EUROPEAN DEFENCE STOCKS SURGE AMID NATO SPENDING DEBATEEUROPEAN DEFENCE STOCKS SURGE AMID NATO SPENDING DEBATE
(1/8)
Big News: European defence shares soared on Monday 📈🔥, with growing expectations of increased military spending. This rally follows renewed U.S. pressure (re-elected President Trump) calling for NATO allies to ramp up defence budgets to 5% of GDP—far above the usual 2%. Let’s break it all down! 🚀
(2/8) – STOCKS IN FOCUS
• Rheinmetall (Germany): +9% (Frankfurt) 💥
• BAE Systems (UK): +5% (London) 🇬🇧
• Thales (France): +4% (Paris) 🇫🇷
• Dassault Aviation: +4% 🛩️
• Kongsberg Gruppen (Norway): +3% 🔧
• Rolls-Royce: +2% 🚀
Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defence Index hit a 30-year high 🎉
(3/8) – WHY THE SURGE?
• EU leaders consider relaxing fiscal rules for bigger defence budgets 💶
• President Trump demands NATO allies go for 5% of GDP 🏛️
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte suggests a new target >3% GDP, warning about Russia’s rapid military buildup 🏴☠️
(4/8) – GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
• Russia’s war in Ukraine (nearing 4th year) pushes EU to reassess capabilities ⚔️
• IISS report: Russia’s defence spending surpasses Europe’s combined 💥
• U.S. threatens troop reductions unless Europe meets higher spending goals 🗽
(5/8) – POLICY SHIFT IN BRUSSELS
• EU might tweak Stability and Growth Pact—exempt certain defence costs from debt caps 🏛️
• “Dual-use” infrastructure (e.g., shelters) reclassified as defence, bypassing strict borrowing limits ⚙️
• Emergency meeting in Paris: Macron + von der Leyen open to flexing EU budget rules for a military surge 🇪🇺
(6/8) – INVESTOR OPTIMISM VS. CHALLENGES
• Many EU nations already beyond debt thresholds—3% or 5% GDP on defence = tough choices 📉
• S&P Global warns big defence boosts could threaten credit ratings 📢
• Germany’s €100B special fund ends 2028; France’s deficit hits 6.6% of GDP by 2025—both face fiscal strain 😬
(7/8) – OPPORTUNITIES FOR EUROPE’S DEFENCE INDUSTRY
• Bigger budgets = a wave of investment in European-made weapons 💸
• EU’s €1.5B Defence Industry Programme aims to strengthen the bloc’s military capacity 🇪🇺
• Analysts predict a robust outlook for companies like Rheinmetall, BAE, Thales, etc. 🤝
(8/8) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Investors are betting on a more militarized Europe 🌍, poised to spend big under NATO pressure and looming threats. Balancing fiscal rules with security needs is a tall order, but for defence stocks, it’s their moment to shine. Stay tuned: the NATO summit in June could solidify spending targets—and shape Europe’s defence future! 💪
Germany
DAX traders are not bothered about steel and aluminum tariffs It seems that MARKETSCOM:DE30 traders today don't care much about the announcement of US tariffs on steel and aluminum. In fact, the German index continues to show resilience and keeps forming new highs. But how can this last for?
XETR:DAX
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The Coming EU Recession into 2028, Mercedes BENZ $MBG Triple TopThe principal pillar of the European economy is Germany, recognized as its wealthiest nation.
A parallel can be drawn to the adage regarding America: when it experiences a minor setback, the global economy often faces significant repercussions.
It is often asserted that the essence of "Deutschland" is deeply rooted in its automotive industry, leading to its moniker as "Autoland." German automobiles have consistently been esteemed as the finest globally.
In fact, the most thriving economic engine in Europe has been heavily dependent on the automotive sector, and the initiatives aimed at addressing climate change have been likened to the act of vanquishing a vampire—driving a stake through its heart.
Volkswagen, the biggest car maker in Europe, is warning that it might have to cut thousands of jobs and close some factories in Germany. This is happening because they are having tough talks with unions about rising costs.
The push for climate-friendly cars has really affected how many people want to buy new vehicles, and they are also facing strong competition in the electric car market. The news about job cuts and possible factory shutdowns is causing a big stir around the world.
Other car companies like Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Ford are also making cuts and letting employees go. Volkswagen is planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers and is even thinking about closing some factories, which is a big deal. Bosch, the largest auto parts supplier in the world and a major employer in Germany, is also cutting hours and pay for around 10,000 workers. Even Meyer Werft, a shipbuilding company that has been around since the 1800s, recently needed a huge bailout of $423 million to stay out of bankruptcy.
The economic strategies implemented by Brussels have significantly weakened the overall economy of the European Union. Germany has remained committed to the traditional Mercantile economic model, maintaining elevated tax rates to curb inflation while producing goods for export to generate profits.
In 2023, the automotive sector is projected to represent as much as 17% of Germany's exports. This sector has created over 750,000 jobs. However, German manufacturing has struggled to achieve a full recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, currently reaching only about 90% of its pre-pandemic output.
