DE30 - DAX German index ABC correction - Big red week incoming Big German stocks looking for ABC correction:
SAP
VOW
SIE
LIN
BAS
BAYN is one of the big stocks that is not clear. We see a triangle pattern on daily chart. If this breaks bearish then we have a big red week for the Dax
DE30 seems to reflect this trend
next week we will be looking for ABC correction
Germanstocks
IFX has a good potential to go up (More Confirmation Needed)XETR:IFX has a good potential to go up and is showing signs of bullish strength although more confirmation is needed. Before one considers to buy , I think closing considerably with a bullish candle above the green line (17.6 ) is needed as a confirmation .Once we break that level , it is likely to be heading towards around the 19 area and once we close considerably above the 19 It is very likely to continue up towards the 23 mark .It might also remain stuck between the 17.6 and 19 area for some time before breaking above the 19 , so I think one could take part of their profits at 19 if they are concerned but It would be wise then to hold most of the stocks (Unless we close again below the green line) because XETR:IFX has a good potential (Long term) to reach the 23 .
DAX: Sell opportunity if the Support breaks.DAX is trading within a Rising Wedge on the 4H chart which started on March 23rd when the previous bottom was made. Despite the fact that today it broke the Higher Low trend line, the technical indicators are neutral (RSI = 45.750, MACD = 8.800, ADX = 19.431) as the Support Zone hasn't been broken yet (10,225 - 10,165) and the 4H MA50 is intact since March 24th. Both of those sustain the uptrend.
If however the Support breaks, we will take the opportunity to short towards the next Support level. Our Target Zone is 9,500 - 9,300.
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DAX: Profit sideways unless we have a break-out.The German index is trading within a Channel Down on the 1H chart and at the moment the momentum is sideways (RSI = 54.078) within 9,950 and 9,300 (Lower High and Lower Low respectively).
If the Channel Down breaks upwards, then we will target the 10,400 - 10,750 zone while if it breaks downwards we will target the 9,060 - 8,800 zone.
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DAX: Sell target reached. Now strong buy opportunity (long term)Following our previous Sell Signal on DAX (Descending Triangle) which you can see here:
We turn to a much longer time frame, the Channel Up since the December 2018 bottom. Among fear of the coronavirus outbreak, the index has crossed below the 1D MA200 (RSI = 32.658, MACD = -1.310, ADX = 34.677, Highs/Lows = -1.6279) and is now testing the Higher Low trend line.
This trend line has held twice before (December 27th, 2018 and August 15th 2019) providing excellent long term buy opportunities. We believe such an opportunity exists now as well as the 1D RSI is also near its 27.000 Support, which has been holding since October 24th 2018. See also how the 1D RSI is in phases and currently repeating the bottom sequence. The RSI tops before the actual price does.
In conclusion this is a solid long term buy opportunity and our Target Zone is 13,800 - 14,000.
See how accurate DAX long term levels are. We have found fractal analysis very useful in identifying long term trends and their buy/ sell entries. We predicted the 13,800 High back in April 2019 when DAX was still trading at 11,600:
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DAX: Ascending Triangle on an RSI bearish div. Sell opportunity.DAX is trading inside a 1D Ascending Triangle (RSI = 57.402, MACD = 123.300, ADX = 27.184, Highs/Lows = 79.6214) and currently is testing the Higher High trend line. With the RSI though on a bearish divergence since practically the start of the pattern, we are expecting a pull back soon. Notice how the RSI is also on the High of its Channel Down (bearish divergence) pattern, which has delivered a drop in the previous two times.
The 1D MA50 is acting as the pivot at the moment and should be the first Target for short term traders. If we see a 1D candle close below the MA50, then traders may extend shorting (but with the SL lowered down to a profit level) towards the 12,880 Support.
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DAX: Attention needed. Bearish fractal to 12,800.The index has made a marginal All Time High today but the 1D RSI remains on a bearish divergence (RSI = 59.286, MACD = 52.400, ADX = 20.325) within the 1W Channel Up. This pattern resembles the May- July 2019 top sequence which ended with a strong decline towards the 1D MA200 (orange line).
If the 1D MA50 (blue line) is crossed again, we are expecting this time contact with the MA200. Our Target Zone is 12,700 - 12,870.
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DAX: Strong correction. Two support levels.DAX is on a strong correction (short term for the time being) with the 4H Channel Down (RSI = 38.828, MACD = -65.800, Highs/Lows = -254.2571) approaching the 12,945 - 12,885 1D Support Zone. On the short term our 13,100 Target on the previous sell call has been hit:
Right now we are focusing on where the Support levels are on this strong correction, and where is most optimal to buy. As long as the short term 12,945 - 12,885 Support Zone holds, we can expect a bounce any time now as the -5.00% correction is completed which is the norm on a medium term basis (happened in October 1st, 2019).
