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ridethepig | Green/CDU Grand Coalition Cooking in GermanyA fresh round of poll updates from Germany with CDU/Green coalition in play: => CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% => GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% => SPD-S&D: 12% => AfD-ID: 11% (-1) => LINKE-LEFT: 9% => FDP-RE: 9% We are marking the highs as widely mentioned previously in the 2020 Dax Macro Map: Markets are unable to shrug off risk from Coronavirus and we are spreading into waterfall mode. PBOC stepping in to attempt stopping the bleeding but smells too little too late. No surprises EUR showing signs of marching in the opposite direction: Those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to turn on the fiscal taps (too late anyway) then the logical follow up is EUR long. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:DEU40Short
by ridethepig
3
Apple’s panic, German disappoint, inflation dataThe main event of yesterday, which set the pace for the dynamics of the main financial markets, was Apple's announcement that the company was unlikely to be able to achieve its sales forecasts. The reason is, of course, the coronavirus epidemic in China. The news, in general, is obvious, but since the madness of total optimism has long owned the markets for a long time, investors did not want to face facts to the last - China's problems are problems of the whole world. And Apple essentially stated this. Against this background, gold rose above 1600. However, we recommend buying gold for a long time and persistently and so far do not see any reason to change the vector. We note that the yen continues to remain in place. Although given the disastrous GDP data that we talked about yesterday, this is not strange. Nevertheless, sales of the USDJPY pair continue to be a promising deal, at least until it is below 110.20. The epidemic, meanwhile, continues. According to the results of yesterday, +1900 newly diagnosed and about 100 deaths. So, although the growth rate of sick and dead is decreasing, it is still high enough to restrain China in its attempts to return to a full recovery in economic activity. Another unpleasant news yesterday was the publication of the ZEW expectations index for Germany. The data came out extremely depressing: +8.7 points with a forecast of +21.5 points and a January value of +26.7 points. The largest economy in the Eurozone is rapidly following Japan towards a recession. For the euro, this was another blow that sent the single European currency to the lowest mark since 2017. In general, the euro situation looks worse than ever, so we continue to sell EURUSD, EURGBP and EURJPY pairs. There is still much to fall. Data on the labor market in the UK came out pretty good yesterday: employment was higher than expected (+180,000 with a forecast of +148,000). In addition, the pound was supported by the new Minister of Finance of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, who announced that he would submit the budget, as planned on March 11. Recall that the markets expect him to expand government spending and investment. Overall, pound purchases remain one of our favorite trading ideas. But when buying a pound, do not forget about the key risk for it - news from the fronts of trade negotiations between the EU and the UK. Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it will be interesting for inflation data for a number of countries, including the UK, the USA and Canada. Markets are now extremely vulnerable to inflation statistics, as rising inflation will be a signal for central banks to curtail ultra-soft policies.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GER30 Investors Strive to Break Above Historical High LevelPrimeXBT is here again with another technical analysis breakdown, and today we are taking a look at the GER 30 . The Germany 30 Index has continued to churn sideways above the 12900 key medium-term pivotal support and slightly below its strong resistance that exists around its all-time highs near 13590. The price action combined with the Relative Strength Index is staying strong, but GER30 has formed a bearish divergence, which often indicates that a trend reversal is forming from bullish to bearish, and a downtrend or valuation adjustment could soon follow. In addition, given the bearish configurations seen in the S&P 500, we don't have the conviction to maintain the bullish bias for the Germany 30 Index. Thus, its trend will likely turn neutral at this juncture between 13590 and 12900. A break below 12900 and the middle line of the rising channel validates a potential corrective decline below the 12500 levels. On the flip side, only a daily close above 13600 opens up the gates for a further rally to target the next resistance at 14550, which is a 1.272% Fibonacci level and upper boundary the large ascending channel. Once the price reaches the resistance 1.272% Fibonacci level, a rejection could cause a fall to the previous all-time high level. Support level: 12900 Resistance level: 13590 Day's range: 13361.8 — 13508.0 We appreciate the continued support that PrimeXBT has received from readers and traders like you, and hope you have great success with all your future trades!
