DAX - TRADE TRIGGEREDTrade Idea
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Bespoke support is located at 12435.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 12435 level.
We look to Buy at 12435
Stop:12365
Target 1: 12675
Target 2: 12800
Updates
The move to 12435 triggered our long trade
Updated: 2019-07-09 08:05:16
Trade ideas & daily market report July 9th 2019
Market highlights
Reduced expectations of aggressive Fed easing continued to support the US currency during Monday, although ranges were narrow.
Equity markets lost ground as expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts declined further
Demand for the yen and Swiss franc weakened slightly as US bond yields edged higher with the Euro also unable to make headway.
Gold prices also declined as bond yields increased and the dollar maintained a firm tone.
Oil prices gained some support from Iran tensions, but failed to hold gains.
Commodity currencies were unable to make headway amid a solid US currency tone with Sterling also losing ground.
Bitcoin pushed above $12,000 which helped trigger further buying.
Germany
Dax daily: 28 Jun 2019Thursday's session was very nice and with reasonably volatile moves for profitable trading. Dax first climbed to hit Wednesday's high and by doing this, the statistical probability of 82% to break previous day high or low was fulfilled. A bit later, sellers took over even though we expected them to react on higher prices. The price sliced through the support zone of 12 229 all the way towards 12 191, which functioned fantastically.
In the end, our analysis scored another success point as we fulfilled another statistic of price closing inside the previous day range, which had a probability of 87%. Today, we open with a small ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 344
Support: 12 120
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
G20 Meeting
Today's session hypothesis
For today, our chances are pretty balanced from the Price Action perspective. Nevertheless, it's important to mention that yesterday's lower price rejection was significantly vigorous. For such reason, Dax is likely to rose climb towards 12 344 where we could find some sellers and return back to yesterday's range. Due to the G20 meeting in Japan, we can expect a slower price movement and nervous markets.
Daily DAX forecast timing analysis by Supply-Demand strength20-Jun
Stock investing strategies XETR:DAX
Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: In Rising section of high profit & low risk
Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of an adjustment trend of downward direction box pattern stock price flow marked by limited rises and downward fluctuations.
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed to a strengthening buying flow when stock market opening.
View a Chart with Supply-Demand(S&D) strength forecast: www.pretiming.com
D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: RED Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: -0.1% (HIGH) ~ -0.8% (LOW), -0.6% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.9% (HIGH) ~ -0.2% (LOW), 0.7% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.8% (LOW), -0.4% (CLOSE)
Stock Price Forecast Timing Criteria: Stock price forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
DAX: Limited downside. Strong long term buy signal.With the majority of global stock indices on a seasonal correction, DAX hasn't escaped the pattern and is down -4.85% from the 2019 highs. What stands out is that the downside on this correction is limited to -5.85% (avg) based on the last occurrence of the Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) on a similar candlestick pattern.
In 2016 following the post Brexit rally the Golden Cross occurred which led to a -5.85% price decline and subsequent consolidation for 90 days. When completed, the MA200 acted as a support for the 2017 bull cycle. With the current candle action being identical we expect a similar price behavior. 11,700 will most likely hold a nearly two month consolidation before the price breaks aggressively towards the All Time Highs.
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HDD: Hot Trading & Investing Opportunity Hello everyone, this is something special!
Im looking at the chart from HeidelbergerDruck since a few months, because the company is a german one with a some quality handmade machines. They were founded in 1850 and their shares value fell during the 2008-2009 depression to the bottom where it is still. During some late researches they are optimistic that with some new products and the digital improvement their value will return to new highs. Looking at the chart there is a serious short term trading opportunity in the range price is in since years. But also for longterm investing, if they can do changes with digital products, there are more highs reachable. Please be aware that stocks are not my profession and this is only my view of things. Do your own research about them also (as i recommend always). Wishing everyone a great start to the new trading week!
DAX: Inverse Head and Shoulders on 1W. Long term approach.DAX is on a very strong bull run since its December bottom, maintaining the trend on a 1D Channel Up that was recently broken to the upside (RSI = 71.535, MACD = 158.900, Highs/Lows = 203.0988). The index now enters into the overbought zone and the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on 1W suggests that it will approach the 12,460 neckline before any meaningful selling (profit taking) occurs (11,870 the Support).
As we see on the chart in the past two years DAX has a tendency of respecting its long term patterns: the 10,200 1M Support contained successfully the 2018 bear market while before that the Head and Shoulders pattern (that led to the ATH) was respected. If you are a long term investor, this chart suits your needs.
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Aalberts gaining too swiftly and bounces of channel lineAalberts has been dealing with a lot of negative prospects (shrinking of industrial economy Germany hit Aalberts), so a cautious approach to entering positions.
However a classic resistance line is seen around 32.46 and the channel line crosses that line exactly at the top of yesterday's candle.
It might push through to the green top channel line.
The broadening wedge will finally break and usually it is a 50-50 chance of either direction.
Deutsche Bank Commerzebank Merger Good for EquitiesThe fundamental analysis of this is fairly easy. Mergers are good for stocks. Why? Because it usually means increasing profitability. Why? Because it oftentimes leads to reducing inefficiencies and eliminating two teams that could be consolidated into one whether its with commercial banks, foreign exchange desks, etc. This merger would lead to the cutting of 30,000 jobs in Germany which would clearly help push the mega bank in a positive direction towards profitability. If talks progress positively, expect both Deutsche Bank (bars) and Commerzebank (pink) to edge up. But let's not forget, these two banks' stocks have been in the gutter since the 2008 Financial Crisis and both greatly underperformed the DAX (dark blue) and the Eurostoxx 50 (light blue). More words on this here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
High probability for continuation of downtrend DAXNegative divergence on dax resulted in sharp drop, then a reboud which is now back up to previous support now turned resistance.
If that resistance holds, theres a good probability the downtrend will resume (and time may reveal a bear market)
#notfinancialadvice
Shorting a German Stock, Autos under preassureAutomakers are under pressure. Trump has been alerted by the US Commerce Department that imported cars pose a security threat to the US economy. We wonder what he will do about it. This will inevitably have a negative effect on Japanese and European automakers as vehicle exports play a large role in their respective economies.
Volkswagen AG (VOW)
This stock has been in a sideways consolidation for more than 3 quarters now. It is trading below the 200day EMA and is a stock in play due to its fundamentals. In September 2015 during the emissions scandal in the US the stock fell more than 63%. If the US will raise tariffs the fall will be enough to drop the price to the light blue trend line and beyond. Also the fact that the German economy is slowing, will add additional pressure to the stock. All signs point to a short entry.
Target 1: 140 Target 2: 135 Target 3: Hold sell position until reason to liquidate
Business Cycle vs G3 Govt Bond YieldsBusiness cycle points to lower long term government bond yields. US 10 year yields seem to be the most at risk.
LONG LT BONDS & Bond proxies