If 12,885 breaks though, then the correction will follow the longer term norm of -10.50% (happened in late July, 2019). As a result in that case we will wait for contact with the 1D MA200 (orange line) and buy for the long term. The Target will be at least 13,640.
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DAX: Sell opportunity within the Channel Up.DAX is trading within a 1D Channel Up since early November. At the moment the price is next to the Higher High trend line, which is technically an optimal sell entry assuming the pattern holds. With the RSI also at the top of its 2 month consolidation channel, we treat this as a strong medium term sell opportunity. Our Target Zone is 13,165 - 13,100.
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DAX: Potential for 12,500 if the Channel Up breaks.DAX has been trading within a 1D Channel Up (RSI = 49.754, MACD = 14.200, ADX = 21.600, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since the August 15th, 2019 bottom. This Channel Up is however very close to breaking to the downside, having also already crossed the 1D MA50 (blue line).
Last time a 1D Channel Up crossed the MA50 and broke to the downside was in late May 2019 when the price broke downwards after posting Lower Highs and didn't find Support until the 1D MA200 (orange line). If you look also on the RSI action of the two sequences will you see how similar they are.
As a result if DAX breaks and closes below the current Channel Up, we are expecting a test of the MA200 around 12,500.
*Note that this bearish divergence has been noticeable since early/ mid December after that Megaphone on the 4H chart was spotted. So far it has been trading as expected:
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DAX: Sell opportunity within the Megaphone.DAX has been trading within a 1D Megaphone pattern (RSI = 55.442, MACD = 76.600, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since November 6th. This week the price was rejected on the Higher High zone and is still on the decline towards the 13,176 Pivot line which is also where the MA50 on the 4H chart is. This is a possible Support level.
If this level breaks however, we are expecting a full decline sequence towards (possibly) a new Lower Low. The 4H chart also provides a strong sell signal with the bearish cross on the MACD. If the pivot is crossed our Target Zone is 12,950 - 12,885.
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DAX: Sell opportunity towards the 1D MA50.DAX as most indices has been very bullish since the start of the year (strong 1M Channel Up since the 27 December bottom) but lately in particular has been sustaining a strong 1D Channel Up (RSI = 64.920, MACD = 140.500, ADX = 26.747, Highs/Lows = 0.000) since mid August, that even broke (marginally) above the 1M median.
This is similar to the Channel Up during the first half of 2019 and based on the 1D RSI sequence, it requires a contact on the MA50 before making a new High. We have set a target within 12,815 - 12,740.
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DAX: Pull back to the MA50 and then 13,600.DAX has broken above the 2019 1M Channel Up (RSI = 60.402, MACD = 306.500, Highs/Lows = 928.2857, ADX = 16.738) last week. The 1D RSI has made a peak at 78.000 which is the point where last May (3rd) it made a Higher High and pulled back aggressively.
The January - May sequence has many similarities with the August - today sequence as illustrated on the chart. The most notable of which is the fact that after DAX broke above the 1D MA50 (blue line) it always acted as a Support (bounce long entry). We are expecting a similar price action and after a pull back to the 1D MA50 believe that DAX will resume the uptrend towards the 13,600 All Time High (ATH).
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DAX: Targeting 13,600 on a possible band shift.DAX has been trading within a long term 1M Channel Up (RSI = 58.539, MACD = 225.500, Highs/Lows = 732.5857) since the December 2018 bottom. From January until July the price traded on the upper band of the Channel and then it made a bottom on the lower band. That essentially started a new Channel Up within the lower band until now that we had a contact with the Channel's mean.
If the price breaks and closes on the 1D time frame above then a new aggressive sequence may start on the upper band again that should easily hit the 13,600 All Time High (ATH). If not, then a pull back to the previous High (as it happened in March) will serve as a buy zone for a more sustainable rise to 13,600.
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German DAX Primed To Reverse?The German DAX has retraced into an interesting cluster of support which is worth being aware of. Recently, the market has risen into a consolidatory phase which produced a triple top. The third top was followed by a sharp retracement and that’s where the market stands at the time of writing.
The following Analysis Points (APs) will guide you through some of the significant properties of this chart.
AP1) In determining levels where this retracement may end, firstly consider the Fibonacci division shown. These are the green horizontal levels. The range is defined as the vertical distance between the point labelled ‘A’ and the point labelled ‘B’. Clearly, the market retraced as far as the 0.5 level and found some support there. It has started to rise but hasn’t yet reached the 0.382 level again. It’s possible that the retracement has completed as a 50% retracement and the prior uptrend will resume. It’s also possible that the support from the 0.5 level will only be enough for a minor bounce, after which the downward move will continue, perhaps as far as the 0.618 level or more. Further investigation can give a clearer picture.
AP2) The next point is based on the concept of angular symmetry. Observe the angle of ascent between the low at point X and the secondary low at point Y. They are connected by a red solid line which is projected out into empty space. When that line is copied and, crucially, the gradient is kept constant and projected from the low at point A, the resulting line intersects the 0.5 retracement level at exactly where the market reversed in the cyan circle. This is another source of support, adding to the strength of the price barrier.
