DAX: A quarterly overview.We have seen the current trading set up on DAX during its previous mini bear cycle (April 2015 - February 2016). During that time the index finally broke upwards for the new mini bull cycle once both Lower High trend lines were crossed and held as supports on at least 1 re-test.
Currently DAX has broken above the first Lower High trend line (dashed) and has already re-tested it as a support once. Based on the 2015-2016 pattern, one more (lower) test is due and on a quarterly basis this is not unrealistic as the macroeconomic fundamentals have disappointed (PMI, Sales ect) raising economic growth concerns. The market needs some time to digest these data and re-balance the dynamics.
Once the upper (bold) trend line breaks and re-tested as support, then the new bull cycle will most likely begin. This perspective suits the needs for long term investors who seek safe and reliable buy entries not for daily traders.
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DAX: Sell opportunity on 1D.The index is still on a long term recovery within the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 58.547, MACD = 106.300, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This time however 4H is on a Lower High sequence with 11,400 supporting this fragile set up. With the price already rejected just below the 11,686 - 11,838 1W Resistance Zone, we are expecting a stronger correction if 11,400 breaks. TP1 = 11,250, TP2 = 11,000.
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[DAX] HOW TO TRADE THIS MARKETWhy consider this chart only as "education"? The answer is very simple, at the moment we do not yet know the corrective structure (ABC) levels, but we only know that the nearest support is around 11,000 and Target around 11.500. That said, the potential setup is very simple: Long on wave (B) breakout and stop loss below wave (c) . Unfortunately we can not always use this strategy, but in this case, yes! ;)
The most important thing for a Trader is not the setup, but it's Money Management : Volume Size and R/R Ratio .
The size depends on your balance, while R/R Ratio is shown on the chart, in this case we have a good ratio (>1:3) ... but this is just an example!
NOTE: Each setup can lose no more than 2% of your Capital.
If there are many traders interested in this market, we can follow this index together from Monday, and try some setups in real time, here on TradingView!
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*** "... your best friend is not the market, but the stop loss!" (C.R.)
Dax buy opportunity if trend holds otherwise danger ahead !This is a long term chart of the German Stock Index Dax. The upper trendline was established at the pre Financial Crisis peak in 2007 and later at the peaks of 2015 and 2017. This were good selling points. The lower support trendline is giving support since the Creek Dept Default Crisis in 2011 and fears of a China Slow Down in early 2016. This were good buy points. Recently, the trendline was testet again on fears of a Trade War with China, Brexit and Italian Credit, which presents a buying opportunity als long the support trendline stays intact. Otherwise danger ahead, because of a huge rising wedge pattern of a historical size.
Dax buy opportunity if trend holds otherwise danger aheadThis is a long term chart of the German Stock Index Dax. The upper trendline was established at the pre Financial Crisis peak in 2007 and later at the peaks of 2015 and 2017. This were good selling points. The lower support trendline is giving support since the Creek Dept Default Crisis in 2011 and fears of a China Slow Down in early 2016. This were good buy points. Recently, the trendline was testet again on fears of a Trade War with China, Brexit and Italian Credit, which presents a buying opportunity als long the support trendline stays intact. Otherwise danger ahead, because of a huge rising wedge pattern of a historical size.
DAX: Symmetrical Channel Up still holding. Bullish.The index managed to maintain the bullish break out above 11,390 and the new 4H Channel Up to stay above the Higher Low limit. As long as the symmetry holds, the short term target should be around the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, before it consolidates the potential overbought status. Our targets are intact: 12,000 & 12,100 in extension.
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DAX: Symmetrical Channel Up after monthly support held. Long.The 11,050 1M support was defended and the 4H Channel Down broke to the upside. A price above the 0.500 Fibonacci mark (11,750) is needed to restore the medium term 1D bullish bias to the index (CCI = 24.4993, Highs/Lows = 0.0000, B/BP = 36.1820 already). We remain long with TP = 12,000 & 12,100 in extension.
DAX: Monthly support held. Expecting strong bullish leg.DAX has nearly met the support of the very long term 1M Channel Up (MACD = 230.800, RSI = 44.082) and has most likely made its Higher Low. If that doesn't break, then the index should aim for 14,400 within the next 18 - 24 months. Our TP for the short/ medium term remains 12,000 & 12,100 in extension.
DAX: Still within a downtrend but held the Monthly support.The index remains within the very long term 1W Channel Down (RSI = 37.940, MACD = -255.000, Highs/Lows = -398.7857, B/BP = -982.1060) but held the 1M support zone of 11,200 - 11,400 and we can assume that a last week's sideways trade is an attempt to price a support base on the long term in order to continue the 1M Channel Up. 1D is expected to start printing Higher Lows, which will aim at breaking 11,850 to avoid creating an Ascending Triangle. Our medium term TP set remains 12,000 and 12,100.
DAX: Near a 1M Higher Low and Support.The 1W Channel Down (RSI = 36.444, MACD = -236.700, Highs/Lows = -537.4643, B/BP = -1239.0620) eventually broke the 11,725.30 support and led DAX near its Monthly support zone of 11,200 - 11,400. Those levels are also a potential Higher Low array on the long term 1M (monthly) Channel Up (RSI = 45.274, MACD = 241.600) that started in March 2009. A moderate medium term target would be 12,000 and 12,100.
1D/ 1W Support test. Awaiting bullish reversal confirmation.A very aggressive 4H Channel Down (oversold RSI = 24.435, Highs/Lows = -199.7643, MACD = -93.500) invalidated the previous attempt to break the 1D Falling Wedge (black dotted lines). DAX should now attempt a test either on the 1D (RSI = 33.688, B/BP = -380.9120) or the 1W (RSI = 40.497) support. The 1D Falling Wedge will be on a Lower Low there and the 1W remains on its massive Head and Shoulders lows, in anticipation of the the new long term bullish leg on the Monthly Chart that will in time make the new All Time Highs on the index. Our target remains intact (TP = 12,420).