DAX: Limited downside. Strong long term buy signal.With the majority of global stock indices on a seasonal correction, DAX hasn't escaped the pattern and is down -4.85% from the 2019 highs. What stands out is that the downside on this correction is limited to -5.85% (avg) based on the last occurrence of the Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) on a similar candlestick pattern.
In 2016 following the post Brexit rally the Golden Cross occurred which led to a -5.85% price decline and subsequent consolidation for 90 days. When completed, the MA200 acted as a support for the 2017 bull cycle. With the current candle action being identical we expect a similar price behavior. 11,700 will most likely hold a nearly two month consolidation before the price breaks aggressively towards the All Time Highs.
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Germanstocks
DAX: More sell potential on 1D.The index is pulling back making use of the negative global trade fundamentals, but purely on a technical perspective this selling is a natural retrace of the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 56.647, MACD = 122.700, Highs/Lows = 191.3357) towards a new Higher Low. We have calculated this to be at 11,865 on a Support level that extends as back as September 2018.
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DAX: A quarterly overview.We have seen the current trading set up on DAX during its previous mini bear cycle (April 2015 - February 2016). During that time the index finally broke upwards for the new mini bull cycle once both Lower High trend lines were crossed and held as supports on at least 1 re-test.
Currently DAX has broken above the first Lower High trend line (dashed) and has already re-tested it as a support once. Based on the 2015-2016 pattern, one more (lower) test is due and on a quarterly basis this is not unrealistic as the macroeconomic fundamentals have disappointed (PMI, Sales ect) raising economic growth concerns. The market needs some time to digest these data and re-balance the dynamics.
Once the upper (bold) trend line breaks and re-tested as support, then the new bull cycle will most likely begin. This perspective suits the needs for long term investors who seek safe and reliable buy entries not for daily traders.
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DAX30 Index (38% Fibonacci Target)If price drops from 38% Fibonacci, we'll probably see a 5 wave structure giving us a new lower low...
If 50% or 618% Fibonacci is the target, we'll see a 3 wave structure and you'll see a different structure develop...
We'll see how it all plays out, I'll keep you updated.
DAX: Monthly support held. Expecting strong bullish leg.DAX has nearly met the support of the very long term 1M Channel Up (MACD = 230.800, RSI = 44.082) and has most likely made its Higher Low. If that doesn't break, then the index should aim for 14,400 within the next 18 - 24 months. Our TP for the short/ medium term remains 12,000 & 12,100 in extension.
Short setup for next trading day.If price drops below the supporting neckline (98.78 EUR), I will go short when reversal is more clear. Be aware Bayer has performing strong over the last day, so trend continuation is a possible scenario. Check price action and market sentiment on Wednesday before you got short to avoid positive slippage.
Short-term profit targetOn Friday TecDax favorite Sartorius AG underwent a fail breakout. So I will follow the short consolidation up to the FIB level representing the lower line of the symmetrical triangle. I assume that strong resistance may likely hold a third time, so that risk for loss is acceptable.
To cover the trade, I used a put KO 1.31% warrant with a leverage of 7.
Bayer's shares comeback?P/E: 25
Consensus Forward P/E: 14
Dividend Yield 2.46%
Average target price 118 € (28 analysts)
The company's pending acquisition presents unique risks to investors. Hence, share price was plummeting over months. Price bottom was reached after positive news about the Monsanto deal was going to be spread, market strong bearish sentiment (e.g trade war fears) waned and smart money started to transfer money from tech stocks to big solid growth companies like Bayer.
For investors in Big Pharma this might be an interesting company (conglomerate) with several major segments that are a medical device business, a seed business and animal health.
I have my problems with the company's future and diversity, but investors might think differently on it.
Consider buying DLAKY Good opportunity here to see price movement. Lufthansa has dropped by -5.61% since the last trading day.
The average target price for this stock calculated by the analysts is €31.10 (provided that market is in bull mode).
Deutsche Lufthansa has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 8.5 and P/CF is 4.5 (which is better than the industrial sector average)
Deutsche Lufthansa is an inspired choice for value investor!
I don't assess much risk of plummeting, but markets are not reasonable now. So be cautious when bears again dominate the market.
Price might fall down to 20EUR in the worst case (20% loss)
*Investments can go up as well as down and involve the risk of loss."
Go long at Siemenes #SIE German stock monthly demand levelGo long at monthly demand zone around 106.50 on Siemenes #SIE German Stock. Clear big picture long bias with demand zones being created, nothing to be removed to the left at all time highs. Previous monthly demand held very well a couple of retests.
Morphosys AG Longafter a long correction we can se an breakout with EMA50 Support.
Could be good chance to buy. Target over 60€