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The Coming EU Recession into 2028, Mercedes BENZ $MBG Triple TopThe principal pillar of the European economy is Germany, recognized as its wealthiest nation. A parallel can be drawn to the adage regarding America: when it experiences a minor setback, the global economy often faces significant repercussions. It is often asserted that the essence of "Deutschland" is deeply rooted in its automotive industry, leading to its moniker as "Autoland." German automobiles have consistently been esteemed as the finest globally. In fact, the most thriving economic engine in Europe has been heavily dependent on the automotive sector, and the initiatives aimed at addressing climate change have been likened to the act of vanquishing a vampire—driving a stake through its heart. Volkswagen, the biggest car maker in Europe, is warning that it might have to cut thousands of jobs and close some factories in Germany. This is happening because they are having tough talks with unions about rising costs. The push for climate-friendly cars has really affected how many people want to buy new vehicles, and they are also facing strong competition in the electric car market. The news about job cuts and possible factory shutdowns is causing a big stir around the world. Other car companies like Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Ford are also making cuts and letting employees go. Volkswagen is planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers and is even thinking about closing some factories, which is a big deal. Bosch, the largest auto parts supplier in the world and a major employer in Germany, is also cutting hours and pay for around 10,000 workers. Even Meyer Werft, a shipbuilding company that has been around since the 1800s, recently needed a huge bailout of $423 million to stay out of bankruptcy. The economic strategies implemented by Brussels have significantly weakened the overall economy of the European Union. Germany has remained committed to the traditional Mercantile economic model, maintaining elevated tax rates to curb inflation while producing goods for export to generate profits. In 2023, the automotive sector is projected to represent as much as 17% of Germany's exports. This sector has created over 750,000 jobs. However, German manufacturing has struggled to achieve a full recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, currently reaching only about 90% of its pre-pandemic output.
XETR:MBGShort
by BallaJi
Germany is destined for upside to 20,893 according to thisWe have seen a textbook Falling Wedge form on the Daily with the Dax. It seems like there has been a consolidation (range bounded) move before the next direction. So looking at the indicators and sentiment of the markets, in the medium term it looks like DAX is destined for upside. Along with the main markets like S&P500 and Crypto. We just need the price to break above 20MA and we could see the next target at 20,893 WHat do you think?
XETR:DAXLong
by Timonrosso
Daily analyzes of EURUSD - Dollar regains lost positionsAmong the important fundamentals from Monday is Factory Orders for the month of August in Germany from 8am GMT. It is very likely that we will see another contraction that will negatively affect the Euro. In general, the industry in Germany has started to shrink and there are no chances for growth. The other important news is related to retail sales in the Eurozone at 11am GMT. Although we expect levels around zero or very little growth in retail sales. Among the world events that affect the currency markets are the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, where mainly the Euro may suffer due to disrupted supplies of both goods and fuels. Overall, the Dollar will be in a stronger position this week and we at World-Signals.com expect the Dollar to strengthen against the Euro. In the last week, the Dollar has taken about 200 pips on the Euro. In retrospect, the Dollar had 3 losing weeks, and only in the last one did it regain some of the lost positions. Use the 1.1010 levels to open short positions with a 6-8 business day closing target.