Germany is destined for upside to 20,893 according to thisWe have seen a textbook Falling Wedge form on the Daily with the Dax.
It seems like there has been a consolidation (range bounded) move before the next direction.
So looking at the indicators and sentiment of the markets, in the medium term it looks like DAX is destined for upside.
Along with the main markets like S&P500 and Crypto.
We just need the price to break above 20MA and we could see the next target at 20,893
WHat do you think?
Daily analyzes of EURUSD - Dollar regains lost positionsAmong the important fundamentals from Monday is Factory Orders for the month of August in Germany from 8am GMT. It is very likely that we will see another contraction that will negatively affect the Euro. In general, the industry in Germany has started to shrink and there are no chances for growth.
The other important news is related to retail sales in the Eurozone at 11am GMT. Although we expect levels around zero or very little growth in retail sales.
Among the world events that affect the currency markets are the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, where mainly the Euro may suffer due to disrupted supplies of both goods and fuels.
Overall, the Dollar will be in a stronger position this week and we at World-Signals.com expect the Dollar to strengthen against the Euro.
In the last week, the Dollar has taken about 200 pips on the Euro. In retrospect, the Dollar had 3 losing weeks, and only in the last one did it regain some of the lost positions.
Use the 1.1010 levels to open short positions with a 6-8 business day closing target.
Mercedes-Benz Group !!! Rewards
Trading at 31.8% below estimate of its fair value
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Risk Analysis
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the next 3 years
Unstable dividend track record
Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotiVolkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotive industry is undergoing a transition to electric vehicles. These companies hold strong positions, but they need to successfully navigate this transformation against competitors like Tesla and Polestar (lol).
Rewards
Trading at 79.2% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 6.14% per year
Earnings grew by 24.2% over the past year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Risk Analysis
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Dividend of 9.77% is not well covered by free cash flows
What's unraveling the economic powerhouse of Europe?Once a stalwart of European stability, Germany's economic engine is facing unprecedented challenges. This deep dive explores the intricate factors driving its recession and the far-reaching implications for the continent.
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have wreaked havoc on Germany's economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has disrupted energy supplies, increased production costs, and hindered global trade.
Rising interest rates and weak global demand have further exacerbated the downturn. The European Central Bank's aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening investment and spending. Meanwhile, a global economic slowdown, driven by factors such as rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, has reduced demand for German exports, a crucial driver of its economy.
The consequences for Germany and Europe are profound, with potential for increased unemployment, slower growth, and political instability. As Germany is one of Europe's largest economies, its downturn has a ripple effect on other countries in the region. The recession could lead to job losses, as businesses cut costs to weather the storm, exacerbating social tensions and increasing the burden on government welfare systems. Slower growth in Germany will contribute to slower growth in the Eurozone as a whole, limiting the ECB's ability to raise interest rates further and potentially hindering its efforts to combat inflation. Economic downturns can often lead to political instability, as governments face increased pressure to implement policies that alleviate economic hardship. This could lead to political gridlock or even changes in government.
Can Germany weather this storm? Join us as we delve into the complexities of this economic enigma and explore potential paths forward.
Rheinmetall just surpassed their All-time high!Good afternoon everyone. GETTEX:RHM just surpassed their All-Time high (Adjusted for dividends). They tested their new resistance at €568.274, which is about 0.8% above their previous All-Time high from April 09th.
There will likely be a small correction in the next few days. Worst case, Rheinmetall has a downward potential of 17.9% to their last big support zone, but in my opinion, this is highly unlikely.
I will personally hold Rheinmetall, as I'm still seeing big potential in them.
I'm working on a bigger Analysis on Rheinmetall's Long-Term potential, which will be published in the next few days. Please check out my Analysis on the Uranium mine GETTEX:CJ6
I wish you a pleasant weekend, see you soon.
German Bund Is On The Rise, So As EURUSD PairWe talked about a bullish turn on German Bund back on June 20th, where we mentioned and highlighted more gains within wave C of an A-B-C rally, which can also recover the EURUSD pair.
As you can see today on August 05, German Bund is extending strongly higher within a five-wave bullish cycle for wave C with space up to 140 area. At the same time EURUSD is also nicely recovering due to a positive correlation and with still bullish Bund, EURUSD can easily see more upside.
Dax 40 Germany 40Just a simple spike and channel pattern, and I'm waiting for the price to move in a trading range for a short time before the next upward movement. For now, I'm looking to take advantage of the current situation. I'll take small profits that align with the upward spikes as I try to catch the small upward movements in the lower timeframe. Hopefully, you'll make some money from this. As always, thank me later!
German Bund Can Stabilize and Recover The EURUSD PairGerman Bund is nicely breaking above important trendline after a completed complex w-x-y corrective decline in wave B, which can now send the price higher for wave C towards 140 resistance area. If we respect a positive correlation between German Bund and EURUSD currency pair, then EURUSD could easily stabilize and recover.
Is DAX showing something interesting for the bulls?#DAX EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
DAX seems to be showing some positive signs for the bulls, however, we cannot get comfortable with that idea yet until we see a clear breakout.
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