German 10-Year Bond Yield - lower yields aheadGerman yields seem to be tracing intermediate wave 3 down of primary wave 5. Yields should decrease below -0.91. If the level at -0.14 is touched, this scenario should be void as primary wave 5 down may have already been completed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
Germany
DAX - more than 60% down in 2 to 3 yearsDAX is finishing the first intermediate wave of a Super Cycle corrective wave C that should bring prices below the previous Super Cycle wave B what would mean a decrease of more than 60% in a period of two to 3 years from now. Look in the comments below the shorter term wave count and forecast. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES
EURUSD BEARISH My analysis The dollar is the strongest currency with the strongest economy behind it. However due to recent NFP there has been a significant loss of jobs in the industry over 700k which is to be expected to be more in April NFP this due to the Virus pandemic which slows growth of all economies as its affecting all around the world. Worst Cases are Currently in USA with over 250k cases and the world total of a million Cases. We are currently waiting on the news for Eur Factory Orders which is on Monday. We can see patterns in this chart so i will be going short.
Growth Covid-19 confirmed cases GermanyShowing period of relief in exponential growth confirmed cases in Germany past days; diverging from exponential curve. Hope deceleration keeps up. Note that confirmed cases is a lagging indicator and does not represent total cases of infection today.
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Every man for himself? Downward spiral?LONGTERM
Trade from abroad countries will be restricted (other countries doing the same and this will trigger a downward cycle similar to the crisis before WW1)
Big car companies and banks, who seemed to be the basis of security and prosperity are breaking down
Falling tax revenues but rising social spending
For years Germany tried it's way out of the crisis by saving money
Living only since the state puts billions into saving them from desaster
Jobs being shifted and the threat of a downwards social spiral
Loss of any options for taking action affect the coordination
Negative rates
Dax30 - Watch out for those 2 main points!Hey everyone, we are currently moving in a downtrending channel on the bigger timeframe, but on the smaller timefram we are in triangle, which usually means that the trend is going to continue downwards. We have to look out for the 2 pink circles and make our move from there, the market is really uncertain, so going right now without indication is a complete gamble. The economic and health situation in Europe and around the world is getting worse, so this recovery that we saw on 13th of Friday was just because we had fallen way too much for such a short period of time, so we could potentially continue to recover a bit on Monday and then for the rest of the week continue falling. My advice is just watch out for those 2 pink circles to make your trades. Follow and like the idea for more!
ridethepig | Green/CDU Grand Coalition Cooking in GermanyA fresh round of poll updates from Germany with CDU/Green coalition in play:
=> CDU/CSU-EPP: 28%
=> GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23%
=> SPD-S&D: 12%
=> AfD-ID: 11% (-1)
=> LINKE-LEFT: 9%
=> FDP-RE: 9%
We are marking the highs as widely mentioned previously in the 2020 Dax Macro Map:
Markets are unable to shrug off risk from Coronavirus and we are spreading into waterfall mode. PBOC stepping in to attempt stopping the bleeding but smells too little too late. No surprises EUR showing signs of marching in the opposite direction:
Those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to turn on the fiscal taps (too late anyway) then the logical follow up is EUR long.
Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Apple’s panic, German disappoint, inflation dataThe main event of yesterday, which set the pace for the dynamics of the main financial markets, was Apple's announcement that the company was unlikely to be able to achieve its sales forecasts. The reason is, of course, the coronavirus epidemic in China. The news, in general, is obvious, but since the madness of total optimism has long owned the markets for a long time, investors did not want to face facts to the last - China's problems are problems of the whole world. And Apple essentially stated this.
Against this background, gold rose above 1600. However, we recommend buying gold for a long time and persistently and so far do not see any reason to change the vector. We note that the yen continues to remain in place. Although given the disastrous GDP data that we talked about yesterday, this is not strange. Nevertheless, sales of the USDJPY pair continue to be a promising deal, at least until it is below 110.20.
The epidemic, meanwhile, continues. According to the results of yesterday, +1900 newly diagnosed and about 100 deaths. So, although the growth rate of sick and dead is decreasing, it is still high enough to restrain China in its attempts to return to a full recovery in economic activity.
Another unpleasant news yesterday was the publication of the ZEW expectations index for Germany. The data came out extremely depressing: +8.7 points with a forecast of +21.5 points and a January value of +26.7 points. The largest economy in the Eurozone is rapidly following Japan towards a recession. For the euro, this was another blow that sent the single European currency to the lowest mark since 2017. In general, the euro situation looks worse than ever, so we continue to sell EURUSD, EURGBP and EURJPY pairs. There is still much to fall.
Data on the labor market in the UK came out pretty good yesterday: employment was higher than expected (+180,000 with a forecast of +148,000). In addition, the pound was supported by the new Minister of Finance of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, who announced that he would submit the budget, as planned on March 11. Recall that the markets expect him to expand government spending and investment. Overall, pound purchases remain one of our favorite trading ideas. But when buying a pound, do not forget about the key risk for it - news from the fronts of trade negotiations between the EU and the UK.
Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it will be interesting for inflation data for a number of countries, including the UK, the USA and Canada. Markets are now extremely vulnerable to inflation statistics, as rising inflation will be a signal for central banks to curtail ultra-soft policies.
GER30 Investors Strive to Break Above Historical High LevelPrimeXBT is here again with another technical analysis breakdown, and today we are taking a look at the GER 30 .
The Germany 30 Index has continued to churn sideways above the 12900 key medium-term pivotal support and slightly below its strong resistance that exists around its all-time highs near 13590.
The price action combined with the Relative Strength Index is staying strong, but GER30 has formed a bearish divergence, which often indicates that a trend reversal is forming from bullish to bearish, and a downtrend or valuation adjustment could soon follow.
In addition, given the bearish configurations seen in the S&P 500, we don't have the conviction to maintain the bullish bias for the Germany 30 Index. Thus, its trend will likely turn neutral at this juncture between 13590 and 12900. A break below 12900 and the middle line of the rising channel validates a potential corrective decline below the 12500 levels.
On the flip side, only a daily close above 13600 opens up the gates for a further rally to target the next resistance at 14550, which is a 1.272% Fibonacci level and upper boundary the large ascending channel.
Once the price reaches the resistance 1.272% Fibonacci level, a rejection could cause a fall to the previous all-time high level.
Support level: 12900
Resistance level: 13590
Day's range: 13361.8 — 13508.0
We appreciate the continued support that PrimeXBT has received from readers and traders like you, and hope you have great success with all your future trades!
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless.
Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram).
Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe:
Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete:
While the Weekly technicals are much clearer:
Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form.
As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
(DAX30) +750 POINT UPSIDE POTENTIALHypothetical scenario:
(1) Entry @ 12750.0 (Buy Limit)
(2) Stop Loss @ 12512.0 (238 points)
(3) Target 1 @ 12989.0 (477 points) - close 30% - cut stop by 50%
(4) Target 2 @ 13304.0 (550 points) - Close 80% - move stop to b/e
(5) Target 3 @ 13509.0 (759 points) - Close 100%
Stay tuned for the updates
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*DISCLAIMER*
This post is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute any form of investment / trading advice.