Germanindex
Lobster cake So far as OIL is being under 40 $, I dont see much of an upside. I've been waiting for some magical spike on OIL to boost the markets. . If magic happens and we get it to the 40's , then we may penetrate through 11064 and even 114xx, and start thinking going to the new highs.
Then ofcourse we have ECB that "will do anything to boost the economy" -wildcard....
DAX - intermediate top in or just A-B-C correction?After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range.
The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of the move yesterday points to a 3rd wave, which is why I think after the 4th wave bounce is in, the market will resume the decline and take out the lows. On the other hand, if the current bounce heads higher and overlaps the 1/A level at 11.075, that would put a dent on the more immediate downside potential.
So short term, I think the bounce could go a bit higher, ideally to around 10.950-11.000. The 50% retrace is also there (10970ish). At that point I would start looking for turn potential and the closer we get to the overlap at 11.075, the more confident I would be in building a short position.
Interesting enough, the strong decline lines up very well with the long term projection done by MCM, which points to more weakness in the next 2 weeks.
mcm-ct.com
Good luck out there!
Dax - 4th wave bounce finally over?The reaction post FED was a bit unexpected, at least for me. All indices ramped up (dax not so much actually) and then reversed with conviction.
The big question now is - what's next? Is this choppy 4th wave finally over? A look at the daily provides some clues. The peak of the bounce was just above the 50% Fib retrace, while the decline from there looks like only 3 waves so far. If this decline turns impulsive (5 waves) then we will be able to say with more certainty that the 4th might be over. If not - it could be yet another a-b-c before a new thrust to the upper end of the range.
The first wave down from the peak of the bounce sits at 10074. If that is not overlapped by the next bounce - the 4th is over.
The good news going forward is - the DAX tools from mcm pointed out this crash extremely well. They showed impulses down on all time frames starting in the area 10100-10200. Actually this is what they were designed for - to help navigate a coming bear market. Which seems to be here already. For any questions on that please email me at alex@mcm-ct.com.
Good luck out there!
Resume of downtrend - 2nd partAs previously warned, once the 1st TL was broken the 2nd one comes up fast.
Down trend looks back, but this is still a chop zone, so risk management must be paramount. Choppy 4th waves can chop a lot of accounts.
GL to your trades!
DAX/GER30 - H1 - Bat, AB=CD, confluencesThere are some reasons to thin DAX may go little up, to 11370 - 11400, and then short - to minimum 11130.
1.618 of fibo ext of last small rejection ends at D of Bat
equal overbalances (green boxes)
generally bearish trend - aligned to bearish bat
close to downchannel top line
DAX downside scenarioIf we break down below 11,150, we'll likely see 10,786 and below on the DAX. It would likely find some initial support at the next order block and 161% fib extension of the recent upswing.
Given that Greece decided to bundle its payments to the IMF, the uncertainty around this issue may drive this leg down. Until now, Greece had been all about "talk". Now that real action has taken place (i.e. bundling instead of paying mid month installments), the market may become vulnerable.