AP3) A similarly interesting result is obtained by applying a similar method to a different range. The angle of descent is taken between point Z and point A. Notice that this is the range from a high to a low rather than a low to a low. This means the first purple line is representing the average gradient of the whole move between points Z and A. As before, when that line is copied exactly and projected from a different point, this time the high at C, the resulting line intersects at the same point as before in the cyan circle. This degree of confluence is already creating a compelling case for a reversal from the cyan circle.
AP4) Moving on, look at the final upward swing before the retracement. This is the range between the low at D (just before the 3rd peak of the triple top) and the high at B. When Fibonacci divisions are applied to this range, notice that the 1.618 extension coincides exactly with the closing price of the lowest candlestick so far. Also inside the cyan circle, this adds even more support. Horizontal and diagonal overlays from four different sources now are all indicative of a reversal coming from the cyan circle.
An important observation is that each of the overlays shown so far could have been constructed long before the market came close to the cyan circle. As soon as the high at B was in place, this analysis could have been done and one could have been aware of the potential support coming from this area.
With this degree of confluence, it is very likely that this will be a very strong support level from which there will be a significant reversal which, it appears, has already begun.
As a final thought, consider AP5.
AP5) The vertical purple dashed lines divide the recent price action into two sections: the upward progressive section, and the downward corrective section. Assume that the price will continue to rise and that the retracement is complete. In that case, the whole cycle can be thought of as beginning at the low at A and ending in the cyan circle. This whole cycle would have lasted for 106 candlesticks. Of those, 65 were spent in the uptrend section which lasted until the high at C. That means that ((65/106) x 100)% of the time was spent in the uptrend. This comes out to be 61.3% which is roughly the Golden Ratio, phi, expressed as a percentage (61.8%).
DAX Critical pivot point approaching. How to trade each scenarioDAX, as most global leading stock markets, has suffered a big set-back this week in anticipation of today's key macroeconomic data. The 1D MA50 was crossed (blue line) and the index is now close to testing the 1D MA200 (orange).
If the price bounces there then 1D (which entered into bearish territory with RSI = 38.234, MACD = 3.700, Highs/Lows = -272.3214) may reverse towards the 12,500 Resistance, in a similar way as it did on June 3rd when again it hit the same RSI level (see chart).
If however it breaks, then DAX can reach again the 11,300 1W Support level, in which case it will become a strong buy option as the Demand Zone there has been strong. Plus it will be a 1W Triple Bottom which normally makes a Higher High. The only negative parameter on this sequence is the possibility of the wider 1W pattern turning into a Head and Shoulders eventually which after a dead cat bounce back to the 1D MA200 can lead to a Lower Low under the 11,300 1W Support. News on E.U. and U.S. data (as well as key Chinese import reports and the EURUSD) have to be followed closely on that matter.
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DAX: Cautious long opportunity within the 1D Channel Up.DAX has been trading within a very strong 1D Channel Up (RSI = 59.495, MACD = 84.870) since the August 15th bottom, which is currently on its Higher Low (Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This is a technical buy entry even though this time there are more barriers to overcome such as the 4H MA50 which has rejected today the uptrend (light blue trend line). The Target Zone on this sequence is 12,600 - 12,650, essentially the 1W Resistance.
Other than that, DAX has printed the unique Golden Cross formation (4H), and last time it did was in January. After a minor pull back, the index aggressively grew by +8.95% on the next Higher High and +14.80% on the last Higher High before the MA200 broke (it has been supporting through out this whole bullish move). You can see that sequence below:
Currently DAX has also made a 4H Golden Cross, delivered the pull back, the MA200 is supporting and is waiting for the next response (Higher High like we said). If it replicates the same pattern then we are looking at possible targets such as 13,220 and 13,925 (as seen on the chart below), which are of course now appear to be far fetched.
That is why at the moment we only concentrate on reaching the 12,600 - 12,650 Target Zone.
See also below how accurate DAX's symmetrical reach has been since the August bottom:
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DAX: Inverse Head & Shoulders into Channel Up long opportunity.DAX is trading inside a Channel Up pattern on 4H (RSI = 57.000, MACD = 49.100, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) which is an extension of the 1D Inverse Head and Shoulders (RSI = 53.511) formation that bottomed at 11,270 in mid August.
The 11,990 Higher High is symmetrical on the Inv. H&S as was 11,850 before that. This indicates strong bias towards making another symmetrical reach near 12,250 on the next Higher High. The 4H MA50 has to provide support during this run. We are long, TP = 12,200.
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Bearish Head & Shoulders on $DAXBearish Head & Shoulders on $DAX
This is a representation of the German economy,
like the $DJI for the US economy.
Price is currently holding at the trend line support.
A break below would be a continuation of a downtrend
caused by such a pattern.
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