Short
by World-Signals
Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotiVolkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotive industry is undergoing a transition to electric vehicles. These companies hold strong positions, but they need to successfully navigate this transformation against competitors like Tesla and Polestar (lol). Rewards Trading at 79.2% below estimate of its fair value Earnings are forecast to grow 6.14% per year Earnings grew by 24.2% over the past year Trading at good value compared to peers and industry Risk Analysis Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow Dividend of 9.77% is not well covered by free cash flows
XETR:VOW3Long
by Maximus20000
What's unraveling the economic powerhouse of Europe?Once a stalwart of European stability, Germany's economic engine is facing unprecedented challenges. This deep dive explores the intricate factors driving its recession and the far-reaching implications for the continent. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have wreaked havoc on Germany's economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has disrupted energy supplies, increased production costs, and hindered global trade. Rising interest rates and weak global demand have further exacerbated the downturn. The European Central Bank's aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening investment and spending. Meanwhile, a global economic slowdown, driven by factors such as rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, has reduced demand for German exports, a crucial driver of its economy. The consequences for Germany and Europe are profound, with potential for increased unemployment, slower growth, and political instability. As Germany is one of Europe's largest economies, its downturn has a ripple effect on other countries in the region. The recession could lead to job losses, as businesses cut costs to weather the storm, exacerbating social tensions and increasing the burden on government welfare systems. Slower growth in Germany will contribute to slower growth in the Eurozone as a whole, limiting the ECB's ability to raise interest rates further and potentially hindering its efforts to combat inflation. Economic downturns can often lead to political instability, as governments face increased pressure to implement policies that alleviate economic hardship. This could lead to political gridlock or even changes in government. Can Germany weather this storm? Join us as we delve into the complexities of this economic enigma and explore potential paths forward.
XETR:DAXShort
by signalmastermind
Rheinmetall just surpassed their All-time high!Good afternoon everyone. GETTEX:RHM just surpassed their All-Time high (Adjusted for dividends). They tested their new resistance at €568.274, which is about 0.8% above their previous All-Time high from April 09th. There will likely be a small correction in the next few days. Worst case, Rheinmetall has a downward potential of 17.9% to their last big support zone, but in my opinion, this is highly unlikely. I will personally hold Rheinmetall, as I'm still seeing big potential in them. I'm working on a bigger Analysis on Rheinmetall's Long-Term potential, which will be published in the next few days. Please check out my Analysis on the Uranium mine GETTEX:CJ6 I wish you a pleasant weekend, see you soon.
GETTEX:RHM
by henriklmao
German Bund Is On The Rise, So As EURUSD PairWe talked about a bullish turn on German Bund back on June 20th, where we mentioned and highlighted more gains within wave C of an A-B-C rally, which can also recover the EURUSD pair. As you can see today on August 05, German Bund is extending strongly higher within a five-wave bullish cycle for wave C with space up to 140 area. At the same time EURUSD is also nicely recovering due to a positive correlation and with still bullish Bund, EURUSD can easily see more upside.
OANDA:DE10YBEURLong
by ew-forecast
Is DAX showing something interesting for the bulls?#DAX EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR DAX seems to be showing some positive signs for the bulls, however, we cannot get comfortable with that idea yet until we see a clear breakout. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by easyMarkets
Macro Monday 38 - German Zew Sentiment Index (extra chart)Macro Monday 38 - Please review the full report shared prior to this. This is only the German chart in Isolation. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:DEESI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 38 ~ The EU & German ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMacro Monday 38 The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index & The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Released this Tuesday 19th Mar 2024) ZEW is the German acronym for the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, which translates to the Centre for European Economic Research. There are two releases from the Centre for European Economic research we will cover today both being released this coming Tuesday; 1. The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 25 for Feb 2024) 2. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 19.9 for Feb 2024) EURO AREA ZEW INDEX This index is derived from 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the overall European Area. They include economists and analysts from different countries in the Eurozone that are using the Euro as their currency (20 countries out of the 27 members). In summary, while the EU ZEW index provides a broader perspective for the entire eurozone than the German ZEW Index discussed below, the exact methodology for distributing the surveys and their apportionment across individual countries within the eurozone is not explicitly disclosed. Historically, this index has proven very useful as a leading indicator of sentiment for the European Economy and it is closely monitoring for gauging economic sentiment in the EU by market participants. EURO AREA ZEW CHART - SUBJECT CHART ABOVE How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the EU chart is 21.39 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 25 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 month The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -60 in Sept 2022 to +25 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory to just above the historical average of the chart which is 21.39. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. GERMAN ZEW INDEX CHART How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUESI
by PukaCharts