @10090 :) finger crossed - but I I recommend a quick TP @ 10027 as well if you will...
Notes: pay attention to the V retrace candle formation, this may occur should market condition changes...but don't panic:) - just go with the flow; if you know what I mean? ( Can't say it here) lol
Remember to set your SL accordingly should you by any chance choose to walk away from your trade.
Happy trading
Dr.
An Attempt to Decipher Ger30I do not know what will eventually happen,But until then, staying the OODA Loop I've tried to take pulse of the chart.
The bullish intentions have been made clear. Lets see which setups plays out eventually.
Would have been stronger if this close was above the large red candle on left. (off by some 40pips)
Hence this keeps the options of deep retrace very likely.
Especially for next leg up to Bollinger mid.(34 MA) which may meet price at the 10000 by then.
This down move likely to be to
- Retest of trendline break
- Retest of MA's 10
- 30-50% retrace of last 3 bulls weeks
- Test yellow resistance turned support zone.
One of the few Possibilities for coming years - GER30I just realized i had posted this chart as private 2days ago. Wish they have a convert function. :) Hey ho.. here is the progress since then. Still valid.
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We don't fully know which of the fundamentals news would be used to drive this up and then down.
However, IF there happens to be such news events, this could be a set of potential price action movement in near future.
This charts is just for reference and will be interesting to see how the market actually moves in coming months and years.
Price action behavior at 10800-11000 will eventually indicate if this full set of move will occur in this fashion.
Though a possibility,At the moment, it would be too early to project the third push with a degree of certainty.
Update status
GERMAN DAX LIKELY TO TEST RECENT LOWS: REVERSED IN KILL ZONEWhile coming in our kill-zone the DAX touched twice the recent 38,2 % Fibonacci Retracment. It is likely to test the lows at around 8850's. (lowest close).
This is just the overall expectation. Now it's our job to find nice risk/reward short entries.
Good luck!
Felix
DAX - impulsive decline, picture looks increasingly bearishIt's been a while since I updated the long term count.
My intermediate bearish view was confirmed in the mean time with DAX putting in a spike above the previously indicated magenta TL from the ATH, however quickly losing momentum and failing also to keep above the 200d MA. The decline from ATH was very choppy, with waves which were difficult to count, so there is a possibility that this big wave is all just a corrective wave 4 in the form of a double 3 (see the blue count - A-B-C, then the red A-B-C up, and now could be just another bigger A-B-C down). The other option is the more bearish one in which we have a nested wave down (a series of 1-2 waves, with the current wave being either a 3 or yet another serie of 1-2).
However, regardless of the bigger term picture, what is more worrying for longs is the fact that the decline off the 30th of November lower high developed into 5 waves and took out the September low, therefore cancelling the more bullish counts which were based on the red C wave being a 5 waver and actually not a C wave but a 1 or a wave part of a bullish move. This means that the next bounce (which could be quite big) will most likely be a corrective wave only, so an A-B-C, which would be a nice short opp, since the following decline will take out the lows at which we will bottom these days (or maybe weeks).
On the more immediate term, it's difficult to say where we will bottom. We have already 5 waves in place, but the 5th could always extend. In any case I would use the next bounce as a short opp, rather than try to buy it.
What is most interesting is that the LT projection from mcm, nailed a very important intermediate top - the high of the red 2 from Dec 30th.
mcm-ct.com
For questions about the analysis feel free to visit the site or contact me via email at alex@mcm-ct.com.
GL to your trades!
Potential DAX trade for tomorrowApproaching the apex of the symmetrical triangle drawn here. I am hoping for a break out to the downside at point 7. I would then expect a pullback at previous structure, and then have a main profit target at strong levels of previous structure.
The upward break at point 6 is also potential for a small trade.