HDD: Hot Trading & Investing Opportunity Hello everyone, this is something special!
Im looking at the chart from HeidelbergerDruck since a few months, because the company is a german one with a some quality handmade machines. They were founded in 1850 and their shares value fell during the 2008-2009 depression to the bottom where it is still. During some late researches they are optimistic that with some new products and the digital improvement their value will return to new highs. Looking at the chart there is a serious short term trading opportunity in the range price is in since years. But also for longterm investing, if they can do changes with digital products, there are more highs reachable. Please be aware that stocks are not my profession and this is only my view of things. Do your own research about them also (as i recommend always). Wishing everyone a great start to the new trading week!
Germany
DAX: Inverse Head and Shoulders on 1W. Long term approach.DAX is on a very strong bull run since its December bottom, maintaining the trend on a 1D Channel Up that was recently broken to the upside (RSI = 71.535, MACD = 158.900, Highs/Lows = 203.0988). The index now enters into the overbought zone and the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on 1W suggests that it will approach the 12,460 neckline before any meaningful selling (profit taking) occurs (11,870 the Support).
As we see on the chart in the past two years DAX has a tendency of respecting its long term patterns: the 10,200 1M Support contained successfully the 2018 bear market while before that the Head and Shoulders pattern (that led to the ATH) was respected. If you are a long term investor, this chart suits your needs.
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Aalberts gaining too swiftly and bounces of channel lineAalberts has been dealing with a lot of negative prospects (shrinking of industrial economy Germany hit Aalberts), so a cautious approach to entering positions.
However a classic resistance line is seen around 32.46 and the channel line crosses that line exactly at the top of yesterday's candle.
It might push through to the green top channel line.
The broadening wedge will finally break and usually it is a 50-50 chance of either direction.
Deutsche Bank Commerzebank Merger Good for EquitiesThe fundamental analysis of this is fairly easy. Mergers are good for stocks. Why? Because it usually means increasing profitability. Why? Because it oftentimes leads to reducing inefficiencies and eliminating two teams that could be consolidated into one whether its with commercial banks, foreign exchange desks, etc. This merger would lead to the cutting of 30,000 jobs in Germany which would clearly help push the mega bank in a positive direction towards profitability. If talks progress positively, expect both Deutsche Bank (bars) and Commerzebank (pink) to edge up. But let's not forget, these two banks' stocks have been in the gutter since the 2008 Financial Crisis and both greatly underperformed the DAX (dark blue) and the Eurostoxx 50 (light blue). More words on this here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
High probability for continuation of downtrend DAXNegative divergence on dax resulted in sharp drop, then a reboud which is now back up to previous support now turned resistance.
If that resistance holds, theres a good probability the downtrend will resume (and time may reveal a bear market)
#notfinancialadvice
Shorting a German Stock, Autos under preassureAutomakers are under pressure. Trump has been alerted by the US Commerce Department that imported cars pose a security threat to the US economy. We wonder what he will do about it. This will inevitably have a negative effect on Japanese and European automakers as vehicle exports play a large role in their respective economies.
Volkswagen AG (VOW)
This stock has been in a sideways consolidation for more than 3 quarters now. It is trading below the 200day EMA and is a stock in play due to its fundamentals. In September 2015 during the emissions scandal in the US the stock fell more than 63%. If the US will raise tariffs the fall will be enough to drop the price to the light blue trend line and beyond. Also the fact that the German economy is slowing, will add additional pressure to the stock. All signs point to a short entry.
Target 1: 140 Target 2: 135 Target 3: Hold sell position until reason to liquidate
Business Cycle vs G3 Govt Bond YieldsBusiness cycle points to lower long term government bond yields. US 10 year yields seem to be the most at risk.
LONG LT BONDS & Bond proxies
German stock market is doomed. Long term bearishwithout ECB launching new round of QE, huge debt and slow productivity will weigh on the growth prospects in Euro Zoom.
Immigrants, welfare states and liberal leftists, combined together, would end the long term bullish trend of German stock benchmark (dax30).
Folks, this is the beginning of a long, tormenting bear market.
DAX without supports?Perhaps, Merkel has more problems than immigration policies. However, one of the best by far.
You know I like to keep lines and the old projections on the same chart, so this time is not the exception.
Remember, I do not like to trade this asset.
Statistic:
1.43% down.
Here's the last idea for DAX.
Learn how to beat the market as Professional Trader with an ex-insider!
Have a Nice Trading Week!
Cream Live Trading, Best Regards!
DAX broke the trendline from 2009It does not look good for DAX since it broke the trendline from 2009 on the linear scale. (on log scale it was broken earlier).
It was a terrible year for DAX investors since it fell from its ATH @13577 to 10719 (8th Dec). Now its officially more than 20% this year, and the sentiment is very bearish. Only 6 companies from DAX are still in (+) this year.
Technicals:
- The main trendline since 2009 was broken on both scales (log / lin).
- The targets for Fib-retracements are: 10577 and 8700.
- Support lines around 10080 and 8150 (from Jan 2008).
- On the short-term scale its quite oversold (oscillators) and a bounce can be expected to the upside retracement or trendline.
Main events on the globally interconnected markets:
- Interest rate politics in US and Europe
- Trade war and uncertainty make a serious damage
- Brexit
- Tensions between Russia and Ukraine
- Power is slowly shifting in Germany
- Escalation of protests in France
Dax buy opportunity if trend holds otherwise danger ahead !This is a long term chart of the German Stock Index Dax. The upper trendline was established at the pre Financial Crisis peak in 2007 and later at the peaks of 2015 and 2017. This were good selling points. The lower support trendline is giving support since the Creek Dept Default Crisis in 2011 and fears of a China Slow Down in early 2016. This were good buy points. Recently, the trendline was testet again on fears of a Trade War with China, Brexit and Italian Credit, which presents a buying opportunity als long the support trendline stays intact. Otherwise danger ahead, because of a huge rising wedge pattern of a historical size.
Dax buy opportunity if trend holds otherwise danger aheadThis is a long term chart of the German Stock Index Dax. The upper trendline was established at the pre Financial Crisis peak in 2007 and later at the peaks of 2015 and 2017. This were good selling points. The lower support trendline is giving support since the Creek Dept Default Crisis in 2011 and fears of a China Slow Down in early 2016. This were good buy points. Recently, the trendline was testet again on fears of a Trade War with China, Brexit and Italian Credit, which presents a buying opportunity als long the support trendline stays intact. Otherwise danger ahead, because of a huge rising wedge pattern of a historical size.
Dax is going to correct the downtrendWe can see a clear Wolfe wave pattern at DAX index. Also we can see a divergence on all indicators especially on MACD, that confirms that pattern.
Now the "price" located at the sweet zone and we have a Short term opportunity:
To take some profit => open a LONG position with 2 targets:
1. ±11350 points
2. ±11750 points
I will update this idea
Good luck!