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by PrimeXBT
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless. Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram). Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe: Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete: While the Weekly technicals are much clearer: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
(DAX30) +750 POINT UPSIDE POTENTIALHypothetical scenario: (1) Entry @ 12750.0 (Buy Limit) (2) Stop Loss @ 12512.0 (238 points) (3) Target 1 @ 12989.0 (477 points) - close 30% - cut stop by 50% (4) Target 2 @ 13304.0 (550 points) - Close 80% - move stop to b/e (5) Target 3 @ 13509.0 (759 points) - Close 100% Stay tuned for the updates Follow and leave a like if you liked this idea and want to see more! *DISCLAIMER* This post is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute any form of investment / trading advice.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Aqua_Trader
Yen feeds from continued risksThe Japanese yen keeps a path of gains as the Sino-US trade war remains unresolved and anti-Communist protests in Hong Kong intensifies in violence. The euro saw now major change after the German economy dodged a recession in the year's 3rd quarter with a GDP figure of 0.1 percent. The pair price resumes its downward trajectory towards the lower line of the more recent, ascending channel. 119.00 and later if the drop in price increases 118.50 can be watched.
Short
by LimitMarkets
Morgan Stanley warns, Powell & inflation under scrutinyThe current week is full of informational events around the oil market. Which continues to play into the hands of sellers. Yesterday, for example, Morgan Stanley analysts warned that if OPEC + participants at their next meeting on December 5 do not announce a higher reduction in production (current volumes of 1.2 million barrels), then Brent quotes will drop to $ 45 (now the price is around 62). That is, the scale of the fall will be about 25-30%. The chances of a new agreement are small, since countries that are not members of OPEC + are increasing production, so it’s not worth counting on the fact that Cartel members will aloud another loses. Accordingly, the downward pressure on oil quotes in December may increase sharply. Recall that this week we revised our intraday asset position and again recommend oil sales. And a few words about the oil market, but in the context of our recommendation to sell the ruble. According to Saudi Aramco, the cost of producing a barrel of oil in Russia exceeds $ 40, two times more compared with Saudi Arabia, and in general, is one of the highest rates in the world (even higher than in the UK and the USA). That is, Russia is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world for falling oil prices. That is why we recommend the sale of the Russian ruble. Meanwhile, ZEW data for the Eurozone as a whole and Germany, in particular, show that economic expectations are still pessimistic, so yesterday's downward pressure on the euro is understandable. The pound reacted quite positively to the statistics on the labour market in the UK, but yesterday there were no strong movements in pound pairs. We continue to wait for news from the Brexit, but for now, there is none - we work with the pound without obvious preferences on the intraday basis - you can buy or sell it, also use the oversold/overbought time zones as guidelines. Today, the reason for the pound volatility jump may be inflation statistics. Given that at the last meeting of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, two members spoke out in favour of lowering the rate, weak inflation data could well trigger a pound decline. We recommend using this for cheaper purchases. Also, data on consumer inflation will be published in the United States. It will be interesting in the context of the fact that in the evening Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the Congress. The markets are now very concerned about what the Fed is going to do next. The current consensus is a pause in the Fed's actions. But any Powell's allusions to the possibility of an early rate cut will almost certainly provoke a dollar sale in the foreign exchange market.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
US and China buck up markets, Bank of England disagreesThursday was not full in events however we could observe some movements that were mainly focused on safe-haven assets, in which a mass exodus of traders was observed. You do not have to guess what is markets concern about, just look throughout the dynamics of gold or the Japanese yen, you can see is there any progress or not in negotiation between the USA and Sino. Since gold, like the Japanese yen, was sold yesterday, it is clear that something positive happened between the United States and China. Indeed, China and the United States have agreed to tariffs phase-out before the deal to be made. This is a very strong confirmation signal for markets that were expecting the successful completion of the first phase of negotiations by the end of the month. Accordingly, investors relaxed and began to leave the safe-haven assets, which provoked sales in government bond markets and safe-haven assets. In connection with such news, we will wait a while with the purchase of safe-haven assets, since in the short term it is difficult to say how long it will take to work out this fundamental factor. Although in the medium term we remain bulls (gold), and we consider the current decline as an opportunity for cheaper purchases. Progress in trade negotiations contributed to the oil prices growth so that diversification once again proved to be the best ( losses in gold were offset by oil earnings). Well, our recommendation to buy oil continues to be relevant. The Bank of England decided to keep the base rate at the same level. However, the voting results surprised: 7 members of the Monetary Policy Committee spoke in favour of the invariance of the rate, but two of them voted in favour of a cut. Which, of course, was a negative signal for the pound. However, support for 1.2810 has survived. Accordingly, our recommendation to buy GBPUSD on intraday day basis remains valid. But do not forget about the stops, and it does not make any sense to put them largely- the bears may well seize the initiative and take the pair to the bottom 1.27. The euro was not lucky yesterday, industrial production in Germany fell by 0.6% (a 0.4% decline was expected). Given the rather strong downward pressure today, we are more likely to sell the euro than to buy it. But today, instead of pairs with the euro, we will work in pairs with the Canadian dollar. Labour market statistics are likely to lead to a volatility jump. Well, recall that for commodity currencies (which include the Canadian dollar is included), progress in trade negotiations is a positive signal. Yesterday it was ignored by the markets, but it is likely to be worked out today.
Short
by Trade24Fx
DAX 30: Week 43 OutlookA favorable response out of Germany in the last few weeks to the economic and geopolitical data leading news headlines. The German Dax rallied a full +2.38% on the week before settling up +1.42%. This is off the back of comforting U.S. - China trade negotiations looking up. As a major exporter, Germany will benefit massively from a favorable deal between the two countries. In addition, as the largest economy in the European Union, the BREXIT negotiations ending in a good light Friday. The deal was listed by analyst as favorable for the E.U., and plus for German traders and investors. From a technical perspective, we have changed our forecast. With such strength in the market, it invalidated the downside continuation pattern and rallied massively to 12,820.00 The last 3 days of trading saw a range of 12,600.00 to 12,700.00 indicating a correction may be forming. THE PLAY: A close below 12,600.00 on the Daily will signal us to sell into the correction before a higher rally overall. Target 12,250.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by KingdomRichOffical
DAX-30The DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex (German stock index)) is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Germany is the strongest economy in Europe. But in Europe is not very good there are more indebted debtors Greece, Italy, Spain ..., England has already fled the sinking ship. And the situation in the European Union will deteriorate. On technical analysis, showed the wave theory of the Elliott. We paint the fifth wave and after down the ABC correction. At the top showed a yellow line of resistance that with a black support line makes an rising wedge - a reversal pattern.
FX:GER30Short
by EXCAVO
8
Chemical Industry Collapse - BASF Is The BellweatherMacro German industry in freefall - ESI Lower & PMIs lower. Consumer confidence lower, the chemical industry relies heavily on consumer products. China PMIs lower again. Micro 60% of sales are based in China/Europe new orders slowing "In China, the world’s largest automotive market, the decrease was more than twice as high, at around 13%." Profit warning 30% revision. The strategy has been to move into Asian markets but they are all contracting. If the share price is higher than December 2018 and Germany is going into recession, how is the current price justified? "Basf predicts a slower year For 2019, we expect the global economy to continue to grow at a slightly slower pace than in the previous year. "
XETR:BASShort
by UnknownUnicorn764329
1
DAX - Inverse head and shouldersLooks like this is getting away from our ideal entry level. However, it looks a good candidate to buy on dips on the short term. Trade Idea Broken out of the Head and Shoulders formation to the upside. Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Bespoke support is located at 11750. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 11750, resulting in improved risk/reward. We look to Buy at 11750 Stop: 11680 Target 1: 12070 Target 2: 12200
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Signal_Centre
Johnson's insidious plan, US GDP and dollar’s reactionBoris Johnson asks Queen to suspend parliament. The decision will cut dramatically the time MPs will have to take action to prevent no-deal Brexit. he is going to ask the Queen to suspend parliament for five weeks from mid-September. It seems like the Queen is ready to be in. And this means that the opposition will have time until September 12 to prevent the "no-deal" Brexit. The value of the pound has fallen by 1% following news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to suspend parliament The signal is more than alarming. Chances of the "no-deal" Brexit have increased dramatically. And this means that you need to be careful. Now we consider such pound descents of 150 points as an opportunity for cheaper purchases. But with stops. Once again, we note that events are developing against the pound, for now. Data on US GDP for the second quarter will be the main event. Experts expect a slight downward revision. The GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 2 %. Our expectations are more pessimistic. The fact is that the global economy as a whole and individual countries are increasingly showing signs of a slowdown. Very indicative is the data on German GDP, which, recall, showed a decrease in the second quarter. And most importantly, the decrease was due to the slow negative dynamics of exports. That is the direct evidence of the destructiveness of a trade war. There are reasons to expect further deterioration of the situation. Thus, we will not be surprised if the data is reviewed for the worse, but not by 0.1%, but more for example 1.5%. That will shock markets and the dollar will inevitably suffer. Moreover, the dollar will be under double pressure: the reaction to weak economic data will be multiplied by the growth of confidence in the Fed rate cut in September. So today we will sell the dollar across almost the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
2